(date: 2024-08-04 12:16:57)
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1815
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024
Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula and far southern
Georgia
Concerning...Tornado Watch 594...
Valid 041747Z - 041945Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 594 continues.
SUMMARY...Mini supercells within the outer bands of intensifying TC
Debby will remain capable of tornadoes this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...As of 1745 UTC, the latest NHC Aircraft recon fixed the
low-level center of TS Debby near 27.0 N, 84.3 W. As the TC
continues to deepen, low-level hodograph expansion has been noted at
most of the radar sites east/northeast of the center. A few
tornadoes are possible with miniature supercells embedded within the
spiral rain bands as they move ashore into moderate low-level SRH.
Stronger low-level mesocyclones within the most westward band have
moved offshore over the past few hours, but a new band developing to
the east has shown some stronger convective development recently. As
low-level shear continues to intensify, tornado potential should
increase, especially where low-level flow is more backed. Warmer
surface temperatures to the north of the main cloud shield may also
support more intense convection and a locally greater tornado or
damaging gust risk this afternoon.
..Lyons.. 08/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 26378186 26958227 27618259 28778267 29468327 30138435
30688414 30788356 30848219 30778159 30168131 29288102
28358068 27928072 27318071 26408115 26278154 26378186
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1815.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1814
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024
Areas affected...far northern New York eastward into Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 041734Z - 042000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some storms may produce localized hail, primarily at or
below severe levels, over the next several hours.
DISCUSSION...On the periphery of an upper trough over Quebec,
relatively cool midlevel temperatures extend southward into parts of
New England. Daytime heating near a surface trough and also north of
a more extensive cirrus shield is resulting in moderate
destabilization from northern NY eastward into parts of ME.
Wind profiles do not favor particularly organized storms, as winds
below 500 mb are weak. However, stronger speeds exist in the upper
levels which may aid venting somewhat.
Overall, it appears that short-lived, strong storm cores capable of
marginally severe hail will be the primary risk with these cells
over the next few hours as they travel east/southeast across the
narrow instability zone.
..Jewell.. 08/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 46146811 45056885 44496990 43337395 43437523 43887520
44297473 44957381 45057191 45567106 46167035 46696902
46486817 46146811
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1814.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 041756
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
800 AM HST Sun Aug 4 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected through the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
TS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041751
TWOEP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM
PDT Sun Aug 4 2024
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140
degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National
Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta,
on Tropical Storm Daniel, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression
Five-E, all located well offshore of the coast
of Mexico.
South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm
activity continues to show signs of
organization in association
with an area of low pressure located a
few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon
as this afternoon while the
system moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the
coast of Mexico. For more information of this
system, including
Gale Warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80
percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…high…90 percent.
&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E
are issued under
WMO header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Five-E are
issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP5.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php
$$
Forecaster
Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-08-04, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FL INTO EASTERN GA AND SOUTHERN SC...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...Synopsis... A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend across the length US/Canada border, from the Pacific Northwest through the northern Plains/Upper Midwest and Northeast. Several shortwave troughs will be embedded within these westerlies, the most prominent of which is a wave that is forecast to progress quickly from central Ontario through southern Quebec and northern ME. Another, low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to move through the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes. Expansive upper ridging is expected to remain centered over the Four Corners, extending from the southern Great Basin vicinity through the lower MS Valley. Tropical Cyclone Debby is expected to move between the eastern periphery of the Four Corners ridge and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic, progressing across northern FL and reaching the southeast GA/southern SC vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Surface pattern early Monday is expected to feature a low over the central SD/NE border vicinity, with a stationary front extending eastward from this low across central IA, northern IL, and southern Lower MI before arcing more northeastward along the St. Lawrence Valley to another low over New Brunswick. Eastern portion of this front is expected to progress southeastward across the Northeast throughout the day, while the portion of the front closer to the SD/NE surface low transitions to a warm front amid southerly low-level flow ahead of the low. A cold front will extend westward from the SD/NE surface low into eastern WY, where it intersects lee troughing extending across the northern and central High Plains. This front is expected to push southward across the central Plains as the low progresses eastward/southeastward through IA. ...Northern FL into southern GA and far southern SC... Tropical cyclone Debby is forecast to progress across northern FL throughout the day, reaching the southeast GA/southern SC vicinity by early Tuesday morning. Strong low-level flow attendant to this system will support the potential for tornadoes within deeper, more persistent updrafts. These updrafts are most likely in the areas where dewpoints exceed 74/75 deg F. This appears most likely across northern FL and southeast GA. However, a more westerly track would allow this more favorable low-level moisture to penetrate inland more of southern GA and perhaps even southern SC. 5-percent tornado probabilities were adjusted northward to account for this possibility. ...Northern OH Valley through the Northeast/New England... Thunderstorm development is anticipated Monday afternoon along the length of the cold front extending from ME into northern IN/OH. Dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s across central ME to the low 70s across IN/OH will support moderate buoyancy, with the strongest buoyancy across the OH Valley where greater low-level moisture exists. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region as well, with the stronger flow and greater vertical shear expected across New England. While there is some displacement between the strongest shear and greatest buoyancy, there is still enough overlap to support scattered strong to severe storms, including even some supercells across New England. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. ...Upper Midwest... Late afternoon/evening thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and associated warm front moving across IA. The airmass will be very unstable, supported by temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s. Even so, there is some question whether true warm sector storms will initiate, given the potential for significant mixing and warm mid-level temperatures. Storms north of the warm front could still pose a severe risk, with large hail and damaging gusts as the primary threats. A surface-based, warm sector storm would have these threat as well, but with an added potential for very large hail and potentially even a tornado or two, given the potential for a supercellular mode. After the initial cellular mode, a quick transition to a more linear/forward-propagating mode is expected. ...Northern Rockies... A low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the northern periphery of the ridge across the northern Rockies Monday afternoon. Ascent and increased mid-level moisture attendant to this wave combined with orographic ascent and deep boundary-layer mixing will help support afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Deep-layer vertical shear is strong enough to some organized, more persistent updrafts. High storm bases and steep low-level lapse rates will help support damaging gusts with the strongest storms. ..Mosier.. 08/04/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...Update... Latest observational trends in satellite data, combined with recent CAMs and other model output, suggest the most likely area for isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will be shifted southeast from the previous forecast across portions of central UT, southern WY, and western CO, with a small area of additional elevated, dry thunderstorms possible near and east/northeast of the Cascades of OR. These areas will have relatively lower PWATs and drier boundary layer conditions this afternoon. Further north across MT and the rest of WY, wetting thunderstorms are anticipated within an area of stronger mid-level ascent and deeper moisture. In addition, very few thunderstorms are now expected to develop over ID on the backside of an exiting vorticity maximum, and as a result, dry Thunderstorms have been removed from the forecast there. For additional details pertaining to the unchanged Elevated area for windy and dry conditions this afternoon across the High Plains of WY, SD, and NE please see the previous discussion below. ..Barnes.. 08/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... A midlevel disturbance moving across the Great Basin into the northern Rockies will bring isolated dry thunderstorm chances across eastern Oregon into Idaho southward and eastward into Utah and Wyoming this afternoon. In these regions, mid-level moisture will overlap dry surface conditions with faster storm motions. With little to no precipitation expected, dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Better potential for wetting rainfall into central/northern Montana precludes the need to include these areas, though fuels in these regions are also sufficiently dry. ...Windy/Dry... A surface low will deepen across eastern MT/WY this afternoon. Surface winds will increase across these regions into western Nebraska and southern South Dakota amid relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent. Some portions of the Nebraska Panhandle received wetting rainfall in the last 24 hours, though heavier totals were more sparse. Given ERCs near the 95th percentile before this light to moderate rainfall, fuels may still be receptive to fire spread with Elevated fire weather conditions expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 16:52:36 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep032024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 16:52:36 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep032024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GEORGIA. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING.... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Storm Debby may produce a few tornadoes over parts of Florida and extreme southern Georgia through early tomorrow morning as it intensifies. Scattered thunderstorms may produce damaging wind gusts across parts of Montana this evening. ...FL/South GA... Tropical Storm Debby continues to intensify off the west coast of the FL. Low-level wind fields are enlarging, resulting in strengthening shear profiles across much of peninsula. Dewpoints in the mid-upper 70s and pockets of heating, combined with deep tropical moisture, will result in scattered to widespread afternoon thunderstorms. Given the favorable wind fields, a few tornadoes are possible. ...MT/WY... Water vapor loop shows a well-defined mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward across ID. This feature and an associated mid-level speed max will cross the northern Rockies and into southern MT/northern WY this afternoon/evening. A consensus of 12z model guidance shows clusters of thunderstorms forming in this region, tracking eastward across southern MT through the evening. CAMs have a consistent signal for a more organized damaging wind threat, so have added a small SLGT to account for this scenario. ...SD/MN/IA... A strengthening low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift over eastern SD/western MN this evening/tonight. Isolated thunderstorm development is possible in this regime, perhaps not until after midnight. This region will be beneath the southern fringe of stronger west-northwest flow aloft, and in a region of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Elevated storms capable of hail and perhaps gusty winds are possible. ...Northeast States... Scattered thunderstorms are expected today across much of New England and eastern NY/PA into NJ. Surface conditions are considerably cooler than recent days, which should weaken low-level lapse rates and temper the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, a few strong storms are possible - capable of gusty wind and small hail. ..Hart/Jewell.. 08/04/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:23:20 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0594 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0594.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 594 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM EDT Sun Aug 4 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Northern Florida Southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and evening from 1055 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity within the outer bands of Tropical Storm Debby this afternoon. As wind fields strengthen, the potential will exist for a few tornadoes in the stronger cells. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeast of Valdosta GA to 20 miles southeast of Naples FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 14030. ...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0594.html
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:40:40 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP032024_017adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:40:15 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep032024_fcst_017.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:40:07 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP032024_017adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:39:53 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep032024_5day_017.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:39:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:29:09 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/143929.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:38:11 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP052024_001adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:50 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep052024_fcst_001.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:48 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP042024_005adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:41 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP052024_001adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:32 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep052024_5day_001.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:32 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep052024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:32 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep052024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:31 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep042024_fcst_005.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:23 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep042024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:23 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep042024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:20 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP042024_005adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:10 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep042024_5day_005.zip
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:37:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:41:02 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/143704.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:36:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 04 Aug 2024 15:35:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/143641.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 041435 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Carlotta's deep convection has become quite limited this morning. Subjective Dvorak and objective satellite estimates like the UW-CIMSS ADT are all decreasing, and support an initial intensity estimate of 55 kt. No changes of note were made to the NHC forecast, and further weakening should continue as Carlotta moves over SSTs that are already below 25 deg C. The SSTs will only get colder during the next couple of days as Carlotta moves along the forecast track. The tropical storm is forecast by most models to lose its remaining deep convection in about 48 h, and based on current trends this could occur even sooner. Dissipation is still expected around mid-week. The tropical storm is still moving westward to west-northwestward. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as Carlotta is steered by a deep-layer ridge centered well to its northeast. As the cyclone weakens further and becomes more vertically shallow, low-level steering will likely cause it to turn westward and slow down slightly in a couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 19.9N 124.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/041435.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 041435
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
20N 125W 50 23 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 125W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP3+shtml/041435.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 041435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 Daniel's convective structure continues to sputter along, with the coldest cloud tops organized in two regions to the northeast and southwest of the center, which appears to be mostly exposed this morning. The latest round of both subjective and objective intensity guidance has not changed much from overnight, and so the initial intensity remains 35 kt this advisory. It appears that the tropical storm is finally starting to track more north-northeastward this morning, with the estimated motion at 030/4 kt. A somewhat faster northeastward motion is expected to begin later today through Monday as Daniel's motion is influenced by the southwesterly monsoonal flow being picked up by Carlotta passing to the north. The global models still show a turn north and northwestward as Daniel gets caught in the outer periphery of Carlotta's larger circulation. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the prior advisory, close to the multi-model consensus. While the vertical wind shear that was previously affecting Daniel is starting to subside, there is quite a bit of environmental dry air to the north of the storm, which will likely keep it in check, and only a modest amount of intensification is forecasted. After 48 h, this dry air is expected to fully envelop the circulation, choking off the remaining convection, marking the storm's transition to a post-tropical remnant low. The low is finally forecast to open up into a trough by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 13.2N 130.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/041435.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
661 WTPZ33 KNHC 041435 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Carlotta Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...CARLOTTA SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 124.0W ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlotta was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 124.0 West. Carlotta is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected for the next day or two. Carlotta's forward motion is forecast to slow down gradually as it becomes a remnant low in a couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days. Carlotta is forecast to become a remnant low late Monday or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta along the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula are expected to diminish today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/041435.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
663 WTPZ23 KNHC 041435 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 124.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.3N 125.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.7N 127.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.1N 128.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.3N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 21.3N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.2N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 124.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP3+shtml/041435.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
662 WTPZ45 KNHC 041435 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 Convection associated with a low located well offshore Mexico has steadily increased in coverage and organization since yesterday. Overnight ASCAT and first-light visible imagery indicate that the cyclone also has a well-defined, if somewhat broad, circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 2.0 at 1200 UTC, which support initiating advisories on the system as a 30 kt depression. The depression is located within a very convectively active environment over the east Pacific, deep-layer wind shear is low, and SSTs are plenty warm, so strengthening is expected in the short term. The biggest source of uncertainty for this forecast is an expected interaction with a larger disturbance, currently Invest 96E, which is approaching from the east. Based on the available global and hurricane dynamical model forecasts, the most likely scenario is that 96E will be the dominant system. In that case, the new depression will only have a short window to strengthen before it is wrapped into and dissipates within the other circulation. Models historically handle interaction cases like this poorly, so confidence in the forecast is not high, despite the near universal agreement between the dynamical guidance on this upcoming evolution. The NHC forecast is very close to the consensus guidance through 24 to 36 h. After that, the model trackers appear to be getting fooled by the close proximity of 96E and TD Five-E and are following the stronger vortex instead. The NHC forecast is based heavily on a broad consensus of model fields beyond 36 h and shows dissipation occuring by 60 h. There is some chance that the depression could persist longer than forecast if the two systems remain farther apart, however there is not enough guidance with a trackable vortex to justify an explicit forecast beyond what is currently shown. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 15.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/041435.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:35:04 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP03/atcf-ep032024.xml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 041434 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052024 800 AM MST Sun Aug 04 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 112.9W ABOUT 530 MI...850 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow generally southward motion is expected to begin later today and continue into Monday. A sharp turn back toward the north is possible by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected today and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. The cyclone will then begin to interact with another larger disturbance approaching from the east, which is expected to cause this system to dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/041434.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 041434
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 130W 34 4 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/041434.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 041434 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 112.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 112.8W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.4N 113.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.5N 113.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.8N 113.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 14.1N 112.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/041434.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:34:50 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP05/atcf-ep052024.xml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Daniel Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042024 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 04 2024 ...DANIEL BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.2N 130.4W ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Daniel was located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 130.4 West. Daniel is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is forecast later today and Monday, followed by a turn toward the north and northwest on Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Small intensity fluctuations are possible during the next couple of days. Daniel is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/041434.shtml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sun, 04 Aug 2024 14:34:02 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP04/atcf-ep042024.xml
date: 2024-08-04, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041433 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM DANIEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 04 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 130.4W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 130.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 13.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 127.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.8N 126.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.8N 126.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.7N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 127.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 130.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/041433.shtml