(date: 2024-02-02 17:13:16)
date: 2024-02-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z Fire weather potential is expected to remain limited across the country through the extended period. The upper wave currently located across the Four Corners will migrate east across northern Mexico and into the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days. As this occurs, precipitation chances are expected to overspread much of the central Plains, and Southeast. Longwave troughing is expected by early next week across the western CONUS, which should continue to promote seasonally cool temperatures and rain/snow chances across much of the country. ...D3/Sunday - Southwestern and South-Central Texas... Gusty post-frontal dry northwesterly flow will likely overlap afternoon relative humidity reductions to around 20-30 percent from Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau and southward into the Rio Grande Valley Sunday afternoon. Light precipitation is possible across some portion of this region late D1 Friday into D2 Saturday. In addition, fuel guidance indicates fuels within this region are largely below the 50th percentile for dryness. However, drying of freeze cured grasses could support locally some increase in fire spread potential and locally elevated weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 02/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-02-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations showed developing showers/thunderstorms and expanding cloud cover over much of the southern Plains. Some gusty winds and periodic humidity below 25% are possible over parts of southwest TX this afternoon. However, more widespread critical fire-weather concerns appear unlikely owing to wetting rain potential and the poor overlap of meteorological conditions with the driest fuels in southwest TX. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CST Thu Feb 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen as it ejects into the southern High Plains today, supporting surface cyclone development in Colorado. A dryline will develop and move eastward across the TX Panhandle, supporting strong westerly surface winds through the afternoon hours across eastern New Mexico into far western Texas. While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times across much of the southern High Plains, widespread clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected. When also considering relatively high RH values (20-25 percent at lowest) and marginally receptive fuels, fire weather highlights do not appear warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-02-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 2 16:38:02 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-02-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 2 16:38:02 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-02-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY SOUTH TO THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Local severe weather potential, mainly in the form of hail, will affect portions of the southern Plains from late afternoon into this evening. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper flow pattern will continue across the U.S. today. While a trough will continue crossing the eastern states and a second affects the Pacific Northwest, the primary feature with respect to convective weather will be a trough/evolving upper low advancing east-southeastward across the Desert Southwest. Ascent in advance of this feature -- and the associated left exit region of a 160 kt northwesterly upper-level jet -- will continue spreading into/across the southern Plains through the period. At the surface, a Pacific cold front -- associated with the aforementioned southwestern U.S. upper trough -- will shift out of eastern New Mexico and far West Texas into lower elevations of the southern Plains today and tonight, in tandem with an increase in thunderstorms across the region. ...Southern Plains... Morning RAOBS indicate stout capping across the southern Plains region, with expansive low clouds/stratus per visible satellite imagery due to a partially modified Gulf boundary-layer airmass streaming northwestward beneath the inversion. The low cloudiness -- and increasing convection across the area with time -- will limit potential for surface-based destabilization in most areas, particularly with eastward extent. With that said, some erosion of the low clouds is ongoing into portions of the Big Country region of Texas, with clear skies to the west -- i.e. portions of the south Plains and the Transpecos region. Resulting insolation ahead of the advancing front will likely permit eventual/afternoon thunderstorm development across the Big Country and Concho Valley region, which is then expected to spread northeastward toward western North Texas with time. Storms may also develop by this evening over the higher terrain just west of the lower Rio Grande Valley, and adjacent portions of the Edwards Plateau. Despite the somewhat cool, and only modestly moist boundary layer expected to persist across the eastern half of the southern Plains, steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE aloft, supporting locally vigorous updrafts. Storm intensity will be aided by favorably strong/veering flow with height as increasing southwesterly mid-level flow spreads eastward across the southern Plains. As a result, isolated rotating storms will likely evolve, with the greatest potential for surface-based severe risk including damaging winds likely to remain across western portions of the SLGT risk area. Into this evening, as storms continue to increase in coverage and spread eastward across central parts of the southern Plains, and perhaps initiate farther south toward the Rio Grande Valley, risk should transition to primarily hail, as convection should largely remain elevated. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/02/2024
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date: 2024-02-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Fri Feb 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS TO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE NEARBY RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two are possible over parts of the southern Plains, from late afternoon into this evening. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified, somewhat progressive mid/upper-level pattern is forecast through the period, with ridging shifting slowly eastward across central Canada and the Mississippi Valley. Upstream, height falls will spread across the Rockies and Great Plains States. The most convectively impactful feature will be a basal shortwave trough -- with several associated vorticity maxima -- initially evident in moisture-channel imagery over portions of southern CA, the lower Colorado River Valley, and northwestern MX. The trough should shift eastward and strengthen, extending from the Four Corners area across central/southern NM past ELP and over Chihuahua around 00Z. By 12Z, a closed 500-mb low should develop over northeastern NM, with the trough south-southeastward across the Llano Estacado and Permian Basin to Coahuila. At 11Z, surface analysis showed lee troughing over eastern parts of CO and NM, with a few weak/attached lows, as well as pockets of 60s F surface dewpoints reaching as far north as the SAT-AUS region. A diffuse Pacific cold front was apparent over east-central NM and far west TX, and should sharpen through the day as it crosses west TX. A dryline was drawn from northwest TX southwestward over the Permian Basin, then south-southeastward into higher terrain of northern Coahuila. This dryline should mix eastward through this afternoon to the Edwards Plateau on the south side, and move little on the north side. The lee trough should strengthen throughout the period, with cyclogenesis expected overnight in the area from the northwestern TX Panhandle to southeastern CO. The Pacific front to its south and southeast should overtake the dryline and shift eastward from west TX into central and south TX tonight. ...TX/OK... Episodes of strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to cross the outlook area starting this afternoon along/ahead of the dryline -- initially moving roughly northward over in the northwest TX/eastern Panhandle/western OK region. Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and potential for a brief tornado exists with this activity. A later but more-substantial severe threat is apparent across parts of northwest, central and southwest TX, east of late-afternoon/early-evening development areas along: 1. The dryline, 2. The Pacific front, and 3. Eastern slopes of the Serranias del Burro of Coahuila leading down to the Rio Grande. Supercellular and bowing/quasi-linear modes are possible in and near the "slight" area, offering sporadic severe hail, isolated severe gusts and potential for a tornado or two. Some hail may exceed 2 inches in diameter from supercell(s) in the first few hours of the convective cycle over parts of south TX (southern Hill Country southward). In that area, the most-favorable combination of steep deep-layer lapse rates, inflow-layer moisture, and long hodographs is expected. Large-scale lift will strengthen through tonight across much of the southern Plains -- under the influences of low-level warm advection and midlevel DCVA. Also, as a 125-160-kt 250-mb jet extends inland across southern CA and northwestern MX -- behind the mid/upper trough -- its left-exit region and associated lift aloft should spread this evening and overnight across parts of central/south TX, where the steepest midlevel lapse rates (exceeding 7 deg C/km) are expected. These influences will extend atop a moistening and diurnally destabilizing boundary layer with surface dewpoints in the 50s F over northwest TX and OK, and 60s in the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country southward to the Rio Grande. Adequate deep-layer instability/buoyancy for surface-based convection is expected on either side of the dryline today, and along/ahead of the Pacific front tonight. Peak/preconvective MLCAPE should reach around 1000-1500 J/kg in a narrow, south-north corridor ahead of the dryline, diminishing eastward toward east TX. Low-level shear may be stronger over northern parts of the outlook, but with greater deep shear southward toward the more-intense mid/upper winds. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 02/02/2024
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date: 2024-01-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024
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date: 2024-01-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorm areas are apparent through tonight. ...20Z Update... An isolated flash or two still remains possible across southeast AZ this evening as well as over the Carolina Piedmont tonight. However, overall coverage in both of these areas is still expected to remain less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 01/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Downstream of a broad/weak southern-latitude mid/upper-level trough currently over the Baja Peninsula, morning satellite imagery shows an embedded disturbance tracking slowly northward across northwest Mexico. This embedded disturbance should generally continue northward within a belt of modest south-southwesterly flow downstream of the parent trough, with related lift overspreading portions of southeastern AZ by this afternoon. Despite increasing cloud coverage associated with this feature, ample diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid weak low-level moisture advection may support very weak surface-based instability (characterized by an inverted-V profile) across far southeastern AZ by this afternoon. However, given modest large-scale ascent and the limited buoyancy, any embedded lightning potential appears too low for a General Thunderstorm area. Farther east, a robust midlevel trough and attendant jet streak will continue southeastward across the OH and TN Valleys today. While strong deep-layer lift along a related cold front will favor a swath of east/southeastward-moving precipitation into the Carolinas, any pre-frontal elevated buoyancy appears too limited for a substantial thunderstorm risk. The one exception will be offshore of NC during the overnight/early morning hours, where heat/moisture fluxes atop the Gulf Steam will contribute to sufficient instability for thunderstorms.
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date: 2024-01-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Latest guidance continues to show some potential for areas of elevated fire weather conditions across the TX Panhandle into southeast CO/southwest KS, but recent fuel guidance continues to suggests fuels are not overly receptive. Additionally, localized elevated fire weather conditions may materialize across central to northern Florida as a dry offshore flow regime continues. RH reductions into the low 30s may coincide with 10-15 mph winds, but latest fuel guidance indicates fuels are near to below the 50th percentile. No highlights are introduced for now, but fuel and RH/wind trends will be monitored for both regions. ..Moore.. 01/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Tue Jan 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will move into the West Coast and parts of the Great Basin on Wednesday. A lead weak shortwave trough moving out of the Four Corners will lift northeast into the central High Plains. A modestly deep lee trough will develop in response in eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Some enhancement of southerly winds is possible from the Texas Panhandle into western Kansas. While RH could fall near 20%, current fuel moisture is too high for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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