(date: 2024-07-27 10:18:02)
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 09:23:12 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:38:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP022024_008adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:38:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep022024_fcst_008.zip
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:38:24 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP022024_008adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:38:17 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep022024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:38:17 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep022024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:38:10 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep022024_5day_008.zip
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:37:34 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 09:22:43 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083734.shtml?cone
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260836 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud is currently only generating isolated patches of deep convection to the south and southwest of the center. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease and are now in the 30-40 kt range. Using these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is now 285/9 kt. Bud is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally westward today. After that, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance again has nudged to the north of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is thus also nudged northward. While it is possible there could be one more convective flare-up this morning, all of the guidance indicates that Bud should continue to weaken due to moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken to a depression later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipated between 60-72 h based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/260836.shtml
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
184
FOPZ12 KNHC 260835
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/260835.shtml
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…BUD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN… As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 18.8, -118.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/260835.shtml
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260835 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/260835.shtml
date: 2024-07-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:35:05 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP02/atcf-ep022024.xml
date: 2024-07-26, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:34:10 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP022024_005adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:34:03 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep022024_5day_005.zip
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:33:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Thu, 25 Jul 2024 14:33:32 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/143332.shtml?cone
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251432 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Since the time of the special advisory issued earlier this morning, the organization of Bud on satellite imagery has not changed much. The moderate easterly shear that had been affecting the cyclone appears to have diminished slightly. This has allowed the low-level center to be located underneath the central convective area. The latest subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is 45 kt, while some of the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS objective estimates have also been around 45 kt. Given the 49-kt surface observation from Isla Clarion at 0930 UTC this morning, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory. There have not been any significant changes to the general synoptic steering pattern. A low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of Bud will steer the cyclone generally westward at a similar forward speed for the next 24 h. As the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should turn towards the west-southwest and decelerate. The guidance has shifted notably north and faster with this cycle. The new NHC track forecast is adjusted about midway between the previous NHC forecast and the latest consensus track aids. As for the intensity forecast, Bud should be traversing sea-surface temperatures of around 26.5-27C over the next day or two, which is slightly cooler than the 28C waters that Bud is over currently. The vertical wind shear should be relatively low over the next couple of days. Bud will be gradually moving into a slightly drier airmass. The latest dynamical and hurricane intensity models weaken Bud more quickly than the statistical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast splits the difference and is close to the intensity consensus. This new NHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one and keeps Bud a tropical storm a bit longer. Given that the global models show Bud becoming a remnant low rather quickly despite relatively favorable environmental conditions, the intensity forecast confidence is a bit lower than average during the first 48 h of the forecast. After that time, confidence is higher that the cyclone will be significantly weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/251432.shtml
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
647 WTPZ32 KNHC 251431 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024 ...BUD MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 115.7W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 115.7 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a slower west-southwestward motion late Friday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight or Friday, with faster weakening expected Friday night. Bud is forecast to dissipate Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/251431.shtml
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
646
FOPZ12 KNHC 251431
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 120W 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/251431.shtml
date: 2024-07-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
150 WTPZ22 KNHC 251431 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC THU JUL 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.7W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 117.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 118.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.2N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.9N 122.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 115.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/251431.shtml
date: 2024-07-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1704
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0531 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024
Areas affected...Southern Arizona
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559...
Valid 242231Z - 250000Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 559
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across WW 559, primarily for
severe wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow.
DISCUSSION...The severe thunderstorm threat continues for WW 559
across southern Arizona, where daytime heating has resulted in
surface temperatures rising into the 110s F. With surface dewpoints
in the lower-to-mid 60s F, MLCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg across
southwest portions of the watch area will continue to support
thunderstorm development in the short term. Proximity sounding
profiles show deeply mixed boundary layers with large saturation
deficits, and very-weak to weak deep layer shear, supporting the
threat for severe wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow.
The greatest short-term threat for severe wind gusts is currently
confined to southern portions of the watch, where buoyancy is
maximized and thunderstorms are ongoing. This threat will continue
as storms move southwest towards the Mexican border, but should
diminish after dark.
..Halbert/Lyons.. 07/24/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31611090 31551137 31651183 31741218 31871242 32031256
32371270 32721267 32991265 33161258 33511242 33761202
34021154 34381124 34481113 34501099 34431075 34261064
33851026 33621006 33020995 32911000 32350993 31921005
31731038 31611090
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1704.html
date: 2024-07-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 559 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and southern Arizona * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 900 PM MST. * Primary threats include... Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will form over the Rim and spread southwestward to the lower deserts through late evening. The storm environment will favor strong downdrafts capable of producing occasional damaging/severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west southwest of Phoenix AZ to 65 miles east northeast of Tucson AZ. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 03020. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0559.html
date: 2024-07-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1704 ..HALBERT..07/24/24 ATTN...WFO...PSR...TWC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AZC007-009-013-019-021-023-242340- AZ . ARIZONA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GILA GRAHAM MARICOPA PIMA PINAL SANTA CRUZ THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0559.html
date: 2024-07-24, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns will focus in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies late this week into the weekend. Thereafter, fire weather concerns will become more localized given an amplifying upper ridge in part of the western/central U.S. and a benign surface pattern where fuels remain driest. ...Wind/RH Concerns... While the main shortwave trough will exit Montana into the Canadian Prairie, some moderately strong mid-level winds will linger across Montana and Idaho. Farther south, the compact tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin. A few locations may see elevated fire weather on Friday. The highest confidence is in Northeast California into adjacent Nevada/Oregon as well as the Snake River Plain and parts of northwest Montana. On Saturday, the shortwave trough in the Great Basin will be losing amplitude, but a enhanced mid-level winds will remain in the southern Basin. Strong surface winds are possible during the afternoon. Some area fuels will have been impacted by several days of convection. However, latest ERC data suggest there are still dry enough fuels to support fire spread. When coupled with the recent lightning activity, some potential for holdover fires to increase in activity is possible with the stronger winds/low RH expected. For Sunday and beyond, the upper-level pattern will feature a building ridge centered along the Divide. Dry conditions are probable in many places within the West, but winds will generally be lighter outside of terrain/mesoscale-enhanced areas. Predictability of critical fire weather is too low for any highlights. ...Dry Thunderstorms... With the approach of the weak disturbance, a few drier thunderstorms are possible in parts of central/northern Nevada on Friday. These storms will generally occur over areas that have had fuel receptiveness decrease recently. Thunderstorm activity will shift into eastern Idaho into western Wyoming on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Fuels are drier in these areas, but moisture may be too limited and storm coverage is somewhat in question this far in advance. With some very broad troughing over the Northwest, some isolated thunderstorms could occur over some of the terrain features. Coverage is likely too low for highlights and fuels may moderate somewhat due to the cooler conditions under the influence of the upper trough. ..Wendt.. 07/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:36:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP022024_001adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:35:52 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep022024_fcst_001.zip
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:35:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP022024_001adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:35:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep022024_5day_001.zip
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 20:34:58 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 24 Jul 2024 21:22:51 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/203458.shtml?cone
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 242033 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM MST Wed Jul 24 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much better organized over the past 12 hours or so. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and a pair of recent ASCAT passes shows a well-defined cyclone with 35-kt winds. Based on the ASCAT data and the improvement in convective organization observed on GOES-18 satellite images, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Bud. Bud is currently moving to the west-northwest at 14 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Bud will cause a gradual turn to the west over the next day. On Friday, with Bud likely weakening, the cyclone should turn to the southwest and decelerate, following the low-level flow. Bud is currently in an environment that appears favorable in terms of warm SSTs and a moderately moist environment, but there appears to be some easterly shear affecting the cyclone. Therefore, no change in strength is expected during the next day or so, although some slight intensification cannot be ruled out. Beyond 36 h, the cyclone should begin traversing decreasing sea surface temperatures, and move into an environment of drier air and increasing vertical wind shear. Therefore, gradual weakening is forecast during that time. The intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope and calls for the cyclone to become a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate on Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 17.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/242033.shtml
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 242032
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024
2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLA CLARION 34 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/242032.shtml
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON FORMS… As of 2:00 PM MST Wed Jul 24 the center of Bud was located near 17.1, -112.2 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/242032.shtml
date: 2024-07-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 242031 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 2100 UTC WED JUL 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.2W AT 24/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.2W AT 24/2100Z AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 111.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 113.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.3N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/242031.shtml
date: 2024-07-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL NY INTO NORTHWESTERN PA...AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across western/central New York and vicinity, the northern Rockies, and across southern Arizona this afternoon/evening. ...20z Update... The current D1 Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. Several clusters of thunderstorms are ongoing along a cold front extending from the Great Lakes region northeastward into portions of New York. In this region, daytime heating has yielded around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE with 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. In this regime, some more organized cells have produced wind damage across portions of New York and Pennsylvania. The threat for strong to severe gusts will continue through the afternoon and evening, shifting eastward with the front. Farther west, two areas of potential continue with a Marginal Risk across the Northern Rockies and a Slight Risk across southern Arizona. Within these regions, damaging wind will be possible with thunderstorm activity this afternoon. See MCD #1701 for more information on the threat across southern Arizona. ..Thornton/Thompson.. 07/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed Jul 24 2024/ ...Western/central NY and northwest PA this afternoon/evening... A midlevel trough will progress eastward from the upper Great Lakes toward NY as an associated surface cold front likewise moves eastward into western NY and southeastward into OH/northwest PA through this evening. Surface heating is underway in a corridor ahead of the cold front from northern OH into western NY where boundary-layer dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with surface temperatures warming into the lower 80s, and a band of convection has already developed from Lake Erie to western Lake Ontario. These storms may persist into the afternoon while spreading eastward, with additional development possible along convective outflow, a pre-frontal confluence zone and/or local lake breeze boundaries. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (roughly 6.5 C/km), but the low-level moisture/warming temperatures will drive MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range. Deep-layer vertical shear/hodograph length will be on the lower margins for organized clusters/cells per local VWPs now sampling 30-40 kt midlevel flow, while steepening low-level lapse rates will support the potential for occasional wind damage with strong thunderstorm outflow in the 50-60 mph range. ...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening... Strong surface heating is underway near and south of the Rim, and late afternoon temperatures will peak near or above 110 F across the lower deserts into southern AZ. Moisture will be sufficient for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the Rim and the mountains in southeast AZ, while northeasterly midlevel flow of 15-20 kt will steer outflows southwestward toward the lower deserts. MLCAPE will increase to the 1000-1500 J/kg with deep inverted-V profiles favoring strong downdrafts and outflow winds of 60-75 mph capable of producing wind damage and substantial blowing dust. The relatively greater severe threat will be with the stronger/deeper convection driven by outflow mergers. ...Northern Rockies area this afternoon/evening... A plume of mainly midlevel moisture with PW values of 0.75-1 inch (per BOI and LKN 12z soundings) will persist around the northern periphery of a midlevel high over the Great Basin, and southeast of a midlevel trough approaching WA. High-based thunderstorms are expected in a few loosely organized clusters within this plume, where deep inverted-V profiles will support the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts 50-65 mph. ...Mid-Atlantic into NC this afternoon... Modest surface heating within small cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints of 72-74 F will contribute MLCAPE approaching 1500 J/kg to the east of the Blue Ridge, though midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. Still, the southern extent of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will support a low-end wind damage threat with the stronger storm clusters this afternoon.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html