The Antenna

finding signal in the noise

columns 2024.22

An experiment in personal news aggregation.

columns 2024.22

(date: 2024-05-31 08:33:27)


Fabric & Letterforms

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/fabric-letterforms


The JWST has imaged the most distant known galaxy, seeing it as…

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044717-the-jwst-has-imaged-the


Can the Raspberry Pi 5 handle 4K?

date: 2024-05-31, from: Jeff Geerling blog

Can the Raspberry Pi 5 handle 4K?

        <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p><img width="700" height="auto" class="insert-image" src="https://www.jeffgeerling.com/sites/default/files/images/apple-tv-raspberry-pi-5-libreelec.jpeg" alt="Apple TV and Raspberry Pi 5 connected to LG OLED TV"></p>

In the past, I’ve booted LibreELEC on the Raspberry Pi Compute Module 4 in my “This is not a TV” Sharp NEC display.

According to LibreELEC’s Pi 5 blog post, the new BCM2712 SoC decodes 4K and 1080p content just fine in H.264, and supports HEVC 4K60 hardware decoding.

And they’ve tested AV1, VC1, and VP9 at 1080p with no issue, though 4K in non-native formats does encounter frame dropping.

I wanted to put the Pi through some testing of my own, now that the Pi 5’s been out for months, and LibreELEC version 12 is stable.

  <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span>Jeff Geerling</span></span>

https://www.jeffgeerling.com/blog/2024/can-raspberry-pi-5-handle-4k


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-31, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

A screen shot that illustrates. If you’re going to put your name in the title, put it in the first part.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/31.html#a134229


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-31, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Today’s song: Them Changes.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/31.html#a133208


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-31, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Perhaps I should add a new element to the source namespace, the name of the author of a blog, if the feed is for a blog. Here’s why I need it. I am building my blogroll. Every time I find an insightful story about using tech I use, these days esp AI, I add it to my blogroll so I get to see any new articles they write when they post. But if their blog has a catchy name, I’ll never pick it out of the list as I scan for something new to read. I need the name of the author too. Basically a blogger should provide their name, but of course it’s completely optional. I’ll subscribe anyway, if the article is on-topic. I’m soaking this stuff up now, building my own personal firehose.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/31.html#a130243


Tech is about people

date: 2024-05-31, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News

Once again we’re at the beginning of a huge tech-induced transformation, and yet again the people who already occupy a high rung of the ladder of success, or imagine they do, are pissing all over it, without using it.

I remember kvelling about Napster, about how the ability to program my own music had made it possible for me to explore my own life in new ways, because music is inexorably bound to memory. For me the big revelation came on Father’s Day in 2000 when I heard Father and Son by Cat Stevens on the radio and desperately wanted to hear it again.

I had tried Napster a few months earlier and found that it had none of my music. It was basically just a technology demo. I tried it again, and this time not only did it have the Cat Stevens song, but it had every song from my childhood that I hadn’t heard since being a kid listening to WABC on the transistor radio my grandfather gave me for my birthday when I was five or six years old.

I told this story at a Future of Music conference and was torn apart by the other people on stage, supposedly creative people, who cared not one bit about how people used the product they created, and the power of being able to program our own music. They were the bosses of music and my job was merely to give them money and admiration and stfu. They tried to get me off the stage (I was the moderator) but I stood my ground and of course never forgot.

It happened again a few years later at the DNC in Boston, when the journalists mocked the bloggers because we had no experience as journalists, and they didn’t like the way we dressed (they wrote articles about it, in the NYT even). 20+ years later they’re still complaining, but they forget to blame us for their misery, now. Their misery is they forget the glory of their job, which is empowering us – their users – to change the world that so desperately needs changing.

It’s happening again with AI, which is opening up creative expression to people who can’t draw, or aren’t good writers, or people who want to be better programmers, or who knows – this technology is the most powerful I’ve used in my long life in tech.

The difference is – you have to use something before your criticism makes any sense. That was the mistake the music industry made with Napster. What the journalists made regarding bloggers (we’re they’re sources, tried to say over and over but they don’t listen they just like to talk and be admired and our job as usual is to give them money and stfu).

My very good friend Doc Searls sees it the same way. He calls it People’s AI. We’re going to build this out the way we did it with blogging and podcasting a few years ago. It may be our last rodeo, we’re getting on in years, but I’m so glad I lived to see this.

(Sidebar: The people who run tech companies today have no idea how to build new technology markets, the categories they occupy were built by others, now gone. I finally figured that’s our disconnect and why products lose important features when they are taken over by the inheritors, and why the leaders of Google et al have no idea where to put AI for users to build with it, or even that the users build the stuff they use in tech. Say what you want about Jack, Ev and Biz, but they understood this idea and they did let the users lead.)

And btw, don’t miss that it was twelve of us, twelve people, that finally said what the ladder-occupiers have failed to say for far too long about Trump – he’s a felon. We’ve known that, but when did Obama, Biden, Moscow Mitch or anyone else with a name or reputation to protect say the most obvious truth. They’re all powerless and weak, and if we want to get out of this mess we’re going to have to lead ourselves. Waiting for them, that didn’t work.

PS: Thanks to Twitter for increasing the character limit, so I can write my blog posts on my iPad before starting my day. Like this. ;-)

PPS: BTW – here’s the song. Somehow the music industry survived my ability to share this song with you and my future self.

PPPS: I write these pieces with specific people in mind but I rarely say who they are because it embarrasses them. But I write all my pieces the my regular readers, who keep me going, almost 30 years (on Oct 10 this year). I hope they build great things with these ideas, and they let me help them do it.

PPPPS: Doc tends to write brilliant pieces that perfectly describe these points in time. Let’s travel back to 1997, as Steve Jobs is returning to Apple, when Doc explained that while he loves me, Steve loves no one but Steve. 😄

PPPPPS: The motto for the podcasting community as it was booting up in 2004 was “users and developers party together.” That was the thing that Adam and I agreed on. Adam being the user, and I being the developer. Of course it was his trying to be a developer, and me trying to be a user that was the spark that created the boom. We both made it safe for amateurs to do what we do. That’s why podcasting, unlike the music industry, never went to war with its users. 💥

http://scripting.com/2024/05/31/123255.html?title=techIsAboutPeople


How AI Will Change Democracy

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Bruce Schneier blog

I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to predict that artificial intelligence will affect every aspect of our society. Not by doing new things. But mostly by doing things that are already being done by humans, perfectly competently.

Replacing humans with AIs isn’t necessarily interesting. But when an AI takes over a human task, the task changes.

In particular, there are potential changes over four dimensions: Speed, scale, scope and sophistication. The problem with AIs trading stocks isn’t that they’re better than humans—it’s that they’re faster. But computers are better at chess and Go because they use more sophisticated strategies than humans. We’re worried about AI-controlled social media accounts because they operate on a superhuman scale…

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/05/how-ai-will-change-democracy.html


Genesis

date: 2024-05-31, from: Ayjay blog

I was disappointed by Marilynne Robinson’s Reading Genesis, though that may have less to do with the quality of Robinson’s book than with my way of thinking about the Bible. Robinson proceeds by a kind of Lockean association of ideas: on one (typical) page a thought about Joseph and his brothers reminds her Adam and […]

https://blog.ayjay.org/genesis/


Debunking Myth #1: “Economics is an objective science that has nothing to do with politics or morality. Or power.”

date: 2024-05-31, from: Robert Reich’s blog

Please click below for our overview video. You’ll find my fuller discussion just after.

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/debunking-myth-1-economics-is-an


May 30, 2024

date: 2024-05-31, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

After slightly less than ten hours of deliberation, a jury today found former president Donald J. Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in order to unlawfully influence the 2016 election. For the first time in our history, a former president of the United States is a convicted felon.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-30-2024


10 Economic Myths Debunked, starting tomorrow!

date: 2024-05-31, from: Robert Reich’s blog

Right here. On this Substack. Please join me.

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/10-economic-myths-debunked-starting


MNT Pocket Reform

date: 2024-05-31, from: Jirka’s blog

I think this is my last “new” computer for a long time. It arrived two days ago and now is (mostly) ready for use. The machine is new (from the batch of the first 18 machines shipped to customers) and still are some software details what need to be polished - suspend does not work in default setup (she suspend script refuses to work with the installed CPU and I didn’t dare to try suspend it directly, yet; the NVME migration script does strange things).

http://jirka.1-2-8.net/20240531-0442_MNT_Pocket_Reform


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-31, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

On the day I wrote a piece asking why Trump isn’t in jail, the jury returns a 34 guilty verdicts in his Manhattan trial. It’s the people that get this stuff right. Juries are wonderful.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/30.html#a014120


Kino 1.0

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Daring Fireball

https://www.lux.camera/introducing-kino-pro-video-camera/


Lorne Michaels on SNL ‘Best Cast’ Nostalgia

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Daring Fireball

https://www.today.com/popculture/lorne-michaels-laughter-legacy-40-years-saturday-night-live-t2941#


Donald Trump is a Convicted Felon

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Ron Garret

The question of whether or not Republicans will nominate a convicted felon to be their candidate for President of the United States is no longer a hypothetical.  Unless they can somehow persuade him to withdraw from the race (and good luck with that) they will have no choice.  The primaries are over.  The convention will just be a rubber stamp.  And Trump’s conviction will not

https://blog.rongarret.info/2024/05/donald-trump-is-convicted-felon.html


Gurman: ‘iOS 18 Siri AI Update Will Let Users Control Features in Apps With Voice’

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Daring Fireball

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-30/apple-ios-18-siri-ai-update-will-let-users-control-features-in-apps-with-voice


The Information: ‘OpenAI CEO Sam Altman Cements Control as He Secures Apple Deal’

date: 2024-05-31, updated: 2024-05-31, from: Daring Fireball

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-ceo-cements-control-as-he-secures-apple-deal?rc=jfy0lk


Trump Is Now a Convicted Felon

date: 2024-05-31, from: Dan Rather’s Steady

The jury has spoken. What will the voters say?

https://steady.substack.com/p/trump-is-now-a-convicted-felon


Friday 31 May, 2024

date: 2024-05-30, from: John Naughton’s online diary

Up the garden path Quote of the Day ”Being short never bothered me for three seconds. The rest of the time I wanted to commit suicide. Mel Brooks Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news Michel Legrand | “The Windmills … Continue reading

https://memex.naughtons.org/friday-31-may-2024/39502/


Convicted Felon Trump

date: 2024-05-30, from: Robert Reich’s blog

Trump will find it difficult to attack 12 Americans who did their duty under the Constitution

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the-convicted-felon


“Donald Trump has been found guilty of all 34 counts of falsifying…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044715-donald-trump-has-been-fou


clichés, yes or no

date: 2024-05-30, from: Ayjay blog

Amanda Montell: Since the moment I learned about the concept of the “thought-terminating cliche” I’ve been seeing them everywhere I look: in televised political debates, in flouncily stencilled motivational posters, in the hashtag wisdom that clogs my social media feeds. Coined in 1961 by psychiatrist Robert Jay Lifton, the phrase describes a catchy platitude aimed […]

https://blog.ayjay.org/cliches-yes-or-no/


Testing object detection (yolo, mobilenet, etc.) with picamera2 on Pi 5

date: 2024-05-30, from: Jeff Geerling blog

Testing object detection (yolo, mobilenet, etc.) with picamera2 on Pi 5

        <div class="clearfix text-formatted field field--name-body field--type-text-with-summary field--label-hidden field__item"><p>Besides the Pi 5 being approximately 2.5x faster for general compute, the addition of other blocks of the Arm architecture in the Pi 5's upgrade to A76 cores promises to speed up other tasks, too.</p>

Jeff Geerling person object detection on Pi 5

On the Pi 4, popular image processing models for object detection, pose detection, etc. would top out at 2-5 fps using the built-in CPU. Accessories like the Google Coral TPU speed things up considerably (and are eminently useful in builds like my Frigate NVR), but a Coral adds on $60 to the cost of your Pi project.

With the Pi 5, if I can double or triple inference speed—even at the expense of maxing out CPU usage—it could be worth it for some things.

  <span class="field field--name-uid field--type-entity-reference field--label-hidden"><span>Jeff Geerling</span></span>

https://www.jeffgeerling.com/blog/2024/testing-object-detection-yolo-mobilenet-etc-picamera2-on-pi-5


The Green-Energy Revolution Shows What Real Innovation Looks Like. “Fossil fuel power…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044714-the-green-energy-revoluti


Málaga, Spain

date: 2024-05-30, from: mrusme blog

“Málaga is a municipality of Spain, capital of the Province of Málaga, in the autonomous community of Andalusia. With a population of 578,460 in 2020, it is the second-most populous city in Andalusia and the sixth most populous in the country. It lies in Southern Iberia on the Costa del Sol of the Mediterranean, primarily in the left bank of the Guadalhorce. The urban core originally developed in the space between the Gibralfaro Hill and the Guadalmedina.”

https://xn--gckvb8fzb.com/travel/spain/malaga/


The trailer for Wolfs, an action-comedy flick starring George Clooney and Brad…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044708-the-trailer-for-wolfs-an


The Talking Piano

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/the-talking-piano


AI Is a False God. “The idea that AI will lead us…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044711-ai-is-a-false-god


The Purpose of a System Is What It Does. “Driving change requires…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044712-the-purpose-of-a-system


“Planet of the Apes” Goes to a 70s Mall

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/planet-of-the-apes-goes-to-a-70s-mall


May 29, 2024

date: 2024-05-30, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-29-2024-9c2


Here’s a behind-the-scenes of Ayo Edebiri doing the voice for the Envy…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044706-heres-a-behind-the-scenes


One Heck Of A Halvening

date: 2024-05-30, from: David Rosenthal’s blog

The fundamental idea behind Bitcoin is that, if you restrict the supply of something, its price will rise. That is why the system arranges that there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin by halving the reward paid for mining the next block every 210,000 blocks (about every four years), an event called the “halvening” (or more recently just the halving). It is an article of faith among the crypto-bros that, after the halvening, the price will rise. For example:
In the image below, the vertical blue lines indicate the previous three halvings (2012-11-28, 2016-7-9, and 2020-5-11). Note how the price has jumped significantly after each halving.
Source
The most recent halvening happened on Friday, April 19th. It was eagerly awaited so, six weeks later, it is time to go below the fold and look at the effects.

Before

Lets start back in October when the Bitcoin “price” was in the high $20Ks. This was a problem, because only the most efficient miners could make a profit at that “price”. They could look out six months to see the looming halvening, which would mean that even the most efficient, with their income halved, would be losing a lot of money. Something needed to be done. By April the price needed to be at least in the mid $50Ks, or the Bitcoin mining industry would suffer a bloodbath.

Date USDT Change BTC Change
  109 109 $103 $103
10/01/23 83.26 0.38 27,976 2,175
11/01/23 84.92 1.66 35.442 7.466
12/01/23 89.54 4.62 38.689 3,247
01/01/24 91.74 2.20 44.187 5,498
02/01/24 96.21 4.47 43.077 -1,110
03/01/24 99.26 3.05 62.432 19,355
04/01/24 104.70 5.44 69.705 7,273
04/17/24 109.03 4.33 61,275 -8,430
Coincidentally, October was when Tether started printing USDT at a rate only before seen during the heady days of 2021. At the start of October there were 83B USDT, by the halvening there were 110B, 32.5% more.

The extra supply of 27B USDT, whose primary function is to buy cryptocurrency, certainly created demand for Bitcoin, whose supply over the same period increased by only 0.95%. This excess of demand over supply, as the crypto-bros would have predicted increased the price. But by 149%, which might have been more than they predicted. Note that it peaked at $73,094 on March 13th, 35 days before the halvening, and has trended lower since.

Source
This huge pump in the BTC “price” meant that the most efficient miners’s margins went from scant to extortionate, and sucked in a whole lot of mining rigs that had been turned off as being uneconomic. In the graph of the 30-day moving average hash rate, the rate of increase is lower until around the start of the pump in October, then it increases as the pump takes hold. The earlier rate may represent the rate at which Bitmain can ship the latest rigs, the additional later rate probably represents re-activated older rigs.

David Pan’s Bitcoin Miners Power Up Rigs to Record Levels Ahead of ‘Halving’ reported the mining surge a week before the halvening:
Bitcoin mining companies are boosting their cash reserves to cope with the negative impact from the halving through a variety of channels including running their operations at full capacity or expanding them to produce and sell more coins amid soaring Bitcoin prices in the latest rally.
Source
Omkar Godbole’s Crypto Miners Run Down Bitcoin Inventory to 3-Year Low in a Strategic Pre-Halving Move had more detail on how they were “boosting their cash reserves”:
The number of bitcoin held by miners … declined to 1.794 million BTC this week, the lowest since early 2021, according to data source CoinMetrics.

The so-called miner balance has fallen by 27,000 since November, implying steady selling in the months leading up to the quadrennial mining reward halving.

The rally has allowed miners to take profits at higher prices and fund equipment upgrades to prepare for the reduced rewards rate, according to algorithmic trading firm Wintermute.

“With miners’ holdings still near an all-time high in USD terms ($124 billion), this sell-off appears to be a strategic move for profit-taking and operational upgrades, marking a behavioral change from the last cycle,” Wintermute said in a weekly newsletter.
Some miners, having ridden the hype around the halvening and cashed in their winnings, have pivoted to the probably more durable AI hype, as David Pan reported in Bitcoin Miner Core Scientific Converts Data Infrastructure for AI:
The Austin, Texas-based company deployed 16-megawatt data-center capacity for AI startup CoreWeave Inc. and plans to convert more going forward. The move comes amid a slump in Bitcoin mining revenue and growing demand for data centers to host graphics processing units to power AI applications.

After

Date USDT Change BTC Change
  109 109 $103 $103
04/19/24 109.78 0.75 63,851 2,576
04/26/24 110.52 0.74 63,750 -377
05/03/24 110.83 0.31 62,891 -859
05/10/24 110.83 0.00 60,793 -2098
05/17/24 111.39 0.56 63,066 2,273
05/24/24 111.92 0.53 63,526 460
What has happened since the halvening? Ten days after the event that was supposed to send the BTC “price” soaring Sidhartha Shukla wrote in Bitcoin Faces Worst Month Since FTX Crash With ETF Demand Cooling:
The much-anticipated Bitcoin halving, a quadrennial event that reduces the supply of new coins in the market and historically acted as a price tailwind, had minimal impact since it happened on April 19.

Source
As the table shows, the flood of new Tethers dried up, and so the BTC price trended down. And, as Olga Kharif reported three weeks later, Trading on Crypto Exchanges Fell for First Time in Seven Months:
Spot trading volume on so-called centralized exchanges such as Coinbase Global, Binance and Kraken tumbled 32.6% to $2 trillion last month, according to data from researcher CCData. Derivatives trading volume also declined for the first time in seven months, falling by 26.1% to $4.57 trillion.
Kharif’s graph shows the trading frenzy triggered by the flood of new Tethers peaking in March.

Source
As might have been expected, halving the miners’ income even from its pumped-up level has started to force the less efficient players out. The hash rate graph is extremely noisy, with routine daily swings of more than 20%, but the graph of the 30-day moving average hash rate shows that it peaked about a week after the halvening, and a week later started a downward trend.

It isn’t just that the miners’ income has been halved. It is also that their costs are rising, as David Pan’s Bitcoin ‘Halving’ Will Deal a $10 Billion Blow to Crypto Miners explains:
“Power in the US is extraordinarily constrained,” said Adam Sullivan, chief executive officer at Austin, Texas-based Core Scientific Inc., one of the largest public Bitcoin mining companies. “Right now, miners are competing against some of the largest tech companies in the world, who are trying to find space for data centers, which are high energy consumers too.”

The nascent AI industry is drawing in massive amounts of capital, which is making it harder for miners to secure favorable electricity rates with utility companies. Amazon.com Inc. is set to spend almost $150 billion on data centers, while Blackstone is building a $25 billion empire of centers. Google Inc. and Microsoft Corp. are also making hefty investments.

“The artificial intelligence crowd is willing to pay three or four times what Bitcoin miners were paying last year” for electricity, said David Foley, co-managing partner at Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, which has made investments in both public and private miners. That is happening across the globe, he said.
Of course, if the miners’ break-even last year was around BTC=$25K, the halvening would put it at $50K. So now, at around $67K, the miners can afford to pay more for power, but not “three or four times” more. Pan points out another problem for the miners:
The tech giants also have an edge in acquiring power from utilities, given their consistent revenue stream, whereas crypto mining revenue fluctuates with the rise and fall in Bitcoin prices. Utilities consider tech companies as more reliable purchasers given their strong balance sheets, said Taras Kulyk, CEO at crypto-mining services provider SunnyDigital.

With that competition in place, low-cost power contracts could be tougher to renew when existing agreements expire. Large-scale Bitcoin miners tend to lock in energy prices, typically for a few years, said Greg Beard, CEO of public Bitcoin miner Stronghold Digital Mining Inc.

Transaction Fees

Source
One might have expected a gradual decrease in the hash rate to start as soon as the supply of mining rewards was halved. Why did miners increase the hash rate after their block reward was halved? The answer is that there was a massive spike in transaction fees. A week before the average fee had been $2.82. The day before the average fee was $19.09. On halvening day the average fee was $127, a 565% rise. A week later it was $4.42. These massive fee spikes caused when everyone wants to transact are inevitable given that Bitcoin is limited to around 7 transactions per second.

Source
The day of the halvening the miners made a total of $108M. This bonanza completely reversed the normal state of the Bitcoin blockchain, in which transactions are around 95% subsidized by inflating the currency with block rewards, to a state in which the block reward was less than 20% of the miners’ income. As I discussed in Fee-Only Bitcoin, this is close to the state Bitcoin will be in all the time after three more halvenings in 2036. I predict that the average fee then will be around $90/transaction, and that spikes could easily exceed $540/transaction.

The explanation for the spike in fees lies in something else that deliberately coincided with the halvening which caused a huge surge in demand for transactions. Joel Agbo’s What Are Bitcoin Runes? Bringing Memecoins to Bitcoin explains:
Casey Rodarmor, the creator of the Ordinals protocol that lets users create NFT-like inscriptions on the Bitcoin blockchain, is releasing Runes, a new protocol that lets users easily create tokens on top of Bitcoin like Solana and Ethereum. While the BRC-20 and SRC-20 token standards already exist, these are based on Ordinals theory, which can result in UTXO proliferation that spam Bitcoin,

In an attempt to create a healthier way of etching tokens on the Bitcoin network, Rodarmor announced Runes in September 2023 and has been working on this since then. As the protocol nears its launch date, there is an increase in interest around Runes and what it could mean for Bitcoin.
“Creating a good fungible token protocol for Bitcoin might bring significant transaction fee revenue, developer mindshare, and users to Bitcoin.”
  • Casey Rodarmor, creator of Runes
Bitcoin Runes launchedon Block 840,000, following the Bitcoin halving in April 2024. The creator does not impact Bitcoin, although it adds to the excitement that follows the fourth Bitcoin halving. Rodarmor states that Bitcoin Runes’ simplicity and overall architecture will aid the primary reason for its development – the creation of fungible tokens on the Bitcoin blockchain.
TheMinerMag’s Bitcoin Miners Bag $109M in Halving Day Rewards as Hashprice Soars to Two-Year Highs summarizes what happened:
The soaring transaction fees resulted from on-chain users rushing to create meme-like tokens on bitcoin using the Rune protocol, which is similar to the ERC-20 standard for creating tokens on Ethereum.

Although tokens created on Rune are fungible, the values are subject to speculations on various measures such as how early they were created, the uniqueness and quality of their symbols, and the potential of being listed on exchanges.

According to a Rune explorer, 1,750 Rune projects have been created as of writing, or as the protocol terms it, “etched.” For instance, some of the early “etched” projects are called “MASSIVE•PILE•OF•SHIT” or “DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON

Because the protocol utilizes bitcoin’s UTXO (unspent transaction output) model, it creates a mechanism where a user’s transaction for a token issuance will first enter bitcoin’s mempool and will be successfully created after the transaction is confirmed.

As bitcoin influencer Jimmy Song put it here, explaining the current fee market dynamics, this mechanism also creates room for “squatters” to snipe a user’s creation by outbidding them using a higher fee.

“Whichever comes first gets the symbol and the asset issuance. But if you want to squat on a good symbol name, you can just look for mempool transactions that are attempting to create a new asset and create your own with a bigger fee,” Song wrote.
Source
This is another form of Miner’s Extractable Value in Ethereum. But the sugar high didn’t last, as Muyao Shen and María Paula Mijares Torres reported in Bitcoin Miner Boosting Memecoins Allure Already Begins to Wane:
Just as the April 19 “halving” reduced the amount of tokens awarded to miners for validating transactions, network transaction fees jumped as users rushed to mint the speculative coins on Bitcoin for the first time. The process is enabled by the Rune protocol, through which people can create their own fungible tokens. Dune Analytics’ data shows that the total transactions in Runes dropped to around 45,700 on Monday from its peak at above 750,000 on April 23.

Since the protocol launch, Runes have generated 2,169 Bitcoin, or approximately $137 million, in fees, according to data compiled by Dune Analytics user cryptokoryo. The share of transactions related to Runes peaked on April 23, where it counted for 81% of all Bitcoin transactions.

$139M in 9 days to the miners for 71,381 memecoins, whose “market cap” according to runealpha.xyz is 55,765BTC ($3.8B) down 99.4%). If that is right, at one point the runes were “worth” $635B! What an amazing innovation that creates $635B out of thin air in a few days!

Tether

There are two possible, not mutually exclusive, reasons for the flood of 27B USDT:
  1. Speculators, believing that the halvening would send BTC moonwards, bought 27B newly created USDT with $27B USD. They used the 27B USDT to buy BTC, more than doubling the “price”.
  2. Holders of BTC pledged it as collateral for loans of 27B newly created USDT from Tether. They used the 27B USDT to buy BTC, more than doubling the “price”. They then sold half the newly doubled BTC for USDT, with which they repaid the loan. At the peak anyone who bought BTC between the beginning of the pump and November 11th November had more than doubled their money.
Case B is Tether’s “magic money pump”; I wrote about it in 2020’s Stablecoins pointing out that, among other research:
Is Bitcoin Really Untethered? by John Griffin and Amit Shams shows that:
Rather than demand from cash investors, these patterns are most consistent with the supply‐based hypothesis of unbacked digital money inflating cryptocurrency prices.
Their paper was originally published in 2018 and updated in 2019 and 2020.
Ponzi Funds by Philippe van der Beck, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud and Dario Villamaina describe a similar “magic money pump” in certain mutual funds whose holdings are concentrated, as BTC hodlers’ are:
Flow-driven trading in these securities causes price pressure, which pushes up the funds’ existing positions resulting in realized returns. We decompose fund returns into a price pressure (self-inflated) and a fundamental component and show that when allocating capital across funds, investors are unable to identify whether realized returns are self-inflated or fundamental. Because investors chase self-inflated fund returns at a high frequency, even short-lived impact meaningfully affects fund flows at longer time scales. The combination of price impact and return chasing causes an endogenous feedback loop and a reallocation of wealth to early fund investors, which unravels once the price pressure reverts.
This effect mirrors that in Bitcoin. If, for example by wash trading or borrowing loan-backed USDT, HODL-ers can start a BTC price spike other speculators will join in and thus create an “endogenous feedback loop”. In ETFs, van der Beck et al estimate that this effect reallocates $500M/day to earlier investors.

I returned to the idea of “magic money pumps” in 2021’s Stablecoins Part 2 as news came out that the DoJ had a criminal investigation into Tether. Now, Amy Castor and David Gerard’s Tether and sanctions: what’s coming for Paolo’s beautiful launderette discuss law enforcement’s increasing pressure on Tether because of its use in rampant sanctions evasion. They list Islamic Jihad, Hamas, Venezuela’s oil industry and Russia’s war on Ukraine as being funded via Tether:
Chainalysis found that stablecoins like Tether were used in the vast majority of crypto-based scam transactions and sanctions evasion in 2023.

TRM Labs concurred, saying that Tether was the most used stablecoin in illicit crypto flows in 2023. Tether on the Tron blockchain in particular had “cemented its position as the currency of choice for use by terrorist financing entities.”

https://blog.dshr.org/2024/05/one-heck-of-halvening.html


Bill McKibben reviews an exhibition with “images of climate change that cannot…

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044707-bill-mckibben-reviews-an-


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-30, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

BTW, I’ve noticed that Google often doesn’t link to the Wikipedia page unless you specifically ask for it. I don’t like that. I think it should always be at the top.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/30.html#a143314


Trailer for Season Three of The Bear

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-30, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/trailer-for-season-three-of-the-bear


Biden: Why isn’t Trump in jail?

date: 2024-05-30, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News

Biden would be a fine president if our problems were limited to the virus, the economy and climate change.

He’s like Obama, but with much more experience at getting things done in Washington.

His failure is that the fascist movement in the country is much stronger now than it was when he took office.

Are we better off than we were four years ago? No, sadly we are worse off. Trump is a much bigger threat now.

Biden is a fine LBJ-like president. And like LBJ, he has his Vietnam. Biden’s war he can’t end is called Trump. Trump isn’t in jail. That’s the failure right there.

The problem could be fixed if we had this discussion out in the open, so that the press raises it every day and in every press event. They shouldn’t be trying to embarrass him about his age, that’s rude and deceptive, instead they should ask why isn’t Trump in jail?

If Biden wanted to address this, and it would certainly help his chances of winning, he would:

Trump is making a fool of Biden by saying openly that he will be a dictator on Day 1.

People who think Trump is losing don’t get it. People are rightly fed up with Biden. But not for the economy. That’s bullshit. And not because he’s old. Rather because he’s selling us out, just hoping against hope that the voters will save us. It’s kind of unreasonable to expect that when you, the person we elected president to get us out of this hole, didn’t fire the biggest obstacle to our starting to dig.

Depend on Congress, the press, the courts, now the voters.

No Biden, you’re the president. This is your job.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/30/134935.html?title=bidenWhyIsntTrumpInJail


2024-05-23 Death and dying

date: 2024-05-30, from: Alex Schroeder’s Blog

2024-05-23 Death and dying

This is the first time somebody is dying in my close family where I am old enough to be an adult about it.

One of my sisters died when I was about twenty. I was living in Switzerland with my dad, and it was terrible to hear my mom crying at the phone, practically unable to tell me what had happened, to then see my father confused, shocked. I booked a flight for him but didn’t go myself. My mom was living in Portugal with my two sisters. I wasn’t there for my sister’s burial. People had to be buried within 48 hours, back then. I don’t know how things are now. There was school and stuff and I had not lived with my sisters for a few years. I didn’t feel very close. It just felt weird. I didn’t know what it was supposed to mean.

Now, thirty years later, my stepfather is dying. His kidneys are failing, his liver is failing, his lungs are filling up with water, his heart is failing; they can’t give him his heart medication because the kidneys are at their limits, can’t have him move around because he’s weak, and so he’s breaking down. I mean, he’s calm, he knows what’s happening, and he’s very, very tired. He’s ready to go.

I think that in my heart, I know that this is how it works. We have to go one day. I don’t want to spend the last hours hooked up to machines. I’ll be very, very tired. I’ll just want to go home. I also won’t want anybody around me to be sad. Hopefully, I’ll feel that I lived a good life, that I had a good time, that the people I spend my time with were decent people, worthy of the short time I was given. I hope that I will be able to let go and be at peace. It’s what I hear about my stepfather.

But when I sit in that family video call, with siblings in Portugal and Germany and my, and my mother, and one after another people start crying, choking up, it’s hard. It’s a that invisible choker, grabbing us, one after another.

I need to remember the good times, the conversations we had, the laughter we shared. I need to book a flight and see the rest of our family. All that independence and all that living abroad is coming back to haunt us, now.

To go and support each other.

Go and hug your loved ones.

#Family

2024-05-27. I arrived today. He didn’t look good at all. In fact, he seemed to be barely holding on to life. Sleeping, mostly. Occasionally, gasping for air, staring, maybe recognizing us, saying a word or two. It was heartbreaking. He died the same day. The doctor and the nurse came, two very friendly people. Removed the tubes, stopped the Morphium machine, made his death official.

There were so many tears. A step brother, a half-brother, a half-sister, my sister, my half-brother’s wife, their kid, my mom… the kid was the only one that seemed unperturbed. “Don’t be sad, grandma!”

Later the funerary services came to pick up the body. Again, both of them super nice. We’ll see how things go, tomorrow. My mother is not feeling well. I seem to be doing OK. I can be strong when it’s not my partner that has died.

I’m happy we were all there for him, singing songs, bringing him his birthday cake (he died on his 78th birthday). I’m happy we were all there for each other.

2024-05-28. Cremation today. The sun is out. People on the radio.

2024-05-30. On the way home. It was good to see the family again. I gave a little speech in Portuguese, explaining how the language continues to remain important to us, even if we live a abroad, and how hard it was for a family where people live in different countries, alone – but also how our parents divorcing and marrying had led to an ever growing family. There are more parents, more siblings, and I love it and it helps. We can all help each other. And my deceased stepfather was certainly an enrichment for our family, bringing anarchy and lawlessness and laughter into a family that was rigid and regimented and dour, and how we all grew with that and how it was important to remember the good times we had and the lessens we all drew from his presence. Truly, a great influence for all of us.

I still remember how I met him years before my mother met him. He lived across the river alone with his son, wild and free and I was so jealous. I wished to love like that! And then my parents divorced, my dad went back to Switzerland and a year later I followed him and got to live wild and free like them, it was amazing. And one day I came back and there were rumors that our mother had found a boyfriend. Imagine my surprise when it was him! The wild and free guitar playing dude from across the river! And eventually my friend from school turned into my stepbrother, moved in with my mom, lived in my room. It was mysterious and magical and then to see him and his father struggle with my mom, the changes they brought about, it was a miracle.

So, my man, wherever you are, here‘s to you and your last trip, to your guitars and flutes, your love of music and freedom, your spirit of independence and love of people and aliens. Cheers! I hope to see you again.

https://alexschroeder.ch/view/2024-05-23-death


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-30, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

The best humor is about other people being stupid, evil, clumsy or their misfortune. Watch a SNL skit. It’s not about people being smart or brave, kind, generous or otherwise wonderful. That’s another kind of entertainment. We find the misfortune of others funny. Especially famous, successful people. Why? I have no idea.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/30.html#a125832


Supply Chain Attack against Courtroom Software

date: 2024-05-30, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Bruce Schneier blog

No word on how this backdoor was installed:

A software maker serving more than 10,000 courtrooms throughout the world hosted an application update containing a hidden backdoor that maintained persistent communication with a malicious website, researchers reported Thursday, in the latest episode of a supply-chain attack.

The software, known as the JAVS Viewer 8, is a component of the JAVS Suite 8, an application package courtrooms use to record, play back, and manage audio and video from proceedings. Its maker, Louisville, Kentucky-based Justice AV Solutions, says its products are used in more than 10,000 courtrooms throughout the US and 11 other countries. The company has been in business for 35 years…

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/05/supply-chain-attack-against-courtroom-software.html


Odd Man Out

date: 2024-05-30, from: Ayjay blog

Carol Reed’s Odd Man Out is a brilliant movie about … well, that’s the question. Some people say it’s a movie about the IRA, but that’s certainly wrong, and not because the name of the organization and the name of the city in which the action is set are never mentioned. This is obviously Belfast, […]

https://blog.ayjay.org/odd-man-out/


My father’s recitations

date: 2024-05-30, from: Robert Reich’s blog

They were a key to understanding him

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/my-fathers-recitations


May 29, 2024

date: 2024-05-30, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned today in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. They spoke at Girard College, a school where Black Americans make up most of the student body, where they emphasized the importance of Black voters to the Democratic coalition and the ways in which the administration’s actions have delivered on its promises to the Black community.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-29-2024


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-30, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Art much simpler than some people think. It’s not like a batting average or a weather forecast. It’s not something that can be measured objectively. Art is the response that it evokes in the observer. It’s art when people say “that’s not art.” And when someone says only human professionals create art, if he really believes that, he has no freaking clue what art is.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/29.html#a021757


Housing is broken for everyone but the rich

date: 2024-05-30, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

Against Landlords by Robin Rendle This feeling isn’t rage though, it’s simply injustice. A sensitivity to an unnatural thing. A force you might not understand, but you feel it in your bones. The way to fix the housing crisis then is to follow the money and call this thing for what it is: a grave […]

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/29/housing-is-broken-for-everyone-but-the-rich/


Weird online money stuff

date: 2024-05-30, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

STOP THE COMMENTS!!!!! On brands commenting down below and meditating on work and life balances. by Kyle Raymond Fitzpatrick Showing up in the comments, as a person or a brand, is an opportunity to express politics, humor, services: it’s all a means to steal attention, walking into someone else’s wedding, wearing a white dress with […]

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/29/weird-online-money-stuff/


The vision of libraries

date: 2024-05-29, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

This is why libraries are under attack. They are the physical incarnation of an approach to life and politics and humanity that would, if it was expanded upon, let us live, and live well. And therefore they’re threatening. Libraries are a little window into a world where we aren’t scrambling to survive, where profit doesn’t […]

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/29/the-vision-of-libraries/


A Fun AI Fail

date: 2024-05-29, from: Doc Searls (at Harvard), New Old Blog

Here is me, trying to get ChatGPT (version 4o, which I pay for) to give me an illustration to use in my last post here, titled The People’s AI. But don’t go there yet (if you haven’t already). What I ended up using there is a punchline at the end of the dialog that starts […]

https://doc.searls.com/2024/05/29/a-fun-ai-fail/


“My Bike Is Everything to Me”

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/my-bike-is-everything-to-me


How planes fly: “Air, very important magic.” See also: No One Can…

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044702-how-planes-fly-air-very


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-29, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

How can we tell if ChatGPT is intelligent? How can I tell if you’re intelligent. How do I know I’m intelligent. It could be my “intelligence” is as algorithmic as ChatGPT’s. It could be that my intelligence is only a survival mechanism, and the only way I could think of something I think is intelligent is if it furthers my chance to reproduce. But what happens when our intellect instructs us to destroy the environment we depend on for life? It could be we are already obsolete, without the robots, it sure feels that way, and that our only ark that could lead us to a new place where our species can survive in some form is for us to morph into electronic beings whose intelligence is distributed around the planet so we don’t die if it becomes uninhabitable in one place, but not in others. And a LLM might thrive in an environment that can’t support human life.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/29.html#a194217


404 Media explains the antitrust lawsuit against Live Nation/Ticketmaster. “It is about…

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044704-404-media-explains-the-an


FCK

date: 2024-05-29, from: Om Malik blog

When I woke up this morning, the temperature in my part of San Francisco was 53 degrees Fahrenheit. At the same time, the temperature in Delhi was 53 degrees Celsius. If anyone tells you that climate change is a hoax, show them the temperature records for the past four decades.  When I was a teenager, 40 degrees Celsius was high during the summers, though we …

https://om.co/2024/05/29/fck/


Drawing Media, an Interview With Rex Parker

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/drawing-media-an-interview-with-rex-parker-aka-michael-sharp


May 28, 2024

date: 2024-05-29, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-28-2024-f5e


America’s Best Decade

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Daring Fireball

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/05/24/when-america-was-great-according-data/


Poll results show that “America’s best decade” isn’t the 80s or the…

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044699-poll-results-show-that-am


Wherever You Go, There You Are

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/wherever-you-go-there-you-are


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-29, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Walter Isaacson asks if ChatGPT can rival a student’s intellect. My answer as a former teaching assistant who graded lots of student programs, absolutely. It rivals the intellect of every human being I know, including professors. It hasn’t learned yet how to synthesize new ideas, it seems. And there are strong guardrails that keep it from going into certain areas. It is more capable than we know, therefore. BTW, I didn’t realize he teaches at Tulane. I got my undergraduate degree there in 1976.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/29.html#a151345


Scientists have figured out why killer whales are smashing up luxury yachts:…

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044697-scientists-have-figured-o


Good god, the temperature in Delhi hit 50.5°C (122.9°F) today, an all-time…

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044695-good-god-the-temperature-


A Documentary Film About Jim Henson

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/a-documentary-film-about-jim-henson


The trailer for Best of Five, a documentary series about the 2014…

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044694-the-trailer-for-best-of


Modern SQLite: Secure delete

date: 2024-05-29, from: Anton Zhiyanov blog

Leave no trace of deleted data.

https://antonz.org/sqlite-secure-delete/


Privacy Implications of Tracking Wireless Access Points

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Bruce Schneier blog

Brian Krebs reports on research into geolocating routers:

Apple and the satellite-based broadband service Starlink each recently took steps to address new research into the potential security and privacy implications of how their services geolocate devices. Researchers from the University of Maryland say they relied on publicly available data from Apple to track the location of billions of devices globally—including non-Apple devices like Starlink systems—and found they could use this data to monitor the destruction of Gaza, as well as the movements and in many cases identities of Russian and Ukrainian troops…

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/05/privacy-implications-of-tracking-wireless-access-points.html


Ruskin revisited

date: 2024-05-29, from: Ayjay blog

What follows is a kind of sequel to the introduction to Ruskin I published several years ago. Ruskin begins The Stones of Venice by identifying what he believes to have been the essential characteristics of Venetian society in its heyday – which is to say, the twelfth century through the fourteenth: The most curious phenomenon […]

https://blog.ayjay.org/ruskin-revisited/


Office Hours: If Trump is found guilty, should Biden emphasize the guilty verdict or focus on abortion and democracy instead?

date: 2024-05-29, from: Robert Reich’s blog

His campaign team wants to do the latter, but are they correct?

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/office-hours-if-trump-is-found-guilty


May 28, 2024

date: 2024-05-29, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

The defense and the prosecution today made their closing statements in the New York criminal case against Trump for falsifying business records to hide a $130,000 payment to adult film actress Stephanie Clifford, also known as Stormy Daniels. The payment was intended to stop her account of her sexual encounter with Trump from becoming public in the days before the 2016 election, when the Trump campaign was already reeling from the Access Hollywood tape showing Trump boasting of sexual assault.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-28-2024


Systems: The Purpose of a System is What It Does

date: 2024-05-29, updated: 2024-05-29, from: Anil Dash blog

https://anildash.com/2024/05/29/systems-the-purpose-of-a-system/


Wednesday 29 May, 2024

date: 2024-05-28, from: John Naughton’s online diary

Horse bolted, door still open Jesus College, Cambridge Quote of the Day ”Once you see the boundaries of your environment, they are no longer the boundaries of your environment.” Marshall McLuhan Musical alternative to the morning’s radio news Liam O’Flynn, … Continue reading

https://memex.naughtons.org/wednesday-29-may-2024/39496/


An Instagram account full of the amazing, slightly deranged, and (I’d assume)…

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044693-an-instagram-account-full


Supremely Unaccountable

date: 2024-05-28, from: Dan Rather’s Steady

Will Democrats turn the Supreme Court to their political advantage?

https://steady.substack.com/p/supremely-unaccountable


Whales Have an Alphabet. “Carl Zimmer, a science reporter, explains why it’s…

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044692-whales-have-an-alphabet-c


tinyPod turns a strapless Apple Watch into a wee iPod with a…

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044690-tinypod-turns-a-strapless


Parents Just Called To Make Sure You Thought Of Every Possible Thing…

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/0044689-parents-just-called-to-ma


Okay, I Did Reread ‘My Favorite Thing Is Monsters’ Part One

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/okay-i-did-reread-my-favorite-thing-is-monsters-part-one


Last Week’s Reads: Scrabble, Emoji, Quilts

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/last-weeks-reads


May 27, 2024

date: 2024-05-28, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-27-2024-9b1


A Pickpocket’s Story

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/a-pickpockets-story-1


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-28, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Cross-posting to various social web sites has gotten out of hand, not just for the person posting, but for readers.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/28.html#a151221


The People’s AI

date: 2024-05-28, from: Doc Searls (at Harvard), New Old Blog

People need their own AIs. Personally and collectively. We won’t get them from Anthropic, Apple, Google, OpenAI, Meta, or Microsoft. Not even from Apple. All those companies will want to provide AIaaS: AI as a Service, rather than AI that’s yours alone. Or ours, collectively. The People’s AI can only come from people. Since it […]

https://doc.searls.com/2024/05/28/the-peoples-ai/


Library of Congress: Designing Storage Architectures 2024

date: 2024-05-28, from: David Rosenthal’s blog

I participated virtually in the 2024 Library of Congress Designing Storage Architectures for Digital Collections meeting. As usual, there were a set of very interesting talks. The slides from the presentations are now online so, below the fold, I discuss the talks I found particulary interesting.

NAND, HDD and Tape Storage Technology Trends

As has become traditional, IBM’s Georg Lauhoff and Gary M Decad presented a detailed overview of the storage market. Five slides are of particular interest.

Source
The first is their log-linear graph of the progress of areal density of hard disk (HDD), tape and NAND flash over the last three decades:
Source
IBM’s second pair of graphs shows (a) a log-linear plot of the Exabytes shipped each year since 2008, and (b) the percentage of the total represented by each medium:
Source
The next slide shows (a) a log-linear plot of the cost of a terabyte over time (the Kryder rate), and (b) the ratio between NAND and HDD, and HDD to tape:
Medium $/TB
NAND 50
HDD 16
Tape 2.6
Their table of 2023 costs shows that NAND is more than 3 times as expensive as HDD. But this is an average across the whole range of NAND and HDD markets. Much NAND goes into market segments where it does not compete with HDD, such as SD cards, USB drives and phones. Whereas most HDD is 3.5” drives in PCs and data centers, where it competes only with enterprise flash. So in markets where they compete, the cost differential will be substantially higher.

They have two slides that echo topics I have posted about fairly often. The first points out that industry projections of future areal density (and thus cost) routinely exaggerate the rate of growth by at least 10%. This why I frequently report on how happy the good Dr. Pangloss is with the storage industry.

The second of them expresses skepticism about the prospect of DNA storage impactuing the market. Their cost graph shows the cost to write a terabyte of DNA is around 10 orders of magnitude more than for HDD, and the cost to read it once is around 3 orders of magnitude more than buying a terabyte of HDD. They write:
I pointed this out in 2018’s DNA’s Niche In The Storage Market. Even if projections about the increase in demand for archival storage pan out, it will be hard for new media to compete with tape.

They also write something mystifying — “Not so stable”, citing DNA Data Storage by Tomasz Buko, Nella Tuczko, and Takao Ishikawa of the University of Warsaw. This paper contends that DNA is vastly more stable than tape, or any current medium:
For years, a DNA specimen collected from a 700,000-year-old horse was considered to be the oldest extracted DNA. However, in 2021, this record was pushed to 1 million years. DNA extracted from mammoth teeth was successfully extracted and sequenced. Additionally, scientists managed to sequence 300,000-year-old mitochondrial DNA from humans and bears. These examples perfectly illustrate the longevity of DNA and proves its usefulness for archeological purposes or data storekeeping. If stored in optimal conditions and dehydrated, DNA can possibly endure for millions of years.

Seagate Storage Update

Source
Jon Trantham’s look at the hard disk market was interesting. First, his graph of demand for nearline HDDs explains why the industry suffered hard times recently and why they believe the future looks brighter. A period of rapid growth led to an inventory buildup from exuberant demand forecasts, but the inventory has been depleted and demand is now rising. One might be skeptical of the rate of demand recovery in the graph, but at least the US economy suggests rising demand is plausible.

Source
His slide on IDC’s market forecast supports my contention that IBM’s cost ratio between NAND and HDD is misleading. The non-cloud HDD market is projected to be a small proportion of the total, and to grow slowly. The vast bulk of the HDD market is for cloud storage, and thus the effective cost ratio is between HDD and enterprise SSDs. This would be much greater than IBM’s overall estimate of 3.


Source
Seagate projects that the capacity per platter will rise from today’s 2.4TB to over 5TB by 2026 (see Dr. Pangloss and IBM) using their Mozaic HAMR technology. Current 16TB drives have 9 1.78TB platters. Seagate recently started shipping 30TB drives with 10 3TB platters. If they are right a 10 platter drive in 2026 would be 50TB, or around 3x the current drive capacity. This would certainly help maintain HDD’s market share.

Some additional topics:
Western Digital’s presentation also focused on sustainability.

Design and Operation of Exascale Archives in Azure

Source
The first slide of Microsoft’s Aaron Ogus and Shashidar Joshi’s talk shows why cloud systems like Azure are dominating the industry.

Their observations from the experience of running Exabytes of archival storage containing trillions of objects and servicing billions of requests each month are:
All the early studies showed that archival storage workloads are write-domminated, because most archival data is written and very rarely accessed. That’s why it has been archived. It is reasssuring to know that this is still true in the cloud era. Given this, and that the Service Level Agreements for cloud archives do not require low latency, it isn’t clear why Microsoft thinks this is important.

The challenges Microsoft sees with their current technologies are:
The environmental requirements of current technologies were one reason for Facebook’s use of optical storage, it only needed warehouse space not a data center. Anecdotal reports at the meeting revealed serious issues with moving tapes between environments.

The uncertainties are always with us, not least because the economics of long-term storage depend strongly on interest rates. The “need for media migration at EOL” is one major motivation for the use of quasi-immortal media, such as Project Silica. But this is illusory. As I wrote about Facebook’s optical cold storage:
No-one expects the racks to sit in the data center for 50 years, at some point before then they will be obsoleted by some unknown new, much denser and more power-efficient cold storage medium.
Earlier this year I discussed Microsoft Research’s view of the “opportunity for new storage technologies” in Microsoft’s Archival Storage Research. They are pursuing two technologies, DNA storage, and Project Silica. Ogus and Joshi discuss Project Silica, claiming that it provides “Performance (Random IO) per TB metric better than currently available Archive technologies”. But part of the design of Project Silica is that the write and read drives are different, and thus:
This allows independent scaling of read and write throughput.
Their claim depends upon the system being configured with enough write (if they meant I) or read (if they meant O) drives.

The Data Storage Industry Gets Ready for AI

Fred Moore made the important point that archival storage faced a significant risk of a Vertical Market Failure (VMF):

Archival storage is a very small part of the total storage industry. NAND and HDDs pay for their R&D in the much bigger online and nearline markets. Tape leverages a little of that, in that its head technology is based on HDD head technology, but in general has to fund R&D solely from the archive market. And so will potential novel archival storage technologies, such as DNA and Project Silica. Fundamentally, companies don’t want to invest in archival storage because it doesn’t generate income, so the market isn’t just small, but under significant margin pressure. This is why I wrote Archival Media: Not a Good Business six years ago. If and when NAND eventually displaces HDD for nearline storage, the reduced market will definitely cause a VMF, with knock-on effects on tape.

https://blog.dshr.org/2024/05/library-of-congress-designing-storage.html


A common web component learning blunder

date: 2024-05-28, from: Dave Rupert blog

Through stalking the #WebComponents hashtag and my Frontend Masters course, I’m privy to a lot of developers’ first experiences with web components. There’s a wide range of people digging in, but the most common first-time experience I come across is a developer coming from a classical component framework like React with JSX going straight to writing vanilla Web Components, becoming frustrated, and then deeming web components “not ready for primetime.”

Ignoring for a moment that web components do exist in the primetime and power some big and complex primetime web applications like Adobe’s Photoshop for Web, I half-understand this perspective. I understand the desire to not have a major dependency. I hate this bloated node_modules hellhole we’ve built over the last decade and while I’m not a npm install my problems away guy… I think this puritanical approach to dependencies is a misstep when diving into web components for the first time.

The analogy I’ve been using is that this is like jumping from a tall 130 kilobyte-story building (ReactDOM) right into the zero kilobyte sewers of web components. If you take anything from this post, please understand this: web components (most likely) weren’t designed for you. Not to dissuade you from using them, but they were purposefully designed to be a low-level bare metal primitive for library authors to build on; they were designed to be used with a library, a thin layer of abstraction butter on top.

To understand this disparity further, let’s look at an example of what writing a component in a “modern” framework feels like…

// React
export default function MyApp() {
    handleClick() {
        alert('hi')
    }
    
  return (
    <div>
      <h1>Welcome to my app</h1>
      <button onClick={handleClick}>Im a button</button>
    </div>
  );
}

Can you do this in vanilla web components? Sure. But it looks like this…

// Vanilla web component
const myAppTmpl = document.createElement('template')
myAppTmpl.innerHTML = `
  <h1>Welcome to my app</h1>
  <button>I’m a button</button>
`;

class MyApp extends HTMLElement {
    constructor() {
        super();
        this._shadowRoot = this.attachShadow({ mode: 'open' })
        this._shadowRoot.appendChild(myAppTmpl.content.cloneNode(true))
        this._shadowRoot
      .querySelector('button')
      .addEventListener('click', this.handleClick);   
    }
    
    handleClick() {
        alert('hi')
    }
}

customElements.define('my-app', MyApp)

This is a boring, imperative set of instructions for building the component with a little bit of dangerouslySetInnerHTML1 mixed in there… and ugchk… it sucks. It’s even more verbose with more interactive elements or a slew of reactive props and attributes.

Let’s see what 7 kilobytes of Lit gets us….

import { LitElement, html } from 'lit'

class MyApp extends LitElement {
    handleClick() {
        alert('hi')
    }
    
  render() {
        return html`
      <h1>Welcome to my app</h1>
      <button @click=${this.handleClick}>I’m a button</button>
    `;
  }
}

customElements.define('my-app', MyApp)

Now we have a component that’s almost identical to the familiar world of JSX but without any Babel transforms or build steps. For 7 kilobytes you get a lot more than some syntactic sugar, you get…

There’s value in learning how bare metal vanilla web components work in the same way there’s value in knowing how Intl.RelativeTimeFormat() works, but you probably want to use Day.js for your day-to-day work. You can totally write your own base class abstraction – and I want you to have the JeffElement base class of your dreams, I do – but you may find out (like Cory LaViska from Shoelace found out) that after you write all your little helper functions and utilities that you’ll end up with something almost the exact same size and feature set as Lit, but not as well supported nor as battle-tested.

This makes me sound anti-vanilla web components and I’m not that by any means. Vanilla web components are a perfect fit for standalone components and the Light DOM-forward flavor of “HTML web components”, but I think the people having the most fun in this space are JavaScript minimalists who already prefer writing vanilla JavaScript. People like myself.

“If I have to use a library how is this any different than any other framework lock-in?” This is a valid question and one worthy of its own post, but I think you’ll find the lock-in costs of a web component library pretty minimal. Because all web components libraries extend a common base class, there’s a linear pathway out of vendor lock-in if necessary.

What I’m saying is this; next time you’re thinking about jumping from 130 kilobytes of developer convenience, maybe consider giving yourself a 7 kilobyte landing pad to cushion the fall.

  1. There’s ways around the innerHTML call like by writing the template in your HTML instead. ↩︎

https://daverupert.com/2024/05/cold-turkey-wont-fix-your-javascript-addiction/


Listening to Sand: The Sound Design of Dune

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-28, from: Jason Kittke’s blog

https://kottke.org/24/05/listening-to-sand-the-sound-design-of-dune


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-28, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Here’s a problem I have with the ChatGPT app. I can’t find the conversations I had with it a month ago. And I need to. They desperately need a Bookmarks menu. I’m sure their corporate customers are screaming about this, because they need groupware too. Are they partnering with Slack, or is Slack doing their own, for example?

http://scripting.com/2024/05/28.html#a123950


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-28, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Wouldn’t it be incredible to have ChatGPT as part of a conversation on GitHub?

http://scripting.com/2024/05/28.html#a123322


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-28, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Apple, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc should collaborate on new ways to do software docs and user interaction using AI. It’s an incredible application, it will revolutionize how useful computers are to people, and the only people whose writing is ingested are employees of the companies. Not only will it increase utility, it will demonstrate in a very observable way how transformational the technology is. Probably will do nice things for the value of the stock too.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/28.html#a120523


Lattice-Based Cryptosystems and Quantum Cryptanalysis

date: 2024-05-28, updated: 2024-05-25, from: Bruce Schneier blog

Quantum computers are probably coming, though we don’t know when—and when they arrive, they will, most likely, be able to break our standard public-key cryptography algorithms. In anticipation of this possibility, cryptographers have been working on quantum-resistant public-key algorithms. The National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) has been hosting a competition since 2017, and there already are several proposed standards. Most of these are based on lattice problems.

The mathematics of lattice cryptography revolve around combining sets of vectors—that’s the lattice—in a multi-dimensional space. These lattices are filled with multi-dimensional periodicities. The …

https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2024/05/lattice-based-cryptosystems-and-quantum-cryptanalysis.html


The dangerous anti-democracy coalition

date: 2024-05-28, from: Robert Reich’s blog

American oligarchs are joining Trump and his faux working-class MAGA movement

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the-anti-democracy-alliance


A better way to organize information

date: 2024-05-28, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/27/a-better-way-to-organize-information/


Plant and Animal ID Resources

date: 2024-05-28, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

RESOURCES FOR LEARNING ABOUT AND IDENTIFYING LIVING THINGS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OREGON by Matt Hunter Trees and Buds – Crow’s Path

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/27/plant-and-animal-id-resources/


May 27, 2024

date: 2024-05-28, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

The White House hosted a three-day state visit for President William Ruto and First Lady Rachel Ruto of Kenya beginning on May 23, 2024. The visit marks the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the U.S. and Kenya and is the first state visit for an African leader since President John Kufuor of Ghana visited in 2008.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-27-2024


date: 2024-05-27, updated: 2024-05-27, from: Daring Fireball

https://atoms.com/df?utm_source=daringfireball&utm_medium=paid&utm_campaign=June2024


Truth, Math, and Models

date: 2024-05-27, updated: 2024-05-27, from: Ron Garret

(Part 8 in a series on the scientific method)In the last installment I advanced a hypothesis about what truth is, which is to say, I suggested a way to explain the broad consensus that appears to exist about truth.  That explanation was: there is an objective reality “out there”, and true statements are those that in some sense correspond to the actual state of affairs in that objective

https://blog.rongarret.info/2024/05/truth-math-and-models.html


AI Slop is the new spam!

date: 2024-05-27, from: Om Malik blog

Slop is the new Spam. Slop is unwanted AI-generated content. Most AI-powered products don’t truly have product/market fit. That’s because they are easy to build (wrappers) and it’s easy to make grandiose promises on a website. Delivering value is an entirely other thing. Product marketing is far ahead of product value in most cases. Hiten …

https://om.co/2024/05/27/ai-slop-is-the-new-spam/


Silicon Valley’s Empathy Vacuum

date: 2024-05-27, from: Om Malik blog

In a recent podcast, Adobe Chief Product Officer Scott Belsky said that startups and founders jump into the fray and desire to do the impossible but overlook one small thing — empathy. I have talked about the need for empathy for more than a decade now — in 2013, 2014, 2016, and then in 2017. I am glad Scott is taking up the issue. “What should have …

https://om.co/2024/05/27/silicon-valleys-empathy-vacuum/


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-27, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

A reading list is a “list of feeds you can subscribe to.”

http://scripting.com/2024/05/27.html#a142955


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-27, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Robert Alexander has supplied a bunch of feeds with links to blogrolls. And that has got me rolling on reading feeds and blogrolls, which I am narrating in the thread, as I go.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/27.html#a142733


May 26, 2024

date: 2024-05-27, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-26-2024-b20


Journeys

date: 2024-05-27, from: Ayjay blog

Early in Terrence Malick’s masterpiece A Hidden Life (2019), Franz Jägerstätter and his wife Franziska (Fani) sit at the kitchen table in their Austrian farmhouse and reminisce about their first meeting. Fani thinks back to Franz’s arrival in the village, and as she does we cut to a shot, seen from behind and slightly above, […]

https://blog.ayjay.org/journeys/


The true meaning of Memorial Day, and the upcoming election

date: 2024-05-27, from: Robert Reich’s blog

Hint: It’s not white Christian nationalism

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/the-true-meaning-of-memorial-day


My BDFL guiding principles

date: 2024-05-27, from: Daniel Stenberg Blog

The thing about me being a BDFL for curl is that it has the D in there. I have the means and ability to push for or veto just about anything I like or don’t like in the project, should I decide to. In my public presentations about curl I emphasize that I truly try … Continue reading My BDFL guiding principles

https://daniel.haxx.se/blog/2024/05/27/my-bdfl-guiding-principles/


May 26, 2024

date: 2024-05-27, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

Tomorrow is Memorial Day, the day Americans have honored since 1868, when we mourn those military personnel who have died in the service of the country—that is, for the rest of us. For me, one of those people is Beau Bryant. When we were growing up, we hung out at one particular house where a friend’s mom provided unlimited peanut butter and fluff sandwiches, Uno games, iced tea and lemonade, sympathetic ears, and stories. She talked about Beau, her older brother, in the same way we talked about all our people, and her stories made him part of our world even though he had been killed in World War II 19 years before we were born.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-26-2024


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-26, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

The best campaign commercial ever. So simple. A nostalgic song, beautifully performed. Stock footage of American workers and families, interspersed with video from campaign events. These things aren’t complicated. I bet Bernie and S&G would let Biden use the same format.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/26.html#a231938


Monday 27 May, 2024

date: 2024-05-26, from: John Naughton’s online diary

Punting, anyone? Quote of the Day ” I should like to bury something precious in every place where I’ve been happy and then, when I’m old and ugly and miserable, I could come back and dig it up and remember. … Continue reading

https://memex.naughtons.org/monday-27-may-2024/39488/


My message to the graduating class

date: 2024-05-26, from: Robert Reich’s blog

The best advice I have

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/my-message-to-the-graduating-class


@Dave Winer’s Scripting News (date: 2024-05-26, from: Dave Winer’s Scripting News)

Call for feeds. I’m working on a bit of demo software and need a few blogroll-supporting feeds that have <source:blogroll> elements.

http://scripting.com/2024/05/26.html#a142703


‘What’s Going On’

date: 2024-05-26, from: Dan Rather’s Steady

A Reason To Smile

https://steady.substack.com/p/whats-going-on


Sunday caption contest: Signage

date: 2024-05-26, from: Robert Reich’s blog

And last week’s winner

https://robertreich.substack.com/p/sunday-caption-contest-signage


Emotional dominoes

date: 2024-05-26, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

When you get stuck, look at your most recent emotional dominoes. Do your last few scenes logically connect? Do the emotional beats progress and shift as the events and previous scenes indicate they should? Does the character’s goal shift according to his/her emotional shift? Check all of your dominoes. Make sure that when each one […]

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/25/emotional-dominoes/


Eric Clapton – Journeyman

date: 2024-05-26, from: Tracy Durnell Blog

https://tracydurnell.com/2024/05/25/eric-clapton-journeyman/


May 25, 2024

date: 2024-05-26, from: Heather Cox Richardson blog

While it’s not officially summer yet, the town is coming to life. The lilacs and apple trees are blooming over the forget-me-nots, and over them all is the bright blue sky of the coming summer. For me, though, the clearest sign of the change of seasons is that Buddy is back on the water, and sunrise photos like this are waiting for me on my phone when I get up many hours after he has headed out to haul.

https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/may-25-2024