(date: 2024-04-12 17:34:03)
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 12 23:46:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0432
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0556 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024
Areas affected...Southeast North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 122256Z - 130100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Weak convection will pose a damaging wind risk over the
next 1-2 hours as storms approach the southeastern North Carolina
coast. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Weak, shallow convection migrating eastward across
southern NC has persisted over the past 1-2 hours despite a very
marginal thermodynamic environment (MLCAPE generally near 250 J/kg
or less per recent mesoanalyses and forecast soundings). This
persistence is likely attributable to lift ahead of a subtle
vorticity maximum. Despite the poor buoyancy, low-level warming has
resulted in steep boundary-layer lapse rates up to 7-8 C/km, which
is facilitating downward transfer of stronger mid-level flow.
Surface observations have reported isolated severe winds (59 mph was
recently measured at KFAY), with more frequent gusts around 35-50
mph. While severe winds will likely be confined to very narrow
swaths, the relatively more widespread 35-50 mph winds will pose a
wind damage risk. The onset of nocturnal cooling in the coming hours
will further limit convective intensity and should hinder efficient
mixing, but favorable forcing for ascent may maintain poorly
organized convection (and associated damaging wind threat) to the NC
coast.
..Moore/Thompson.. 04/12/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34377914 34667927 34977919 35247862 35497776 35557718
35517645 35307620 35117641 34847676 34567724 34347762
34147791 34107814 34287895 34377914
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0432.html
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A potent upper-level low will continue to move eastward out of the Great Basin into the Southwest and southern Plains early next week. A deep lee cyclone is expected to form Monday afternoon along the CO/KS border. The shortwave trough will lift into the Midwest/Great Lakes by midweek with the surface low following a similar track. Fire weather concerns are expected to focus within the southern High Plains during the extended period. ...Southern High Plains... Critical fire weather potential will increase as the trough begins to the eject into the region on Monday. Strong mid-level winds will overlap with a deepening surface cyclone to the north to produce areas of 20-30 mph winds along with RH that could fall to near 10% behind the dryline. Some areas have observed rainfall in the past few days which has helped reduce fuel receptiveness. Critical probabilities have been kept lower in those areas. As the surface low departs, strong westerly winds will remain across the region on Tuesday. As winds will be on a gradual decrease into the afternoon, potential for critical fire weather should remain lower than on Monday. The eastern/northern extent of potential fire weather concerns will be determined by where and how much precipitation occurs Monday afternoon/evening. With the upper-level pattern beginning to become rapidly less predictable by Wednesday, confidence in potential critical fire weather is quite low through the remainder of the extended period. There is a low probability that elevated fire weather continues into Wednesday across parts of the region. Trends in model guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM NORTHERN NEVADA TO WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana into early evening. A severe storm or two also remains possible across portions of western New England the next few hours. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. For details regarding short term severe potential across portions of the Northwest states, refer to MCD 430. ..Leitman.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Champlain/Hudson Valleys of New York into western New England... Showers appear to be increasing at this time across the Hudson/Champlain Valleys, ahead of an occluded front moving eastward across eastern portions of Upstate New York early this afternoon. A lobe of vorticity will continue rotating northeastward across the region this afternoon, on the eastern fringe of the upper low crossing the Great Lakes. Cold air aloft combined with weak insolation through breaks in the cloud cover evident in visible satellite imagery will permit additional/modest destabilization. As a result, low-topped thunderstorms are expected to develop across this area. With deep-layer flow somewhat unidirectional/meridional, but strengthening with height, shear will support organized storms and potentially a few rotating updrafts. As a result, a brief/weak tornado or two will be possible, along with gusty winds that may approach severe levels locally, with a few stronger cells and/or line segments. As such, a MRGL risk is being introduced across a portion of eastern New York and into parts of western New England. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #429. ...Parts of northern Nevada to western Montana... Ahead of the advancing upper low, daytime heating beneath steep mid-level lapse rates will result in modest destabilization, with degree of CAPE hindered due to scant moisture availability across this region. Still, with a few hundred J/kg mixed-layer CAPE likely by late afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. With favorably strong flow aloft across this area, a few stronger/sustained updrafts appear likely. With a very deep well-mixed boundary layer expected across the region, gusty downdraft winds -- enhanced due to evaporative cooling in the sub-cloud layer -- may reach severe levels in a few instances. This warrants continuation of the MRGL risk across into early evening. ...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic region... Scattered showers should diurnally increase from parts of the OH Valley across the central Appalachians to the Virginia/North Carolina area, with eventual/embedded low-topped thunderstorms expected to develop within the broader area of precipitation this afternoon. The convection will be associated with cold mid-level temperatures accompanying a shortwave trough, that is embedded within the broader cyclonic circulation across the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind the cold front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface given the anticipated well-mixed boundary layer, resulting in occasional strong/gusty winds with a few of the stronger convective elements.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle. Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO, western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon. ...Central Plains... As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture, sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in sustained winds and fuels exists here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1032 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 04/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... In the wake of the upper-level cyclone departing to the east, transient ridging aloft will give way to increasingly strong southwest flow over the southern Rockies. An embedded perturbation passing overhead will aid in deepening a lee trough over parts of the southern High Plains Friday. Downslope surface winds are forecast to increase through afternoon over part of eastern NM and southeastern CO. Dry southerly return flow is also possible across parts of the TX Rio Grande Valley. The gusty winds and low humidity will likely support elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Northeast New Mexico and southern Colorado... As flow aloft begins to strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, a deepening lee trough will bolster westerly surface flow over northeastern NM and southern CO. Dry downslope trajectories and daytime heating should support widespread minimum RH values of 10-15%. Overlapping with sustained surface winds of 15-25 mph, and dry fuels devoid of recent rainfall, several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of NM and southern CO. ...Texas Rio Grande Valley... To the east of the deepening lee trough, southerly winds are forest to increase through much of the day with the approach of the upper-level shortwave trough. With limited surface moisture in place behind the previous frontal passage, dry return flow is expected over parts of South TX and the central Rio Grande Valley. Periodic surface wind gusts of 15-20 mph and diurnal RH minimums of 15-20% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 12 15:35:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-04-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NEVADA...EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND FAR WESTERN MONTANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail may occur with thunderstorms over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, Idaho, and far western Montana late this afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Nevada into Eastern Oregon, Idaho, and Far Western Montana... An upper low over the eastern Pacific will dig southward towards the northern/central CA Coast through tonight, with a belt of moderately enhanced flow extending over parts of the Northwest. Low-level moisture across the northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies is expected to remain quite meager, with PW values generally around 0.7 inch or less. Even so, daytime heating should encourage a very well-mixed boundary layer to develop by later this afternoon as a surface low consolidates over northern NV. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon from parts of northern NV and eastern OR into ID and eventually western MT. With up to 500 J/kg of MLCAPE present amid sufficient deep-layer for some updraft organization, some of this activity could become strong to severe. Isolated severe wind gusts may occur with any convective downdrafts, as low/mid-level lapse rates will likely be quite steep. Occasional hail also appears possible with the more robust cores. Convection should weaken this evening with eastward extent into ID/western MT with the loss of daytime heating. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Low-topped thunderstorms should develop along a cold front this morning into the afternoon across parts of the Northeast. Poor lapse rates, weak buoyancy, and generally meridional flow at low/mid levels across eastern NY into parts of southern New England will likely hinder an organized severe threat from developing. A separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across parts of the OH Valley into the central Appalachians and perhaps Carolinas. This activity will be tied to cold mid-level temperatures associated with a shortwave trough embedded within a broad upper trough/low over the eastern CONUS. With generally west-northwesterly flow behind a front, instability should remain very weak. Still, enhanced low-level winds may reach the surface with a well-mixed boundary layer, and occasional strong/gusty winds could occur this afternoon. ..Gleason/Grams.. 04/12/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-04-11, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Areas affected...northern and central Florida
Concerning...Tornado Watch 104...
Valid 111433Z - 111630Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 104 continues.
SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms continues moving eastward
across northern Florida, where local severe-weather risk continues.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a loosely organized band of
thunderstorms extending from the southeastern Georgia coast
southwestward to the eastern Gulf of Mexico west of Tampa. Storms
have remained largely sub-severe despite very favorable deep-layer
shear, due to an overall lack of appreciable buoyancy. The 12Z TBW
RAOB shows a deeply moist airmass, but very weak lapse rates, with
several warm layers that hint at subdued updraft acceleration,
confirming the character of convection at this time per radar
reflectivity.
With that said, filtered heating through high cirrus ahead of the
convection has allowed heating to commence, with surface
temperatures having risen a few degrees over the past 1 to 2 hours.
Continued insolation/heating will allow destabilization eventually
permit more unimpeded updrafts, and a corresponding increase in
convective intensity/organization, aided by the favorable background
kinematic environment. As such, local severe risk -- including
isolated tornado potential -- should gradually increase over the
next couple of hours.
..Goss.. 04/11/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...
LAT...LON 27768404 28948331 29978264 31038152 31068090 29788094
27888228 27568338 27768404
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0420.html
date: 2024-04-11, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 AM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North and Central Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 730 AM until 300 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A pre-frontal broken band of storms will gradually shift east across the watch area through the morning and into the early afternoon. A few supercells and line segments will probably pose some risk for a few tornadoes and damaging gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Brunswick GA to 20 miles south southwest of Saint Petersburg FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0104.html
date: 2024-04-11, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 WSW PIE TO 40 WSW JAX TO 15 NE SSI. ..GOSS..04/11/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...TAE...MLB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 104 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-031-035-041-053-057-069-075-083-101-103- 105-107-109-119-125-127-111540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MARION PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA AMZ450-452-454-550-GMZ830-850-853-111540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0104.html
date: 2024-04-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 102
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
955 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Alabama
Florida Panhandle
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 955 AM
until 500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
SUMMARY...Conditions will become increasingly favorable for severe
storms as tornadoes as additional moistening and destabilization
occurs, with storms increasing ahead of a squall line, potentially
leading to multiple rounds of severe storms in some areas through
mid into late afternoon.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Mobile AL
to 35 miles east of Evergreen AL. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 101...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24040.
...Guyer
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0102.html
date: 2024-04-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-053-085-091-097-099-119-129- 131-101640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-101640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-101640- CW
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0102.html
date: 2024-04-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 101
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
600 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Louisiana
Central and Southern Mississippi
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 600 AM
until 100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A destabilizing airmass across the central Gulf Coast will
support an increasing severe thunderstorm and tornado risk this
morning into the midday. The tornado risk will likely maximize with
any supercells that develop within the warm sector as the marine
warm front advances northward. A squall line will move west to east
across the area with a risk for damaging gusts and the tornado risk
will likely focus with any sustained mesovortex or embedded
supercell.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 95 miles northwest of Meridian MS to 45
miles west southwest of Boothville LA. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 99...WW 100...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25040.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0101.html
date: 2024-04-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 102 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 102 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-013-023-025-035-039-041-047-053-085-091-097-099-119-129- 131-101640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BUTLER CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ESCAMBIA LOWNDES MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX FLC033-091-113-101640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-101640- CW
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0101.html
date: 2024-04-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW 7R4 TO 15 NW LFT TO 35 NNE LFT TO 15 ENE ESF. ..LEITMAN..04/10/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 100 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC045-055-099-101-113-101440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION GMZ435-436-452-455-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE VERMILION BAY COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0100.html
date: 2024-04-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 94 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GLEASON..04/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 94 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-091-099-145-161-187-209-213- 225-281-287-289-293-309-313-331-349-395-453-491-091640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COMAL CORYELL FALLS FREESTONE GUADALUPE HAYS HENDERSON HOUSTON LAMPASAS LEE LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM NAVARRO ROBERTSON TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0094.html
date: 2024-04-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 091348Z - 091545Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning.
DISCUSSION...Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly
low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region
of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across
parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity
across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced
outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south
of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating
remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and
northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will
foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very
large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread
east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for
severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the
outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch
issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in
coverage and intensity across central TX.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343
31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0395.html
date: 2024-04-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 94
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
940 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 940 AM until
500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several thunderstorm clusters, including a mix of
supercells and bowing line segments, are expected along a stalled
front across central Texas through the afternoon. More isolated
supercell development will be possible later this morning into early
this afternoon into the I-35 corridor closer to Austin. The storm
environment will support the potential for large hail up to 2.5
inches in diameter, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph, and potentially a
few tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Austin TX to 140
miles east northeast of Temple TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25025.
...Thompson