(date: 2024-01-14 11:32:36)
date: 2024-01-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 14 17:47:01 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-01-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024
Areas affected...Southeast New York into the New England region
Concerning...Snow Squall
Valid 141649Z - 142045Z
SUMMARY...Thermodynamic conditions will remain favorable for snow
squalls as a cold front pushes east into the New England region.
DISCUSSION...Recent regional radar depicts broken bands of shallow
convection along an eastward moving cold front from upstate NY into
eastern PA. Visibility reductions between 1/4 to 1 mile have been
observed with the passage of these bands and are primarily being
driven by bursts of moderate to heavy snow with 25-35 mph wind
gusts. The 12 UTC PIT sounding likely sampled the convective
environment most accurately with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates
from the surface to ~750 mb, which appears to be represented well by
recent 0-3 km lapse rate analyses. The plume of 8+ C/km low-level
lapse rates is forecast to spread to the northeast into the New
England region through the day in tandem with the cooler mid-level
temperatures associated with the primary trough axis. Low-level
instability should be bolstered by modest diurnal heating between
cloud breaks through the afternoon, and a weak influx of moisture
may support occasional lightning flashes, though sustained,
lightning-producing convection is not necessarily anticipated.
Nonetheless, the combination of improving low-level thermodynamics,
focused ascent along the front, and 30-40 mph winds within the
boundary layer should maintain the snow squall potential well into
the afternoon.
..Moore.. 01/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 40817558 41267567 42257496 44237351 44587283 44747124
44797089 44607048 44146998 43776984 43257045 42577077
41467167 41237225 41187286 40497484 40817558
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date: 2024-01-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An arctic airmass and large upper cyclone will continue to dominate much of the CONUS on Monday. Little thunderstorm potential is evident, with one exception across FL. Generally 60s surface dewpoints will be present along/south of a front over parts of the FL Peninsula. Poor lapse rates aloft and warm mid-level temperatures should hinder the development of any more than weak instability for much of the day. But, enough MUCAPE should eventually be present to support isolated thunderstorm potential mainly Monday evening into early Tuesday morning as a weak southern-stream shortwave trough moves across this region. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason.. 01/14/2024
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date: 2024-01-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 01/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 PM CST Sat Jan 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Immediately ahead of a stalled cold front across the southern High Plains, enhanced downslope flow and a modest surface pressure gradient will contribute to locally dry/breezy conditions over far southeast NM into the TX Trans-Pecos. While 15-20 mph sustained westerly surface winds and around 15 percent RH could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overlap of dry/breezy conditions appears too localized/marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-01-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England. ...Synopsis... Mid-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses continue to show the east/northeastward progression of a strong upper wave over the upper OH River Valley/New England with an attendant - but slowly occluding - surface cyclone over eastern Canada. A trailing cold front is noted in surface observations from upstate NY to the southwest along the southern Appalachians into the lower MS Valley and TX Gulf Coast region. This boundary will continue migrating east/southeast through the day as an arctic air mass overspreads much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. The frigid air will negate convective potential for most regions today with the exception of south Florida and parts of New England. ...South Florida... A residual frontal boundary from a previous cool air intrusion into the Gulf is noted in visible imagery across south FL with occasional convection/lightning flashes noted over the past few hours. Regional 12 UTC soundings sampled poor mid-level lapse rates, but sufficient elevated buoyancy is in place above the shallow frontal layer to continue to support isolated thunderstorms through today/tonight as lift ahead of an approaching mid-level disturbance overspreads the region. ...New England... Shallow convection is noted along/behind the cold front across portions of PA and NY this morning. While this activity is currently too cool and shallow to support lightning production, a combination of diurnal warming, a weak influx of moisture from the Mid-Atlantic coast, and cool mid-level temperatures may provide adequate buoyancy for a few lightning flashes later this afternoon across southeast NY into the New England region. ..Moore.. 01/14/2024
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