(date: 2024-06-23 12:42:00)
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1385
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024
Areas affected...Portions of eastern PA...southeast NY...northwest
NJ...CT...and southern MA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 231923Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for a few strong to severe
storms this afternoon. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two
appear to be the main concerns. Convective and environmental trends
are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area.
DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating within cloud breaks from eastern
PA northeastward across southern New England is supporting steep
low-level lapse rates amid lower 70s boundary-layer dewpoints. While
large-scale ascent is generally weak across the area, convection
approaching from the west and potentially new development along
mesoscale/differential heating boundaries could become strong to
severe, given 40 kt of deep-layer shear per regional VWP. Ample
low/midlevel flow and the steepened low-level lapse rates will favor
a damaging-wind risk, and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature
could support a brief tornado or two with any sustained supercell
structures. Overall, confidence in the development of persistent
strong/severe updrafts is low owing to the weak forcing for ascent,
though convective and environmental trends are being monitored for a
possible watch this afternoon.
..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 40567764 41927651 42667570 42767522 42707460 42197261
42117118 41827107 41617114 41417205 41337260 41267332
40707473 40077557 39857619 39887700 40157759 40567764
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1385.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024
Areas affected...eastern New York...Vermont...and western New
Hampshire.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 448...
Valid 231837Z - 232000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms forming across eastern New York into north-central
Vermont have the greatest severe weather potential over the next 1
to 2 hours.
DISCUSSION...Storms have developed from eastern New York to
north-central Vermont. These storms have developed within a locally
more favorable environment featuring southerly surface winds and
temperatures in the mid 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. In
close proximity to the eastward/northeastward advancing warm front
and in terrain favored locations where more backed winds can remain,
a greater tornado threat may exist through the afternoon.
..Bentley.. 06/23/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...
LAT...LON 42557422 43777374 44557306 44707245 44757180 43747171
42517196 42197322 42177383 42557422
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1384.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1383
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024
Areas affected...Portions of the Ohio River Valley into southern New
York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 231742Z - 231945Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storm risk will gradually increase through the
afternoon, with damaging winds being the primary concern. A watch
will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented cold front
draped across the OH River Valley, a corridor of upper 60s to lower
70s dewpoints and pockets of heating will contribute to moderate
surface-based instability -- despite poor midlevel lapse rates
sampled by 12Z observed soundings. As modest midlevel height falls
overspread the region, surface-based thunderstorms should gradually
increase in coverage along/ahead of the cold front.
Storms should slowly increase in intensity as they track eastward
and intercept the destabilizing warm/moist sector. Given ample
deep-layer westerly flow/shear (around 35-kt effective shear)
roughly perpendicular to the front, a mix of loosely organized
clusters and transient supercells are expected. Steepening low-level
lapse rates and the enhanced low/midlevel flow will favor locally
damaging gusts as the primary concern, especially with any localized
upscale growth. However, marginally severe hail and a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained semi-discrete
supercells. A watch (potentially two separate watches) will likely
be issued for parts of the area in the next few hours.
..Weinman/Hart.. 06/23/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...
ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 40268200 41078095 41647995 42107886 42557771 42607687
42437624 42137602 41737607 40937729 40347822 39857898
39158017 38068234 37938362 38138434 38578444 39018438
39378380 39738286 40268200
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1383.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent trends in guidance. Ensemble solutions continue to suggest low probability for critical fire weather conditions, but reasonably high potential for elevated conditions within the highlighted regions. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough in the Northwest will move into the northern Rockies and Plains through the day on Monday. A surface front will have moved through the Northwest and stalled in the northern Great Basin. Surface winds from the lee of the northern Sierra into the Snake River Plain will be modestly enhanced ahead of the front. Furthermore, lingering stronger mid-level winds will remain across southern Idaho. These features will promote dry and breezy conditions during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% will be possible. Winds of 15-20 mph can be expected, though speeds approaching 25 mph may occur in the Snake River Plain. Elevated fire weather is expected in these areas for a few hours during the afternoon. Locally critical is again possible in the Snake Plain, but fuels will continue to mitigate greater risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 23 Jun 2024 17:35:38 GMT
date: 2024-06-23, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ACPN50 PHFO 231735
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Jun 23 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster JVC
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-06-23, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 23 Jun 2024 17:35:38 GMT
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Upper Midwest, mainly from late afternoon Monday into Monday night. A low-probability scenario of a severe MCS producing destructive wind gusts is apparent, centered on central parts of Minnesota into Wisconsin. ...Upper Midwest... Confidence in tomorrow's severe evolution is low. A wide range in potential outcomes from a sporadic primarily elevated large hail threat to a derecho scenario are plausible. Primary change with this outlook is to add a significant severe wind area for the conditional potential of destructive wind gusts from an intense MCS. A shortwave trough should amplify somewhat over the southern Prairie Provinces, mainly during the latter portion of the period. This will induce weak mid-level height falls by Monday evening/night across northern portions of the Upper Midwest. Primary surface cyclone will similarly track east from southeast SK to far northwest ON. A north/south-oriented cold front attendant to this cyclone should push east across the northern Great Plains, with the trailing portion slowing and eventually stalling near the SD/NE border area. A very stout EML characterized by 700-mb temperatures of 14-16 C will inhibit surface-based warm sector development through much of the day, with remnant elevated convection from late D1 over ND potentially persisting on an isolated basis along the periphery of the EML, mainly over northern MN. Large to extreme buoyancy will develop, centered on eastern SD into western MN, with MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg probable. Isolated late-afternoon to early-evening storm development will be possible near the cold front over eastern ND into west-central/northwest MN. Guidance differs greatly on whether this will occur or not given the stout capping to the southeast. A more probable scenario is for elevated convection to develop during the evening into the overnight as a low-level jet intensifies from the Mid-MO Valley towards Lake Superior. Guidance also differs on the evolution of the surface warm front into Monday evening/night with the 12Z NAM holding farther south and more pronounced with the baroclinic zone across central MN. Most other guidance advances the warm front deeper into northern MN. Given these spatial concerns along with the relatively weak forcing for ascent near/just after peak heating amid pronounced capping over the open warm sector, confidence is low in the most likely scenario of convective evolution. Isolated, very large hail will be possible given plentiful elevated MUCAPE and strengthening effective bulk shear. The 12Z HRW-ARW depicts a more ominous scenario with surface-based development over the Upper Red River Valley growing upscale into an intense, bowing MCS through central portions of MN/WI. This includes a signal for extreme rear-inflow jet development to around 95 kts at the mature stage over west-central WI. Other guidance suggests a later MCS may develop out of the elevated convection in north parts of MN/WI, and still other guidance suggests little, if any MCS development will occur. The decision has been made to defer on a categorical upgrade and await potentially more consistent guidance in later outlook cycles. ...Black Hills vicinity into parts of NE and western IA... The southern portion of the weak cold front should slow and stall near the SD/NE border area by early evening Monday. Strong heating in the vicinity of the boundary will support isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm development. With generally weak mid-level flow across the region, storms may quickly become outflow dominant, but steep tropospheric lapse rates will support at least isolated severe gusts. The strongest updrafts may also be capable of producing some hail. ...Coastal Carolinas... A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal Carolinas vicinity, with scattered thunderstorm development expected during the afternoon. Moderate to locally strong prefrontal buoyancy (with MLCAPE of near/above 2000 J/kg) and effective shear generally around 25-30 kt will support potential for a few stronger multicells and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, with an attendant threat of locally damaging winds and hail. ..Grams.. 06/23/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-06-23, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231710
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 23 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0448 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0448.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 448 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Massachusetts Western Maine New Hampshire Northeast New York Vermont * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 100 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across eastern New York and track eastward across the watch area through the day. Supercells capable of damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes are expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Saranac Lake NY to 25 miles south southeast of Augusta ME. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0448.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z The previous forecast generally remains on track with only minor adjustments made to reflect recent fire reports, morning surface observations, and trends in latest high-res guidance. A dry frontal passage is underway across the Pacific Northwest as mid-level winds increase over the central Cascades (based on the evolution of high-level cirrus over the region). Surface pressure falls in the lee of the Cascades/northern Sierra Nevada should become more apparent in the coming hours with an attendant increase in surface winds. Latest guidance suggests the onset of elevated fire weather conditions will be around 18 UTC along/east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades with a slightly later onset for the Snake River Plain. Localized critical conditions also remain possible through the Columbia Gorge and along the NV/OR border; however, higher RH with northward extent and displacement from the stronger mid-level flow with southern extent continue to limit confidence in the coverage/duration of critical conditions. ..Moore.. 06/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move through parts of the Northwest today, favorably timed with peak heating. Surface low pressure will deepen in the lee of the northern and Canadian Rockies. Surface winds will increase across the region and into the northern Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Winds of 15-20 mph (higher downwind of the Cascade Gaps) are expected by the afternoon. RH may only lower to around 20% in many places due to at least some push of marine air across the Cascades. Given the relatively dry fuels and the expected winds, elevated fire weather is possible. ...OR/NV/CA... Temperatures will be warmer and RH lower farther south. RH could fall to near 10-15% over a broad area. Winds away from the mid-level jet will be slightly weaker, but 15-20 mph is still possible, especially near terrain features. With dry fuels in these areas, fire weather concerns will be elevated. ...Snake River Plain... The southern periphery of the mid-level jet will sag into southern Idaho. This, combined with the strengthening surface pressure gradient, will promote 15-25 mph winds within the valley. RH of 15-20% appears probable. Duration of potentially critical conditions will be minimal and fuels are not yet critically dry. That said, elevated to locally critical fire weather is expected during the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-06-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1113 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE...MASSACHUSETTS...AND WESTERN MAINE.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and a few tornadoes are likely across parts of the Northeast and New England, with additional severe storms expected across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic region, as well as the Northern High Plains. ...New England... Visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds across central/eastern NY and parts of southern/western New England, where dewpoints are in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This is resulting in rapid destabilization of the air mass, with a corridor of ~2000 J/kg and little inhibition. This should lead to scattered thunderstorm development early this afternoon over central/eastern NY, tracking rapidly eastward into VT/NH and northern MA. Forecast soundings show substantial vertical shear in this region, as storms develop beneath the mid-level jet axis. A remnant surface boundary currently extends from northeast VT into northeast MA. As storms interact with this boundary, locally enhanced low-level shear may result in a more focused risk for a few tornadoes. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and some hail are the main threats. ...Upper OH Valley... An axis of warm/humid conditions is present today from KY northeastward into western PA, where temperatures will warm through the 80s with dewpoints in the lower 70s. Model guidance suggests at least widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form. Relatively steep low level lapse rates, significant water-loaded downdrafts, and favorably strong low/mid level wind fields will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through the afternoon and early evening. ...MT/ND... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a supercell storm or two to form over southern Manitoba and track near/across the international border, affecting parts of northeast MT and northwest ND tonight - mainly after dark. Sufficient CAPE/shear parameters would support a risk of large hail in these storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 06/23/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html