(date: 2024-06-16 13:04:23)
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 16 19:58:11 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, will continue across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...20Z Update... ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well-defined, compact MCV continues to move northeastward along the central/northern IA/IL border. Several strong to severe gusts were measured along the outflow associated with thunderstorm generated by this vorticity max over the past hour. Ample low-level moisture and buoyancy exists downstream across northern IL and far southern WI, which will likely support the development of additional storms along the outflow. As a result, the potential for strong to severe gusts is expected to extend into the area this afternoon, and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #424 was recently issued to address this threat. ...Northern/Central MN into northern WI/western Upper MI... A cold front continues to push eastward across western MN this afternoon. Downstream destabilization has been mitigated by abundant cloud cover thus far, but continued low-level moisture advection is still expected to help remove the remaining convective inhibition over the next few hours. As such, development along the front as it continues eastward still appears possible this afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks, but a tornado or two is possible if more discrete, cellular activity is realized. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over northeast CO and another low over west-central MN. Boundary between these two lows has recently started pushing back northward/northeastward as a warm front, particularly from southwest into south-central NE. Increasing cumulus across eastern CO continues to suggest that some surface-based development may occur later this afternoon, but the higher coverage is still expected north of the warm front tonight across northern NE and southern SD amid warm-air advection supported by a strengthening low-level jet. Large hail remains the primary severe risk with this elevated development, but isolated damaging gusts are possible as well, particularly if storms occur in close proximity to the warm front. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are still possible along the lee trough extending from the northeast CO low through the southern High Plains. Moderate instability and a deeply mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for strong to severe downbursts. Numerous thunderstorms are also expected to continue across the central Gulf Coast as tropical moisture continues to advect northward into the region ahead of a tropical wave. Weak shear should keep any severe potential very isolated, but a few strong water-loaded downbursts are possible. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND FAR SOUTHWEST COLORADO... The Elevated risk area in central California has been expanded southward to cover most of the San Joaquin Valley along with adjacent areas of the western Transverse Ranges and the southern Sierra Nevada. Fuels in the area have rapidly dried. Additionally, the ongoing Post Fire has been displaying rapid growth in the presence of strong winds (gusts of 40-50 mph with higher gusts in mountain gaps) despite somewhat marginal RH for the area (15-25% minimums). All of this highlights the potential for further fire activity in the region. Otherwise, the Critical area has been expanded in southern Utah and northern Arizona with better confidence in Critical fire weather conditions overlapping areas of dry fuels. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A secondary shortwave will rotate through the western US trough on Monday, bringing continued strong southwesterly flow across much of the desert southwest into the southern High Plains. Across northeastern Arizona, southeastern Utah, and portions of western New Mexico, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 20 mph. Fuels in this region are critically dry, supporting maintaining a Critical delineation across these regions on Monday. Broader Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across much of Arizona into southern/central Utah, eastern Nevada, and into western New Mexico and southern Colorado. Elevated fire weather concerns are also expected as strong northwesterly flow at 10-15 mph on the backside of the trough overlaps relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent (locally around 10 percent) within the Sacramento Valley and San Joaquin Valley in northern/central California. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support Elevated fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0424 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0424.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern Illinois Far Northwest Indiana Southern Wisconsin Lake Michigan * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster of thunderstorms should continue to increase in size and intensity this afternoon as it spreads east-northeastward across northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Severe/damaging winds around 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but isolated hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and a brief tornado also appear possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Rockford IL to 50 miles north of Valparaiso IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0424.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern early Monday morning is forecast to feature expansive ridging centered over the Carolinas that covers much of the eastern CONUS and a cyclone over the Pacific Northwest with associated troughing over the much of the western CONUS. Southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the northern and central Plains between these two features, with some strengthening of this flow anticipated as the western CONUS cyclone progresses eastward across the northern Rockies and northern High Plains, and the ridging over the eastern CONUS remains in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the mid MO Valley into the Upper Midwest, to the north of a warm front expected to extend from a surface low over the southwest NE/northwest KS vicinity northeastward to another low near the WI/MI border. These showers and thunderstorms are expected to gradually shift northeastward throughout the day, remaining mostly north of the warm front. There is some chance that this activity restrengthens during the late afternoon/early evening over east-central MN and central/northern WI, where the warm front is expected to make gradual northward progress during the day. Ample low-level moisture and strong buoyancy south of the warm front suggests surface-based supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. However, the overall evolution of this convective cluster still remains a bit uncertain, with some guidance keeping it well north of the warm front. This uncertainty precludes higher probabilities in this outlook. Farther west, late afternoon thunderstorm development appears possible along the lee trough arcing from southeast MT south into far eastern CO/western KS. Highest probabilities for surface-based, late afternoon/early evening storms appears to be across the central High Plains. Any storms that do form could produce hail initially, before quickly becoming more outflow dominant. There is some potential storms develop close enough to one another for upscale growth, with the resulting convective line progressing east-northeastward across southern NE. Thunderstorm development also appears probable across southeast MT amid moisture upslope flow and strengthening large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough. These storms will likely be elevated, with hail as the primary hazard, but a few strong gusts could still reach the surface. Isolated storms are possible farther south across the southern High Plains, but warmer temperatures aloft and displacement south of the better large-scale ascent should keep coverage isolated. High-based character to any storms that do develop could promote damaging gusts. The low-level jet is expected to strengthen during the evening, likely increasing to near 60 kt from the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Associated warm-air advection will likely result in thunderstorm development north of the warm front across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Enough vertical shear and elevated buoyancy is in place for severe storms, with large hail as the primary hazards. This activity is currently expected to stay north of the warm front, but this front is forecast to move northward through much of MN by early Tuesday. As a result, these is some chance a storms may trend towards becoming surface-based early Tuesday morning if they develop far enough south. ..Mosier.. 06/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Jun 2024 17:40:11 GMT
date: 2024-06-16, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161739
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Offshore
Central America:
Satellite data indicate that a small area of low
pressure located
just offshore and to the south of the
Guatemala/Mexico border has
become a little better defined. Some
additional slight development
is possible before the system moves
inland this evening.
Regardless of development, several days of
heavy rainfall are
expected across portions of southern Mexico
and Central America.
These rains are likely to cause
life-threatening flooding and flash
flooding.
* Formation
chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation chance through
7 days…low…30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-06-16, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
959
ACPN50 PHFO 161738
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Jun 16 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kodama
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-06-16, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 16 Jun 2024 17:40:11 GMT
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z CORRECTED FOR HEADLINE ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH...NORTHERN ARIZONA...AND FAR SOUTHEAST NEVADA... An Elevated risk area has been added for portions of the southern Sierra Nevada and western Transverse Ranges in southern California. RH is somewhat marginal for the area, with a minimum of 15-25% expected. However, strong winds (40-50 mph gusts with higher gusts in mountain gaps), rapid drying of fuels, poor overnight RH recovery, and observed rapid growth of the Post fire indicate the threat for additional fire activity in the area. Otherwise, see the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 06/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening western trough will bring an increase in southwesterly flow across much of the desert Southwest this afternoon. Fuels in this region have seen significant drying after several days of warm and dry conditions. Guidance indicates fuels in this region are critically dry, with recent ERCs data indicating 90th percentile for dryness across much of northern and central Arizona. This is further supported by active recent fire activity in this region. Relative humidity reductions to 5-10 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across central/northern Arizona, southern Utah, and far southeastern Nevada where a Critical delineation was maintained with this outlook. Outside of this region, a more broad area of Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across much of central/southern Utah into southern Arizona, where there is less confidence is sustained Critical wind speeds. Elevated conditions may also extend into portions of western Nevada in the lee of the Sierras. In this region, afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 10-15 mph (locally higher) amid modestly receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms appear possible across parts of the upper Mississippi Valley late this afternoon, with additional storms likely tonight across the north-central Plains to upper Mississippi Valley. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary risks. A small bowing complex, with mainly a severe/damaging wind threat, may also develop across parts of northern Illinois and vicinity this afternoon. ...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest/Upper Mississippi Valley... A strong upper trough/low will continue advancing east-northeastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces today. While the primary surface low is expected to remain in central Canada, a weak secondary low should develop generally eastward across MN through this evening in tandem with a cold front. Warm mid-level temperatures associated with a cap should tend to inhibit robust convective development for at least a few more hours into the early afternoon. But, most guidance now does show thunderstorm initiation occurring along the front in northern MN by 20-22Z. There are still concerns/uncertainty with how many intense thunderstorms will be able to form given fairly prevalent cloudiness that should temper daytime heating to some extent. Still, strong deep-layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a gradually destabilizing low-level airmass should support a threat for supercells and large hail. Some guidance suggests a fairly quick progression to a MCS, which seems reasonable given the linear forcing of the cold front. If this occurs, then a severe/damaging wind threat may persist through the evening into parts of northern WI and the U.P. of MI. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support low-level updraft rotation and a tornado or two across this region. A separate area of intense thunderstorm development is possible late this afternoon and early evening along the trailing portion of the cold front in NE/northwest KS and vicinity. If convection can initiate along this boundary, strong instability and modest deep-layer shear would support a threat for mainly multicells posing a risk for severe winds given the well mixed boundary layer forecast. Some hail could also occur with marginal supercell structures. The Slight Risk has been expanded southward across the central Plains to account for this scenario. Otherwise, scattered to numerous elevated thunderstorms are still expected to develop this evening and overnight generally north of the front from eastern WY into NE/SD and southern MN. A strengthening low-level jet in this time frame across these regions and ample deep-layer shear/MUCAPE will easily support supercells and a hail threat with initial development. But, convective mode may quickly become messy, with one or more bows/clusters possible as thunderstorms move eastward across the upper MS Valley overnight. Even though this activity should tend to remain elevated, an isolated severe/damaging wind threat may persist given the strong MUCAPE forecast. ...Northern Illinois/Southern Wisconsin... A well defined MCV remains evident on visible satellite and radar imagery late this morning over northeast MO and southern IA. This feature should continue to track northeastward this afternoon and evening in the modest southwesterly mid-level flow regime across the mid MS Valley/Midwest. Ample daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should support around 1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon across northern IL and vicinity. Ascent associated with the MCV and its associated mid-level vorticity maximum will likely encourage the development of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms by 20-22Z. Modest but sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization is indicated in various RAP forecast soundings across this region. Scattered severe/damaging winds, along with isolated hail, could occur with a small bowing complex that may develop and move east-northeastward across the Chicago metro area late this afternoon and early evening. Enough low-level shear is also forecast to support a low chance for a tornado or two. Given recent guidance and observational trends, a small Slight Risk has been added across northern IL/southern WI to account for this scenario. ...Southern High Plains... Isolated/widely spaced thunderstorms should form once again this afternoon along the length of a surface lee trough/dryline extending southward across the southern High Plains. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, moderate instability and a well-mixed boundary layer should support an isolated threat for severe downdraft winds. Occasional hail may also occur with the more robust cores before convection weakens after sunset. ..Gleason/Bentley.. 06/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1278
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0658 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
Areas affected...Northwest MO into western/central IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 152358Z - 160130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a
tornado or two will spread eastward this evening. Watch issuance is
likely.
DISCUSSION...A storm cluster is gradually increasing in size across
northeast KS into southeast NE, as the northern portion of a smaller
cluster that developed earlier over central KS begins to merge with
ongoing storms across southeast NE. Moderate downstream buoyancy and
marginally sufficient deep-layer shear will continue to support
organized convection through the evening, and the ongoing storm
cluster is expected to move into parts of northwest MO and
southwest/central IA with time.
With a linear mode already established, damaging winds may be the
most likely hazard as storms progress east-northeastward this
evening. However, rather strong low-level shear/SRH (as noted on
regional VWPs) will also support potential for a tornado or two.
Downstream watch issuance is likely between 7-8 PM CDT if trends
continue to support a severe threat this evening into northwest MO
and southwest/central IA.
..Dean/Smith.. 06/15/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...
LAT...LON 40059512 41299505 41989494 42189481 42199412 42099318
41239308 39819337 39519448 39559484 40059512
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1278.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0421 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0421.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 421
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
725 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central Iowa
Far Northeastern Kansas
Northwest Missouri
* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 725 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A squall line will move northeastward into the Watch area
this evening. Severe gusts (60-75 mph) are possible with the more
intense portions of the squall line as it likely progresses west to
east across much of the Watch area. A tornado is possible,
especially with any longer-lived mesovortex circulation embedded
within the line. A large hail risk may accompany more cellular
storms later this evening into the early overnight.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northeast
of Fort Dodge IA to 40 miles west of Chillicothe MO. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW
419...WW 420...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
23035.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0421.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 417 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...UNR...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 417 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC019-031-033-041-055-063-075-081-093-103-105-117-137-160040- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTTE CORSON CUSTER DEWEY HAAKON HARDING JONES LAWRENCE MEADE PENNINGTON PERKINS STANLEY ZIEBACH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0417.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
225 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue developing over the Black
Hills this afternoon. Large hail around 1-2 inches in diameter along
with severe/damaging winds of 60-75 mph will be possible as this
convection spreads eastward across parts of western and central
South Dakota through this evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from Lemmon SD to 35 miles
west southwest of Philip SD. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0417.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 418 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276 ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...EAX...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 418 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-071-085-093-119-129-133-141-143-149-155-167-193-160040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE FREMONT HARRISON IDA LYON MILLS MONONA O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH POTTAWATTAMIE SIOUX WOODBURY KSC013-117-131-157-201-160040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN MARSHALL NEMAHA REPUBLIC WASHINGTON MNC105-133-160040- MN
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0418.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 418
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
350 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Western Iowa
Northeast Kansas
Far Southwest Minnesota
Extreme Northwest Missouri
Eastern Nebraska
Southeast South Dakota
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and pose a threat
for a few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds this afternoon
and evening as they spread east-northeastward.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 55 miles east northeast of Yankton SD
to 45 miles south of Beatrice NE. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean
storm motion vector 25030.
...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0418.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 419 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277 ..DEAN..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 419 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-015-017-027-035-041-045-061-073-077-079-085-087-095-111- 113-115-127-139-143-149-155-161-169-173-177-191-197-160040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BUTLER CHASE CLAY COWLEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS GEARY GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY JACKSON JEFFERSON KINGMAN LYON MCPHERSON MARION MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RENO RILEY SALINE SEDGWICK SHAWNEE SUMNER WABAUNSEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0419.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 419
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
435 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Kansas
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until
1000 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80
mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to
develop this afternoon into the evening. The stronger thunderstorms
will mainly be capable of severe gusts (60-80 mph). Isolated large
hail may also accompany the more intense thunderstorm cores as this
activity moves east into a more unstable airmass over eastern parts
of Kansas towards the early evening.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of
Manhattan KS to 40 miles south of Wichita KS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
21030.
...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0419.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 NE BIL TO 65 NNW GGW. ..THORNTON..06/15/24 ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 420 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC017-019-021-025-033-055-079-083-085-087-091-103-105-109- 160040- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUSTER DANIELS DAWSON FALLON GARFIELD MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT ROSEBUD SHERIDAN TREASURE VALLEY WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0420.html
date: 2024-06-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 420
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM MDT Sat Jun 15 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Central and Eastern Montana
* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
900 PM MDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85
mph likely
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...An intensifying broken band of thunderstorms is forecast
to grow upscale into a squall line this afternoon and into the
evening across the Watch area. Severe gusts (60-85 mph) will be the
primary hazard with the band of storms. Large hail may accompany
any more discrete storm on the south flank of the evolving
thunderstorm activity during the evening, as well as perhaps a brief
risk for a tornado.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast
of Glasgow MT to 35 miles south southwest of Miles City MT. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 417...WW 418...WW 419...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26040.
...Smith