(date: 2024-01-07 11:38:29)
date: 2024-01-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Dry and windy conditions are probable across parts of South Texas during the late afternoon and persisting into the evening. Poor fuel receptiveness and strong cold air advection behind the cold front should limit the overall fire weather concerns, however. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An intense upper-level trough and surface low are forecast to amplify further as they move eastward across the south-central CONUS D2/Monday. In the wake of the low, a strong cold front will move eastward ushering in a windy, but much colder air mass. A few hours of dry and windy conditions are possible over parts of West TX. ...West TX... As the upper trough and surface low continue to intensify over the Southern Plains, low-level winds are expected to increase across the TX Trans Pecos region through much of D2/Monday. Strong pressure gradients behind the low will aid downslope gusts of 25-35 mph. Coincident with the increasing winds, a dry low-level air mass with RH values below 25% is possible. A few hours of elevated meteorological conditions may develop in the afternoon. With strong winds and areas of low humidity potentially overlapping ahead of the cooler air mass, elevated fire-weather conditions are a possibility, for a few hours, despite modest fuel availability. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-01-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 7 18:40:02 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-01-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024
Areas affected...Portions of Southern New England
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 071716Z - 072015Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow expected through the afternoon with
rain transitioning to snow near the coast.
DISCUSSION...Snow is intensifying across portions of southern New
England as the surface low intensifies over the Atlantic and
low-level wind fields strengthen. Snowfall rates of 1 to perhaps 2
inches per hour are expected through the afternoon before moving
offshore by this evening. Areas near the coast which have been
mostly rain thus far due to winds off the ocean will transition to
snow in the next few hours as winds shift more northerly as the
cyclone deepens/moves east. In addition, sustained winds around 15
mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph may lead to some blowing and drifting
snow and additional visibility restrictions through the afternoon.
..Bentley.. 01/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 41207155 41357278 41877321 42437323 42927264 43247189
43367117 43337037 42587013 42136996 41676987 41487000
41377050 41247147 41207155
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date: 2024-01-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of strong wind gusts and tornadoes are expected from southeast Texas across the central Gulf Coast and from Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Greatest severe potential is anticipated overnight from southeast Louisiana across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama, and into the western Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently extending from Great Basin through the northern Baja Peninsula is forecast to move eastward today while intensifying. By 12Z Monday morning this shortwave will likely have matured into a mid-latitude cyclone centered over northeast NM, with an extensive belt of strong mid-level flow throughout its southern periphery. This cyclone is then expected to evolve eastward across the TX Panhandle and OK throughout the day, with mid-level flow strengthening considerably throughout its eastern periphery. By Monday evening, 100+ kt at 500-mb will likely stretch from the Edwards Plateau into the Ozark Plateau. Further strengthening of this mid-level flow is anticipated overnight Monday as the cyclone tracks a bit more northeastward, ending the period over western MO. Intense low-level flow will accompany this cyclone as well, with a large area of 50+ kt over the southern Plains early Monday. This low-level jet will shift eastward throughout the day and overnight, while gradually strengthening. By early Tuesday morning, 60+ kt 850-mb flow will cover much of the Southeast, with 70+ kt possible from northern MS into middle TN and northern AL. Previous frontal intrusion (evidenced by the cold and dry conditions over the southern Plains and Southeast Sunday) will limit the northern extent of the moisture return and associated severe-thunderstorm potential. General expectation is for secondary surface cyclogenesis over central TX Monday morning, with the primary low well to the north over the TX/OK Panhandles. This secondary low (and associated warm front) should delineate the northern extent of the severe potential as it gradually moves eastward across central portions of east TX and into central LA Monday afternoon and evening. This low is forecast to continue eastward overnight Monday into early Tuesday, progressing across central MS and AL. Severe thunderstorms are expected within the warm sector ahead of this low, as well as along the associated cold front as it surges eastward. ...North TX Early Monday... As the strong mid-level flow associated with the cyclone moves into southern Plains, a fast-moving line of showers and embedded thunderstorms is expected to move across north TX early Monday morning. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, limiting overall updraft strength and duration. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts as it moves eastward. ...TX Coastal Plain/Southeast TX into southwest LA Monday Afternoon and Evening... Two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the region Monday, with the first round likely beginning early Monday afternoon as the warm sector moves into the region. Current guidance suggests this warm sector will be characterized by temperatures in the low 70s, dewpoints in the upper 60s, and moderate buoyancy. However, given the prevalence of cloud cover and early period showers, there is uncertainty regarding if temperatures can reach the low 70s. If they do, some surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes are possible. If temperatures stay in the 60s, low-level stability would likely inhibit surface-based storm development, mitigating the severe potential. Consensus within the guidance has trended towards warmer temperatures and tornado probabilities were increased across the region as a result. A further increase in probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in surface-based storms increases. Additional thunderstorm development is anticipated along the front as it moves through, but the strength of these storms will be predicated on coverage and strength of any warm sector development. Strong wind gusts would be the primary severe risk with this convective line. ...Central Gulf Coast Overnight Monday into Tuesday Morning... As the surface low continues eastward, a convective line is expected to mature along the cold front as it encounters a moderately moist and buoyant airmass and increasingly strong low-level flow. As the line matures, it will likely transition from a more parallel stratiform structure to a more organized leading-line, trailing stratiform configuration. Robust low-level kinematics, characterized by 50-60 kt just above the surface and 500+ m2/s2 of 0-3 km SRH, suggest both significant-severe gusts and strong QLCS tornadoes are possible. ..Mosier.. 01/07/2024
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date: 2024-01-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 01/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... An amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern will persist over the CONUS as a Pacific trough is forecast to rapidly deepen over parts of the western US before ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. In response, a strong lee low will develop, supporting gusty winds across parts of West TX. However, cool temperatures and widespread recent precipitation should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Texas Trans Pecos... As the upper trough and surface low move across the southern Plains, strong southerly winds and pockets of lower humidity are possible over parts of West TX and southern NM. Gusts of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% are possible over a minima in recent precipitation. Elevated to critical meteorological conditions are possible in parts of southern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. However, unreceptive fuels are not expected to support widespread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-01-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1015 AM CST Sun Jan 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds are possible late tonight over portions of western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma. ...TX/OK... A vigorous shortwave trough currently over southern NV will amplify/deepen tonight as it digs into the southern Rockies. Meanwhile, an intense southerly low-level jet will develop ahead of the system over TX, resulting in enhanced low-level warm advection and lift - along with weak destabilization. The result will likely be the development of a line of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms after midnight over parts of west TX and southwest OK. Forecast soundings show very weak thermodynamics, suggesting the updraft strength will be modest. However, given the strong low and upper level support, a narrow-line of forced convection may become capable of locally gusty/damaging wind gusts (mainly 09-12z). ..Hart/Bentley.. 01/07/2024
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