(date: 2024-08-25 12:09:50)
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Aug 25 18:31:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Aug 25 18:31:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 18:22:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:39:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/182239.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 251758 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 800 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HONE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND BUT CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 156.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF KONA HAWAII ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Hone. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hone was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 156.6 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days, with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Hone is expected to gradually weaken the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hone can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header TCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/HFOTCDCP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall over mainly southeast and south facing slopes of the Big Island. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible over the smaller islands, mainly windward. SURF: Swells generated by Hone are affecting portions of the Hawaiian islands, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/251758.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-08-25, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
Active
Systems:
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii
is issuing
advisories on Hurricane Hone. This system is located
about 100
miles southwest of Hilo, Hawaii, or about 250 miles
south southeast
of Honolulu, Hawaii, moving west around 8 mph.
Interests in Hawaii
should closely monitor this system.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing
advisories on Hurricane Gilma, located about midway between the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and the Hawaiian
Islands. Gilma is expected to move into the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center’s area of responsibility Monday night or early
Tuesday morning.
Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
&&
Public
advisories on Hurricane Hone are issued under WMO
header WTPA31
PHFO and under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1. Forecast
advisories on
Hurricane Hone are issued under WMO header
WTPA11 PHFO and under
AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1.
Public advisories on Hurricane
Gilma are issued under WMO
header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS
header MIATCPEP2. Forecast
advisories on Hurricane Gilma are
issued under WMO header
WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP2.
$$
Forecaster Vaughan
NNNN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA...EXTREME NORTHWEST IOWA...EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND FAR WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected to evolve within a zone extending from the northern/central High Plains eastward to Wisconsin Monday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Large to very large hail, and swaths of severe, potentially damaging, gusts are expected, especially across South Dakota into Minnesota. A few severe storms producing strong gusts and hail are also expected across southern New England. ...South Dakota into MN/WI and vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will develop east/northeast from the Intermountain West to the Dakotas on Monday. This will flatten the upper ridge over the Upper Midwest and a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow (50-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread the region. By late afternoon, 700 mb flow is expected to increase to around 40-50 kt. Vertical wind profiles, and effective shear magnitudes increasing to greater than 40 kt, will support supercell thunderstorms. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northern MN southwestward into western SD during the morning. The front will develop southeast through the day and into the evening, becoming positioned from western WI/IA to the NE/KS border by Tuesday morning. Ahead of the front, a very moist airmass (upper 60s to mid 70s F dewpoints) will be in place across portions of MN/WI/IA and eastern SD, while a dryslot will be oriented over NE nosing into far southeast SD/western IA. With increasing ascent through the day, and persistent low-level warm advection, MLCIN should gradually erode. MLCAPE values across warm/moist sector are forecast as high as 3000-5000 J/kg, decreasing with southwest extent into the drier airmass. Steep midlevel lapse rates will within the strong to extremely unstable airmass will support robust updrafts, and initial supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front from SD into MN. Large to very large (isolated stones greater than 2 inches diameter) will be possible. While damaging gusts will also be possible with cellular activity, one or more bowing segments/MCSs are expected to develop into the evening hours as convection shifts northeast across eastern SD/MN and eventually WI. As this occurs, potential for severe/damaging wind swaths will increase and a few gusts greater than 65 kt/75 mph are possible. Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain, but would likely be locally increased near and east of the surface low where low-level flow will remain more southeasterly. This will enhance low-level SRH and frontal convergence and a few tornadoes are possible with either supercells or within mesovortex formation along bowing segments. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Within the drier boundary-layer across southeast MT/eastern WY southward into eastern CO/western KS/western NE, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as the main upper trough overspreads the area during the afternoon. High-based thunderstorms amid steep low-level lapse rates will pose a risk for strong/isolated severe outflow winds. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly from eastern WY into western SD/NE. ...New England and portions of the Upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic... Modestly enhanced deep-layer northwesterly flow on the back side of an upper trough will overspread the region. Pockets of 60 F dewpoints and cool temperatures aloft will support modest destabilization during the afternoon and thunderstorm bands/clusters are expected. Locally strong gusts will be possible with the activity. Isolated large hail also may be possible, especially over southern New England where forecast hodographs show more favorable vertical shear and elongated/straight hodographs. ..Leitman.. 08/25/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to shift from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains Day 2/Monday. As this occurs, enhanced deep-layer flow is forecast to overspread portions of Wyoming near the base of the aforementioned trough, which will promote dry and breezy conditions. While locally elevated fire weather conditions are probable -- mainly during the afternoon with boundary-layer mixing -- fire weather conditions appear too spotty/brief to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-08-25, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z Based on the latest observational data and high-resolution guidance, an Elevated area was added over portions of southwest/central Utah with this update. Here, breezy southwesterly surface winds (sustained 20-25 mph) will overlap 15-20 percent RH ahead of a cold front this afternoon. Despite slightly cooler temperatures and higher RH than previous days, the breezy/gusty winds amid a couple ongoing fire incidents warrant the highlights. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 08/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to gradually shift from the Northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies through tonight. Ascent associated with the trough should foster isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms this afternoon/evening across portions of Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and Nevada. While a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms is expected, fast-moving thunderstorms atop receptive fuels may promote new ignitions, especially along the periphery of any heavier thunderstorm precipitation cores. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds are possible with the strongest storms. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the nearby severe thunderstorm risk across portions of Wyoming. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES... CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe wind gusts possible. Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear. Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts. ...Central/southern Rockies... Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes. Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts. ...South-central High Plains... Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico. Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Areas affected...parts of eastern Utah...adjacent northwestern
Colorado and southwestern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251627Z - 251830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying renewed thunderstorm development is possible
across much of eastern Utah by 1-2 PM MDT. Widely scattered
stronger storms may pose a risk for severe hail and wind while
spreading northeastward and eastward through late afternoon. While
it is still not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
needed, trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a seasonably vigorous short wave trough
slowly progressing east-northeastward through the Great Basin, a
narrow band of large-scale ascent continues to gradually spread east
of the Wasatch. This is in the wake of initial low-level warm
advection driven convection now spreading spreading northeastward
through the Colorado and adjacent Wyoming Rockies, with insolation
across a relatively moist boundary layer over much of eastern Utah
contributing to increasing destabilization.
Through 18-20Z, models suggest that mixed-layer CAPE may increase to
500-1000 J/kg, coincident with further strengthening of south to
southwesterly mid/upper wind fields (including 30-70+ kt in the
700-300 mb layer). As new thunderstorm development begins to
initiate, it appears that this regime will become potentially
conducive to evolution of isolated supercells. In addition to
posing a risk for large hail, stronger storms may become capable of
producing locally severe wind gusts, particularly as they spread
across the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations
through late afternoon.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 40631059 41650798 40220842 38420926 37600986 37181085
37551144 39331088 40631059
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1987.html
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA61 PHFO 251630 TCUCP1 Hurricane Hone Tropical Cyclone Update NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 630 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HURRICANE HONE CONTINUES TO LASH THE BIG ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 600 AM HST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCUCP1+shtml/251630.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:36:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:39:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/153641.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:23:15 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_030adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:21 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_fcst_030.zip
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:08 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_030adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:02 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep072024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:02 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep072024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:46:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_5day_030.zip
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:46:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:28:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/144632.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Over the last 6 hours, Gilma's eye has continued to be present on most of the infrared and proxy vis images. However, the eye has become a bit more cloud-filled, and the convection over the southwestern eyewall is slightly less robust. Although the CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are still T-6.0/115 kt, the respective Final T numbers are lower than that. Recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 84 to 113 kt. Based on a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. Gilma is currently moving very near the 26C isotherm and is located in an environment of low vertical wind shear. The middle troposphere is fairly dry in the environment surrounding Gilma, but the cyclone has been able to prevent the dry air from entraining into the center enough to significantly disrupt the hurricane. The environmental conditions are not forecast to become more conducive for strengthening. Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase slightly by late tonight or early Monday. SSTs should decrease slightly along the path of Gilma by late Monday or Monday night. Based on these factors, only slow weakening is forecast for the next 24 h followed by more steady weakening after that. The confidence in the intensity forecast seems slightly below average in the short-term while Gilma straddles the 26C SST isotherm and remains in relatively low shear. In the 24 to 96 h time frame, Gilma should be weakening, but the rate at which it weakens is a bit uncertain. By day 4, vertical wind shear increases to moderate to strong, making it likely that Gilma should be significantly weaker in the 4- to 5-day time frame. Gilma is forecast to lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, perhaps showing a slightly slower rate of weakening in the 36-72 h period, closer to the latest intensity consensus guidance. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. A strengthening mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should steer Gilma on a westward to west-northwestward track through the forecast period. The official forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.0N 133.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.0N 147.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.6N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/251445.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
653
FOPZ12 KNHC 251444
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 135W 34 11 11(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 38(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 15(48) X(48)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/251444.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…GILMA STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE… As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -133.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/251444.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251444 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 133.5W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 133.5W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 147.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/251444.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:44:12 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP07/atcf-ep072024.xml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 251436 TCDCP1 Hurricane Hone Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hone is passing by around 40 nautical miles south of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii this morning, where it is within radar range. Combined radar, and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission earlier this morning, support raising the initial intensity of Hone to 75 knots, keeping it a Category 1 Hurricane. Despite recent subjective Dvorak estimates suggesting a slightly lower intensity, the satellite presentation has evolved markedly overnight, with cold cloud tops near -75 C reinforcing the radar and aircraft-based intensities. The initial intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion of Hone is set at 280/07. This westward trajectory is expected to persist over the coming days, influenced by a subtropical ridge to the north. However, as Hone remains near the Big Island through the early morning hours today, the mountainous terrain could influence local steering currents, potentially leading to localized and short-term deviations in the storm's motion and intensity. As we move into the early to mid portion of the week, Hone is projected to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, which is expected to weaken the storm and make it more shallow. This change in conditions will allow the low-level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west-southwest. The official forecast track remains nearly identical to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with the tightly clustered consensus guidance. Environmental conditions affecting Hone will remain steady over the next 12 to 24 h, with sea surface temperatures between 26 C and 27 C, light to moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level moisture. This supports maintaining a steady trend in intensity through the morning hours today. Although sea surface temperatures are forecast to rise to around 27 C tonight and beyond as Hone continues westward, increasing vertical wind shear will translate to a gradual weakening trend later today through the middle of the week. The intensity forecast closely follows dynamical consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 2. Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward. 3. Swells generated by Hone will continue today as this system continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 156.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.6N 157.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 160.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.0N 162.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 19.4N 166.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.7N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.6N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/251436.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 251435
PWSCP1
HURRICANE HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HILO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
18N 156W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
18N 156W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SOUTH POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
21N 156W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAILUA-KONA 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
KAHULUI 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
21N 158W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARKING SANDS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HANA 34 2 15(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
LANAI CITY 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51002 34 21 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
HONOLULU 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LIHUE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 160W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 160W 34 2 50(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
20N 160W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 160W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NIIHAU 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
21N 160W 34 2 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BUOY 51003 34 2 66(68) 19(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
BUOY 51003 50 X 21(21) 21(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
BUOY 51003 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NIHOA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
22N 164W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NECKER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 165W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 29(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) X(27)
20N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
20N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/251435.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 251434 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Hone Advisory Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HONE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 156.1W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SW OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are imminent or occurring somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Hone. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hone was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 156.1 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through the morning hours today, before a gradual weakening trend begins this afternoon onward. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hone can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header TCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/HFOTCDCP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward. SURF: Surf associated with large swells generated by Hone will continue today as Hone tracks westward. Expect dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/251434.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 251434 TCMCP1 HURRICANE HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 156.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..230NE 70SE 50SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 156.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 155.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 157.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 160.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 162.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 45SE 35SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 10SE 5SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 166.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.7N 168.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 35SE 25SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 172.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 45NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 156.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 PHFO/HFOTCPCP1...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/251434.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS TO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN DAKOTAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions of western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. ...Synopsis... A seasonally well-amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, but with some important changes due to the progression of embedded synoptic- to subsynoptic-scale features. An intermittently closed cyclone now over north-central NV will eject slowly northeastward to southeastern ID through the period, while devolving to an open-wave trough. By 12Z tomorrow, the full trough should extend from the MT Rockies southward through the remnant low's vorticity max, then southwestward to southern NV. Meanwhile, a broad anticyclone -- initially centered over northern OK/southern KS -- will move northeastward, with the 500-mb high over central MO by 12Z, and ridging north-northeastward across Lake Superior. The northward component of this shift should occur partly in response to a well-defined low/trough in the subtropical easterlies, now evident over the north-central to southwestern Gulf. This feature should move ashore on the lower/middle TX Coast around the end of the period. Northeast of the high, a strong shortwave trough now over northwestern QC will dig south-southeastward through tonight, reaching the St. Lawrence Valley and approaching northern NY by 12Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a persistent, very slowly frontolytic, quasistationary boundary from just offshore of the Carolinas to the north-central Gulf Coast, becoming a diffuse warm front over astern parts of TX/OK. Rich low-level moisture has returned northward near this boundary in OK/AR and farther north across parts of the central/northern Plains. A low was drawn north of MIB, with cold front southwestward across the northwestern corner area of SD, into north-central WY. By 00Z, the front should reach from near the MN/ND/MB border confluence across the eastern Dakotas, parts of north-central/southwestern NE and near CYS. The front should proceed overnight to a 12Z position from northeastern MN to the FSD/SUX vicinity, central NE and eastern CO. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the cold front -- predominantly after 00Z, though enough moistening/ heating may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Supercells and bowing lines/clusters will be possible, offering large hail and severe gusts. Activity should occur as the front encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and still-unstable boundary-layer airmass, with only minimal diabatic cooling, due to the presence of rich moisture near the surface, Surface dewpoints already are commonly in the 70s F in a swath of the warm sector with 11Z axis from north-central ND south-southeastward across eastern portions of SD/NE/KS and the Arklatex region. Forecast soundings indicate the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping, and steep midlevel lapse rates. With a deep troposphere still present over this area, atop the favorably unstable boundary layer, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range will be possible. This will be collocated with slowly strengthening flow aloft, such that 30-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes will be possible from late afternoon through the evening. ...Central/southern Rockies and vicinity, south-central Plains... Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with at least isolated strong-severe gust potential, should become common by this afternoon in a vast, roughly triangular area in and near the outlook, from western NM and eastern AZ to parts of southeastern MT and southern KS. Within that area, the greatest potential for severe should be on the western fringes, with supercells and bowing clusters possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to southwestern WY. In that region, the greatest diurnal destabilization will overlap the most favorable deep-layer lapse rates, and strengthening vertical shear ahead of the progressive western trough. Mid/upper-level moisture-channel imagery, available GPS PW data, and surface analysis show a persistent plume of deep-layer monsoonal moisture, maintaining some continuity from the ITCZ well south of mainland MX, across parts of west-central MX and Chihuahua, to NM, CO, WY and western NE. Enough low-level moisture (PW above 1 inch in some areas) to support organized convective potential extends farther westward over the Four Corners area, especially into northeastern AZ, eastern UT and western CO. Forecast soundings in that corridor show favorable deep shear for supercells, with effective-shear magnitudes in the 40-55-kt range, and elongated, rather straight low/middle-level hodographs favoring a large-hail threat, in addition to the broader severe-gust potential. Farther east, much of the higher terrain across the "marginal" area will reach convective temperature relatively early in the diurnal-heating cycle, with little CINH, resulting in abundant development, slowing the pace of additional destabilization. Still, isolated strong/briefly severe gusts may occur, especially where north-northeastward moving clusters of convection encounter pockets of well-mixed boundary layer suitable for intense downdrafts. Farther east onto the High Plains, more-favorable heating/mixing will occur, but with weak shear nearer to the mid/upper high. ..Edwards/Bentley.. 08/25/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html