(date: 2024-06-07 11:29:05)
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Jun 7 17:57:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024
Areas affected...north central into central Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 071754Z - 072030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm development, including or two
intensifying supercells, appears increasingly probable through 2-4
PM CDT. This activity will pose a risk for producing large hail in
excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally strong surface gusts and
perhaps a tornado or two.
DISCUSSION...Within deepening lee surface troughing, continuing
insolation and northward advection of low-level moisture on
southerly low-level flow are contribute to rapid boundary-layer
destabilization and weakening inhibition across the Nebraska
Sandhills vicinity. This is occurring beneath broadly anticyclonic,
but moderate to strong flow near the northeastern periphery of
large-scale mid/upper ridging. However, forcing for ascent
associated with weak perturbations progressing through this regime
is in the process of spreading eastward across the Nebraska
Panhandle. This lift is likely providing support for the ongoing
high-based convective development approaching the Sandhills.
As surface dew points continue to rise into and through the lower
60s, and temperatures warm into the mid 80s, forecast soundings
suggest that convective temperatures will be approached. It appears
that this will coincide with strengthening deep-layer lift, aided by
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection initially becoming focused to
northwest and west of the Thedford/Ainsworth vicinities by 19-21Z.
One or two rapidly developing and intensifying supercells appears
possible, in the presence of thermodynamic profiles characterized by
steep mid-level lapse rates with CAPE increasing in excess of 2000
J/kg and strongly sheared deep-layer westerly mean flow increasing
to around 30 kt. As the stronger storms mature, they will tend to
propagate southeastward accompanied by increasing risk for large
hail, and at least some potential for producing a tornado or two.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/07/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...
LAT...LON 42440193 42970083 42229881 41339913 41520055 41890128
42440193
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1188.html
date: 2024-06-07, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 07 Jun 2024 17:50:23 GMT
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN COLORADO EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND ADJACENT NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe storms -- and attendant hail/wind risk -- are expected from afternoon through the evening from the High Plains of Colorado southeastward to the south-central Kansas vicinity. Isolated severe storms will also be possible across the lower Missouri and Mid-Mississippi Valley vicinity. ...Central High Plains southeastward to south-central Kansas/northern Oklahoma... Afternoon heating/destabilization is forecast across the central High Plains -- particularly eastern Colorado and far southeastern Wyoming -- in a post-frontal, upslope-flow environment expected across the area. Isolated storms should develop over the Front Range during the afternoon, and with a rather deep/dry boundary layer that is expected, initially sparse convection should tend to grow gradually upscale through the afternoon. As a cold pool evolves, and given background west-northwesterly mid-level flow atop a developing southerly low-level jet, upscale growth into an east-southeastward-moving MCS appears probable. As such, risk for locally damaging winds, and hail, warrants upgrade to SLGT risk across portions of eastern Colorado and across western and south-central Kansas, reflective of this mainly evening severe-weather potential. Storms will eventually diminish in intensity overnight as the low-level jet veers through the end of the period. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/high-based afternoon storms are expected to develop over eastern New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle and South Plains region, near a weak lee trough/dryline, as daytime heating/mixing results in modest CAPE atop the deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms should remain isolated, but evaporative effects within the dry sub-cloud layer could support locally strong/damaging wind gusts with one or two of the strongest storms. Convection should diminish rather rapidly into the early evening, coincident with evening stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Ozarks/Mid-Mississippi Valley area... Ongoing convection/cloud cover is expected early in the period, as a decaying MCS is forecast to be moving southeastward across Missouri. Near and north of an associated west-to-east outflow boundary that should lie across the Ozarks during the afternoon, some potential for warm-advection-induced, isolated storm redevelopment appears possible. Conditionally, the environment would support risk for organized/potentially rotating storms, but with a likely-to-be convectively contaminated boundary layer, and questions regarding storm coverage, will maintain only MRGL risk for severe weather across this area. A few storms may develop nearer the outflow over the southeastern Missouri during the afternoon, and spread across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, but a less-favorable thermodynamic environment with eastward extent should limit severe-weather potential. ..Goss.. 06/07/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jun 7 17:47:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-06-07, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-06-07, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 071720
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
800 AM HST Fri Jun 7 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
Tropical cyclone formation is
not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Powell
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-06-07, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 07 Jun 2024 17:50:23 GMT
date: 2024-06-07, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071716
TWOEP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM
PDT Fri Jun 7 2024
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140
degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Cangialosi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...Update... A few minor changes were made to the Elevated areas for today. The latest NWP trends suggest a broader area of near critical wind speeds spreading into portions of far southern UT and south central NM. Similarly, dry south-southwest sustained surface winds near 20 mph or slightly greater will precede an area of showers and thunderstorms moving into the TX panhandle early this evening. ERC percentiles across both of the aforementioned regions are beginning to approach or exceed 80-85, and will overlap these hot, dry, and breezy conditions. Yesterday's rainfall across the TX Panhandle, however, has only resulted in a small extension of the Elevated area to the northeast. A small Critical area was considered near and east of the Black Mountains of AZ and Lake Mead region where localized funneling of south winds may occur, but slightly less receptive fuels have precluded the need for this addition. No changes were made to the IsoDryT area, and lightning is already being observed over far southwestern and western NM. Please see the previous discussion for more details concerning thunderstorm potential over the Southwest. Finally, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to increase over the Florida Peninsula today. Lightning strikes away from heavier precipitation cores could produce fire ignitions, especially over the western-south half of the peninsula, although recent rainfall is beginning to slowly result in relatively less receptive fuels. ..Barnes.. 06/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Along the western periphery of a mid/upper-level ridge centered over the southern Plains, diurnal heating amid a warm/dry antecedent air mass will yield 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest and southern High Plains. Over portions of northern/central AZ into southern NV, a glancing midlevel shortwave trough will promote 15-20 mph sustained south-southwesterly surface winds -- favoring elevated fire-weather conditions (given receptive fuels). Farther east over east-central NM into far west TX, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop in response to a deepening lee cyclone over the central High Plains, which will also contribute to elevated fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. Additionally, a plume of midlevel moisture will remain in place atop the dry/deeply mixed boundary layer across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains -- with sufficient instability for isolated/widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms. Deep inverted-V thermodynamic profiles will favor high-based thunderstorms with limited precipitation potential. As a result, isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible over the receptive fuels across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains especially from mid/late afternoon through evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas to western Missouri... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing across southern South Dakota, and in a more isolated sense across central Nebraska. A mid-level speed max/subtle shortwave trough over Wyoming and the nearby north-central High Plains this morning will continue east-southeastward, overspreading a warm sector later today that will narrow northward across north-central Nebraska near a deepening surface low and evolving triple point. This is where surface-based thunderstorm development will become increasingly likely by mid-afternoon (circa 20z across north-central Nebraska). As surface dewpoints climb through the lower 60s F, upwards of 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE will reside in this corridor by peak heating. Intense storm development including supercells can initially be expected in the presence of 50+ kt effective shear, highlighted by 50-80 kt mid/high-level west-northwesterly flow. Instances of very large hail (baseball size plausible) may occur, potentially also with some tornado risk, although low-level winds/SRH will not be overly strong diurnally (roughly pre-00z). Storms are expected to merge/congeal through early evening as they progress southeastward, likely growing upscale into a well-organized MCS that will evolve across south-central/southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas, and into western/northern Missouri and southwest Iowa by late evening/overnight. Scenario will be aided by a nocturnally strengthening southwesterly low-level jet and increasingly robust warm/moist advection. A corridor of potentially widespread damaging winds and wind-driven hail is expected. ...Southwest Kansas and Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles... High-based thunderstorms are expected to develop through mid/late afternoon near a south-central High Plains surface low and adjacent surface trough/diffuse dryline. This development will be associated with a hot/deeply mixed boundary layer with temperatures in the 90s/lower 100s F. These storms will progress into a region of somewhat greater moisture and instability through early evening, with storm organization potentially aided in proximity to moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft. At least isolated severe storms can be expected, with severe-caliber wind gusts and bouts of large hail possible. ...Great Basin... A shortwave trough is readily evident in water vapor imagery near the western Nevada/California border vicinity at late morning. Ample insolation and PW values between 0.50-1.00 inch may potentially support upwards of 750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon, especially across a broad portion of northern/central Nevada into southern Idaho and northern Utah. As thunderstorms diurnally increase in coverage and intensity, and low-level lapse rates steepen, effective shear generally 30-35 kt may allow for some sustained/organized multicells, with severe-caliber wind gusts possible with the strongest storms. ..Guyer/Gleason.. 06/07/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-06-07, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected across the central Plains region beginning mid afternoon. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary threats. ...Central Plains... The early morning water vapor imagery loop shows a broad upper ridge across the southwest US, with a shortwave trough topping the ridge over CO. This feature will emerge into the high Plains by early afternoon. Southerly low-level winds are transporting rich moisture rapidly northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southwest KS. A few hours of sunshine/mixing should result in a rapid jump of surface dewpoints into much of KS/NE, where strong heating will occur. This should yield a corridor of moderate MLCAPE by mid-afternoon (1500-2500 J/kg). Present indications are that intense thunderstorms will form over north-central NE by mid-afternoon in a strongly sheared environment. These supercell storms will pose a risk of all hazards for a few hours, tracking southeastward and organizing into a fast-moving MCS. As the storms track into eastern NE/KS and western IA/MO during the evening, model guidance suggests the potential for rather widespread damaging winds and hail. This activity is expected to weaken overnight as it tracks into southeast KS and southern MO. Given the increasing confidence of this scenario and the potential for a more widespread severe event, have upgraded to ENH. ...Southwest KS and TX/OK Panhandles... A low-level convergence/dryline boundary is expected to become established late this afternoon from northeast NM into parts of the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s or low 100s in this area, where scattered high-based afternoon thunderstorms will develop. A deeply mixed boundary-layer, strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, and sufficient CAPE will result in a few severe storms through the early evening. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main concern, although some hail is also possible. ...Great Basin... A well-defined shortwave trough is currently over central CA moving eastward. Lift associated with this trough, coupled with increasing mid-level moisture across the Great Basin depicted in water vapor imagery, will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms over central/eastern NV. This activity will track eastward into parts of UT during the peak heating period. Forecast soundings show very steep low and mid level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for damaging wind gusts in the more intense storms. ..Hart/Bentley.. 06/07/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-06-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES...NORTHEAST...MID-ATLANTIC...PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong storms are possible across portions of the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, parts of southern and coastal Texas, and southern Mississippi. ...20z Update... Minor adjustments were made to the MRGL areas across northern IN and LA/MS where morning/afternoon thunderstorms have moved eastward. Marginal risks continue across portions of MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic, TX/LA/MS, and ME/NH. A few thunderstorms with transient rotation have been observed across Central and Eastern Virginia. See MCD 1175 for more information. Thunderstorm development is expected to increase in coverage across portions of MN/WI through the rest of the afternoon. Daytime heating has yielded MLCAPE around 500 J/kg as mid-level flow increases from a speed max moving through the trough located across Canada into the Great Lakes region. Deep layer shear will increase across the region, mainly across southern MN into northern IA, which may allow for a few more organized clusters capable of damaging winds and hail through the afternoon. The Marginal Risk handles this threat well, with no changes needed this afternoon. ..Thornton/Dean.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes/mid MS Valley with the primary vorticity lobe rotating northeastward through the Upper Great Lakes through the early evening. A blocking pattern located over the Northeast into Quebec will weaken as a mid-level speed max moves quickly from the western Dakotas southeastward into the southern Great Lakes by early Thursday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will arc southeastward into the Great Lakes from an occluded low over Manitoba/western Ontario. The trailing portion of the front will progress eastward across the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, while the convectively augmented effective front stalls over the northwest Gulf Coast states. ...MN/WI to the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening... Surface heating and lingering boundary-layer moisture will contribute to weak-moderate buoyancy in an environment with sufficient westerly deep-layer shear/hodograph length for scattered, low-topped cells to produce isolated severe gusts and marginally severe hail this afternoon across MN/WI. Farther southeast over the southern Great Lakes/OH Valley, ascent associated with the aforementioned Great Lakes mid-level disturbance will aid in storm development this afternoon as heating weakens convective inhibition. Relatively moist low levels (surface dewpoints 65-70 deg F) will contribute to MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Moderate deep-layer vertical shear (effective bulk shear 20-30 kt) along with poor midlevel lapse rates around 6 C/km, will favor mostly strong to locally severe multicells. Isolated 50-65 mph gusts and marginally severe hail are the primary hazards. Remnant, convectively enhanced midlevel troughs will move east-northeastward from WV and AL, coincident with the diurnal heating cycle near and east of the Appalachians. Widely scattered storm clusters will be possible this afternoon from GA into the western Carolinas, but poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit any severe threat. Though lapse rates will be similarly poor into the Mid-Atlantic, there will be a zone of stronger low-level shear/hodograph curvature across northern VA/MD in advance of the MCV approaching from WV. Here, a few weakly rotating storms could produce isolated wind damage and a brief/weak tornado. ...TX/LA/MS... Remnant MCS will continue to push southward through the middle TX coast through early afternoon and offshore the southwest LA coast. Several observation sites late this morning recorded strong gusts (40-45 kt) but the overall displacement of the gust front from the thunderstorm cores will likely limit gust potential. A few storms may develop farther west this afternoon/evening along the trailing outflow boundary in the area around DRT. Large CAPE/steep lapse rates will support both strong updrafts and downdrafts, though weak vertical shear will generally limit storm longevity and the magnitude of any hail/wind threat. Farther east over LA/MS, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the residual outflow. An isolated hail/wind threat may develop with the stronger storms as one or two clusters develops by mid-late afternoon and early evening. ...ME/NH this afternoon... Downstream of shortwave ridging in the midlevels, a weak northwest flow regime will persist this afternoon over northern New England. Lingering low-level moisture, surface heating in cloud breaks southeast of the higher terrain, and very subtle midlevel vorticity maxima will support a few thunderstorms this afternoon across southern/eastern ME and part of NH. The latest forecast soundings show MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and effective bulk shear near 25 kt (with longer hodographs aloft) will be sufficient for semi-organized storms capable of producing isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail for a few hours this afternoon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-06-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1176
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024
Areas affected...much of central Minnesota into northwestern
Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 052002Z - 052200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm activity will continue to develop
and overspread the region through 5-7 PM CDT, accompanied by locally
strong to severe surface gusts.
DISCUSSION...Mid-level cooling and lift within the exit region of a
seasonably strong (70-90 kt around 500 mb) jet digging across the
northern Great Plains is contributing to steepening
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates spreading east-southeast of the
Red River Valley through much of northern and central Minnesota.
Beneath this regime, a deepening mixed boundary layer remains
sufficiently moist to support CAPE in excess of 500 J/kg, with an
increase in thunderstorm development ongoing in the wake of
preceding thunderstorm activity overspreading the Minnesota
Arrowhead through northwestern Wisconsin vicinity. As thunderstorms
continue to slowly increase in number and intensify in the peak
afternoon heating, downward mixing of stronger momentum to the
surface will contribute to increasing potential for strong to widely
scattered severe gusts, particularly with storms overspreading
central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin through 22-00Z.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 47189448 46009091 44799147 44679366 45179535 46159662
47189448
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1176.html
date: 2024-06-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1175
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024
Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051925Z - 052130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with a
risk of isolated gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado or
two. Limited areal coverage and brief nature of risk suggests a
watch will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...A band of scattered showers and occasional
thunderstorms is spreading northeastward across eastern VA into
eastern MD. In the wake of this activity, strong daytime heating is
leading to destabilization of a rather moist air mass across central
VA, where MLCAPE values have risen into the 1000-1500 J/kg range.
Model guidance suggests the approach of a weak mid-level shortwave
trough, with an accompanied increase in low-level winds. This will
result in some strengthening of shear profiles and a greater chance
of a few more organized or weak supercellular storms in the coming
hours. Locally damaging wind gusts are the most likely concern, but
a brief tornado or two are also possible through the afternoon.
Given the limited nature of the threat, a ww is not currently
anticipated.
..Hart/Smith.. 06/05/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
LAT...LON 37327936 37977927 38657874 39097812 38937733 38577696
37727685 36977749 36747831 36907913 37327936
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1175.html
date: 2024-06-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid. Please see the discussion below for additional details. It will remain hot and dry across the Southwest, but relatively low sustained wind speeds will limit the overall potential for elevated fire spread conditions. Some localized, short-lived elevated conditions may develop late Thursday afternoon in and around the Gila Mountains of AZ. ..Barnes.. 06/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS. As the ridge continues to build, a weak cold front will continue westward at the surface bringing moisture into parts of the southern Rockies and High Plains. With weak surface winds and increasing moisture, dry and windy fire-weather conditions appear limited in coverage. However, some potential may exist for lightning ignitions from high-based storms. ...Southwest Dry Thunderstorms... As the backdoor cold front continues to weaken over eastern NM and far west TX, low-level moisture will gradually move westward into the southern Rockies beneath the upper ridge. While forcing aloft appears very weak, with the majority of the upper flow displaced north, orographic ascent and diurnal heating may be sufficient to support isolated thunderstorm coverage from parts of eastern AZ to northern NM. Model soundings show deep and well-mixed boundary layers are present beneath weak buoyancy. This strongly suggests any storms that do form will be high-based with little potential for wetting rainfall. Dry lightning strikes with ignition potential appear possible given the receptive nature of fuels over parts of NM and AZ. However, height rises aloft and little to no forcing for ascent casts considerable uncertainty on storm coverage. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-06-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1173
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024
Areas affected...parts of southeastern lower Michigan...northwestern
Ohio...northeastern and central Indiana...southern Illinois
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051538Z - 051815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms may continue to slowly
strengthen and organize while spreading east-northeastward across
the region accompanied by strong to, perhaps, occasionally severe
gusts. While the overall severe threat still appears generally
marginal in nature, trends are being monitored and it might not be
out of the question that a severe weather watch could become
necessary for at least a portion of the area.
DISCUSSION...Convection has been slowly intensifying on the leading
edge of the convectively generated cold pool which trails a compact,
but well-defined mesoscale convective vortex currently migrating
east-northeastward through northern Indiana. This appears to be
embedded within 30+ kt west-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, near
the base of negatively tilted large-scale mid-level trough forecast
to continue slowly pivoting toward the lower Great Lakes region, and
through the Ohio Valley, into this afternoon.
A seasonably moist boundary-layer, including mid 60s to near 70F
surface dew points, is destabilizing to the east and south of the
convective outflow, and, as updraft inflow becomes characterized by
increasing CAPE, there appears potential for further intensification
of this convective cluster as it approaches the western Lake Erie
vicinity. The trailing outflow has become quasi-stationary
southwestward and westward into central Illinois, where new
thunderstorm development appears to be occurring to the north of
Salem. This appears supported by an area of favorable enhanced
mid/upper forcing for ascent, and the downstream environment appears
conducive to similar intensification and organization which has
occurred with the lead cluster.
With continuing thunderstorm intensification, and modest further
steepening of low-level rates in advance of the convection with
continuing insolation, the potential for strong to widely scattered
severe surface gusts seems likely to increase through 17-19Z. While
most peak gusts might remain near or below 50 kts, some might become
locally damaging.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/05/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 41018643 42368324 42048245 41208255 40348349 39988444
39338604 38438780 37858893 37968989 38788920 39498877
40418672 41018643
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1173.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024
Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391...
Valid 042155Z - 042330Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391
continues.
SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts up to 60-65 mph and localized
instances of marginally severe hail near 0.75-1.25" in diameter may
continue to accompany a linear complex of thunderstorms through this
evening.
DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery show an MCS
progressing east-southeastward across portions of southern LA and
southern MS. A moderately unstable air mass remains in place ahead
of this system, where diurnal heating has resulted in surface
temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and 90s, with dewpoints
generally in the mid 70s. Recent trends from the POE VAD profiler
indicate westerly 0-3 km shear has increased to around 50 kt over
the past 30 minutes behind the system. This may support an
increasing opportunity for bowing segments, and damaging wind gusts,
oriented north-south on the eastern flank of the complex, and a
general eastward progression into south-central/southeastern MS over
the next 1-2 hours. In addition, brief instances of marginally
severe hail will be possible within any of the more robust updrafts.
..Barnes.. 06/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 33039059 32149090 31169135 31079175 30849310 30589338
29999303 29869260 29989164 30309029 31098976 31708971
32448956 33068991 33129021 33039059
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1165.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 042113Z - 042315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm initiation is expected within the next
1-2 hours across portions of central Oklahoma. Large hail up to
1.50-2.50" in diameter, wind gusts exceeding 65-75 mph, and perhaps
a tornado or two are expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery trends indicate air
mass modification is continuing across north central and central OK
late this afternoon. A developing cumulus field is apparent near a
mesolow just north of I-40 and Clinton, OK. A surface trough and
dryline extend southward from this low into portions of southwestern
OK. An axis of extreme instability has developed within
southeasterly surface winds on the western edge of a residual cold
pool from earlier this morning. As destabilization continues, and
cooler mid-level temps accompany a mid-level trough slowly
progressing eastward over the northern half of OK early this
evening, rapid thunderstorm development is expected near the surface
low and convergence zones.
Although very modest mid to upper flow should limit persistent,
discrete storm organization, a few transient discrete supercells
will remain possible via veering and increasing flow within the
lowest 4 km of the troposphere. In addition, very large CAPE and
steep lapse rates (~8.5 C/km) within the hail growth zone could
support large hail with any of the discrete cells. Furthermore,
localized enhanced 0-1 km SRH is expected near and south of I-40
where surface 10-15 kt winds will likely remained backed increasing
the potential for a tornado or two before storms begin to build
upscale later this evening. Severe, damaging winds will become more
likely by this time. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed
soon.
..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35209946 34439904 34199857 34059772 34469702 34749656
35309646 36019726 36959731 37039800 36959886 35739964
35209946
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1164.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0392 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0392.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
455 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Oklahoma
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 455 PM until Midnight
CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph likely
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter likely
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly intensify late this
afternoon across west central Oklahoma and track east-southeastward
across the watch area. Supercell storms capable of very large hail
and damaging winds are the main concern. An isolated tornado or two
is also possible with the strongest cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest
of Enid OK to 60 miles south southeast of Chandler OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...WW 390...WW 391...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.
...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0392.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW LCH TO 35 ESE POE TO 35 NNW LFT TO 40 S HEZ TO 10 E HEZ TO 20 E HEZ TO 60 NNE HEZ. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 391 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-033-037-045-047-053-055-063-077-091-097-099-105- 113-117-121-125-042240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN TANGIPAHOA VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC005-023-029-031-035-037-049-061-065-067-073-075-077-085-089- 091-101-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-042240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN HINDS JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0391.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 391 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Southern Mississippi * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A squall line will continue to move east-southeast across southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi through the afternoon and into the evening into a very moist and unstable airmass. The more intense portions of the squall line will be capable of strong to severe gusts (55-65 mph) and potential wind damage. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northwest of Lake Charles LA to 60 miles east northeast of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...WW 390... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0391.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 390 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 390 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC013-015-017-027-029-041-053-061-079-085-095-105-111-113-115- 117-127-131-143-149-155-157-159-161-169-173-197-201-042240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN BUTLER CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON ELLSWORTH GEARY HARVEY JACKSON KINGMAN LINCOLN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO REPUBLIC RICE RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0390.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Northeast Kansas
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...A broken band of thunderstorms will probably continue to
pose a risk for large hail and severe gusts across parts of central
Kansas through the afternoon. As this activity moves east, a severe
threat will possibly move into northeast portions of Kansas.
Additional isolated thunderstorms over south-central Kansas may
develop later this afternoon into the evening and yield a threat for
large hail and severe gusts.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north of
Manhattan KS to 10 miles southwest of Wichita KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 389...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
25025.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0390.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW RWF TO 25 W STC TO 15 NW INL. ..THORNTON..06/04/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 389 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC001-009-017-035-059-061-065-085-093-095-115-137-141-143-171- 042240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AITKIN BENTON CARLTON CROW WING ISANTI ITASCA KANABEC MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS PINE ST. LOUIS SHERBURNE SIBLEY WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0389.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 389 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Northern Minnesota * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of developing thunderstorms will continue to intensify this afternoon. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of strong to severe gusts (55-65 mph) and large hail. This activity will spread from west to east across the Watch area through the late afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of International Falls MN to 30 miles east of Redwood Falls MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0389.html
date: 2024-06-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper-level ridge will settle over the western CONUS as northwesterly flow aloft becomes established across the eastern CONUS through the remainder of the week into this weekend. Thereafter, medium range guidance depicts a gradual breakdown of the upper-level ridge into early next week, with perhaps a mid-level trough developing over the southern Plains at the end of the period (Day 8/Tuesday). The evolution of the aforementioned upper-air pattern will support multiple rounds of potential meaningful rainfall at several locales east of the Rockies, dampening fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread in the process. However, prolonged warm and dry conditions are expected from portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin into the Great Basin. Medium range guidance agreement on stronger surface winds overlapping the expected lower RH is not overly strong, so no Critical probabilities have been delineated this outlook. However, the prolonged dry conditions, along with the lack of appreciable rainfall accumulations, should support the continued curing of fuels over portions of the Interior West. ..Squitieri.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-06-03, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW CHK TO 15 SSE CQB. ..KERR..06/03/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 384 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC017-027-109-125-133-031640- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CANADIAN CLEVELAND OKLAHOMA POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0384.html
date: 2024-06-03, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
500 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
South central Kansas
Northern and central Oklahoma
* Effective this Monday morning from 500 AM until NOON CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A well-developed MCS with embedded bowing segments will
continue east-southeastward through the morning from southwest
Kansas into south central Kansas and northern/central Oklahoma.
Damaging winds of 65-80 mph will be the main threat, while the
stronger embedded storms could produce isolated large hail of 1-1.5
inches in diameter.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south of
Medicine Lodge KS to 30 miles southeast of Ponca City OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 383...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
31035.
...Thompson