(date: 2024-03-23 16:16:54)
date: 2024-03-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Areas affected...Northeast IA to the IL/WI border
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 221111Z - 221515Z
SUMMARY...A narrow band of heavy snow developing in north-central
Iowa should shift east across parts of northeast Iowa towards the
Illinois-Wisconsin border through late morning. Rates of 1-2"/hr
should be expected, but may remain of relatively short-duration at
any one location.
DISCUSSION...The north side of a high-reflectivity convective plume
across central IA appears to have finally cooled enough to maintain
all snow to the surface, per recent surface observations and DOT
cameras. 03Z SREF probabilities and 00Z HREF snowbands guidance have
been highly insistent that a relatively narrow (around 25 miles
wide) heavy snow band should translate east, likely centered on the
US-20 corridor per observational trends. This suggests heavy snow
will be of relatively short duration at any one location, but
snowfall rates should easily reach 1-2"/hr given the focused 700-mb
frontogenesis beneath the dendritic growth zone and the deep, nearly
isothermal layer just below freezing to the surface.
..Grams.. 03/22/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 42479377 42669334 42839235 42899085 42918998 42868936
42748915 42528915 42298930 42188951 42159017 42019145
42059249 42099316 42239373 42479377
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0281.html
date: 2024-03-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A highly amplified upper trough, with multiple embedded shortwaves, appears likely to continue progressing eastward across the western/central CONUS early next week. One such shortwave trough should move quickly northeastward across the Upper Midwest while becoming increasingly displaced from the surface warm sector. Another, southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to advance across northern Mexico and the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and Southeast from Day 4/Monday into Day 5/Tuesday. A consensus of the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance shows a somewhat slower ejection of the southern-stream shortwave trough, and related placement of a surface cold front. Accordingly, greater low-level moisture may not advance as far northward across the lower MS Valley as previously expected. The 15% severe delineation for Monday has been adjusted accordingly, and highlights the area where confidence is greatest that weak, but sufficient, instability will overlap with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. A risk of supercells/bowing line segments and tornadoes should exist Monday through Monday night from parts of east TX into LA/MS and vicinity, along and south of a warm front and secondary surface low development. The embedded shortwave trough should move north-northeastward across the lower MS Valley into the TN/OH Valleys on Tuesday. Greater low-level moisture (60s surface dewpoints) will likely remain confined to portions of the central Gulf Coast states, namely southeastern LA into southern/central MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. These areas will perhaps have the best potential for a continuation of the Monday severe threat into Tuesday. But, there are concerns that the convection will outpace the low-level moisture return. Will defer the possible inclusion of a 15% severe area for Tuesday across this region to a later outlook, pending greater confidence that convection will be able to maintain its intensity and remain surface-based. For Day 6/Wednesday and beyond, potential for a continuation of the severe threat across parts of the southeastern states becomes even more uncertain.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2024-03-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 21 23:51:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-03-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong wind gusts are possible from the northwest Gulf coast into central Texas. ...TX area through tonight... Elevated thunderstorm development is underway this morning over the middle TX coastal plain, near and just north of a coastal front. Per the 12z CRP/BRO soundings, the environment is sufficient for a couple of slightly elevated supercells capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch diameter hail and gusts up to 60 mph. The storms are expected to gradually grow upscale in the warm advection regime through the morning, with the likelihood that a cluster/MCS will evolve and move offshore toward midday/early afternoon. Farther west, a midlevel shortwave trough over west TX/NM will progress eastward to central TX this evening, accompanied by a weak surface reflection. Surface heating in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 55-60 F range will boost MLCAPE into the 500-1000 J/kg range across central into northwest TX. The destabilization and weakening convective inhibition, in combination with the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough, will support scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon (~20-21z). Steepening low-midlevel lapse rates and modestly long/relatively straight hodographs (effective bulk shear 25-35 kt) will favor a mix of clusters and some supercell structures capable of producing isolated large hail (1-1.5 inches) and outflow gusts of 50-60 mph. The convection will subsequently spread east-southeastward across central TX this evening and into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA tonight. ..Thompson/Grams.. 03/21/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-03-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/21/24 ATTN...WFO...CRP...HGX...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-039-057-089-123-157-175-239-285-321-391-409-469-481- 211340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BRAZORIA CALHOUN COLORADO DEWITT FORT BEND GOLIAD JACKSON LAVACA MATAGORDA REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WHARTON GMZ236-237-255-330-350-211340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS SAN ANTONIO MESQUITE AND ESPIRITU SANTO BAYS COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0057.html
date: 2024-03-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 57
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
625 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Middle Texas Coastal Plain
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 625 AM until
100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity this
morning while spreading east and northeastward near the middle Texas
Coast. A couple of slightly elevated supercells will be possible,
with the potential to produce 1-2 inch diameter hail and isolated
damaging gusts near 60 mph.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south of
Victoria TX to 45 miles northwest of Angleton TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26020.
...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0057.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may move inland off the Gulf of Mexico into portions of the northern and central Florida peninsula early Monday. Additional thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the east-central and southeast Florida coast. Strong gusts and hail may accompany this activity. ...FL Peninsula... An upper trough over the Great Lakes and MS Valley will pivot east/southeast across the eastern U.S. on Monday. Forecast guidance depicts a shortwave perturbation in the base of the trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico shifting east across northern/north-central FL Monday morning. Deep-layer westerly flow will increase with southward extent across the FL Panhandle through the afternoon, with 30-40 kt 850-700 mb flow common ahead of southward-sagging surface boundary. Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of north-central FL Monday morning. Gusty winds may accompany this activity as it spreads east the first few hours of the forecast period. A more conditional severe thunderstorm risk may develop during the afternoon further south across parts of the east-central/southeast coast. The NAM appears to be an outlier with the strength of an EML, maintaining capping through the period. The RAP/HRRR/GFS show weaker capping around 700 mb with full erosion of the cap by afternoon. Given favorable vertical shear (0-6 effective shear around 40 kt), steep midlevel lapse rates (around 7-7.5 C/km) and MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg, at least a conditional risk for a couple of severe storms appears plausible. Large-scale ascent will remain weak over the area, and veered low-level flow will limit low-level convergence along the southward-developing surface front. If a well-defined sea breeze develops along the southeast Peninsula, this could allow for a few storms to develop during the afternoon/early evening, posing a conditional risk for large hail and strong gusts. For this reason, have expanded the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) to encompass the southeast Peninsula. ..Leitman.. 03/17/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 03/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0115 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... During the day on Sunday, mid-level pattern will be characterized by a digging longwave trough over the central and eastern US with a cutoff low in the southwest US. This will promote cool, northerly surface flow across much of the central US and precipitation across parts of the southern High Plains. As such, aside from perhaps some locally Elevated fire risk in parts of southwest Kansas and northwest Oklahoma, fire concerns are expected to be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-03-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... ...SUMMARY... Local/isolated risk for gusty/damaging winds remains possible today from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle/Big Bend area. ...Gulf Coastal area from southeastern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend... A well-defined MCS with embedded MCV is moving eastward across the southeastern Louisiana vicinity late this morning, along the west-to-east synoptic cold front lying roughly across the Gulf Coast region. West of this convective complex, weak quasi-geostrophic ascent across Texas -- within a zone of modest low-level warm advection beneath minor mid-level disturbances moving through fast west-southwesterly flow aloft southeast of the Desert Southwest upper low -- will support occasional deep convection. However, aside from a couple of sporadic stronger storms and possibly brief/marginally severe hail/wind risk locally, risk appears too low to require inclusion of probabilities in the current outlook. East of the MCS, limited severe risk remains apparent across coastal areas, though the strongest storms should remain over the northern Gulf. Still, gusty/locally damaging winds may occur, warranting continuation of 5% wind probability as far east as the Florida Big Bend region through tonight. ..Goss/Weinman.. 03/17/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html