(date: 2024-07-19 07:54:33)
date: 2024-07-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Jul 19 13:53:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-07-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jul 19 13:53:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-07-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... The most favorable corridor for damaging thunderstorm gusts (some potentially exceeding 70 mph) will be late this afternoon and evening from parts of southwestern/south-central Nebraska across western Kansas and extreme eastern Colorado. ...Synopsis... A large anticyclone in mid/upper levels -- initially centered over north-central/northeastern AZ -- is forecast to retrograde northwestward over more of the Great Basin today. This will result in northwesterly flow over the northern Great Plains, and substantially northerly mid/upper flow over most of the rest of the Plains States, in conjunction with the persistent eastern CONUS longwave trough. Within that regime, a shortwave trough now located over eastern MT is expected to move southeastward to southern SD and northern NE by 00Z. Overnight, this feature may phase with another, weaker trough to its east, as well as take on convectively generated vorticity, and move over eastern NE/IA and vicinity. At the surface, a weak, slow-moving frontal zone (cold or warm on various mesoscale segments) was analyzed at 11Z from the Hampton Roads area across northern parts of GA/AL/MS/LA, becoming diffuse over central/north TX. Richest maritime/tropical moisture was (and will remain) confined along and south of that boundary through the period. However, a corridor of relatively maximized moisture, with dewpoints upper 50s to low 60s F -- was analyzed from the central Dakotas to western/central NE and western KS, with some eastward shifting/erosion possible on the west side today as heating/mixing occur. A lee trough should remain over the High Plains from eastern MT to the western NE Panhandle and eastern CO, to eastern NM. A trough now over parts of central SD into northwestern NE, to a low at the intersection of the troughs near BFF, potentially will become better defined and shifting southeast amid mass response to the approaching perturbation aloft. ...Central/southern Great Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over both the Front Range/Foothills corridor of CO and southeastern WY, and near a surface trough across northern/central NE. Damaging gusts and large hail will be possible with early-stage activity over NE, with gusts the more probable hazard in the CO convection. Activity should evolve upscale in both areas, moving southeastward over CO and generally southward with some westward backbuilding over central NE to western KS. An MCS with organizing cold pool appears increasingly probable, with one or more associated swaths of severe gusts expected. The best-organized and most-intense severe-wind potential may begin sooner and farther north, and conditionally may persist farther south before overnight weakening, than depicted in the "enhanced"/ 30%-wind area. However, a preponderance of guidance -- reasonably, given the overall pattern and placement of the moisture/instability corridor -- has settled on the area from southwestern NE southward across western KS to near the OK Panhandle as a most-probable corridor for severe gusts. At least isolated significant-severe (65+ kt) gusts also may be observed. Enough vertical shear will be present to support supercell potential with any relatively discrete convection in the early stages, as strong veering with height contributes to 30-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes, despite lacking stronger midlevel winds. Activity over CO will be in weaker (but still sufficient) low-level moisture and higher-based. However, even near the moist axis over central NE and western KS, a deeply well-mixed boundary layer will support wind potential. Strong surface heating should help to boost MLCAPE to 2000-2500 J/kg over much of central/west-central NE, and 1500-2000 J/kg over western KS. Activity moving into eastern NE into central KS will encounter weaker instability and greater CINH, limiting eastward extent of the severe threat, while nocturnal cooling and related stabilization will decrease the threat southward into northwestern OK and the Panhandles. How far the severe-gust threat penetrates into that stabilizing air will depend largely on strength of cold-pool-driven forced ascent and associated downdraft production, driven by low-predictability internal dynamics of the complex. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 07/19/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-07-19, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 19 Jul 2024 11:31:57 GMT
date: 2024-07-19, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191130
TWOEP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM
PDT Fri Jul 19 2024
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140
degrees west longitude:
South of Southern Mexico:
An
area of low pressure could form by early next week a few hundred
miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Thereafter, some slow
development of this system is possible through the latter part of
next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0
percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-07-19, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
425
ACPN50 PHFO 191121
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
200 AM HST Fri Jul 19 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Bohlin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-07-19, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 19 Jul 2024 11:31:57 GMT
date: 2024-07-19, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-07-19, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... An upper ridge over the western Rockies will persist D2/Saturday as a broad Pacific trough moves onshore over the Northwest. To the east, northwesterly flow aloft will continue over the northern Rockies and Intermountain west, with seasonable monsoon moisture. Widely scattered thunderstorms appear likely through the afternoon with a risk for lightning within dry fuels. ...Northwest into the Great Basin and northern Rockies... With the approach of the West Coast trough, weak ascent will allow for isolated thunderstorm development along the higher terrain of the Sierra and Cascades by early afternoon. Initial PWAT values of 0.8 to 1 inches will favor drier storm over areas of significantly dry fuels and recent fire activity. Storm coverage may increase overnight as the upper trough continues onshore and ascent increases. While PWATs should also increase above 1 inch with onshore flow, faster storm motions will tend to limit wetting rainfall, favoring drier storms. While confidence in convective evolution toward the end of the period is lower, some guidance suggests the largest increase in storm coverage after dark may be focused west of the Cascades toward the coastal ranges of OR and northern CA. Farther east into the Great Basin and northern Rockies, confidence in dry storms is somewhat lower. Flow aloft along the eastern periphery of the ridge will be weaker with deeper monsoonal moisture in place. The combination of slower storm speeds and higher PWATs suggests storms may have greater rainfall efficiency. Still, the potential for lighting outside of the wetter cores from scattered storm coverage, and the possibility of a few drier storms, suggest some threat for lightning ignitions within mostly receptive fuels. ..Lyons.. 07/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1657
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Southeast CO...northeast NM...southwest KS...TX/OK
Panhandles
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 162049Z - 162245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some increase in the severe-wind and isolated hail threat
is possible through late afternoon into early evening.
DISCUSSION...Convection developing near the higher terrain of
south-central CO into northeast NM has gradually intensified this
afternoon, with a recent measured gust of 51 kt at Colorado Springs.
Farther east, storms are beginning to develop across parts of
southeast CO into the Raton Mesa vicinity. Low-level moisture is
generally rather modest across the region, but strong heating has
resulted in MLCAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg, with some further
increase possible into late afternoon. Modest northwesterly midlevel
flow along the periphery of an upper ridge over the southern Rockies
is supporting effective shear of 25-35 kt, which may support
occasional storm organization.
Initial discrete storms will continue to pose a threat of isolated
severe gusts and possibly some hail. With time, increasingly
prominent outflow within the initially hot and well-mixed
environment will support development of one or more loosely
organized clusters, which would move southeastward with some
increase in the severe-wind threat into parts of the
central/southern High Plains. Watch issuance is possible over parts
of the region, if a more organized severe threat appears imminent.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38670512 38800169 37820065 36470076 35000080 34950082
34860235 35000350 36140432 37070460 38670512
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1657.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1656
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Central and Eastern New York into Vermont
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546...547...
Valid 162000Z - 162130Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546, 547
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues for WW 547, with
measured wind gusts of 65+ MPH and a few tornadoes possible.
DISCUSSION...The severe weather threat continues for Central and
Eastern New York this afternoon, as an ongoing linear convective
complex moves across the highlight area. Measured wind gusts of 65+
MPH have already been observed, in addition to tornadoes. This
convective activity is expected to persist over the next few hours
as it moves eastward into Vermont.
There is a localized corridor of enhanced tornado potential in the
center of the convective line, where low-level convective
organization and rotation is concentrated in a favorable environment
of STP > 1. Multiple embedded circulations have been observed
already, and will likely persist in the storm term.
..Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 42187437 42217488 42407533 42607549 42887543 43177542
43457541 43807531 44147517 44417496 44667430 44757352
44707293 44497247 44207225 43777233 43187258 42847283
42537308 42177363 42187437
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1656.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1655
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Central NE into parts of north-central KS and
south-central SD
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 161940Z - 162145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms may develop by late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Cumulus is deepening this afternoon across parts of
south-central NE, with some building cumulus also noted into
northwest NE and extreme south-central SD. The building cumulus is
ongoing within a region of relatively rich low-level moisture, with
diurnal heating supporting MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and
weakening MLCINH. In the absence of stronger large-scale ascent,
details regarding storm coverage and timing of more robust storm
development remain uncertain. However, storm initiation is underway
across south-central NE, with at least isolated development possible
farther north, within a zone of modest low-level confluence near a
weak surface low across central NE.
Low-level flow is weak, but modest midlevel west-northwesterlies are
supporting effective shear of 30-40 kt, and it is possible that a
couple of supercells and/or stronger storm clusters could develop by
late afternoon into the early evening. Midlevel lapse rates are
generally rather weak, but some hail threat could accompany any
sustained supercells, along with a threat of localized severe gusts.
Watch issuance is possible for parts of the area later this
afternoon, if development of multiple severe storms appears
imminent.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...
GLD...
LAT...LON 43360030 42929853 41749728 40919720 40199716 39469763
39079809 39019974 38990054 39130096 39460102 40020109
40430109 42250183 43170172 43360030
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1655.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 547 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656 ..HALBERT..07/16/24 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 547 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MAC003-162140- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NYC001-019-021-031-033-035-039-041-043-057-083-089-091-093-095- 113-115-162140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY CLINTON COLUMBIA ESSEX FRANKLIN FULTON GREENE HAMILTON HERKIMER MONTGOMERY RENSSELAER ST. LAWRENCE SARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIE WARREN WASHINGTON VTC001-003-007-013-017-021-023-025-027-162140-
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0547.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 547
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western Massachusetts
Eastern New York
Central and Southern Vermont
* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
900 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over central New York will track quickly
eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of
damaging winds.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast
of Saranac Lake NY to 30 miles southwest of Pittsfield MA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 546...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0547.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO SOUTHERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains to the Northeast. Greatest severe-thunderstorm threats within that are over parts of the central Plains and upper Ohio Valley to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and western New England. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted behind ongoing convection and the mid-level shortwave in parts of New York and Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, the outlook remains mostly on track with only minor adjustments based on current observations and expected convective evolution. ..Wendt.. 07/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ ...Northeast States... A well-defined shortwave trough and embedded MCV from last night's severe MCS is tracking into western NY. Strong heating of a moist air mass ahead of this system will result in intensification of thunderstorms early this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward across NY/northern PA into New England this evening. Damaging winds (potentially widespread) will be the main concern with these storms, although hail and a tornado or two are also possible. Have expanded the SLGT risk to the MA/NH coast, given favorable westerly surface winds and morning CAM solutions suggesting that MCS may persist that far. South of the main upper feature, a hot and humid air mass is present from central PA and NJ southward. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop in this area, despite rather weak forcing. Sufficient winds aloft will promote a few organized storm clusters, capable of damaging wind gusts. ...CO/KS/OK/TX... Full sunshine will lead to very deep boundary-layer mixing and scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon. This activity will be capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. As the convection spread east-southeastward into a progressively more moist air mass, intensification and organization of storms into an MCS is expected. This system will track into southwest KS and northwest OK this evening, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Central NE... A surface cold front is sagging southward across SD/NE today. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along this front over central NE late this afternoon or early evening. Activity will track southward for a few hours, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. ...Mid MS Valley... A large and persistent area of thunderstorms has been affecting portions of MO/IL all morning, resulting in a very large cloud shield. This will significantly impact heating/destabilization later today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT region to the areas along and south of the cloud shield, where strong heating is still possible. 12z CAM solutions suggest storms will build southward from this MCS across southern MO/western KY and into parts of AR/TN later today, with some risk of damaging winds.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0548 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0548.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 548 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Central Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1000 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon in a hot and humid air mass. Sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft will promote a risk of locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west southwest of Patuxent River MD to 55 miles east northeast of Wilkesbarre PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 546...WW 547... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0548.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 546 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE IPT TO 35 W ART. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652 ..HALBERT..07/16/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC007-011-017-023-025-045-049-053-065-067-075-077-107-109- 161940- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CAYUGA CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE JEFFERSON LEWIS MADISON ONEIDA ONONDAGA OSWEGO OTSEGO TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC015-115-161940- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRADFORD SUSQUEHANNA LOZ044-045-064-065-161940-
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0546.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Carolinas into New England on Wednesday, with a corridor of greater coverage from northeast Virginia into the Hudson Valley and adjacent southern Vermont/western Massachusetts. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the central High Plains as well. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected to shift eastward, with some southward digging into the northern Mid-Atlantic states on Wednesday. In the West, an upper-level ridge is expected to amplify somewhat roughly over the Divide. A shortwave trough will slide northward through the Northwest during the period along the western flank of the upper ridge. At the surface, a cold front will be situated from the southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A surface trough will deepen near the Blue Ridge during the afternoon. ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and surface trough during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will be rather weak, strong heating will support 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, particularly east of the Blue Ridge. Enhanced mid-level winds with the approaching trough should support at least modest storm organization. Shear will be slightly greater within the northern Mid-Atlantic into parts of southern New England. Buoyancy will decrease with northward extent, however. The expectation is for a few clusters/linear segments, and perhaps a marginal supercell or two, to pose a risk of primarily damaging winds. Warm temperatures aloft should keep large hail potential low. ...High Plains... Upslope flow behind the cold front will push low-level moisture up against the terrain. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 40s F are generally expected by the afternoon, though some low 50s F are possible especially farther to the east. Modest northwesterly flow aloft on the western flank of the upper trough will support from 25 kts of effective shear near the Raton to around 35 kts in eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the modest shear and relatively dry boundary layer, storms are expected to be outflow dominant with an attendant risk for severe winds. Some large hail threat could occur within the first hour or two of storm initiation. ...ArkLaTex Vicinity... An MCV from convection within parts of the Front Range on Tuesday evening is expected to be over Oklahoma at the beginning of the period. Heating ahead of this feature appears likely to support scattered storms from parts of North Texas into the ArkLaTex. While strong wind gusts are possible, the disorganized wind profile is not expected to support and organized severe threat. ..Wendt.. 07/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z Minimal changes were made to the isolated dry thunderstorm area to reflect trends in guidance. Otherwise, the D1 Fire Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 07/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0133 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Another afternoon of dry thunderstorms is expected later today across parts of the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest. Regional 00 UTC soundings continue to show a gradual moistening trend across much of the West that has been noted over the past 48 hours. This comes amid several days of widely scattered thunderstorms and a steady influx of mid-level monsoonal moisture evident in advected PWAT satellite imagery. Consequently, thermodynamic conditions appear to favor a mixture of wet and dry thunderstorms across the eastern Great Basin, Southwest, and central Rockies this afternoon. To the west on the periphery of the better moisture (where PWATs are generally around 0.75 inch), dry thunderstorms will be more probable as lift associated with a weak upper low overspreads the West Coast/western Great Basin. Recent analyses continue to suggest that fuels are receptive to lightning starts, and gusty outflow winds may impact ongoing fires across the region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS PARTS OF: CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...OZARKS...AND LOWER MISSOURI/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Plains to the Northeast. Greatest severe-thunderstorm threats within that are over parts of the central Plains and upper Ohio Valley to parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and western New England. ...Northeast States... A well-defined shortwave trough and embedded MCV from last night's severe MCS is tracking into western NY. Strong heating of a moist air mass ahead of this system will result in intensification of thunderstorms early this afternoon, with storms tracking eastward across NY/northern PA into New England this evening. Damaging winds (potentially widespread) will be the main concern with these storms, although hail and a tornado or two are also possible. Have expanded the SLGT risk to the MA/NH coast, given favorable westerly surface winds and morning CAM solutions suggesting that MCS may persist that far. South of the main upper feature, a hot and humid air mass is present from central PA and NJ southward. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms will develop in this area, despite rather weak forcing. Sufficient winds aloft will promote a few organized storm clusters, capable of damaging wind gusts. ...CO/KS/OK/TX... Full sunshine will lead to very deep boundary-layer mixing and scattered high-based showers/thunderstorms along the Colorado Front Range this afternoon. This activity will be capable of locally gusty/damaging winds. As the convection spread east-southeastward into a progressively more moist air mass, intensification and organization of storms into an MCS is expected. This system will track into southwest KS and northwest OK this evening, with a continued risk of locally damaging wind gusts. ...Central NE... A surface cold front is sagging southward across SD/NE today. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify along this front over central NE late this afternoon or early evening. Activity will track southward for a few hours, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. ...Mid MS Valley... A large and persistent area of thunderstorms has been affecting portions of MO/IL all morning, resulting in a very large cloud shield. This will significantly impact heating/destabilization later today. Therefore, have adjusted the SLGT region to the areas along and south of the cloud shield, where strong heating is still possible. 12z CAM solutions suggest storms will build southward from this MCS across southern MO/western KY and into parts of AR/TN later today, with some risk of damaging winds. ..Hart/Halbert/Squitieri.. 07/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1650
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Western/central NY into northern PA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 161433Z - 161630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe-thunderstorm threat will increase through the
morning, with a threat of damaging winds, isolated hail, and
possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...A well-defined MCV is moving across parts of southern
Ontario this morning, with storms already increasing in coverage and
intensity in the vicinity of Lake Ontario. Diurnal
heating/destabilization downstream of the MCV will support more
widespread thunderstorm development across western NY and perhaps
northern PA later this morning. Rather substantial enhancement to
low/midlevel flow related to the MCV (which is already noted on KPBZ
and KBUF VWPs) will support organized convection, in the presence of
MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range.
While eventual clustering and potential MCS development is expected,
a couple of supercells will also be possible, both with initial
development, and also embedded in any upscale growth that occurs
later in convective evolution. Scattered damaging wind and localized
gusts of 60-70 mph will be possible by late morning into the
afternoon, along with some potential for isolated hail and a tornado
or two with any persistent supercells. Watch issuance is likely by
late morning in order to address these threats.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41717988 42307985 42927920 43627914 43737845 43777781
43937653 44007615 43997585 43897527 41647491 41457731
41447987 41717988
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1650.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1649
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0845 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into parts of MO and southwest
IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545...
Valid 161345Z - 161515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 545
continues.
SUMMARY...Some threat for damaging/severe gusts may continue through
the morning. Additional watch issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...One thunderstorm cluster with a history of producing
severe gusts is currently near Kansas City, with another potentially
severe storm cluster over north-central MO. Other less-organized
convection is ongoing from southeast MO into southwest IL. Evolution
of the ongoing convection through the morning remains uncertain,
with a pocket of diurnal heating potential in advance of the
north-central MO cluster, and some heating/destabilization also
expected south of the storms across southeast MO/southwest IL.
MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and marginally supportive deep-layer
shear could continue to support some organized severe-wind potential
through the morning, especially in advance of the north-central MO
cluster. Downstream watch issuance into parts of eastern MO is
possible, depending on short-term convective trends. Some severe
threat could also eventually evolve out of the southeast
MO/southwest IL convection.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/16/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...
LAT...LON 39729035 38748947 37948894 37168931 37249018 37779225
38269348 38779467 38949478 39329508 39629480 39789342
39729035
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1649.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and Central New York
Northern Pennsylvania
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario
* Effective this Tuesday morning and evening from 1105 AM until
600 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify rapidly across
western New York and track across the watch area. Favorably strong
winds aloft and warm/moist conditions will favor a risk of damaging
wind gusts and hail in the stronger cells.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south
southwest of Buffalo NY to 20 miles east southeast of Utica NY. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 545...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.
...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0546.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
710 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Extreme northeastern Kansas
Northwestern and north-central Missouri
* Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 710 AM until
100 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
mph possible
Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Clusters of strong-severe thunderstorms are expected to
move across the watch area through the remainder of the morning and
into midday, with severe gusts and isolated large hail as the
threats.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest
of Leavenworth KS to 55 miles southeast of Chillicothe MO. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 544...
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
27035.
...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0545.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW SZL TO 35 SW LWD. ..HALBERT..07/16/24 ATTN...WFO...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 545 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC025-033-041-053-061-089-101-107-115-117-121-159-175-177-195- 161540- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL CARROLL CHARITON COOPER DAVIESS HOWARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE LINN LIVINGSTON MACON PETTIS RANDOLPH RAY SALINE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0545.html
date: 2024-07-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
161400- STATUS REPORT ON WW 544 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW EMP TO 15 WSW TOP. WW 544 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 161400Z. ..HALBERT..07/16/24 ATTN...WFO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 544 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC045-087-177-161400- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DOUGLAS JEFFERSON SHAWNEE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0544.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1615
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Areas affected...Parts of IA...northern IL...southern WI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 142015Z - 142145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storm development is expected later this
afternoon into the evening. Eventual watch issuance is likely.
DISCUSSION...Rather strong heating/destabilization is underway
across much of IA this afternoon, while recovery in the wake of
morning convection/outflow is ongoing across northern IL. Meanwhile,
the remnant MCV from last night's severe MCS over the Dakotas is
currently moving across northern IA. As MLCINH continues to erode
across northern/eastern IA and MLCAPE increases above 3000 J/kg, the
MCV may aid in scattered thunderstorm development later this
afternoon. Midlevel flow is not particularly strong across the
region, but sufficient to support effective shear of 25-35 kt and
potential for some storm organization.
Initial discrete development could evolve into a supercell or two,
with a threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a
tornado. In conjunction with the MCV, a persistent 20-30 kt
southwesterly low-level jet could encourage relatively quick
clustering and upscale growth, with some potential for an MCS to
develop and move eastward across northern IL and southern WI this
evening, with a continued severe-wind threat.
Farther northwest, in the wake of the MCV, cumulus is deepening
along a weak surface boundary across northwest IA. While this area
is in the immediate wake of the MCV, strong buoyancy and sufficient
deep-layer shear would support severe-thunderstorm potential in this
area as well, if storms can mature.
While favored timing and area remain somewhat uncertain, watch
issuance will become increasingly likely if storm initiation appears
imminent across the region.
..Dean/Hart.. 07/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...
LAT...LON 41389383 41709465 42059481 42449490 42889500 43119456
43259293 43209113 43169047 43068900 42938781 41838741
41238742 40888855 40838996 40879116 40969178 41019259
41389383
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1615.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1614
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024
Areas affected...Southern IN into western OH
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532...
Valid 141906Z - 142030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 532
continues.
SUMMARY...A threat for at least isolated damaging wind is expected
to continue through late afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A loosely organized MCS continues to move
east-southeastward across parts of southern IN into western OH this
afternoon. Recent measured gusts have generally been in the 30-45 kt
range, though some wind damage was reported earlier across northern
IN. Generally weak low/midlevel flow may continue to limit
organization potential through the afternoon. However, the
downstream thermodynamic environment remains favorable for
damaging-wind potential, with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg and
steepening low-level lapse rates, and some threat for at least
isolated damaging wind is expected to continue through late
afternoon.
..Dean.. 07/14/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...
LAT...LON 39548660 39838515 40368389 40818402 41058404 41148380
41118336 40938290 40638271 40258265 39728271 39488285
39258323 39248480 39228608 39548660
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1614.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE IND TO 25 N LUK TO 25 ESE DAY TO 30 WNW MFD. ..LYONS..07/14/24 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...CLE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 532 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC027-033-041-045-047-049-057-073-083-089-097-101-117-129-141- 159-165-142140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLINTON CRAWFORD DELAWARE FAIRFIELD FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HOCKING KNOX LICKING MADISON MARION MORROW PICKAWAY ROSS UNION WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0532.html
date: 2024-07-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 532 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Indiana Central Ohio * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 1250 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over northern Indiana will track southeastward across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Indianapolis IN to 30 miles east northeast of Columbus OH. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Hart