(date: 2024-02-17 00:15:15)
date: 2024-02-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong storms capable of hail are possible this afternoon and early evening over parts of Arkansas and west Tennessee. ...AR/TN... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving upper trough over KS, that will overspread the MS/TN valleys later today. A surface low currently over northwest AR will deepen and build eastward today, with strengthening convergence near the low/cold front. This will result in scattered afternoon thunderstorm development across central AR into west/middle TN. Forecast soundings in this zone show cold mid level temperatures (-20C or colder at 500mb), steep mid-level lapse rates, and CAPE values of 500-800 J/kg. This, combined with sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft rotation will pose a risk of a few hail-producing storms through the early evening. The threat should wane a couple of hours after sunset due to weakening instability. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 02/16/2024
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date: 2024-02-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CST Fri Feb 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No areas of organized severe thunderstorms are forecast over the conterminous U.S. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS today, as an initial high-latitude omega configuration over western Canada evolves into a full-latitude, open-wave, synoptic ridge. That ridge will extend southward over the western U.S. as well. The eastern portion of a shortwave trough -- initially over the northern Rockies -- will break away from the remainder of the height weakness footing the omega pattern and reach parts of southwestern WY, southern ID and northern UT by 00Z. The trough then should dig southeastward to parts of CO/UT by the end of the period. As that occurs, a weaker, downstream perturbation -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near an axis from HLC-AMA-INK -- will weaken gradually as it moves eastward across OK and AR, reaching the lower Ohio Valley and western TN by 00Z. What is left of this feature should accelerate eastward over the central Appalachians by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal-wave low near FDR, with wavy warm front across central parts of OK/AR to northern MS. An initial/weak cold front was drawn from the low southwestward over southern NM and an Arctic front across the southeastern TX Panhandle to northeastern NM. These fronts should merge through the day, while the low ripples rapidly east-northeastward along the warm front. The low should reach south-central/southeastern KY by 00Z, with trailing cold front across middle TN, northern MS, the Arklatex region, and south-central TX. By 12Z, the low should move offshore from Hampton Roads, with cold front over central NC, north-central GA, south-central AL, to parts of the north-central/northwestern Gulf. ...AR/Mid-South... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form this afternoon into evening over AR, along/ahead of the surface cold front, then shift eastward while backbuilding southward. A resultant band of thunderstorms should cross parts of western TN, northern MS and northern LA before weakening substantially late this evening. The strongest cells within the band -- especially early in the convective cycle when discrete storms still are possible -- may produce hail approaching severe limits and strong gusts. Severe potential still appears too low and conditional for a categorical risk area; however, an isolated, marginally severe hail report or damaging subsevere gust cannot be ruled out. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F already extend from the Gulf into the warm sector across parts of this region, and should remain in place as moist advection offsets any diurnal mixing. The return-flow regime will remain incompletely modified, so that the convective plume will outrun already modest moisture this evening while diabatic cooling takes hold. Time series of forecast soundings depict two simultaneous processes: 1. Effective-inflow parcels becoming surface-based this afternoon, in a narrow prefrontal corridor, due to warm advection and cloud-slowed diurnal surface warming. This should contribute to peak preconvective MLCAPE in the 300-800 J/kg range. 2. Veering of surface winds with time, reducing hodograph size, low-level SRH and low-level bulk shear. Deep shear will be marginal to favorable, even with veering of low-level flow. 0-6-km shear magnitudes in the 45-55-kt range are expected. However, effective- shear magnitudes are only around 1/2-2/3 that range, because the low-topped/compressed nature of the buoyant layer shunts the upper reaches of the calculation to below the strongest mid/upper winds. With the favorable kinematic and thermodynamic factors trending oppositely through the afternoon, and the regime already being somewhat moisture/buoyancy-starved, unconditional probabilities will be held below MRGL categorical levels for the time being. ..Edwards.. 02/16/2024
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date: 2024-02-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broadly cyclonic flow over the central/eastern states, a subtle mid-level impulse will advance eastward from the southern/central Plains across the lower MS Valley and Mid-South on Friday. A weak surface low is likewise expected to develop from the Ozarks vicinity towards the southern/central Appalachians by Friday evening. Modest low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s, should be present ahead of a front from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-South. As this front moves east-southeastward through the day, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop along its length. With mid-level flow largely paralleling the front, there should be a tendency for convection to be undercut and become elevated. Still, some chance for strong/gusty winds and small hail may exist with any near-surface-based thunderstorms across the Mid-South Friday afternoon, as weak instability and sufficient deep-layer shear may support modest updraft organization. But, overall severe potential still appears too limited to add low hail/wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason.. 02/15/2024
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date: 2024-02-14, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CST Wed Feb 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z From D3/Friday through D5/Sunday, an expansive post-frontal air mass will encompass much of the central CONUS, with cold surface temperatures generally limiting fire-weather potential. Thereafter, westerly midlevel flow will strengthen across the Rockies, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs encouraging weak lee troughing and the potential for dry/breezy conditions across the southern/central High Plains. This will especially be the case on D7-D8/Tuesday-Wednesday over the southern High Plains, though confidence in the development of critical conditions is low owing to continued model disagreement and marginal fuels across the area. ..Weinman.. 02/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-02-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0024 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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date: 2024-02-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 24 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM EST Mon Feb 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Extreme southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 1000 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...A band of storms with some embedded bowing/rotating structures will pose the threat for isolated damaging winds near 60 mph and a tornado or two for the next few hours. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Moultrie GA to 25 miles south southeast of Apalachicola FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Thompson
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date: 2024-02-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S CEW TO 30 SSW TOI TO 30 N DHN. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 22 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-031-045-061-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR COFFEE DALE GENEVA FLC059-091-131-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOLMES OKALOOSA WALTON GMZ634-635-636-655-121440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE PENSACOLA BAY AREA INCLUDING SANTA ROSA SOUND
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date: 2024-02-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BVE TO 50 S MOB. ..KERR..02/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 23 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GMZ536-121340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
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