(date: 2024-05-10 15:45:52)
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0748
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Areas affected...Parts of SC into eastern NC
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231...
Valid 102148Z - 102315Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 231
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for hail and damaging gusts will spread
southeastward toward the coast into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Numerous small cells (some exhibiting supercell
characteristics) have produced scattered hail reports in the 1.0 -
1.75 inch diameter range through the afternoon, within an
environment characterized by MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg and moderate
deep-layer shear. Any remaining discrete cells will be capable of
producing hail of a similar size into this evening. There has been
some tendency for gradually increasing outflow and clustering of
storms, which could result in a somewhat greater threat for damaging
wind, especially in areas from SC into southeast NC, where warmer
temperatures and relatively greater instability remain in place.
The primary severe threat should continue to spread toward the
coast, though a couple stronger cells could trail the primary band
of convection with an isolated severe threat into this evening.
..Dean.. 05/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 34788124 34877893 35867712 36077606 36037549 35497535
34667609 33737785 33257870 33227918 33417998 33608065
33768123 33868143 34148166 34788124
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0748.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough will slowly move east from the southern Plains into the Southeast through early next week. Showers and thunderstorms will spread eastward across much of the central and eastern US mostly along and south of the southern Great Lakes, with the heaviest rain likely from southeast Texas through north Florida and extending northward into the Deep South. Upper-level ridging will weaken over the West and shift westward over the Pacific as an upper-level trough moves southeast over the Rockies, and it will likely merge with a weak upper low over the Desert Southwest mid-next week. ...Florida Peninsula... Developing short-term drought with rapidly increasing KBDI values and ERC-Y values near or exceeding the 97th percentile on the southern half to two-thirds of the Florida Peninsula could lead to critical fire weather conditions next week. Little to no rain is likely to make it to central and south Florida through mid-next week, and minimum RH is likely to drop below 40% daily on portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to increase mid-next week as another cold front approaches, but the extent and magnitude of potential critical conditions remain uncertain. ...Southwest... Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Day 3/Sunday from far southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico into the Trans Pecos likely resulting in locally critical conditions. Near daily chances of isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers are likely across portions of northern New Mexico, especially over the higher terrain, through mid-next week, but much of the Southwest is likely to receive little to no rain into late next week. Winds are likely to increase again across portions of the Southwest mid-next week, with locally critical conditions possibly returning to lower and mid-elevations by the end of next week. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E SPA TO 35 SSW CLT TO 45 SSE CLT TO 40 NW FLO TO 35 NNW FLO TO 20 S SOP TO 20 N FAY TO 15 NW GSB TO 20 E RWI TO 35 ESE RZZ. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...ILM...GSP...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-017-019-031-047-049-051-055-061-065-079-085-093-095-101- 103-107-117-129-133-137-141-147-155-163-165-177-187-191-195- 102140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BLADEN BRUNSWICK CARTERET COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DARE DUPLIN EDGECOMBE GREENE HARNETT HOKE HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LENOIR MARTIN NEW HANOVER ONSLOW PAMLICO PENDER PITT ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND TYRRELL WASHINGTON WAYNE WILSON SCC017-023-025-027-031-033-039-041-043-051-055-057-061-063-067- 069-071-079-085-087-089-102140- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0231.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and eastern North Carolina Northern and northeastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of a weak cold front/surface trough, starting near the North Carolina/South Carolina border and then spreading eastward and southeastward through the evening. The storm environment will favor a mix of supercells and bowing segments capable of producing large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles south of Charlotte NC to 30 miles south southeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0231.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Discussion... Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook appear to be required at this time. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border).
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0747
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1205 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024
Areas affected...the central and eastern Carolinas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101705Z - 101930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are likely to develop after 18Z
over the central Carolinas, producing damaging hail and wind through
early evening as they eventually exit the Atlantic Coast.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a deepening trough extending
from southeast VA across central NC and into northern SC, with
temperatures heating into the upper 70s F. Dewpoints remain in the
60s F, but may gradually mix down a few degrees by peak heating.
Morning soundings show steep midlevel lapse rates in place, as well
as ample deep-layer shear with mid to high level flow of 50 to 100
kt. This combination is resulting in a favorable environment for
large hail, and perhaps a few fast-moving bowing structures with
damaging winds.
As of 17Z, visible imagery is already showing developing towering CU
over northern SC and into central NC. The presence of cirrus from
the MCS to the south may have slowed heating a bit, but clearing
should continue, aiding destabilization.
Scattered to numerous storms are expected to form over the next few
hours along the boundary, with both cells and congealing line
segments possible. Some of the more isolated hail storms may produce
large amounts of 1.00 to 1.75" hail, with cold, severe downdrafts
possible as well.
..Jewell/Thompson.. 05/10/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 36477580 36067555 35617536 35267540 34297619 33587712
33267817 33177918 33237939 33558008 33958119 34068173
34308213 34608220 34778200 34858121 35068026 35367944
35677864 35867814 36307714 36477580
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0747.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Saturday across portions of the Trans-Pecos and Far West Texas. ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing initially over the Upper Great Lakes region is forecast to shift eastward across the northeastern U.S. Saturday. Meanwhile, a low over the southwestern states is forecast to shift eastward across the Four Corners region through the period. At the surface, a front will continue progressing eastward across the western Atlantic, while lingering westward across the Florida Peninsula and Gulf of Mexico, and then west-northwestward across far West Texas and into New Mexico. A second/weak front is forecast to shift southward out of Canada into the northern Plains/Montana late. ...Southeastern New Mexico into western Texas... Daytime heating of a modestly moist (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) boundary layer across western Texas and into southeastern New Mexico, in the vicinity of a stalled surface front, will result in afternoon destabilization across this area. By late afternoon peak mixed-layer CAPE values should range from 500 to 1500 J/kg. This -- combined with ascent provided by the frontal zone, and southeasterly upslope near higher terrain -- should allow a few storms to develop. With low-level southeasterlies beneath moderate mid-level westerlies, shear sufficient for rotating updrafts suggests that a couple of supercells will be possible, which may linger into the evening while moving eastward toward the Concho Valley region of Texas. Large hail and locally damaging wind gusts would be possible with the stronger storms, before diminishing by late evening. ..Goss.. 05/10/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z Minor modifications were made to the Elevated area based on the latest forecast guidance. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorms may develop over and near eastern portions of the Elevated area. However, the probability of dry thunderstorms is low and confined to a narrow corridor in south-central New Mexico, which precludes introducing an Iso DryT area at this time. Otherwise, the previous outlook remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic as a second mid-level trough ejects into the Southern Plains tomorrow (Saturday). Surface high pressure will become established over the eastern U.S., promoting cool conditions while potentially appreciable rainfall occurs over the southern High Plains. As such, wildfire-spread concerns will be limited across most of the CONUS. Guidance consensus does suggest that 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will overspread 10-20 percent RH along the southern Arizona and New Mexico border area during the afternoon, where Elevated highlights have been introduced. Otherwise, locally dry or breezy conditions may prevail over the northern Plains or Florida Peninsula, where localized wildfire-spread potential may exist. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SOUTHERN NC/NORTHEAST SC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter will be possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and northeast South Carolina. ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying surface cold front. Surface heating in the wake of debris cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front. Thunderstorm development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward through this evening. The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of supercells and line segments. ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening... The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening later this afternoon. Additional storm development along the outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain, given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only weak/shallow ascent along the boundary. Overall, any lingering severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon. ...Upper MS Valley... A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through late evening. The stronger storms will be capable of producing isolated wind damage ...Edwards Plateau in TX today... Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited where storm formation is more probable. As such, severe storms appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international border). ..Thompson/Thornton.. 05/10/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z No changes are warranted and please see previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper low will meander over the Southwest as a mid-level trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. today, with northwest flow aloft prevailing everywhere east of the Mississippi River. As such, relatively cool conditions will prevail over much of the CONUS, with significant wildfire-spread potential expected to be limited over most locations. One exception may be central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula, where 10-15 mph sustained westerly surface winds, amid 25-35 percent RH, may overspread dry fuels during the afternoon, warranting Elevated highlights. A few other areas may also experience localized conditions favorable for wildfire growth. First, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may overlap modestly receptive fuels over parts of southeast Arizona into far southwestern New Mexico, which may promote locally Elevated fire concerns during the afternoon. Second, dry northerly surface winds will overspread the northern Plains behind the cold front, though any wildfire-spread that materializes should be localized given marginally receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-05-10, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW CTY TO 15 SSW GNV TO 30 E GNV TO 20 S JAX TO 15 W SSI TO 30 N SSI TO 35 E SAV. ..JEWELL..05/10/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...CHS...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC019-031-035-083-089-107-109-101440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY DUVAL FLAGLER MARION NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS GAC039-127-191-101440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMDEN GLYNN MCINTOSH AMZ354-374-450-452-454-470-472-474-101440- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0230.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 9 19:30:09 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW SEM TO 20 NNE SEM TO 10 ESE LGC. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 217 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-051-081-085-087-101-109-113-092040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK ELMORE LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL GAC023-053-081-091-093-107-145-175-193-197-209-215-235-249-259- 261-263-269-271-279-283-307-309-315-092040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CHATTAHOOCHEE CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL HARRIS LAURENS MACON MARION MONTGOMERY MUSCOGEE PULASKI SCHLEY STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WEBSTER WHEELER WILCOX
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0217.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 217
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
950 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Alabama
Central Georgia
* Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until
500 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Bands of strong to severe storms will likely continue to
push east-southeast across the Watch area through the early to mid
afternoon. A few supercells are possible ahead of the main
thunderstorm bands and will also pose a severe risk, including the
threat for tornadoes and large hail. Damaging gusts will be the
primary hazard with the thunderstorm bands, but a tornado may also
accompany any embedded stronger circulations within the line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
north and south of a line from 30 miles south southwest of
Tuscaloosa AL to 15 miles east northeast of Vidalia GA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215...WW 216...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 26035.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0217.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 218 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Intensifying bands of storms will move into the Watch area this afternoon and into the early evening. The stronger storms will probably include a mix of line segments and a few supercells. The more intense storms will potentially be capable of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west northwest of Savannah GA to 35 miles east southeast of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 216...WW 217... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0218.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VDI TO 20 NW SAV TO 35 WSW CHS TO 40 E CHS. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 218 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-267-092040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH TATTNALL SCC013-019-029-053-092040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT CHARLESTON COLLETON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-092040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0218.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern Oklahoma
North Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several supercells are forecast to move across the Watch
area this afternoon into the early evening. Large to giant hail
will be likely with any robust supercell and severe gusts are also
possible.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles southwest of
Wichita Falls TX to 30 miles east southeast of Durant OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
24030.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0219.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 219 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 219 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-013-019-033-067-069-085-095-099-137-092040- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA BRYAN CARTER COTTON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY STEPHENS TXC009-077-085-097-121-147-181-237-337-485-497-503-092040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON FANNIN GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0219.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 220 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Northeast Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorm bands will likely progressively move east-southeastward into the Watch area this afternoon and early evening. In addition to the possibility for damaging gusts with the thunderstorm bands, embedded supercells or embedded mesovortices may pose a tornado risk. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles northwest of Dothan AL to 30 miles southeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW 219... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0220.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 220 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 220 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC045-067-069-092040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DALE HENRY HOUSTON FLC031-089-092040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DUVAL NASSAU GAC001-003-005-007-017-019-025-027-037-039-049-061-065-069-071- 075-087-095-099-101-127-131-155-161-173-177-185-201-205-229-239- 243-253-273-275-277-287-299-305-321-092040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN BRANTLEY BROOKS CALHOUN
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0220.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
North-Central and Central Texas
* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop this afternoon into the early evening. Several intense
supercells are likely and will be capable of large to giant hail
(max diameter 2 to 4 inches) and severe gusts. The tornado risk may
focus along the west to east oriented wind shift draped across parts
of north-central Texas. Eventual growth into a severe cluster of
supercells with accompanying significant hail and wind hazards may
evolve towards the evening.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles south southeast of Dallas TX
to 70 miles south southwest of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 217...WW 218...WW
219...WW 220...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27025.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0221.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 221 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 221 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC035-049-059-083-093-095-099-113-133-139-143-193-217-221-251- 267-281-307-309-319-327-333-363-367-399-411-417-425-429-439-441- 092040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL DALLAS EASTLAND ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KIMBLE LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO PARKER RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD SOMERVELL STEPHENS TARRANT TAYLOR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0221.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE LGC TO 20 NNE MCN TO 25 WSW AGS. ..BENTLEY..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...FFC...CAE...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 216 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-021-033-079-125-153-163-169-171-199-207-225-231-285-289- 293-303-319-091740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BIBB BURKE CRAWFORD GLASCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JONES LAMAR MERIWETHER MONROE PEACH PIKE TROUP TWIGGS UPSON WASHINGTON WILKINSON SCC009-011-027-075-091740- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAMBERG BARNWELL CLARENDON ORANGEBURG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0216.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0728
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024
Areas affected...central/eastern SC...central/south GA...southeast
AL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 216...217...
Valid 091439Z - 091615Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 216, 217 continues.
SUMMARY...Leading convective line across the Savannah Valley may
necessitate an additional downstream watch issuance into the coastal
plain of South Carolina and Georgia in the near-term. Greater severe
potential is expected to evolve from upstream clusters and lines
shifting east-southeast from eastern Alabama, with likely watch
issuance into south Georgia.
DISCUSSION...A leading line of storms across parts of the Savannah
Valley into the SC Midlands has struggled to intensify with measured
gusts holding below 30 mph. However, full boundary-layer heating is
underway downstream to the coast. This coupled with a favorable low
to deep-layer shear environment per CAE VWP data will support
probable intensification of this line as it approaches the coastal
plain through early afternoon. An increase in damaging wind
potential, as well as brief embedded tornadoes may occur.
More prominent severe potential should emanate out of initially
semi-discrete supercells across parts of south AL spreading east of
the Chattahoochee River into GA, as well as an organized linear
cluster moving southeast from east-central AL. It appears likely
that further upscale growth will occur into this afternoon, yielding
a broader linear cluster/QLCS pushing southeast across much of
central and south GA.
..Grams.. 05/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...
LAT...LON 34028110 33908025 33977974 33857919 33557909 33157926
31708116 31078167 30868350 30988488 31518587 32598617
33098591 33388499 33248352 33478229 34028110
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0728.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 216 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and central Georgia Extreme western North Carolina Extreme southeastern Tennessee * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 545 AM until 100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An organizing complex of severe thunderstorms is expected to move southeastward astride an outflow boundary from prior activity. This will focus a corridor of damaging-wind potential, with a few tornadoes and isolated severe hail possible through the rest of the morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 45 miles north of Rome GA to 55 miles east northeast of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 215... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0216.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE CBM TO 30 WSW CHA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0727. ..GRAMS..05/09/24 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...FFC...MEG...OHX...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 215 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-015-019-027-029-043-049-055-057-073-095-107-111-115-117- 121-125-127-091440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE JEFFERSON MARSHALL PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0215.html
date: 2024-05-09, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Thu May 09 2024 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO PARTS OF THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT SLGT LABEL LOCATION ...SUMMARY... Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across parts of north and central Texas into the ArkLaTex vicinity this afternoon and evening -- including parts of the Dallas/Ft. Worth Metroplex. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging-wind potential will extend from east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, an extraordinarily long, more than continent- spanning, positively tilted trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery. The trough extended from an Atlantic cyclone south- southeast of Greenland, across Newfoundland/southern Labrador and southern parts of QC/ON, the Upper Great Lakes, upper Mississippi Valley, NE, the central Rockies, southern Great Basin, central CA, and west-southwestward over the Pacific. On the western segment of the trough, a remnant cyclone near FSD/YKN will dissipate shortly, while a closed vortex develops over UT and slowly retrogrades through the period. Meanwhile, weak shortwave troughs now over parts of MO/IA/IL will move eastward across the Ohio Valley region, in advance of a larger, amplifying shortwave trough now over Lake Superior and northeastern MN. A weak, but still potentially influential southern stream shortwave will move east-northeastward from southwest to central TX today. Picking up some convective vorticity and related amplification, this perturbation should accelerate eastward and reach parts of AL by 12Z tomorrow. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a diffuse frontal-wave low over central IL, with quasistationary to locally warm front eastward across central/southern OH to northern WV. A cold front extended from the low across southern IL to eastern AR, becoming wavy/ quasistationary through a weak low south of ABI, then cold again into the Big Bend region. This front, overall, will sag southward across TX through the period, but hang up for much of the day ahead of the low and around the DFW/SEP region, and across the Edwards Plateau. The Ohio Valley low is expected to move eastward to near the southwestern corner of PA by 00Z, then move/redevelop eastward across VA to near the Delmarva Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. ...North, central and east TX... At least a few supercells are expected to erupt in a high- instability environment this afternoon, along and southeast of the front. This activity will be capable of large hail -- some of it potentially 3+ inches in diameter -- as well as locally severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. The threat area includes the DFW Metroplex -- unfortunately, no stranger to swaths of destructive hail -- and areas southward/eastward into the Hill Country, I-35/45 corridors and Piney Woods. The airmass across the region begins the day quite moist, with surface dewpoints commonly in the low/mid 70s just southeast of the front, and mid/upper 70s over the Gulf Coastal Plain. Steep midlevel lapse rates, related to an EML, were sampled by 12Z RAOBs at MAF and FWD. This airmass aloft will remain over the region, with some subtle/reinforcing large-scale ascent possible ahead of the southern-stream perturbation. Meanwhile, the boundary layer should destabilize amidst strong diurnal heating, causing the cap to weaken considerably through early/mid afternoon. Development is possible as soon as late morning to midday near the front, over the Edwards Plateau, and midday to mid afternoon farther north near the low. By then, 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE should be common, locally near 5000 J/kg. Low-level flow should remain weak, but with enough easterly component southeast of the front to foster strong veering with height and long (sometimes nearly straight) hodographs. This will support splitting storms, with both left- and right-moving supercells offering the threat for significant (2+ inch) hail. Sustained storms could produce 3-4-inch hailstones, based on historic analogs and a 2D hail model applied to forecast soundings. With a deep troposphere and abundant inflow-layer moisture, deeply precip-loaded downdrafts are possible, with some midlevel momentum augmentation and related severe-gust potential. The wind threat could evolve upscale and start forward-propagating eastward into LA wherever early cells can aggregate into clusters. The supercell tornado threat is conditional, mainly dependent on local storm-scale processes such as mergers and boundary interactions. QLCS tornadoes are also possible with any MCS. ...Lower Mississippi Valley to southern Atlantic Coast... Ongoing, organized areas of thunderstorms over the Southeast, interacting with and focused astride baroclinic/instability gradients from outflow boundaries, will continue to offer damaging wind, a few tornadoes, and isolated severe hail through at least midday as they move across parts of northern MS, AL, territory eastward/southeastward toward the GA/SC coast, and perhaps northern FL. For near-term concerns, refer to tornado watches 215-216 and related mesoscale discussions. The related outflow/baroclinic gradient should serve as a focus for forward propagation, and perhaps initiation, of thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. Surface dewpoints commonly in the 70s F and strong diurnal heating south and west of the outflow boundaries will contribute to peak afternoon MLCAPE of 3500-4500 J/kg, only slowly diminishing through the evening and overnight hours. Given the very richly moist and favorable unstable environment in place, beneath parallel-oriented midlevel flow, one or two organized MCSs may result. A conditional derecho potential exists, depending on timing and location of upscale organization within this corridor. If a complex moves out of east TX, or develops far enough west in MS/LA and is sustained all the way across the remainder of the Gulf Coast States tonight, either readily could qualify. One factor that may limit overall wind potential is the gradual nocturnal stabilizing of the boundary layer. However, sufficient cold-pool organization, rear-inflow-jet development and forced ascent of the still-favorably moist air may produce enough of a vertical circulation throughout an MCS to overcome the nocturnal influence. At this time, too many mesoscale uncertainties remain to insert an unconditional 45%/MDT wind corridor, but that may need to be done in a succeeding outlook if convective guidance comes into better agreement and/or mesoscale trends warrant. A few tornadoes also may occur, especially near the outflow boundaries where low-level vorticity/shear will be maximized. ...Mid/upper Ohio Valley to Tidewater... Scattered to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Ohio Valley region, with damaging to isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail possible. Activity should occur in an environment characterized by steepening midlevel lapse rates ahead of the ejecting MO/IA/IL perturbations, modest convergence near and ahead of the surface low, adequate near-surface moisture with dewpoints in the 50s to mid 60s, and modest diurnal heating. MLCAPE up to the 1000-1500 J/kg range is possible. Though upper flow will be strong, nearly unidirectional profiles and lack of greater midlevel winds should keep effective-shear magnitudes in the 30-40 kt range over much of the area. Farther east/southeast, cool/stable air north of a damming/preceding frontal zone across VA and the Delmarva should limit the northern end of severe potential. Destabilization and available moisture will be substantially limited today in the nominal warm sector, between the damming front and a great deal of MCS/outflow activity to the south over the Carolinas/GA. Therefore, while thunderstorms are possible this afternoon near the max temperature hours, and deep shear may be adequate for a few organized cells, severe potential appears isolated and marginal at best. As such, severe probabilities over much of the region have been reduced. ..Edwards.. 05/09/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE CSV TO 35 NNW HSS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 203 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC003-011-021-023-027-035-045-071-087-089-097-099-109-111-115- 119-121-149-161-173-175-199-081640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER AVERY BUNCOMBE BURKE CALDWELL CATAWBA CLEVELAND GASTON HAYWOOD HENDERSON IREDELL JACKSON LINCOLN MCDOWELL MADISON MECKLENBURG MITCHELL POLK RUTHERFORD SWAIN TRANSYLVANIA YANCEY SCC021-045-083-091-081640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG YORK
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0203.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0695
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0956 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024
Areas affected...Eastern TN and western NC
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...
Valid 081456Z - 081630Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
continues.
SUMMARY...A pair of supercells will pose threats for large hail of
1-1.75 inches in diameter and damaging winds from 55-70 mph as they
likely persist east-southeast across the remainder of eastern
Tennessee and into western North Carolina.
DISCUSSION...A pair of long-lived supercells, the easternmost of
which appears to be the more intense of the two, are steadily
tracking east-southeast across eastern TN. The downstream air mass
continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures having warmed
through the 60s to low 70s over the Great Smoky and Blue Ridge
Mountains, and through the 70s to low 80s across the adjacent
Piedmont. This will support the eastern extension of the TN Valley
buoyancy plume which was characterized by MLCAPE of 2000-2500 J/kg
per the 12Z BNA sounding. While low-level shear will remain weak per
MRX VWP data, strong mid to upper-level westerlies will support
persistence of discrete supercells which may consolidate into a
cluster as they emerge east of the higher terrain in the early
afternoon.
..Grams.. 05/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP...MRX...
LAT...LON 36398306 36248183 35908136 35668125 35248147 35138202
35268304 35508386 35738461 36048458 36398306
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0695.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western North Carolina Upstate South Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1005 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, with both bowing and embedded supercell characteristics, will likely continue into the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward across eastern Tennessee into western North Carolina and the northern part of upstate South Carolina. Scattered damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter can be expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Knoxville TN to 10 miles north of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0203.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0204 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0204.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southern Illinois
Western Kentucky
Southeastern Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 1025 AM
until 500 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
SUMMARY...A supercell cluster in Missouri will likely persist
through the afternoon while spreading east-southeastward toward
southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri and western Kentucky, with
some potential for additional storm development this afternoon. The
environment will become more favorable for surface-based storms
capable of producing tornadoes (a couple of which could be
strong/EF2+), severe wind swaths up to 80 mph, and very large hail
of 2-3 inches in diameter.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles
north and south of a line from 5 miles south of Vichy MO to 40 miles
east of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 202...WW 203...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 29030.
...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0204.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme eastern Kansas
Western and central Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 650 AM
until 200 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Initially elevated thunderstorms erupting near the KS/MO
line will pose a threat for large to very large hail through midday
as individual cells move northeastward to eastward. A portion of
this activity may organize into an eastward- to
southeastward-moving, upscale-growing cluster with increasing
damaging-wind potential.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west southwest
of Olathe KS to Vichy MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see
the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0202.html
date: 2024-05-08, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CNU TO 20 SSE CDJ. ..GRAMS..05/08/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 202 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC011-037-081640- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOURBON CRAWFORD MOC011-013-015-019-027-029-033-039-051-053-057-059-065-077-083- 085-089-101-105-107-125-131-135-141-151-159-161-167-169-185-195- 215-217-225-229-081640- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN CARROLL CEDAR COLE COOPER DADE DALLAS DENT GREENE HENRY HICKORY HOWARD JOHNSON LACLEDE LAFAYETTE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU MORGAN OSAGE PETTIS PHELPS POLK PULASKI ST. CLAIR
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0202.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0196 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0196.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Areas affected...southern Lower MI...eastern IN...western OH...far
northern KY
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 072033Z - 072200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...As supercells spread quickly east-northeast from southern
Lower MI and northwest IN, an additional tornado watch/watches will
be needed prior to 22Z. This may also include a combined/separate
watch farther south in eastern IN/western OH ahead of supercells
intensifying over the Wabash Valley.
DISCUSSION...As mentioned in MCD 0679, an increasingly favorable
setup for supercells, a couple of which may be long-tracked, is
underway across northwest IN to the Wabash Valley. The northern
storms may being to outpace the rapid boundary-layer
warming/moistening that is occurring across northeast IN and
northwest OH into southern Lower MI. Nevertheless, the intense
mid-level jet will likely foster sustained supercells even as they
become slightly elevated towards southeast Lower MI. With backed
low-level flow and ample low-level shear (per IWX VWP data), the
tornado threat will remain prominent with any supercells along and
south of the surface warm front. A couple strong tornadoes are
possible.
..Grams/Smith.. 05/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...
LAT...LON 42758544 42698458 41898367 41398340 40538329 38478394
38308491 38688589 41048526 42758544
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0680.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0679
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Areas affected...eastern IL...IN...and southwest Lower MI
Concerning...Tornado Watch 195...
Valid 071953Z - 072100Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 195 continues.
SUMMARY...Additional supercells are expected to develop and
intensify from the Lake Michigan vicinity southward towards the
Wabash Valley. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible,
with the tornado threat increasing as supercells mature into
Indiana.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells have been sustained along the
IL/WI border and earlier across the south part of Chicagoland, both
of which should weaken as they progress across southern Lake
Michigan. Several additional updrafts are gradually maturing farther
south over eastern into southern IL and northwest IN. Richer
boundary-layer moisture and stronger low-level shear across the
Wabash Valley portion of the region, all render increasing concern
for one or two of these storms to become long-track supercells.
Within an environment characterized by STP around 3-4, potential
will exist for a strong tornado. A limiting factor though with
southern extent is the degree of mid-level warmth/dryness south of
the intense jet that is ejecting farther north across northern IL
into southern Lower MI. This also renders uncertainty with how far
south sustained supercell development will occur in the near-term
over the Lower OH Valley.
..Grams.. 05/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 42318646 42628604 42458555 42098515 41288504 40068631
38648677 38168743 38428884 38798902 39958849 40768846
41468802 42318646
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0679.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0205 PM CDT Tue May 07 2024
Areas affected...parts of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071905Z - 072130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated storms may develop by late afternoon, with a
conditional threat of very large hail. A small Slight Risk is also
being added to the 20Z convective outlook.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front from Dallas
southwestward toward Del Rio, with generally weak wind convergence.
Ample low-level moisture exists south and east of the boundary, with
70s F dewpoints and MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg. Convective
inhibition continues to decrease due to heating, as temperature rise
into the upper 80s to near 90 F.
Visible imagery shows increasing CU fields west of the I-35 corridor
from Austin to San Antonio, particularly along the west edge of a
thicker but eroding cloud deck.
Over the next few hours, isolated severe storms may form over this
small region. Relatively long and straight hodographs along with the
deepening moist boundary layer and very strong instability will
conditionally support very large hail. Splitting cells may occur as
well, with left movers also producing hail.
..Jewell/Smith.. 05/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30309952 30809874 31109823 31239787 31289741 30949691
30409700 29559766 29179831 29059965 29230010 29570021
29889996 30309952
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0678.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Northeast Indiana
Southern Lower Michigan
Northwest Ohio
Lake Erie
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until
1100 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A couple tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will likely move into the Watch
area through the late afternoon and evening. The more intense
storms, including the possibility for several supercells, will pose
a risk for large hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles
east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Lansing MI
to 40 miles southwest of Findlay OH. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 195...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0196.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SPI TO 10 SW DEC TO 20 NW CMI TO 35 NE BMI TO 10 ENE MMO TO 30 SE RFD TO 5 S JVL TO 20 WNW JVL. ..BENTLEY..05/07/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...IND...IWX...GRR...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 195 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC019-021-023-025-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-043-045-049-053- 063-075-079-089-091-093-097-101-105-111-113-115-139-147-159-173- 183-197-072140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY COLES COOK CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE KALB DE WITT DOUGLAS DUPAGE EDGAR EFFINGHAM FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LAKE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON MCHENRY MCLEAN MACON MOULTRIE PIATT RICHLAND SHELBY VERMILION WILL INC005-007-011-013-015-017-021-023-027-039-045-049-053-055-057- 059-063-067-069-071-073-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-107-109-111-113-119-121-127-131-133-141-145-149-153- 157-159-165-167-169-171-181-183-072140-
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0195.html
date: 2024-05-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 195
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Central and Northern Illinois
Central and Northern Indiana
Southwest Lower Michigan
Southeast Wisconsin
Lake Michigan
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to
develop and intensify this afternoon into the early evening. The
environment will continue to destabilize through the mid to late
afternoon across much of the Watch area. The stronger storms will
likely become supercellular and pose a risk for large to very large
hail, severe gusts, and tornadoes. A couple of the more intense
supercells may yield the potential for a strong tornado.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 100 statute miles
east and west of a line from 30 miles east northeast of Racine WI to
60 miles southwest of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0195.html
date: 2024-05-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Mon May 6 14:01:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-05-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0824 AM CDT MON MAY 06 2024 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Much of Oklahoma Central and eastern Kansas * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe weather with multiple strong, long-tracked tornadoes, as well as very large hail and severe thunderstorm gusts, is expected over parts of the south-central Plains from this afternoon through evening. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Grams.. 05/06/2024