(date: 2024-03-17 14:40:58)
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 17 21:37:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 17 21:37:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z A persistent cut-off low across the Southwest will start to advance east toward the middle of this week. As this occurs, some light to moderate rain is expected across portions of the southern High Plains which will further wet fuels which are already mostly moist. Next weekend, troughing and strong mid-level flow will resume across the Southwest which will lead to warmer temperatures, drying and gusty winds across the southern High Plains. There is moderate consensus for the jet to eject across the Plains next Sunday which will likely bring dry and breezy conditions to the southern High Plains. This pattern will likely support critical meteorological conditions, but fuels will be questionable. If sufficient drying occurs late this week and over the weekend, critical probabilities may need to be added later, but at this time it appears fuels will likely remain too moist to support a large-fire threat by next weekend. ..Bentley.. 03/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible the remainder of the afternoon/early evening across the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...20z Update... The main change with the 20z update was to trim marginal severe probabilities across far southeast LA and the coastal waters south of southern MS/AL behind the ongoing clusters of storms over the northern Gulf. Stronger heating has occurred downstream from this cluster across parts of the FL Panhandle and FL Big Bend vicinity. While instability remain low (less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE), some potential for a few strong gusts will continue the remainder of the afternoon/early evening. Otherwise, the only other changes were to trim portions of the general thunderstorm probability over TX into LA/MS/AL. ..Leitman.. 03/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0116 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Through the day on Monday, the mid-level pattern is expected to be a longwave trough across the eastern US with a decaying cutoff low over the southwest US. This is expected to result in northwesterly flow across the central US. Perhaps some locally Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma, but fuels do not appear particularly receptive across much of this area. Therefore, no risk areas are outlined at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday. Additional thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the east-central and southeast Florida coast. Strong gusts and hail may accompany this activity. ...FL Peninsula... An upper trough over the Great Lakes and MS Valley will pivot east/southeast across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave perturbation in the base of the trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico shifting east across northern/north-central FL Monday morning. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase with southward extent across the FL Panhandle through the afternoon, with 30-40 kt 850-700 mb flow common ahead of southward-sagging surface boundary. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of north-central FL Monday morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity as it spreads east the first few hours of the forecast period. A more conditional severe thunderstorm risk may develop during the afternoon further south across parts of the east-central/southeast coast. The NAM appears to be an outlier with the strength of an EML, maintaining capping through the period. The RAP/HRRR/GFS show weaker capping around 700 mb with full erosion of the cap by afternoon. Given favorable vertical shear (0-6 effective shear around 40 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates (around 7-7.5 C/km) and MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg, at least a conditional risk for a couple of severe storms appears plausible. Large-scale ascent will remain weak over the area, and veered low-level flow will limit low-level convergence along the southward-developing surface front. If a well-defined sea breeze develops along the southeast Peninsula, this could allow for a few storms to develop during the afternoon/early evening, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. For this reason, have expanded the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to encompass the southeast Peninsula. ..Leitman.. 03/17/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html