(date: 2024-05-31 08:33:27)
date: 2024-05-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 31 15:30:16 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-05-31, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 31 May 2024 15:28:41 GMT
date: 2024-05-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSE LBX TO 10 W BPT. WW 359 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311600Z. ..DEAN..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 359 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GMZ355-311600- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0359.html
date: 2024-05-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 359
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Texas
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Friday morning from 350 AM until 1100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A squall line with embedded bowing segments will likely
persist through the morning as the storms move across Southeast
Texas (including the College Station and Houston metro areas) to the
upper Texas coast. Damaging winds of 60-75 mph will be the main
threat, though the strongest storms could produce isolated large
hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter. An isolated tornado or two may
also occur with circulations embedded in the line.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
College Station TX to 15 miles north northeast of Galveston TX. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 358...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31040.
...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0359.html
date: 2024-05-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...FROM SOUTHWEST TX TO THE TX COAST...AND ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms with large hail and damaging winds will be possible this afternoon/evening across the central/southern High Plains, from southwest Texas to the Texas coast, and across the Ark-La-Miss. ...Central/southeast TX to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening... An MCS that formed overnight in central TX continues to move southeastward toward the upper and middle TX coastal plain, with some continuing threat for at least isolated damaging winds and some hail (mainly west end of the MCS). Other convection has formed farther northwest atop the trailing cold pool, and these storms may also pose an isolated large hail threat. Once the convection moves off the upper and middle TX coast later this morning, a large portion of TX to the north of the ongoing storms will have been stabilized by convective overturning. Thus, have opted to remove some of the SLGT risk area across east TX. Farther east, lingering low-level moisture, pockets of surface heating later today, and the approach of remnant MCVs and a midlevel trough from the Red River Valley may support some uptick in storm coverage/intensity this afternoon from northern LA into southeastern AR. Potentially moderate buoyancy (assuming sufficient surface heating) and modest vertical shear could support a few semi-organized clusters and/or weak supercells capable of producing isolated damaging winds/large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Farther west, there will be some potential for additional storm development this afternoon/evening along the outflow boundary trailing westward into the Edwards Plateau and Trans-Pecos. Any storms that form in this corridor could become supercells capable of produce isolated large hail in an environment with steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate-strong buoyancy, and effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt. ...Central/southern High Plains through tonight... In the wake of overnight convection, clouds and weak northerly low-level flow are present across northeast CO. A weak upslope regime will become established during the day, and cloud breaks will allow pockets of surface heating (stronger farther south toward southeast CO). Potentially moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) and sufficiently long/straight hodographs will support supercells capable of producing large hail, while damaging winds will also be possible with any upscale growth into small clusters. A couple of storm clusters could persist into the overnight hours into western KS and the TX Panhandle in response to a weak low-level jet and associated warm advection. ..Thompson/Grams.. 05/31/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-05-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E JCT TO 25 W AUS TO 55 SE AUS. WW 358 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 311200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1092. ..GRAMS..05/31/24 ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 358 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC031-055-171-209-311200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLANCO CALDWELL GILLESPIE HAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0358.html
date: 2024-05-31, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311125
TWOEP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM
PDT Fri May 31 2024
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140
degrees west longitude:
South of the Coast of Southern
Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred
miles west
of the coast of Central America is associated with a
tropical wave
and is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development
of this system appears unlikely while
it moves slowly westward well
to the south of the coast of Mexico
through the weekend and early
next week.
* Formation chance
through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7
days…low…10 percent.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-05-31, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-05-31, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... Increasing west-southwesterly surface winds are expected Saturday across northern AZ and far northwestern NM, where fuels continue to become more receptive due to a lack of appreciable rainfall and persistent daily minimum RH in the low teens and single digits. Further east across FL, increasing easterly sustained winds around the base of a surface high pressure are expected to combine with RH of less than 35-40 percent, and ERC fuels exceeding the 85-95th percentile. However, meteorological fire spread conditions only warrant Elevated areas at this time. ..Barnes.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Thu May 30 18:00:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far southeast Colorado...and far
southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301757Z - 302030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over portions of the
southern High Plains. Severe wind and hail are the main threats,
with some instances of hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and gusts
exceeding 65 kts possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A
WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours pending
favorable convective trends.
DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation across the southern High Plains
continues to modify a post-convective airmss, with CU and attempts
at convective initiation noted from Union County, NM to Oldham
County, TX. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates that appreciable MLCINH
remains across the warm sector. However, continued diurnal heating
amid clearing skies should erode remaining CINH and support greater
storm development and coverage as the afternoon progresses.
Thunderstorm development is most likely along baroclinic boundaries
currently positioned along the NM/CO/KS border areas, and over the
western TX Panhandle.
By mid afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F in
most locations as 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the
southern High Plains, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. RAP
forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level
elongation and some curvature, but short segments in the mid to
upper-levels, limiting effective bulk shear values to around 30-35
kts. As such, multicells and transient supercells are the expected
mode of convection. Given ample buoyancy and at least modest
deep-layer shear, severe wind and hail still appear likely with the
more organized, longer-lasting thunderstorms. If a more robust
supercell structure could be realized, 2+ inch diameter hail could
occur. With forecast soundings showing the boundary layer becoming
potentially well-mixed to almost 700 mb, a 65+ kt gust cannot be
ruled out. Finally, ample low-level vertical vorticity is present in
far southeastern Colorado in the presence of a weak surface low. If
a thunderstorm can traverse this environment without becoming
quickly outflow dominant, a landspout or hybrid supercell tornado is
possible.
A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours if greater
thunderstorm coverage become apparent.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35910015 35270036 34990109 34960232 35130297 35790345
36500391 37130385 37730329 38300213 38330111 38150057
37610022 36950008 35910015
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1079.html
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1078
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected...portions of western and central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 301750Z - 301945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms organizing into a line or bow are expected
to develop and shift south/southeast through early evening. Damaging
gusts and large hail will be possible with this activity.
DISCUSSION...Convection is developing along an outflow boundary
stretching across the Texas South Plains into north-central Texas.
This boundary is being reinforced and shunted southward from ongoing
convection over northwest Texas. Low-level flow ahead of the outflow
is not overly strong at only about 10 kt from the south/southeast.
As a result, the outflow may continue to shift south through the
afternoon. This is resulting in some uncertainty, as outflow may
outpace developing convection along the boundary. CAMs guidance
differs in the evolution of the boundary and convection tied to it.
Nevertheless, a moist and very unstable airmass is in place
downstream. Vertical shear will also increase modestly through the
afternoon. As a result, severe thunderstorm potential from a
developing bowing line of storms is present. Severe gusts to 80 mph
and isolated large hail will be possible should a well-organized,
southward-propagating band of storms develop. Trends will be
monitored and a watch will likely be needed this afternoon, though
timing is a bit uncertain.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 30640074 30770095 31220136 32060142 32320128 32510111
32499931 32489822 32209786 31549745 31099721 30809717
30529720 30359740 30249759 30089876 30289971 30640074
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1078.html
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1077
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected...portions of north/east TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301724Z - 301930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage/intensity through
the afternoon. Strong gusts to 50-65 mph are possible, along with
isolated large hail.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop early this
afternoon across north into northeast TX to the south and and east
of an outflow boundary and ongoing line of storms near the Red
River. This activity is developing in a very moist airmass (low to
mid 70s F dewpoints). Strong heating into the 80s and midlevel lapse
rates near 7-7.5 C/km are contributing to strong instability
(2000-3000 J/kg). This will support robust updrafts, however,
vertical shear is expected to be somewhat modest with eastward
extent across northeast TX. As a result, stronger updrafts may be
transient and overall storm organization more messy. Nevertheless,
isolated gusts in the 50-65 mph range appear possible, along with a
few instances of large hail. If thunderstorm clusters can organize
via consolidating outflow/cold pool generation, a line of storms may
develop and shift east/southeast. If this occurs, damaging wind
potential will increase. However, this scenario remains uncertain.
Trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance within the
next couple of hours.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 31039591 30929647 31099719 31369767 32079791 32499797
32659782 32829753 32959647 32969558 32649491 32249468
31879467 31289509 31039591
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1077.html
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized clusters of storms may evolve by Friday morning into afternoon and pose a risk for severe wind and hail continuing across parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, Texas Gulf coast and Deep South Texas by Friday evening. Additional storms are expected across the central High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind gusts. Finally, storms are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley with the potential for a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... On Friday, a positively tilted mid-level trough will exit the Northeast US with a ridge building in its wake. Meanwhile, a broad mid-level trough will be present across the central CONUS with a convectively enhanced mid-level trough developing and slowly moving across Oklahoma and into Arkansas. A weak surface low/MCV may be present with this feature as it moves east through the afternoon and could provide a focus for a localized threat for a tornado or two. ...Central Texas to the western Gulf Coast... Considerable uncertainty remains with the presence and evolution of morning convection across Texas. There seems to be some consistency synoptically and with most CAM guidance for elevated convection to develop around 12Z in the Lubbock to Abilene vicinity. However, there is considerable uncertainty how this convection develops from here. A MCS from Thursday evening/overnight thunderstorms is expected to expand through the overnight period and perhaps maintain intensity to the Gulf Coast. Wherever the composite outflow boundary stalls from this convection, likely from the Edwards Plateau northwest to near San Angelo will likely be very unstable and strongly sheared with supercells capable of primarily large hail and severe wind gusts. The greater question will be how much recovery can occur north of this outflow boundary in the wake of morning convection. Therefore, the severe threat across central into southeast Texas is more conditional and may need modified once Day 1 convective evolution becomes more clear. ...Mid-Mississippi Valley... A MCV/surface low will traverse slowly across Oklahoma and Arkansas through the day on Thursday into a moist airmass. Forecast models which seem to correctly resolve this MCV show shear which would be favorable for mini supercells and low-level hodographs that could support a tornado or two Thursday afternoon/evening, particularly where some heating can occur. ...Central High Plains... Weak upslope flow and terrain circulations will support thunderstorm development across the Front Range by early afternoon. These storms will eventually move into an increasingly unstable airmass across the Plains with 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and around 40 knots effective shear and mid-to-upper level backing flow. This will support splitting supercells with a threat for both large hail and damaging wind gusts. The chaotic storm motion of both the left and right moving storms should lead to relatively quick upscale growth into one or more clusters with an increasing severe wind threat as storms move east. ..Bentley.. 05/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with large hail up to baseball size, damaging winds of 60-75 mph, and a couple of tornadoes are expected this afternoon into tonight across west/central Texas. Other isolated severe storms are possible today across east Texas, as well as the central Plains to Upper Midwest. ...Southern Plains... Multi-faceted mesoscale scenario exists across north Texas/southern Oklahoma this morning with a southeastward-moving small-scale bowing complex across western North Texas, with a history of isolated severe-caliber wind gusts early this morning. This is focused along outflow that extends west/northwest to east/southeast across the region, and is in the southwestern wake of an MCV across south-central Oklahoma at late morning. After a potential lull, storms may grow upscale and further intensify this afternoon across the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country of northern Texas, with related damaging wind and hail potential. This could include occasional severe outflow winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail of 1-1.75 inches in diameter. Related convective outflow otherwise continues to spread southwestward in the wake of these morning storms. Scattered severe storm development is expected near the dryline across a broad north-south extent of western Texas, including the Panhandle southward to the Stockton Plateau/Rio Grande. However, the aforementioned outflow, where it intercepts the dryline, will likely be a focused for somewhat more intense/concentrated severe storm development this afternoon/evening across the Texas South Plains and Big Country. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates, and effective bulk shear of 35-40 kt will support supercells with initial storm development this afternoon, especially within the aforementioned modifying outflow-focused corridor. The southern-most/more discrete storms will have the greater potential to produce very large hail near baseball size (2.75"), along with a couple of tornadoes if storms can interact favorably with zone of somewhat enhanced low-level moisture/shear along the residual outflow boundary. Upscale growth of these storms into another MCS is expected tonight, with occasional damaging winds and large hail continuing well into the overnight hours as storms progress generally southeastward into central/north Texas. ...Kansas/eastern Colorado/Nebraska... Prior convective overturning and lingering convection this morning in western/southern Kansas continues to cast uncertainties regarding the extent and magnitude as far as the regional severe-weather risk later today. Residual low-level moisture and surface heating in cloud breaks later today should result in sufficient destabilization for a few strong-severe storms with hail/wind, potentially within multiple sub-regional corridors. Mostly multicellular storms are expected as vertical shear through a deep layer will also be relatively weak. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 05/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-05-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Locally elevated winds and RH are possible on portions of the Florida Peninsula today. Additionally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms from south into central Florida could become a source for ignition due to lightning away from the rain cores combined with near record high KBDI and ERC values. Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. ..Nauslar.. 05/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... A late afternoon onset of localized elevated fire weather conditions will develop across portions of southern NM and west TX today. In particular, sustained westerly wind speeds may briefly approach 20 mph just east of the Sacramento Mountains, and in/around the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains. This is also where single-digit RH is again expected. The areal extent of these conditions, however, is too small to warrant an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1038
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...northwest OK into adjacent southwest KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 281513Z - 281645Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated hail to around 1.75 inches diameter is possible
the next 1-2 hours across northwest Oklahoma into adjacent southwest
Kansas.
DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning in
an area of low-level east/southeasterly flow beneath upper northwest
flow. Very steep midlevel lapse rates are supporting modest
instability. VWP data from KVNX shows elongated hodographs above 2-3
km amid deeper shear supporting transient supercells. This activity
will be capable of producing severe hail to near 1.75 inches over
the next 1-2 hours. With southward extent, overnight convection and
outflow has modified the airmass into parts of southwest and central
OK. The expectation is that this cluster of storms should gradually
decrease in intensity with southeast extent over the next couple of
hours. Trends will be monitored but watch issuance is not currently
expected.
..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37120086 37370057 37379996 37059909 36649837 36389809
36029812 35759826 35679865 35739918 36029977 36610029
36890069 37120086
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1038.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1037
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0900 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...northeast Texas into western Louisiana
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...
Valid 281400Z - 281530Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341
continues.
SUMMARY...Strong gusts of 45-65 mph remain possible with
east/southeast propagating bow over northeast Texas.
DISCUSSION...An organized and strong bow continues to shift
east/southeast across northeast TX along an instability gradient.
Recent radar data shows an outflow boundary associated with an area
of convection to the northeast of the bow surging southeast and
intersecting the bow near its apex. This may have a deleterious
impact on the organization of the bow over the next hour. The
strongest measured gust noted in the past 30-60 minutes was a 47 kt
gust at KTYR. Strong to severe gusts of 45 to 65 mph and isolated
hail remain possible in the near term. Trends will be monitored for
possible downstream watch issuance into parts of western/central LA.
..Leitman.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...
LAT...LON 32789552 32789526 32669462 32359382 32019327 31539304
31249306 31049323 31009331 30969358 31169455 31459513
31769560 32789552
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1037.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW TYR TO 15 NNE TYR TO 20 NE GGG. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 341 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC005-073-183-347-365-401-403-405-419-423-281540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA CHEROKEE GREGG NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0341.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 341
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
710 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Northeast and east central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning from 710 AM until NOON CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A storm cluster with embedded bowing segments and some
supercell structure will continue southeastward into east Texas
through late morning/midday. These storms will pose a threat for
damaging winds up to 80 mph, and well as isolated large hail of 1-2
inches in diameter. An isolated tornado or two may occur with
embedded circulations, as well.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Tyler
TX to 15 miles east southeast of Lufkin TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 340...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
32035.
...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0341.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 340
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
440 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
North central Texas
* Effective this Tuesday morning from 440 AM until 1100 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter likely
SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, including embedded supercells, will
likely persist through at least mid morning while moving
south-southeastward toward the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and areas
farther south. Swaths of damage with 60-80 mph winds will be
possible, especially on the west flank of embedded supercells.
Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter can also be expected with the
more intense storms.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north of Fort
Worth TX to 35 miles south of Corsicana TX. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 339...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
32025.
...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0340.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW SEP TO 20 SE DAL TO 45 SSW PRX. ..LEITMAN..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 340 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-035-139-161-213-217-221-251-257-293-309-349-379-425-467- 281540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOSQUE ELLIS FREESTONE HENDERSON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KAUFMAN LIMESTONE MCLENNAN NAVARRO RAINS SOMERVELL VAN ZANDT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0340.html
date: 2024-05-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE FSI TO 45 WSW ADM TO 20 SE GYI. WW 339 IS SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 281200Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034. ..GRAMS..05/28/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 339 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC031-033-075-141-281200- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COMANCHE COTTON KIOWA TILLMAN TXC009-077-085-097-121-181-237-337-485-487-497-503-281200- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER CLAY COLLIN COOKE DENTON GRAYSON JACK MONTAGUE WICHITA WILBARGER WISE YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE