(date: 2024-07-14 13:26:37)
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 142015Z - 142145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this
afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway
across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of
morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile,
the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is
currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode
across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the
MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the
region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and
potential for some storm organization.
Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two,
with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt
southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick
clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to
develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this
evening, with a continued severe-wind threat.
Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening
along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area
is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient
deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this
area as well, if storms can mature.
While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch
issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears
imminent across the region.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 41389383 41709465 42059481 42449490 42889500 43119456
43259293 43209113 43169047 43068900 42938781 41838741
41238742 40888855 40838996 40879116 40969178 41019259
41389383
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1615.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Areas affected...Southern IN into western OH
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532...
Valid 141906Z - 142030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated damaging wind is expected
to continue through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS continues to move
east-southeastward across parts of southern IN into western OH this
afternoon. Recent measured gusts have generally been in the 30-45 kt
range, though some wind damage was reported earlier across northern
IN. Generally weak low/midlevel flow may continue to limit
organization potential through the afternoon. However, the
downstream thermodynamic environment remains favorable for
damaging-wind potential, with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and
steepening low-level lapse rates, and some threat for at least
isolated damaging wind is expected to continue through late
afternoon.
..Dean.. 07/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39548660 39838515 40368389 40818402 41058404 41148380
41118336 40938290 40638271 40258265 39728271 39488285
39258323 39248480 39228608 39548660
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1614.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z No changes are need to the previous D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Isolated to widely scattered dry thunderstorms are expected again on Monday as a weak mid-level perturbation (currently off the CA coast) continues to translate to the north/northeast on the northwestern periphery of a de-amplifying upper ridge over the Four Corners. The diminishing ridge and weak nature of the offshore low will result in muted surface pressure gradients and generally benign winds away from convective outflows. A plume of 0.5 to 0.75 PWAT values is already in place across the Great Basin and central Rockies, and thunderstorms over the preceding days are not expected to appreciably moisten the lowest few kilometers or provide much wetting rainfall. This should maintain receptive fuels and favorable thermodynamic profiles for dry thunderstorms across a large swath of the Great Basin. Thunderstorm coverage may be higher across the central and northern Rockies, but higher PWAT values, lower LCLs, and higher MUCAPE values suggest the potential for wet thunderstorms should increase with eastward extent. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley this afternoon through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to this outlook were to adjust severe probabilities in the northern Plains to account for both the latest guidance consensus, and reflect recent trends in observations and re-analysis. Visible satellite and surface observations indicate a northwest-to-southeast oriented baroclinic boundary draped over extreme northeast MT/northwestern ND, down to central and eastern SD, extending to the MN border. Though MLCINH remains over the warm sector, and additional airmass modification is needed for appreciable airmass recovery after earlier storms, several hours of surface heating remain. Furthermore, this boundary may serve as a focal point for deep-moist convection to initiate and anchor on later this evening. Latest guidance consensus suggests that supercell structures with mainly a hail threat will materialize closer to the U.S./Canada by around 00Z (perhaps before). Thereafter, upscale growth into an MCS is possible along the baroclinic boundary. Should this occur, steep mid-level lapse rates, along with adequate vertical wind shear may promote a corridor of severe gusts, and a 75+ mph gust or two is possible, hence the addition of a hatched area within the Northern Plains Category 2/Slight Risk. The Slight Risk in the Midwest was also expanded a bit westward in IA to account for potential westward convective initiation. This convection may also form into an MCS and traverse the same areas impacted by an earlier MCS, hence why changes were not made farther east despite some convective overturning noted. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the west of the CONUS. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 14 Jul 2024 20:01:08 GMT
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE IND TO 25 N LUK TO 25 ESE DAY TO 30 WNW MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC027-033-041-045-047-049-057-073-083-089-097-101-117-129-141- 159-165-142140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON CRAWFORD DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HOCKING KNOX LICKING MADISON MARION MORROW PICKAWAY ROSS UNION WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0532.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Indiana Central Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northern Indiana will track southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Indianapolis IN to 30 miles east northeast of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0532.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely from the Upper Midwest into the Mid Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes region tomorrow (Monday). A focused corridor of damaging winds is possible. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible across the central Plains as well as south-central/southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A complex severe weather scenario is possible across portions of the Midwest tomorrow (Monday). Upper ridging will prevail across the western CONUS as broad cyclonic flow remains in place, centered over the Upper MS Valley. Multiple mid-level impulses will pivot around the cyclonic flow from the Midwest into the Northeast, with a surface lee trough and associated cold front poised to sweep southeastward into the Midwest and OH Valley regions. Multiple areas/rounds of thunderstorm development are expected from the Midwest to the Northeast, with preceding storms exhibiting potential influence on the evolution of subsequent convective complexes. Nonetheless, the latest high-resolution guidance consensus, general synoptic pattern, and regional climatology, all suggest that at least one focused round of organized severe thunderstorms should occur across the Midwest at some point from the late morning to late afternoon hours, perhaps accompanied by a focused corridor of strong to severe wind gusts. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will dominate the Intermountain west, with monsoonal mid-level moisture pivoting around the upper ridge, fostering multiple areas of high-based strong to isolated severe thunderstorms from the Desert Southwest to the central High Plains. ...Midwest into the OH Valley... Multiple convective scenarios may unfold across portions of the Midwest tomorrow, including the possibility of a focused corridor or of severe gusts produced by a bow-echo MCS. By late morning/early afternoon, a pronounced mid-level impulse will quickly traverse the region, overspreading a generally west-to-east oriented surface baroclinic zone. Along this boundary, upper 70s F surface dewpoints will be in place, that in tandem with surface heating, will boost MLCAPE to at least 3500-4500 J/kg. Given strong mid-level westerly flow accompanying the impulse, appreciable low-level shear and modest deep-layer shear is expected, characterized by enlarged and curved low-level hodographs, but short hodographs aloft. This environment climatologically favors the development of a progressive bow-echo capable of producing a focused corridor of severe gusts (perhaps exceeding 75 mph in spots). Furthermore, some HREF members also depict possible bow echo development. However, there are some uncertainties regarding how the bow echo could form, with some members showing a bow echo approaching from MN/IA from Day 1 convection, or from new convective development over central IA. Since multiple rounds of preceding convection may also influence the position of the baroclinic zone and associated gradient of strong to extreme buoyancy, there is some uncertainty as to exactly where a bow echo would materialize and track. A Category 3/Enhanced risk has been introduced in the general region where a bow echo may form, and these highlights may need some adjustments during the Day 1 Outlook to account for baroclinic zone placement, or impacts from preceding convection. 5 percent tornado probabilities have also been added where a bow echo would most likely reach mature stage, where line-end and leading-line/system-scale mesovortices may foster leading-line QLCS tornado potential. However, even in the event that a bow echo does not materialize, a surface cold front will approach the Midwest tomorrow, contributing to linear convective initiation amid strong/extreme buoyancy, where severe gusts will still be of concern. ...Portions of the Northeast... The first in a series of mid-level impulses traversing the cyclonic flow aloft will approach the northern Appalachians by late morning/early afternoon, contributing to increasing thunderstorm coverage during the day. Surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F in several areas, along with modest mid-level lapse rates (perhaps approaching 7 C/km in spots), will result in widespread 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Stronger flow aloft will likely remain west into the OH Valley though, so vertical shear should be modest at best (i.e. bulk effective shear values around 25 kts). Pulse cellular and occasional multicell complexes are possible, accompanied by mainly a damaging gust threat. Storms should gradually weaken around or after sunset. ...Portions of the Central High Plains... Upslope low-level flow by late afternoon/early evening, in tandem with peak afternoon heating, will encourage at least scattered thunderstorm development along the lee of the Rocky Mountains. 30-40 kts of westerly 500 mb flow pivoting around the north side an anticyclone will assist in thunderstorms quickly moving into the central High Plains. Here, thunderstorms will be preceded by a well mixed boundary layer extending up to 700 mb. Surface to 500 mb lapse rates should be in the 8.5-9.5 C/km range, which favors deep-layer convective mixing and associated potential for severe gusts. A Category 2/Slight Risk has been added to portions of the central High Plains where thunderstorm clustering is expected to be greatest (based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus), and where cold-pool mergers are most likely to occur. ...Portions of southern into central Arizona... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Mogollon Rim by afternoon peak heating in central AZ. Easterly mid-level flow pivoting around the south side of an anticyclone may assist the storms in moving off of the higher terrain, amid a well-mixed boundary layer. Surface temperatures approaching 100 F ahead of the storms, beneath the monsoonal mid-level moisture, will support MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg in spots. Modest elongation of the hodographs may result in effective bulk shear values approaching 30 kts, which may support sustained multicellular clusters by late afternoon into early evening, accompanied by an isolated severe gust threat. ..Squitieri.. 07/14/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 141721
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
800 AM HST Sun Jul 14 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Wroe
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-07-14, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 14 Jul 2024 20:01:08 GMT
date: 2024-07-14, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141718
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Central and
Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located several hundred
miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development of this
system, if any, should be slow to
occur while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph across the central and western
portion of the basin through
mid- to late-week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0
percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-07-14, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z No changes are need to the previous D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widely scattered dry thunderstorms will continue to pose a fire weather risk across much of the West for today amid continued warm/dry conditions with widespread receptive fuels. Thunderstorm activity has been fairly widespread across the Great Basin and parts of the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies over the past 24 hours. GOES IR/fire temperature imagery reveals multiple hot spots that have emerged during this period, possibly as a result of lightning strikes. MRMS rainfall estimates suggests that wetting rainfall was largely confined to the central Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley with little accumulation further north into the Great Basin. A similar scenario is anticipated for today across a broad swath of the West. 00 UTC soundings continued to sample adequate mid-level moisture and sufficiently steep lapse rates to support weak convection, and GOES PWAT imagery suggests 0.5-0.9 inch PWAT values have spread east from the Great Basin into the central Rockies. While some low-level cooling/moistening from yesterday's convection is noted in surface temperature and RH trends, conditions in the lowest few kilometers should remain sufficiently dry to limit rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered with the exception of parts of the Sierra Nevada and lower CO River Valley where higher PWATS will favor a mix of wet/dry storms. Given the antecedent dry fuels and ongoing fires, dry lightning and strong outflow winds will continue to pose a fire weather concern. ...Columbia Basin... A lee trough east of the Cascades is forecast to deepen this afternoon, which will result in strengthening downslope/gap winds into the Columbia Basin and through the Columbia Gorge. Ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably high probability for 15-20 mph winds with RH falling into the single digits to low teens. Elevated conditions are expected, and a few locations may see a couple hours of critical conditions with winds closer to 20 mph. Recent fire activity in the region indicates that fuels are receptive and should support the fire weather threat. ...Eastern Oregon into southern Idaho... Recent model solutions have shifted the stronger mid-level flow northward away from the northern Great Basin. This trend appears to be supported by upper-air observations and analyses over the past 6-12 hours. Consequently, the potential for mixing down stronger flow to the surface appears to be reduced compared to previous forecasts. This trend is reflected in recent ensemble guidance with lower probability for sustained elevated conditions. The previous Elevated risk area has been removed given this trend, but areas of transient elevated wind/RH conditions will remain possible. ...Southern Montana to eastern Wyoming... Patchy elevated fire weather conditions are likely this afternoon from south-central MT into eastern WY. A deepening surface low along the northern High Plains should support 15-20 mph downslope winds with RH values falling into the teens to low 20s. While the synoptic pattern favors a fire weather concern, deterministic solutions show considerable spread in the strengthen of winds and coverage/duration of elevated conditions - possibly due to the potential for convection by mid-afternoon. Likewise, only a modest signal is noted in ensemble guidance. However, given active wildfires in this region over the past 24 hours (mostly across southern MT), trends will be monitored for the need for highlights in future forecast updates. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... West-northwesterly flow aloft is in place today across the northern Plains and Midwest, with several small-scale features noted in satellite imagery embedded in the flow. This will result in multiple MCSs from MT into the upper OH valley during this period. ...IN/OH this afternoon... A linear MCS is currently ongoing over portions of northwest IN and northeast IL. Strong heating ahead of the system across much of IN/OH, combined with surface dewpoints near 70F will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE, likely aiding intensification of storms. Given 20-25 knots of mid-level flow and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates, a few strong to severe storms are possible through the afternoon. Please refer to MCD #1612 for further details. ...Eastern IA/Southern WI/Northern IL/Northern IN... Strong heating is occurring in wake of aforementioned MCS across parts of eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where ample low-level moisture remains. A well-defined remnant MCV from the overnight severe MCS over SD is currently over northern IA, and will track into the destabilizing air mass. A consensus of morning CAM solutions suggest that thunderstorms will develop ahead of the MCV and track toward northern IL/IN this evening. Damaging winds and some hail would be the main threats. ...Northeast MT/Dakotas/Western MN... Water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough digging southeastward across southern AB. Large scale lift ahead of this system will lead to scattered thunderstorm development by early evening across portions of northeast MT and western ND. Model solutions remain diverse in the details of how this convective scenario unfolds. However, it appears likely that one or more clusters of strong/severe storms will track across ND and into northeast SD/western MN during the night. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with these storms. ...Mid Atlantic... Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected today from parts of eastern VA northeastward into eastern PA and NJ. Winds through the low/mid troposphere are rather weak and lapse rates are poor. Nevertheless, ample low-level moisture and rather high PWAT values may result in gusty winds near the strongest storms. ...AZ... Clear skies early today combined with dewpoints in the mid 60s will yield a hot and moderately unstable air mass this afternoon with MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain of western NM/eastern AZ and along the rim later today, with sufficient easterly mid-level flow to aid propagation off the mountains. Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany these storms. ..Hart/Leitman.. 07/14/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html