(date: 2024-04-26 08:51:08)
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Areas affected...central northeast Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261433Z - 261700Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form throughout the day,
and some are likely to become severe with tornado and large hail
potential. A watch may be needed by midday.
DISCUSSION...The morning FWD sounding shows a deep moist layer early
this morning, with 50 kt winds below 850 mb resulting in strong
low-level shear. Satellite imagery shows broken to overcast
conditions over much of central TX, with scattered to broken over
much of northern TX, leading to areas of heating.
The very moist air mass is already aiding early development of
storms between Austin and Stephenville, and indications are that
this activity will gradually increase during the day beneath a
persistent low-level jet. This will lead to a long duration of
moist, unstable and sheared environment, with a few supercells
likely within the developing cluster of warm sector storms, leading
to a developing tornado risk as the activity spreads toward
northeast TX.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31109646 31039777 31339853 31749866 32329848 32719829
33129802 33729636 33949543 33859483 33749425 33609404
33349396 32859407 32099463 31799507 31109646
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0525.html
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0139 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0139.html
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1010 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southeast Oklahoma
Central and Northeast Texas
* Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1010 AM until
600 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected increase in coverage and
intensity through the late morning and afternoon, with a few severe
thunderstorms possible. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few
tornadoes may occur.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 50 miles west of Temple TX to 65
miles north northeast of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 138...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0139.html
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 138 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 535 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Oklahoma * Effective this Friday morning from 535 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line with embedded bowing segments/mesovortices will pose a continued threat for a couple of tornadoes, damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch diameter through mid morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Tulsa OK to 35 miles east southeast of Mcalester OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 137... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25040. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0138.html
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S MLC TO 20 SE MLC TO 25 ENE MLC TO 25 W RKR TO 20 NW RKR TO 30 WNW FSM TO 25 NNW FSM TO 30 SSW UMN. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 138 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC077-079-127-135-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LATIMER LE FLORE PUSHMATAHA SEQUOYAH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0138.html
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHWEST IA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, isolated very large hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) and isolated wind damage will be possible, mainly this afternoon/evening from northeast Kansas/southeast Nebraska into northwest Missouri and southwest Iowa. Occasional severe storms are expected farther south into Arkansas, eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. ...Mid MO Valley to TX through tonight... A complex surface pattern is evident this morning with a cyclone in northern KS, a trailing dryline/Pacific front into western OK, and the east edge of the warm sector demarcated by a warm front from eastern OK into eastern KS. An ongoing QLCS with occasional wind damage and tornado reports is moving across eastern OK near the warm front, with an area of rain-cooled/overturned in OK in the wake of these storms. Farther north, an undisturbed portion of the warm sector extends across central KS. The eastern OK convection will likely persist through the day toward western AR, with additional expansion of rain/thunderstorms farther northeast into southwest/central MO. The OK/AR portion of this convection will be the most likely to maintain access to the surface warm sector through the day, where a mix of bowing segments or embedded supercells will be possible with all hazards. The clouds/rain will slow the northeastward progress of the warm sector, and northward advection of the overturned airmass in OK will potentially impact the breadth and quality of the unstable warm sector this afternoon. Assuming sufficient recovery during the day, there will be a window of opportunity for tornadic supercells along the dryline this afternoon/evening starting in northeast KS/southeast NE and spreading into northwest MO/southwest IA. MLCAPE at or above 2000 J/kg, boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid 60s, and sufficiently long hodographs with low-level hodograph curvature (effective bulk shear in excess of 50 kt, and effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2) suggest the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes with any persistent, semi-discrete supercells. Isolated very large hail (in excess of 2 inches in diameter) will also be possible, while the potential for a few damaging gusts will accompany any upscale growth into line segments this evening. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible today farther southwest into TX, in association with weak height falls on the southern fringe of the ejecting midlevel trough. The 12z FWD sounding showed only a weak cap, so the SLGT has been expanded some to the southwest to account for large hail/wind damage potential today. Storms will likely weaken by this evening as weak height rises commence and the remnant dryline begins to retreat to the west. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 04/26/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-04-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W GYI TO 10 WNW ADM TO 40 NNE ADM TO 15 N MLC. ..JEWELL..04/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-029-063-069-085-095-099-123-261440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COAL HUGHES JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0137.html
date: 2024-04-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 25 12:36:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-04-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 25 12:36:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-04-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Sunday - Northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley... Some severe threat is expected persist into D4/Sunday from northeast TX into parts of the upper MS Valley, as an amplified mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves from the Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region. Substantial convection on D3/Saturday results in some uncertainty regarding storm evolution on Sunday. However, guidance generally suggests that a strong mid/upper-level jet associated with the ejecting shortwave will overspread a relatively moist warm sector, with potential redevelopment of organized convection along/ahead of a cold front. There is some potential for the threat to be bimodal, with one potential area from eastern KS into northern MO and IA in closer proximity to the ejecting shortwave, and a separate area across the ArkLaTex vicinity, within a region of somewhat more favorable moisture and instability. However, with storm evolution remaining rather uncertain, a continuous 15% area has been maintained in this outlook, with some adjustments. ...D5/Monday - Southern Plains into the lower MS Valley... Guidance generally suggests that a low-amplitude shortwave trough will move across parts of TX into the lower MS Valley on Monday. There is some potential for this shortwave to impinge upon a region of moderate to strong buoyancy along and south of a weak surface boundary that may begin to lift northward across parts of TX/LA during the day. A few severe storms with a threat of hail and damaging winds would be possible in this scenario. However, uncertainty related to substantial antecedent convection and its effect on boundary placement renders predictability too low for probabilities at this time. ...D6/Tuesday - D8/Thursday... Spread begins to notably increase in extended-range guidance regarding pattern evolution by D6/Tuesday. In general, stronger mid/upper-level flow is expected to shift northward, through there will be some potential for shortwave troughs and related cold fronts to impinge upon a reservoir of richer low-level moisture and stronger buoyancy from the southern Plains into parts of the Southeast/OH Valley. Confidence in the details regarding any severe potential in this time frame is much too low for probabilities with this outlook.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2024-04-24, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will cross the Southwest during the day, while a related 60-70 kt southwesterly midlevel jet overspreads the southern into central High Plains. In response, a lee cyclone will rapidly deepen over eastern CO/western KS, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over parts of west TX. This large-scale pattern evolution will favor an expansive area of high-end critical fire-weather conditions across the southern into central High Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern into Central High Plains... Behind the dryline, strong downslope warming/drying and diurnal heating will result in a deep/dry boundary layer, characterized by surface temperatures in the 80s and single-digit to lower-teens RH. Here, a tightening surface pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening lee cyclone, coupled with mixing into the strong deep-layer southwesterly flow, will yield 30 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) across eastern NM into southeastern CO. While confidence is high in the development of these extremely critical meteorological conditions, a potential lack of abundant and very dry fuels precludes Extremely Critical highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 04/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-04-24, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-04-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail (potentially 2+ inch diameter) and gusts to 65 mph will be possible this afternoon and evening across northwest Texas. ...Northwest TX... Visible satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning indicate the initial stage of moisture return is occurring across the southern Great Plains in the wake of a frontal intrusion into the Gulf a few days ago. A mid-level ridge will increasingly become established across the central/southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains as a Great Lakes disturbance gradually becomes more displaced from the region. An associated cold front will move southward across KS/OK before eventually stalling tonight across southeast OK and northwest TX. Weak lee cyclogenesis will aid in maintaining a southerly low-level fetch across central into west TX as strong heating results in a sharpening dryline by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be most probable near the triple point 20-22Z. Steep lapse rates coupled with adequate moisture (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and veering flow beneath moderate westerlies, will support an initial supercell mode. Isolated very large hail of 2-2.5 inches in diameter will be the main threat, along with a few 55-65 mph gusts. ...Northern IL/southeast WI/Lower MI late this afternoon/evening... Have not changed the existing outlook for this region due primarily to consistency in model data and the forecast conceptual model not deviating. Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the Upper Midwest and this will continue southeast into the central Great Lakes by mid evening. An associated surface trough will likewise move southeastward, and this trough will be preceded by a band of rain with minimal buoyancy. Behind the rain band, surface heating with steepening low-level lapse rates and cooling midlevel temperatures will support weak surface-based buoyancy just ahead of a secondary frontal surge. Some low-topped convection will be possible late this afternoon through late evening from northern IL/southeast WI into Lower MI. The stronger storms could yield a localized marginal hail/damaging wind threat. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/23/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-04-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 04/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance east-southeastward from the Midwest toward the Northeast through the period, while an upper ridge encompasses much of the West. On the backside of the midlevel trough, a post-frontal air mass will infiltrate the northern and central Plains, where breezy/gusty northerly surface winds are expected. Over portions of southern NE and KS, these winds could briefly overlap 20-30 percent afternoon RH, favoring locally elevated fire-weather conditions -- given receptive fuels across the area. However, these conditions appear too brief and marginal for Elevated highlights at this time. Farther west, dry/breezy conditions are expected across the Southwest during the afternoon. However, fuels are generally not supportive of large fires at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-04-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z A relatively active fire weather pattern is poised to set up across the southern High Plains late this week through this weekend. By Thursday, the first in a series of mid-level troughs will approach the southern Rockies, with surface low development likely across the central High Plains. By Thursday afternoon, a dryline will surge eastward across the southern High Plains, with Critically dry and windy conditions occurring behind the dryline. For Friday through the weekend, the approach/passage of another mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will support continued eastward dryline surges over the southern High Plains, accompanied by Critically dry and windy conditions each afternoon. 70 percent Critical probabilities have been issued Days 4-6 (Thursday-Saturday) where Critical conditions should be most prolonged, and where fuels are most receptive to wildfire spread. Dry conditions should persist across the southern High Plains into early next week, though it is currently unclear if the surface winds will approach Critical thresholds. ..Squitieri.. 04/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-04-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of marginally severe wind gusts and hail, remain possible near the southeast Florida coast this afternoon. No changes were made to the ongoing outlook. A low threat of severe storms remains this afternoon for the coastal counties of far southeastern FL. Storms are ongoing near a weak boundary, with 1500+ J/kg MUCAPE present. Locally strong gusts or brief/marginal hail may occur over the next few hours, prior to storms moving offshore. ..Jewell.. 04/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024/ ...South FL... Visible satellite imagery shows a swelling cumulus field over the Everglades and South FL ahead of a southward-progressing cold front over the northern part of the Everglades. A mid-level shortwave trough located over the Carolinas/northeast Gulf of Mexico --embedded within a larger-scale eastern North America trough-- will continue east into the western Atlantic through the evening. Continued warming of a moist airmass across south FL will yield moderate destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in the vicinity of the front through the mid afternoon. Long, straight hodographs combined with more than adequate CAPE will potentially yield a couple of organized storms. An isolated risk for large hail and/or localized damaging gust will be the primary hazards with the most intense storms. This activity will push east of the coast by early evening. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across a large part of the contiguous United States.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html