(date: 2024-02-09 08:22:27)
date: 2024-02-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Feb 9 14:59:01 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-02-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 9 14:59:01 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-02-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Fri Feb 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ARKLATEX/SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur from the ArkLaTex region into portions of the lower Ohio Valley mainly late this afternoon and tonight. ...ArkLaTex/Southeast Oklahoma to Lower Ohio Valley... Embedded within broadly cyclonic southwesterly mid/high-level flow, a shortwave trough over the southern Rockies and south-central High Plains will continue northeastward as it deamplifies. Generally neutral height tendencies are expected atop a northeast/southwest-oriented composite frontal zone extending from the Midwest southwestward to the ArkLaTex/central Texas. Weak surface development is possible along portions of the front across the Ozarks toward the Lower Ohio Valley as the front becomes more eastward progressive later today and tonight. In the absence of any meaningful large-scale features affecting this region, it appears weak warm advection will be the primary mechanism, along with boundary-layer heating, for potential convective development later today. Gradual low-level moistening should continue across the warm sector through the period, with lower 60s F surface dewpoints developing a bit farther north prior to convective initiation. While forcing will remain weak, convective inhibition should weaken such that surface-based parcels should become buoyant by around 21-22z across southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within an air mass characterized by MLCAPE on the order of 500-700 J/kg. Forecast soundings exhibit strong deep-layer shear and profiles favor organized rotation, though low-level flow is not expected to be that strong due to the weak surface reflection along the advancing front. A few robust updrafts could evolve along a northeastward-expanding corridor from southeast Oklahoma/northeast Texas into western Kentucky/southern Illinois tonight. The most probable severe risk with this activity should be severe hail, although a few surface-rooted storms could also materialize and pose a damaging wind risk this evening. ..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/09/2024
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date: 2024-02-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across parts of southeast Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...01z Update... Strong 500mb speed max is translating northeast across IL toward northern IN in association with a midlevel short-wave trough that is currently located over the upper MS Valley. This feature appears to be influencing strong/severe convection over the upper Midwest, especially across southern WI/northern IL. Very steep lapse rates are noted north of the jet, due in large part to very cold 500mb temperatures, and some boundary-layer heating. While surface dew points have held in the mid-upper 40s, surface-based parcels have proven buoyant, and several supercells evolved within the aforementioned corridor of strong convection. Latest radar data suggests the strongest convection will soon spread across southern Lake MI where buoyancy is weaker. This should lead to weaker updrafts over the next few hours and the prospect for severe should wane with eastward progression this evening. ..Darrow.. 02/09/2024
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date: 2024-02-08, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Early in the extended forecast period, a strong western US trough is forecast to deepen over the southern Plains before ejecting into the central and southern US early next week. Strong low pressure is expected to develop over the southern Rockies and track eastward, bringing widespread precipitation to the southern and central US. The exception will be across parts of South TX. Here, dry and breezy conditions may support some potential for critical fire-weather conditions through early next week. Otherwise, active mid-level flow will favor a transition to cooler and wetter conditions through the remainder of next week. This will limit the risk for critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains to south TX... As low pressure intensifies this weekend, gusty downslope winds are expected to develop from the southern Plains, toward the Rio Grande Valley, and eventually Deep South TX. Sheltered from the highest expected precipitation, and within the dry warm sector, afternoon RH values below 25% appear likely from D3/Sat through D5/Mon. The combination of dry downslope and breezy conditions may support elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns through the weekend and into early next week. However, significant uncertainty remains regarding the availability of dry fuels. Preceding days of dry and breezy may allow for some curing ahead of the favorable meteorological conditions. Still, confidence in more widespread critical fire-weather conditions is too low to introduce probabilities. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns appear low through the remainder of the forecast period as much cooler/wetter conditions and weaker winds are expected to develop. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-02-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0112
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1048 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024
Areas affected...Northern Arizona
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 081648Z - 081945Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall with rates 1-2 inches per hour. Areas of
blowing snow with poor visibility.
DISCUSSION...A cold front currently located across western Arizona
will advance eastward this morning. Ahead of this feature, upslope
snow showers are ongoing with light to moderate snow being reported
in Flagstaff and across the Prescott Valley. Temperatures below 6000
feet are hovering just above freezing just south of the Mogollon
Rim. Ahead of the front, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in
place around 7-8 C/km. As the front advances eastward, snowfall
rates will increase as frontogenetic forcing increases along with
strong upslope flow along the terrain. Given the lapse rate profile,
some convective enhancement is likely, with heavy snowfall rates
around 1-2 inches per hour at times. Lower elevation locations where
dew points are below 32F may see quick snow levels lower with any
heavier precipitation rates. Given the strong southerly flow gusting
25-30 mph (locally as high as 40 mph), poor visibility is likely,
especially along the cold frontal passage. These conditions will
continue to shift eastward with the cold front, mainly along the
high terrain of the Mogollon Rim, through the afternoon and evening.
..Thornton.. 02/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...
LAT...LON 34611154 34831163 34921181 34921192 34671212 34401232
34381256 34701283 35011276 35321268 35411266 35501246
35501211 35461186 35361165 35161140 34981118 34921112
34711102 34481111 34431128 34611154
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date: 2024-02-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... Morning observations show wind gusts of 25-30+ mph and pockets of lower humidity becoming more numerous across the southern Plains. Winds should continue to increase through the day as a weak dryline mixes eastward. Locally elevated to near-critical meteorological conditions are possible this afternoon over parts of eastern OK/KS and western MO. However, area fuels remain poorly receptive to fire starts/spread, suggesting fire-weather concerns will remain localized. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse embedded in a broad upper-level cyclonic flow regime will impinge on the Plains states today, encouraging surface low development along the central High Plains. While low-level moisture will continue to return northward across portions of the Plains states, downslope westerly flow along the southern High Plains will support dry and windy surface conditions during the afternoon. While these conditions may reach elevated-equivalent thresholds in spots, fuels appear poorly receptive to fire spread, precluding the introduction of fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-02-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Thu Feb 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN IOWA EASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon through early evening across parts of far eastern Iowa, northern Illinois, far southern Wisconsin, and the southern Lake Michigan vicinity. ...Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough now crossing the Middle Missouri Valley/central Plains will continue progressing northeastward today and tonight, while a second feature now in the vicinity of the Lower Colorado Valley shifts eastward through the period. Meanwhile, upper ridging over the East will be shunted progressively eastward by the aforementioned advance of short-wave troughs farther west. At the surface, a rather deep (990 mb) surface cyclone is currently analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border intersection, with a cold front extending southward across the Middle Missouri Valley into Kansas. This boundary, and the advance of the upper trough, may support isolated late afternoon strong/potentially severe convective development across eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois. Elsewhere, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve across the Four Corners states ahead of the aforementioned upper trough, and overnight thunder may evolve within an area of broad/weak QG ascent over parts of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Severe weather is not expected in these areas. ...Eastern Iowa/northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin vicinity... Low-level moisture remains a primary uncertainty today, with respect to potential strong/severe storm development. Dewpoints remain in the upper 30s/low 40s across the Iowa/Illinois area, where model forecast soundings -- particularly the RAP -- have consistently indicated upper 40s to low 50s dewpoints by late afternoon. This degree of moistening still appears to be a bit aggressive, with middle to upper 40s largely anticipated. With that said, very cold air aloft/steep lapse rates will continue to overspread this region, and the deep-layer wind field is conditionally quite supportive of severe/supercell storms. At this time, we will maintain MRGL risk and all-hazard, low-probability outlook. A couple of storms may develop by late afternoon, in the eastern Iowa/northwestern Illinois vicinity, and then shift eastward/east-northeastward through early evening, before weakening. However, evolution of moisture through the day will be closely watched, as the more aggressive RAP model solution -- should it appear more likely to occur -- would require consideration for an upgrade to the outlook at 20Z. ..Goss/Thornton.. 02/08/2024
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date: 2024-02-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 AM CST Tue Feb 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... From Friday/D4 into Saturday/D5, models are in good agreement in bringing a large, positive-tilt upper trough eastward across the West and toward the central CONUS, with a persistent southwesterly flow regime across much of the East. Given this regime, a gradual increase in moisture and the development of weak instability is forecast across parts of the Gulf Coast region, with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances from eastern TX to the Carolinas on Saturday/D5. While predictability is low Sunday/D6 and beyond, the aforementioned upper trough may eventually amplify, and a wave may eventually move across the Southeast. Instability will be the limiting factor for severe potential, especially given the possibility of widespread clouds and rain. However, the area from the northern Gulf Coast to the southeastern Atlantic Coastal states is an area of interest going forward. If a trough amplification does not occur, the prolonged low-level warm advection regime with modest height falls may only result in marginal severe potential.
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date: 2024-02-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Mon Feb 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper-level pattern will persist on Tuesday, as a deep trough in the West, ridge over the central states, and a deep trough over the East all move gradually eastward through the day. Relatively low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be possible across parts of the Southwest and southern CA. While a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out from the lower CO River Valley into western AZ, weak instability should generally limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible near and offshore of the Florida Atlantic coast, as convection moves south-southwestward along the western periphery of a deep cyclone centered northeast of the Bahamas. ..Dean.. 02/05/2024
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