(date: 2024-03-08 07:50:14)
date: 2024-03-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 8 15:22:02 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-03-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024
Areas affected...East TX into central/southern LA and southwest MS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 081520Z - 081715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some uptick in severe potential is possible through the
morning. Hail, damaging gusts, and a tornado or two will become
possible with time. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though
timing is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing this morning from parts
of east TX into LA. A convectively reinforced surface front is
draped from northeast TX into northern LA and west-central MS. To
the south of the front, rich low-level moisture is in place, with
dewpoints in the upper 60s/low 70s F. Widespread cloudiness will
tend to limit diurnal heating through the morning, but modestly
steep midlevel lapse rates atop the moist boundary layer will
support MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg through the morning, helping to
maintain convection as it generally spreads eastward.
Deep-layer shear is favorable for organized convection across the
region, though storms may struggle to mature due to the lack of
stronger heating and generally weak low-level lapse rates.
Eventually, a couple supercells may become established from east TX
into LA and perhaps southwest MS, posing a threat of hail and
locally damaging gusts. If supercells can be sustained, a tornado or
two will also be possible, especially from central/eastern LA into
southwest MS, where some airmass recovery is expected in the wake of
an earlier storm cluster, and 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 is
expected to persist through much of the day.
Watch issuance will become possible if the threat for maturing
supercells appears imminent, though the onset of a greater threat
and potential watch timing remain uncertain.
..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 30909589 32129550 32229415 32179289 31939137 31629037
31359017 30689035 30469123 30259235 30169287 30359446
30469504 30689574 30909589
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date: 2024-03-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado threat exists today into tonight from parts of Louisiana to southern/eastern Alabama. Large hail or strong-severe gusts are possible over the same areas and westward into parts of north and east Texas and southeastern Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow, astride increasingly phased northern- and southern-stream troughing -- will shift eastward across the central CONUS through day-1. Through this period, the southern-stream component -- with a series of vorticity maxima initially extending from the Desert Southwest to the southern Plains -- will remain more influential. The associated trough should reach central KS, the TX South Plains, and northern Chihuahua by 00Z. By 12Z, the northern part of the trough will reach the Ozarks and begin phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough digging southeastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. The southern trough will extend from the Ozarks southwestward over central/southwest TX to the Big Bend region. Several meso-alpha- and smaller-scale vorticity lobes (some convectively generated/augmented) should traverse the foregoing southwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed weak lows near ACT and ABI, which should consolidate toward the eastern low in the next few hours. A cold front extended south-southwestward to just downstream from DRT on the Rio Grande. A diffuse warm-frontal zone was drawn east-southeastward across east TX, central/southeastern LA, and the Gulf offshore from AL and the FL Panhandle. The cold front should reach to near a JAN-GLS-MFE line by 00Z, then from central AL southwestward across southeastern LA to the northwestern Gulf by 12Z tomorrow. The warm front will remain diffuse while shifting northeastward over southern parts of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle, ahead of a convective plume discussed below. ...TX/OK to Gulf Coast States... Multiple episodes of thunderstorms are expected across the outlook corridor today, with the greatest potential for well-organized, surface-based convection from parts of east TX eastward to near the GA/AL line, in and near the "slight risk" area. Severe gusts, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible. Potential appears to be tied primarily to three regimes, with isolated warm-sector supercell(s) possible south and southeast of them: 1. An initially elevated corridor of precip and embedded thunderstorms -- now apparent in composited radar imagery over portions of western/central MS and northern LA. This activity should persist and expand lengthwise somewhat as the foregoing airmass destabilizes today -- with sustained low-level warm advection in its inflow layer lowering the elevation of effective- inflow parcels to surface-based with time over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Modest lapse rates aloft will be offset to some extent by increasing low-level theta-e with time and with southwestward extent, as mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints spread east- northeastward through the day to meet the convective plume. Diabatic heating will be steady and modest, owing to persistent cloud cover, but MLCINH should decrease with time across much of the area south of about I-20. Favorable deep shear is expected (effective-shear magnitudes around 45-60 kt) along with variably large hodographs and 150-300 J/kg SRH in the lowest km. This will yield a favorable supercell/tornado environment, but dominant messy/training convective modes may limit overall organization of severe potential somewhat. 2. Thunderstorms initially in a band from north-central to south- central/southwest TX, near the I-35 corridor and the low/cold front, may increase severe potential as they shift eastward into the western fringes of the environment discussed above, through the remainder of the morning. Some of this activity may merge with the southwestern part of the initially separate first regime to create a very long swath of strong-severe thunderstorms by mid/late afternoon from southern AL to southeast TX. The combined swath of convection should shift slowly eastward/southeastward over the remainder of the outlook area into tonight, maintaining potential for damaging gusts and a few embedded tornadic mesocirculations. 3. An afternoon area of thunderstorms rooted in or just above the boundary layer poleward of the low and frontal zone, across parts of OK and north TX, and spreading southeastward with mainly large-hail/ isolated-gust potential before weakening this evening. Despite the cool surface conditions, some convection may be rooted at or near the surface, with cold midlevel temperatures nearest the trough aloft contributing to steep low/middle-level lapse rates and MUCAPE potentially reaching the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Strong mid/upper flow will contribute to effective-shear magnitudes of 40-50 kt, supporting organized convective potential. ..Edwards/Jewell.. 03/08/2024
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date: 2024-03-08, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Mar 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A dry cold frontal passage Friday will bring a much cooler continental air mass as far south as the southern Plains on Saturday, with mild temperatures and afternoon relative humidity largely above 30-35 percent. In addition, surface high pressure will keep winds generally light where fuels are the driest across southern Texas. As such, fire weather concerns are expected to be low across the CONUS on Saturday. ..Thornton.. 03/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-03-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 7 14:51:02 UTC 2024.
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date: 2024-03-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The previous forecast remains largely on track. The only appreciable change made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook was to expand Elevated highlights eastward into central Minnesota and northern Iowa. Here, the latest guidance consensus shows 25-30 percent RH coinciding with 15-20 mph sustained southerly surface winds for at least a few hours this afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A northern-stream midlevel shortwave trough will track eastward across the northern Plains, while an attendant surface cyclone and trailing cold front move east-northeastward across the Dakotas early in the period. Along/ahead of the front, a tightening surface pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a 45-50 kt low-level jet, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across parts of eastern SD, western MN, northeast NE, and far northwest IA. Here, 25-35 percent minimum RH will support an elevated to near-critical fire-weather risk, given the strong/gusty surface winds atop modestly receptive fuels. Farther south, midlevel westerly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies -- ahead of an approaching midlevel trough/low moving ashore over southern CA. The strengthening downslope flow off the southern Rockies, and related lee cyclogenesis over eastern CO, will favor 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 15-20 percent afternoon RH across the southern High Plains. As a result, elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2024-03-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 AM CST Wed Mar 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TO NORTH TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula and South Carolina, and late afternoon into tonight over parts of west-central to north Texas. ...FL... A warm/moist air mass is present across the central/southeast portions of the FL Peninsula today, where pockets of daytime heating will yield afternoon moderate MLCAPE values around 2000 J/kg. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to form across this area during the afternoon, tracking slowly eastward toward the coast. Forecast soundings suggest low/deep layer shear is not particularly strong, but given the favorable thermodynamics, a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of hail and damaging winds will be possible - especially near the east coast. The severe threat should diminish after sunset. ...SC... Multiple weak shortwave troughs are rotating across the Carolinas today. One feature is currently over western GA, accompanied by a cluster of showers. This activity will move into SC this afternoon, where daytime heating will help to steepen low level lapse rates and lead to at least marginal CAPE values. Low level winds will be quite veered and relatively weak. However, a storm or two may be briefly intense with gusty winds or hail. ...TX... Clear skies will lead of strong heating and steepening lapse rates across west-central TX today. Most CAM solutions suggest one or two storms could form in the well-mixed zone near San Angelo late this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates would support a risk of hail or damaging wind gusts in these storms. After dark, a strengthening southerly low-level jet would likely allow this activity to become more numerous and spread northeastward toward the Red River. The overall severe threat would likely weaken after dark, but could still pose a risk of occasional hail or gusty winds. ..Hart/Moore.. 03/06/2024
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date: 2024-03-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization, with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low. Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the 15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection through Friday night. The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day 5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast. Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15% severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day 6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS through early next week.
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date: 2024-03-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely for the remainder of tonight. ...Northern WI into Upper MI... Thunderstorms are ongoing early this evening across northwest WI, along and ahead of a cold front attendant to a deep surface cyclone centered near the ND/MN/MB border. Strong ascent in combination with steep low/midlevel lapse rates across the region has compensated for generally limited low-level moisture, though buoyancy remains weak, with MUCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. Small hail and gusty winds will remain possible with these storms as they move across northern WI into Upper MI and over Lake Superior through the evening. See MCD 187 for more information. ...Florida... A downward trend in storm coverage/intensity has been noted over Florida this evening, though an ongoing storm cluster west of Lake Okeechobee could pose a threat for small hail and gusty winds for as long as it persists. Substantial earlier convective overturning over much of the Peninsula and the loss of diurnal heating should contribute to a continued overall weakening trend with time tonight. ..Dean.. 03/04/2024
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date: 2024-03-03, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 PM CST Sun Mar 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z A relatively zonal upper pattern will encourage locally dry and windy conditions across the Plains states Tuesday-Wednesday, before dry and windy conditions increase across the southern High Plains later this week in advance of an approaching mid-level trough. Medium range guidance members show some potential for Critical overlapping winds/RH somewhere from the Texas/New Mexico border to the Rio Grande during the Thursday-Saturday period. However, the medium range members vary too much in placement and timing of the aforementioned Critical winds/RH for Critical probabilities to be introduced at this time. Nonetheless, prolonged dry conditions are expected to continue through the week across the southern High Plains, with no appreciable precipitation accumulations expected. As such, Critical probabilities or fire weather highlights will likely be introduced at some point later this week across the southern High Plains once guidance members show better agreement in the placement and timing of conditions favorable for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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