(date: 2024-06-30 11:36:55)
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE AOO TO 15 NNW AVP TO 10 N ALB. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-301940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC003-301940- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE NEW CASTLE MAC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-023-025-027-301940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0489.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1492
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Areas affected...northern NJ into western Long Island/NYC Metro
vicinity
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...
Valid 301826Z - 302000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
continues.
SUMMARY...An intense bowing segment will move across northern New
Jersey into western Long Island and the New York City metro vicinity
over the next 1-2 hours. Damaging wind gusts are expected with these
storms.
DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has rapidly intensified and
developed into a bowing segment near the northern NJ/PA state line
this afternoon. This activity will spread east/southeast over the
next 1-2 hours into the axis of strong instability oriented over the
northern Mid-Atlantic region. These storms have already produced
gusts to near 50 kt and areas of wind damage. This activity is
likely to continue producing severe/damaging wind gusts as storms
spread across northern NJ and the New York City metro vicinity.
..Leitman.. 06/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...
LAT...LON 41297509 41277469 41127395 41047352 40937324 40827318
40507322 40357399 40477485 40667536 40857547 41077546
41297509
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1492.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...eastern Tennessee...southern
West Virginia...far western Virginia...and western North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301816Z - 302015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Marginal threat for strong to severe gusts will remain
possible with thunderstorm activity through the afternoon/evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase in coverage
across portions of eastern Kentucky into western Virginia this
afternoon. The air mass in this region has warmed and become more
unstable through the morning, with around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE
in recent surface objective analysis. This is also apparent in radar
and satellite trends for in echo tops and cloud top cooling with
ongoing thunderstorm activity. Upper-level flow remains modest
across the region, waning further with south and eastward extent
into far eastern Tennessee/Carolinas. As such, deep layer shear for
organization remains weak, though around 30-35 kts of effective
shear is analyzed across eastern Kentucky. As such, instances of
severe wind should remain fairly isolated and localized. A watch is
unlikely to be needed but trends will continue to be monitored.
..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...
LAT...LON 37318629 37688591 37848554 37768414 37878235 37668154
36718144 35558187 35398221 35208335 35138488 37318629
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1491.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1490
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024
Areas affected...southern NY into southern New England
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489...
Valid 301759Z - 301930Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 489
continues.
SUMMARY...A line of intense storms will shift east across southern
New England and Southern New York/portions of Long Island the next
couple of hours. Swaths of wind damage will accompany this activity.
DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing segment over CT will continue
to shift east at around 35-40 kt the next couple of hours. This
activity has a long history of producing wind damage, and this trend
is expected to continue as the bow moves across CT into RI and
southern MA through 4pm EDT.
An area of convection to the southwest of the bow continues to
become better organized from southern NY into western CT. This
activity should also continue generally eastward over the next
couple of hours and may impact portions of Long Island. Damaging
gusts may also accompany this activity.
..Leitman.. 06/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...
LAT...LON 42217266 42247085 41887055 41387073 41027155 40907210
40857255 40837310 40897387 41087449 41367460 41637430
41767337 42217266
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1490.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 489
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Connecticut
Northern Delaware
Massachusetts
New Jersey
Southern New York
Central and Eastern Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1110 AM until
700 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...A mix of thunderstorm clusters and supercells should pose
a threat for numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds as they
move eastward this afternoon and evening. Peak wind gusts should
generally range around 60-70 mph, with isolated gusts perhaps
reaching up to 75 mph. Occasional hail around 1-1.5 inches in
diameter may also occur with any sustained supercell.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest
of Worcester MA to 30 miles west southwest of Philadelphia PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0489.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 30 Jun 2024 18:24:48 GMT
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 490 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LEITMAN..06/30/24 ATTN...WFO...GYX...CAR...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 490 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029- 031-301840- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN AROOSTOOK CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN HANCOCK KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD PENOBSCOT PISCATAQUIS SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO WASHINGTON YORK NHC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-301840- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CARROLL CHESHIRE COOS GRAFTON HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN VTC005-009-017-027-301840-
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0490.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 490 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Maine New Hampshire Eastern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon while moving quickly eastward. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-70 mph should be the main threat, but isolated hail around 1-1.5 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell. A brief tornado also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Caribou ME to 20 miles southwest of Portsmouth NH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 489... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0490.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ACPN50 PHFO 301737
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Jun 30 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kino
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-06-30, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across the northern/central Plains centered over Nebraska and South Dakota. Areas of damaging winds and sporadic hail will be possible. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will move into the northern and central Plains on Monday, with a gradual weakening of the upper high over the southern Plains. The strongest cooling aloft will occur over the northern Plains, but gradual height falls will also develop over the central Plains. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the Great Lakes, with a strengthening pressure gradient over the Plains as low pressure develops over western NE/KS. A cold front will push into the western Dakotas during the afternoon, with a warm front lifting north across the mid MO Valley where a narrow plume of higher dewpoints will exist. ...Central and northern Plains... Early day elevated thunderstorms are likely over eastern KS and NE within the warm advection regime, and this should generally weaken as it lifts northeastward. Behind this activity, a plume of 70s F dewpoints will spread northwestward into parts of central NE, while strong heating and mixing develop across CO/western KS/western NE. Lift will be maximized near the surface low, with clusters of storms likely by late afternoon. Cellular activity may contain hail initially before growing upscale into an MCS with damaging winds increasingly possible as storms move toward the MO Valley. A cell or two could produce a tornado near the warm front/hot plume interface prior to storms growing upscale, as low-level shear along the warm front will be favorable. To the north and west, ascent with the upper trough will be strongest from western NE into SD, with late afternoon storms forming near the eastern WY border. Lengthy hodographs and steeper midlevel lapse rates will favor hail, with damaging wind as well developing eastward. Significant theta-e advection around 850 mb will support both lift and destabilization with the late storms into southwest MN and western IA. ..Jewell.. 06/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 301726
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Offshore of
Southern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
early this week a
few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Some
gradual development is possible, and a
tropical depression could
form around midweek while the system
moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation
chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance
through 7 days…medium…40 percent.
$$
Forecaster
Roberts
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NV AND WESTERN UT... ...17z Update... The ISODRYT area was adjusted south and east for the latest hi-res guidance. Isolated storms should develop late this afternoon with little to no wetting rainfall over far northeast CA, southeast OR and northern NV. A very isolated storm will remain possible over the southern Cascades, though coverage is too limited for higher thunder probabilities. Weak CAPE should support intermittent cloud to ground lightning and the potential for ignitions through this evening. Otherwise, minimal changes were made to the current outlook. Critically dry and windy conditions are expected this afternoon over the eastern Great Basin. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 06/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will remain in place over the central CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior west today. A surface cyclone will become established across the Great Basin, with dry and breezy conditions expected ahead of an approaching cold front during the afternoon. Widespread 20+ mph sustained southwesterly surface winds will coincide with 5-15 percent RH for much of the Great Basin into the central Rockies. Critical highlights have been maintained where these surface conditions will overlap with fuels that are most favorable for supporting wildfire-spread potential. Meanwhile, thunderstorms are expected to form immediately ahead of the cold front across portions of the Pacific Northwest. These storms are expected to be high-based since the boundary layer is expected to mix up to at least 600 mb. With fuels drying across the region, lightning strikes away from precipitation cores may support ignitions, warranting the maintenance of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-06-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts are likely across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon and evening. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should also occur from southern Montana into western North Dakota. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas... A mid-level trough over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada will continue moving eastward through the period. An associated cold front will likewise advance east-southeastward across New England and much of the Mid-Atlantic through this evening. Based on area 12Z soundings and recent surface observations, a very moist airmass is in place ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 70s. Filtered daytime heating with broken cloud cover will support weak to moderate instability through late this afternoon, with most guidance continuing to suggest a narrow corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE will be in place along/near the I-95 corridor from southern New England to the eastern Mid-Atlantic. Mid-level flow will increase through the day in tandem with the upper trough, which will foster strong deep-layer shear and organized convection. Expectations are for thunderstorms to continue increasing in coverage and intensity this afternoon, both along/ahead of the cold front and a pre-frontal surface trough. Multiple rounds of intense convection appear possible. Given a rather favorable thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space, swaths of severe/damaging winds generally 60-70 mph will likely occur as a mix of bowing line segments/clusters and a few supercells sweep eastward through the afternoon/evening. No changes have been made to the Enhanced Risk across parts of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic, where the greatest concentration of damaging winds is still anticipated. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado may also occur with any sustained supercell, although poor mid-level lapse rates and modest/veered low-level flow should hinder both of these threats, respectively. Deep-layer shear will be weaker with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas. Convective mode should also tend to be mainly multicellular across these regions. Even so, steepened low-level lapse rates and ample instability should support a threat for scattered damaging winds as thunderstorms develop and spread eastward to the Atlantic Coast this afternoon/evening. ...Northern/Central High Plains... A mid-level shortwave trough evident over the Northwest this morning will progress eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through tonight. A surface lee cyclone is forecast to deepen and consolidate over northern WY/southeast MT by this evening, as large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough overspreads the northern High Plains. Even though low-level moisture is expected to remain rather limited across this area, steep lapse rates and daytime heating will contribute to at least weak instability developing by late afternoon. Moderate to strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization. Cellular convection that initially develops over the higher terrain of southwest MT and vicinity should quickly grow upscale into a small bowing cluster as it moves east-northeastward across central/eastern MT this evening. Large hail may occur initially, but a transition to mainly a severe/damaging wind threat appears likely as this mode transition occurs. Isolated significant severe wind gusts (75-80 mph) appear possible given the very steep/favorable low/mid-level lapse rates expected. This wind threat may continue into parts of western ND and vicinity tonight before convection eventually weakens. Farther south, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop along/east of the higher terrain from WY into CO. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across this area show favorable shear for organized convection, including the potential for a mix of multicells and perhaps a couple of supercells. The southern fringe of the stronger mid-level flow and the northwest edge of the monsoonal moisture may overlap enough in western CO to support an isolated threat for severe wind gusts. ...Arizona... Low/mid-level moisture should gradually increase through the period on the western periphery of a mid/upper-level high centered over the southern Plains. Diurnal heating in the wake of overnight convection should occur across the higher terrain of eastern/southeast AZ through this afternoon, which will aid in the development of weak to moderate instability. Expectations are for thunderstorms to initially form over the higher terrain, and then slowly westward late this afternoon and evening in response to around 15-20 kt of east-southeasterly mid-level flow. A very well mixed boundary layer, with steep lapse rates through much of the troposphere, should support a threat for isolated strong to severe wind gusts with this high-based convection. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 06/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html