(date: 2024-09-01 11:20:25)
date: 2024-09-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 01 Sep 2024 18:02:55 GMT
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 18:01:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 15:50:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/180136.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 011758 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 800 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 ...HONE TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 178.3W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Kure Atoll * Midway Atoll A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the broad mean center of elongating Tropical Storm Hone and an extratropical low was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 178.3 West. Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today as Hone merges with the extratropical low. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected to resume on Monday. On the forecast track, Hone, or the extratropical low associated with Hone, will be passing near or just west of Kure Atoll near the International Date Line late Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over Midway and Kure Atolls. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Wroe
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/011758.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 1 17:57:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024
Areas affected...parts of western and northern New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011754Z - 011930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of storms may produce occasional gusty wind
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Inhibition has been mostly eroded across western and
northern New York as temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to
low 80s with mid 60s dewpoints. Expect scattered thunderstorms to
develop along a cold front once it moves east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Storms may be not be that deep given the relatively shallow
thermodynamic profile shown by the RAP forecast soundings. However,
relatively strong flow through the column and a well-mixed boundary
layer may support efficient transport of gusty winds to the surface
within these storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
through the afternoon with this threat waning near sunset.
..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43357915 43497832 43517714 43907704 44207653 44667583
45167503 45587378 45557370 45137334 44107369 42977513
42497697 42337806 42427885 42657931 43357915
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2041.html
date: 2024-09-01, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-09-01, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal severe risk will exist across the USA on Monday, with thunderstorms most prevalent across parts of the Southeast and from the Great Basin into parts of the Northwest. ...Great Basin into eastern OR into ID... A compact upper low is forecast to move across northern CA and into central OR on Monday, while mid and high level winds increase ahead of it. Cooling aloft along with surface heating will result in very steep lapse rates over much of the area, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as central NV. A surface trough will develop over eastern WA/OR into western ID and northern NV, providing a focus for scattered late-day storms. Forecast soundings indicate inverted-v profiles, with minimal overall CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg. This will support gusty outflow winds with the strongest storms, however, it is unclear whether enough downdraft material will be present to produce severe gusts. In addition, mean winds in the lowest few km will remain relatively weak while the stronger winds remain at or above 500 mb. That said, an isolated gust over 50 kt cannot be ruled out, and low severe wind probabilities may be considered in later outlooks as confidence increases. ...Southeast... A large upper trough will progress across the northeastern States on Monday, with weak but cyclonic flow aloft extending into the Southeast. Minimal cooling aloft will occur, while the air mass remains moist. High pressure north of the region will result in northerly winds which will tend to shunt the 70s F dewpoints toward the coastal Carolinas, while providing minimal convergence. Daytime heating should then result in scattered thunderstorms from parts of GA across SC and toward coastal NC, but weak shear and poor lapse rates suggest little severe risk. ..Jewell.. 09/01/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 1 17:16:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-09-01, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-09-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 01 Sep 2024 18:02:55 GMT
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry thunderstorms will be the primary fire weather concern for today. Isolated dry thunderstorms were observed yesterday (Saturday) across portions of central NV on the fringe of a modest monsoonal moisture plume. This air mass is currently advecting northward into north-central NV and adjacent portions of OR/ID per latest water-vapor imagery. 00z soundings along the West Coast have already begun to sample this mid-level moisture as well as cool mid-level temperatures, which should support MUCAPE values between 100-250 J/kg this afternoon. Concurrently, an upper wave off the northern CA coast is forecast to move onshore over the next 24-48 hours. Lift ahead of this wave will overspread the moisture plume, resulting in isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms from central OR into eastern NV/far western UT. Dry boundary layer conditions (as well as fast storm motions across OR) will limit rainfall accumulation and favor dry lightning strikes. Given regional ERCs at or above the 80th percentile, dry lightning will pose a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will prevail with another day of afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Strengthening southerly mid-level winds may support areas of dry/windy conditions in the immediate lee of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, but such conditions should remain too limited to warrant highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a diffuse front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Late morning visible satellite imagery shows substantial cloud cover in the vicinity of the boundary. Nevertheless, daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass should allow at least weak/pockets of moderate instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front. Modest ascent with an upper trough over eastern Canada and adjacent Great Lakes/Northeast U.S., in combination with orographic ascent, will likely contribute to thunderstorm development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Mid-level flow should still prove sufficient to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds while moving generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability (MLCAPE on the order of 2000-2500 J/kg) is forecast this afternoon. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... The upper-level trough and associated surface cold front will move east today across Ontario/Quebec provinces and Northeast U.S., with weak surface-based instability possibly developing in advance of the front. This may result in a narrow, low-topped line of convection (possibly with little lightning) moving east and accompanied by some risk for strong/locally damaging gusts. ..Bunting/Bentley.. 09/01/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 15:49:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 15:50:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/154955.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 011500 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 The satellite presentation of Hone has become very ragged overnight, with the low-level circulation center becoming very difficult to locate with much confidence. An 1130z Oceansat-3 pass indicated that the low level center of Hone has shifted west-westward since the previous and appears to be merging with the mid-level low just east of the International Date Line. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, all came in at 2.5 (35 kt), while the objective intensity estimates were similar. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at a perhaps generous 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is quite uncertain due to the low-level of Hone being in the process of merging with the mid-level low to the west, and is set at 300/12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight along with a decrease in forward speed as Hone merges with a mid-level low to the west. Hone should begin moving northward with an increase in forward speed Monday and Monday night as it moves into a weakness in building mid-level ridges to the northwest and east of the system. A shift back toward the northwest is then expected late Tuesday through Thursday as a low and mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hone. The latest track forecast was adjusted to better align with the latest model guidance and generally follows the TVCE consensus. Hone will be in a relatively favorable environment during the next couple days, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The interaction with a mid-level low, ragged LLCC and entrainment of dry mid-level air should act to minimize the potential for intensification however. Beyond 48 hours mid-level moisture drops off considerably and the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest a loss of deep convection by 72 hours. As a result, the intensity forecast holds Hone as a 35 kt Tropical Storm during the next couple days, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours, and dissipation occurring by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows the latest intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.0N 177.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 25.4N 178.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.7N 179.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 27.1N 179.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 179.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 30.2N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 31.0N 179.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 178.0E 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/011500.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 011459 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 ...HONE TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 177.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Kure Atoll * Midway Atoll A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 177.7 West. Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected to resume on Monday. On the forecast track, Hone will be passing near or just west of Kure Atoll near the International Date Line late Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over Midway and Kure Atolls. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/011459.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 011459
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KURE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
KURE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/011459.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 011459 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 177.7W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 177.7W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 176.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.4N 178.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.7N 179.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.1N 179.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.8N 179.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.2N 179.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 179.5E...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 178.0E...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 177.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 PHFO/HFOTCPCP1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/011459.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging winds may occur this afternoon across parts of the southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. ...Southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England... Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage this afternoon along/south of a weak front that extends from the Mid-South/lower OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. Morning visible satellite imagery shows plentiful cloud cover near this boundary, and downstream across parts of NC and the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Still, filtered daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass should allow at least weak instability to develop by early to mid afternoon along and south/east of the front, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. The glancing influence/ascent of an upper trough over eastern Canada, along with weak orographic lift, will likely encourage convection development through the afternoon and early evening. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast to remain fairly modest, especially with southward extent across the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas and southern Appalachians. Still, enough flow and related shear may be present to support modest thunderstorm organization. Multiple loosely organized multicell clusters may eventually develop and consolidate by late afternoon and early evening, while posing some threat for isolated strong to damaging winds as they move generally eastward. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms should exist across parts of southern VA into NC and upstate SC where greater instability is forecast this afternoon. But, confidence in a more organized wind threat remains too low to include greater severe wind probabilities. ...Western/Northern New York into Northern New England... As the primary upper trough and related surface cold front continue eastward across Ontario/Quebec today, daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will occur over parts of western/northern NY. Although poor mid-level lapse rates will likely hinder the development of any more than weak instability across this area (MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg of less), low/mid-level winds and related shear in the cloud-bearing layer is expected to strengthen through this afternoon with the approach of the upper trough. Some high-resolution/convection-allowing model guidance shows a low-topped line of thunderstorms developing this afternoon along or just ahead of the cold front. As low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating, some of this convection could produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts given the strengthening low/mid-level flow expected. The area impacted should remain fairly small across western/northern NY (generally downstream of Lake Ontario) due to more even more limited instability farther east across central NY into northern New England. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/01/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-08-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sat Aug 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential remains quite limited across the U.S. on Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will build over much of the central CONUS as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, and a second mid-level trough traverses the Pacific Northwest on Day 3/Monday. WAA, driven by surface lee troughing across the Plains, as well as the heating of a moist boundary layer across the southeast quadrant of the U.S., will foster isolated to scattered thunderstorm development from eastern NM to the central/southern Atlantic Seaboard. At least isolated thunderstorm development is also likely across much of the Interior West as the West Coast mid-level trough approaches. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may form near a weak surface low to the lee of the Cascades late Monday afternoon into early evening. These storms should be high based as they develop atop a boundary layer that may mix up to 600-500 mb. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km amid stronger unidirectional southwesterly flow above 500 mb (hence elongated hodographs) may encourage storm organization to some degree, with gusty winds possible. A Category 1/Marginal Risk for severe gusts may be needed over the Harney Basin in eastern OR in future outlooks if greater storm coverage by afternoon peak heating becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 08/31/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sat, 31 Aug 2024 18:47:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sat, 31 Aug 2024 15:22:45 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/184706.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 311758 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 800 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 ...HONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE.... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 176.2W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Kure Atoll * Midway Atoll * Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 176.2 West. Hone is moving very slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A gentle turn towards the west northwest Sunday will transition to a more northerly track Monday and afterward as Hone's forward motion increases a bit. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, with gradual weakening expected afterward. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight into Sunday. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over Midway, Kure and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/311758.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0666.html
date: 2024-08-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Southwest Pennsylvania Northwest Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and move east across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Altoona PA to 10 miles southwest of Beckley WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Bunting
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0666.html
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
712
FOPA11 PHFO 311436
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 176.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 175W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LISIANSKI 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MIDWAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13)
KURE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23)
KURE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/311436.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 311435 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 176.0W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 176.0W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 175.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 176.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.4N 177.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.5N 178.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.2N 179.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 179.8E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.8N 179.0E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 176.7E MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 35.5N 174.9E MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 176.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 PHFO/HFOTCPCP1...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/311435.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 311434 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 The nocturnal convective bloom persists along the eastern semicircle of Hone this morning. Deep convection obscured the low level circulation center (LLCC) through most of the night, with the LLCC now emerging from the western edge of the cold cloud cover. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity values ranged from 2.0/30 kt to 2.5/35 kt between the three fix centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 32 kt and, although a few points were rain-flagged, ASCAT-C showed enough winds in the 30 to 32 kt range within the northeast quadrant to justify bumping Hone's initial intensity to 35 kt for this forecast cycle, making this system a tropical storm again. It seems that Hone's forward motion slowed significantly just as the convective bloom obscured the LLCC last evening, causing uncertainty as to what initial motion to assign. With the partial re-emergence of the LLCC from the western edge of cold cloud cover over the past hour, confidence in an initial motion of 315 degrees at 3 kt is higher than it would have been previously. Forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Global models show Hone's LLCC and an upper low less than 300 nm to its north becoming well-aligned in the next 24 hours as the upper feature drifts south, drawing the LLCC toward it. Afterward, the merged system will move slowly west northwestward. Because almost all track guidance wants to pull Hone almost due north initially, in contrast to current motion to the northwest, the forecast track is just to the left of the envelope through 24 hours, with little change made in the track forecast through then. The forecast track from 36 hours through 60 hours was adjusted noticeably to the right to keep it within the guidance envelope, mostly following HWRF, and creating a more pronounced kink in the track at 48 hours as guidance depicts the newly-aligned system transitioning from a west northwest track to an almost due north track. Beyond 72 hours, the forecast track once again closely mirrors the previous one. The environment that Hone will encounter offers far less shear and continued marginally favorable sea surface temperatures over the next 24 to 48 hours, and Hone is forecast to slowly strengthen during this time. Except for HAFS, which still calls for stronger intensification, the intensity guidance envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast lies comfortably within this envelope, close to TVCN. Hone's intensity will peak by 72 hours at 50 kt, then slowly decrease afterward as it travels across the western North Pacific. After passing south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to cross the International Dateline late Sunday night Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.5N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 176.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.4N 177.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 25.5N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 26.2N 179.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 28.0N 179.8E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 29.8N 179.0E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 32.8N 176.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 35.5N 174.9E 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/311434.shtml
date: 2024-08-30, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Fri, 30 Aug 2024 15:12:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Fri, 30 Aug 2024 15:22:48 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/151206.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-30, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 301434
PWSCP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 174.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 175W 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LISIANSKI 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KURE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/301434.shtml
date: 2024-08-30, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 301433 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hone Advisory Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION HONE BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 174.7W ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1080 MI...1735 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests on Midway, Kure, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls should monitor the progress of Hone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hone was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 174.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today through the weekend. On the forecast track, Hone will pass south of Midway, Kure, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast over the weekend and Hone is expected to become a tropical storm Saturday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Powell
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/301433.shtml
date: 2024-08-30, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 301433 TCMCP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC FRI AUG 30 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 174.7W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 174.7W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 174.4W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 175.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.7N 176.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 24.8N 177.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.8N 178.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.6N 179.7E MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 15SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 27.1N 177.8E MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 28.7N 174.2E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 31.3N 171.1E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 174.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/301433.shtml
date: 2024-08-30, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 301432 TCDCP1 Tropical Depression Hone Discussion Number 33 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Fri Aug 30 2024 Like last night, convection bloomed across the eastern flank of Hone's low level circulation center (LLCC) between 06Z and 12Z. This recent convection partially obscured the LLCC initially, but has been sheared eastward just enough to make this feature discernible in satellite imagery. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity estimates were 2.0/30 kt from PHFO and JTWC, and 1.5/25 kt from SAB. Unfortunately, the ASCAT pass missed Hone entirely. The 1110Z objective Dvorak estimate from UW/CIMSS of 32 kt remains close to the subjective estimates, and the intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory, maintaining Hone's status as a tropical depression. Hone began a slight turn to the north last evening and continues to make this turn with the 12Z cycle. The initial motion of 290 degrees at 7 kt is in line with the previous forecast track and little change was introduced to the current forecast track through 24 hours. As before, forecast track philosophy revolves around likely interaction of the LLCC with an upper low north of Midway Atoll. This upper low is forecast to dig southward over the next few days and Hone is expected to be pulled northwestward toward it. After Hone's LLCC and the upper low become aligned, the tropical cyclone is expected to resume a west-northwest motion over the western Pacific. The track guidance envelope through 72 hours remains rather tight, but has shifted to the right between 24 and 72 hours, possibly predicting a stronger interaction with the upper low.The forecast track for this cycle has been adjusted a bit to the right of the previous one from 24 to 72 hours, with little change introduced outside of this window. Combined with the current motion, this results in a forecast track which depicts a steeper climb northward in the mid term. Hone needs to maintain a shroud of organized deep convection for reintensification, and the recent nocturnal bloom was certainly a good start. If Hone manages to survive the 45 kt of westerly shear it is seeing now, there may be an opportunity for reintensification. However, in spite of a bit of a boost from last cycle, intensity models remain somewhat bearish on this possibility. Only HAFS, representing the high side of the envelope, takes Hone back to hurricane/typhoon strength. HWRF depicts Hone as a minimal tropical storm through 72 hours before granting a bit of strengthening. HCCA gradually strengthens Hone to 50 kt at 72 hours, then tries to dissipate it shortly after 120 hours. Global models generally try to do the same. In other words, intensity guidance varies widely after 48 hours as each model or ensemble copes with the uncertainty associated with Hone's interaction with the upper low north of Midway Atoll. The current intensity forecast closely follows the previous one, which lies within the wide guidance spread. Following our track and intensity forecast, Hone should cross the International Dateline as a mid-range tropical storm on Sunday, Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 21.8N 174.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 22.4N 175.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 23.7N 176.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 24.8N 177.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 25.8N 178.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 02/0000Z 26.6N 179.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 27.1N 177.8E 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 28.7N 174.2E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 31.3N 171.1E 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/301432.shtml
date: 2024-08-30, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CDT Fri Aug 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain confined to portions of the Great Basin for Saturday. Upper-level ridging currently over the western CONUS will begin to slowly shift east towards the central Rockies over the next 48-72 hours. As this occurs, a modest plume of monsoonal moisture will spread north/northwest into southeastern NV and southwest UT. Weak mid/upper-level ascent impinging on the fringe of the moisture plume should support isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. A deep, well-mixed boundary layer will promote limited rainfall with this activity over a region with generally receptive fuels (ERC values at/above the 80th percentile). Consequently, dry lightning will be a fire weather concern. Elsewhere across the West, dry conditions will persist, and increasing mid-level flow along the West Coast may support some breezy conditions in the immediate lee of the central to southern Sierra Nevada. However, confidence in widespread elevated conditions remains too limited for highlights. ..Moore.. 08/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 09:31:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 09:32:39 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/093141.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 09:23:22 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 290859 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Deep convection continues to develop to the north and northeast of low-level circulation center of Hone this evening. The center had been fully exposed for most of the afternoon and early evening hours as the cyclone continues to get hammered by 40 to 45 kt of westerly vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, JTWC, and SAB ranged from 2.0 (35 kt) to 3.0 (45 kt), while a 06z SATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS was 40 kt. These estimates in combination with the ragged appearance of Hone support lowering the initial intensity to 40 kt for this advisory. Hone continues to move west to west-northwest or 280/8 kt. This motion is expected to continue during the next 36 hours as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. After 36 hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with a developing mid- level low near the International Dateline. A turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected Friday and Friday night, followed by a more northerly motion and an increase in speed on Saturday. The cyclone is then expected to shift westerly Sunday through early next week as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The track forecast closely follows a blend of the multi-model consensus aids and is very close to the previous track forecast. This track takes Hone toward the northwest Hawaiian Islands over the weekend, where there is some potential for impacts to Kure, Midway, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. Hone will remain under the influence of strong westerly vertical wind shear of 35 to 45 knots and dry mid-level air during the next 36 hours. This should lead to slight weakening of the cyclone with convection continuing to flare to the north and northeast of the low level center. Beyond 36 hours, vertical wind shear will gradually trend lower while mid-level moisture increases. This in combination with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 to 29 C and high ocean heat content should allow for some strengthening of the cyclone if it manages to survive the hostile environment it will be in through early Friday. The intensity forecast calls for little change in strength during the next 48 hours, followed by gradual strengthening through the end of the forecast period. This generally follows the intensity consensus guidance through the forecast period. Only minor adjustments were made to the previous intensity forecast through 48 hours, with a slight upward adjustment beyond due to the increasingly favorable environment expected around Hone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 20.8N 171.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 21.0N 172.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 21.4N 173.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 21.8N 175.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 31/0600Z 22.4N 175.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 31/1800Z 23.4N 176.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 24.9N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 27.0N 179.6E 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 03/0600Z 27.5N 176.5E 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/290859.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 290858
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 171.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 175W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
25N 175W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 1(18) 1(19)
LAYSAN 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 1(11)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17)
MIDWAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
KURE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20)
KURE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/290858.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 290858 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ...HONE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY HEADING TOWARD THE DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 171.2W ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests on Midway, Kure, and Pearl and Hermes Atolls should monitor the progress of Hone. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 171.2 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through Thursday night. A turn toward the northwest is expected Friday through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/290858.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 290856 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 171.2W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 65NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 171.2W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 170.7W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.0N 172.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 65NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.4N 173.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.8N 175.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.4N 175.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 23.4N 176.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 35SE 10SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.9N 177.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 15SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 27.0N 179.6E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 27.5N 176.5E MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 171.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/290856.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA42 PHFO 290849 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 A few thunderstorms have been able to develop in association with Gilma's circulation this evening, but they have been unable to either wrap around, or move over, the center. This pulsing disorganized convection is doing little to sustain Gilma as a tropical cyclone, while also leading to lowering subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates that range from 1.5/25 kt to 2.5/35 kt. The initial intensity estimate for this advisory is maintained at 35 kt, primarily based on a 0643Z ASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of 32 kt. Gilma's forward motion remains a steady 280/12 kt. A low-level ridge north of the cyclone will continue to steer it just north of due west over the next day or so, with a turn toward the west-northwest expected Friday as the ridge weakens. Little change to the previous forecast track was made, as consensus track guidance remains well clustered. Water vapor imagery and shear analyses indicate that Gilma is moving into an area of increasing westerly vertical wind shear on the order of 20-30 kt, associated with a trough aloft approaching from the west. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that Gilma will only produce brief periods of deep convection over the next day or two, with Gilma gradually spinning down from its peak that occurred just a few days ago. Gilma will likely become a post-tropical remnant low on Thursday, continue gradually weakening as it moves close to Hawaii on Friday, then dissipate in the vicinity of Kauai early Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 19.5N 149.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 19.8N 151.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 20.4N 153.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 30/1800Z 21.2N 156.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 22.2N 158.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP2+shtml/290849.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:43:43 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated 0
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp2+shtml/084343.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA32 PHFO 290840 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 45 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 PM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ...GILMA BARELY A TROPICAL STORM ... ...EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE NEAR KAUAI OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.5N 149.5W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 560 MI...895 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 149.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued motion toward slightly north of due west will continue into Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday as the remnant low of Gilma passes near the Hawaiian Islands. Gilma is expected to dissipate near Kauai on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Gilma is expected to weaken to a remnant low late Thursday or Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, mainly to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/290840.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:39:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep082024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:39:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep082024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:39:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_fcst_015.zip
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA12 PHFO 290838
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072024
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 150W 34 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
20N 151W 34 26 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
20N 154W 34 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HILO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
21N 156W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HANA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP2+shtml/290838.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:38:43 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_015adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:38:39 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_015adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-29, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA22 PHFO 290837 TCMCP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072024 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 149.5W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 20SE 30SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 149.5W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 148.9W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.8N 151.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.4N 153.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 21.2N 156.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 22.2N 158.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 149.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP2+shtml/290837.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:37:30 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_5day_015.zip
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:37:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Thu, 29 Aug 2024 09:34:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083700.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
687 WTPZ43 KNHC 290835 TCDEP3 Remnants Of Hector Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2024 An overnight scatterometer pass showed that the low-level center of Hector has opened up into a trough. There remains a limited area of shallow convection displaced over 250 n mi from the remnants of the center. The initial intensity has been reduced to 30 kt based on the ASCAT data. The remnants of Hector should continue to move generally westward for the next couple of days. This is the final NHC advisory for Hector. For additional information on this system, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 16.9N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/290835.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 290835
PWSEP3
REMNANTS OF HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024
0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2024
AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF HECTOR WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9
NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30
KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME...
AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED...
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP3+shtml/290835.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 290834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Hector Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 29 2024 ...HECTOR DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 135.4W ABOUT 1305 MI...2100 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Hector were located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 135.4 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Bucci
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/290834.shtml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Thu, 29 Aug 2024 08:34:42 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP08/atcf-ep082024.xml
date: 2024-08-29, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 290834 TCMEP3 REMNANTS OF HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC THU AUG 29 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 135.4W AT 29/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 135.4W AT 29/0900Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 134.8W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 135.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BUCCI
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP3+shtml/290834.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 15:13:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated 0
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp2+shtml/151340.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
756 WTPA31 PHFO 281510 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 25 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ...HONE CONTINUES WESTWARD WELL NORTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 168.5W ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM NNE OF JOHNSTON ATOLL MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 168.5 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple days. A turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected this weekend. On the forecast track, Hone will pass by well north of Johnston Atoll today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Hone is forecast to become a post-tropical low on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/281510.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
047 WTPA42 PHFO 281445 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ProxyVis satellite imagery shows Gilma's exposed low-level circulation center tracking just north of due west. Limited deep convection is forming a weak curved band north and northeast of the center, where an earlier ASCAT pass detected winds near 40 kt. This data, and a blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates from PHFO, JTWC and SAB, supports lowering the initial intensity estimate to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. A low-level ridge north of Gilma will continue to steer the shallow cyclone westward to west-northwestward until it dissipates near Kauai this weekend. There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and lies close to HCCA and FSSE guidance. Gilma is expected to gradually degenerate to a remnant low as it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands Friday into Saturday. Guidance indicates the strong westerly vertical wind shear currently impacting Gilma will briefly ease later today as a passing trough aloft lifts north, slowing the recent rapid weakening trend. Another trough aloft approaching from the west will bring even stronger vertical wind shear Thursday and Friday, eventually leading to dissipation. The new intensity forecast follows trends presented by the intensity consensus IVCN and SHIPS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.8N 145.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.1N 147.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 19.6N 149.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 20.1N 152.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 20.7N 154.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0000Z 21.4N 156.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1200Z 22.3N 159.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP2+shtml/281445.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA32 PHFO 281442 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 42 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ...WEAKENING GILMA EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO HAWAII ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 145.7W ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 145.7 West. Gilma is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected for the next few days, and on the forecast track the remnants of Gilma should approach the Hawaiian Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Gilma is expected to weaken to a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, primarily north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Gilma may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian Islands as early as Friday, lasting through Saturday. For information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/281442.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
653 WTPA41 PHFO 281436 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 25 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 Convection redeveloped over the low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Hone shortly after the previous advisory, then collapsed a couple hours later allowing the LLCC to become exposed once again. It is clear the strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 knots is impeding any chance for intensification of this system at the moment. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates remain between 2.5 (35 kt) and 3.5 (55 kt). In addition a 0845Z ASCAT pass showed several 40 to 45 kt wind barbs. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 45 kt for this advisory. Hone continues to move just north of due west or 280/8 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. The motion is a bit more uncertain by the weekend as the system begins to interact with a mid-level low near the International Date Line. The track forecast calls for a slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest as a result of this interaction. Little change was made to the official track forecast which closely follows a blend of the FSSE, TVCE, and HCCA consensus track guidance. Strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 40 kt is forecast to affect Hone during the next few days. This combined with dry mid-level air surrounding the system should result in gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content. The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of the system, with Hone forecast to become a post-tropical low on Friday, and dissipate by Sunday. Little change was made to the intensity forecast which remains closely aligned with a blend of the statistical and dynamical consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 20.5N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 20.8N 170.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.1N 171.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 21.5N 173.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 21.9N 175.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 22.4N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 31/1200Z 23.0N 176.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/1200Z 25.5N 178.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/281436.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA12 PHFO 281439
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072024
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 145.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 150W 34 1 27(28) 7(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
20N 150W 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 151W 34 X 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HILO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LIHUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP2+shtml/281439.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA22 PHFO 281438 TCMCP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072024 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 145.7W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 145.7W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 145.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 147.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.6N 149.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.1N 152.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.7N 154.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 21.4N 156.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 22.3N 159.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 145.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP2+shtml/281438.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:35:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 15:23:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/143554.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:35:47 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_012adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:35:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_fcst_012.zip
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:35:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_012adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:34:59 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_5day_012.zip
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:34:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 14:34:32 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/143431.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
654 WTPZ43 KNHC 281433 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 GOES-18 proxy-vis imagery shows that the low-level center of Hector is exposed to the southwest of a large area of deep convection. A 28/1040 UTC ATMS microwave pass also supports the analysis of the exposed center located to the southwest of the convection. An ASCAT-B pass from 28/0608 UTC showed wind vectors up to 38 kt to the north of the center. However, the ASCAT data also shows that the wind structure on the south side is becoming weak and elongated. Although the scatterometer data still shows some weak west winds on the south side, Hector could be close to opening up into a trough. Subjective current intensity estimates are 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB. Objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS are a bit lower, ranging from 35 to 44 kt. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Hector is becoming a bit more ambiguous as there appears to be a couple of weak swirls, and the best estimate of the motion is westward, or 275/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving close to due west, steered by a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to its north. The new NHC forecast is just a tad slower than the previous official forecast and is close to the TVCE consensus aid. Moderate west-southwesterly wind shear has already caused the convective area to be displaced well to the northeast of the center. Given that Hector is expected to continue traveling within an environment of marginal SSTs, dry air, and moderate southwesterly shear, the NHC forecast will continue to show weakening, in agreement with the latest intensity consensus guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggests that Hector should lose its convection on Thursday, and the official forecast continues to show Hector degenerating to a remnant low at that time. Most of the global models show the remnants of Hector opening up into a trough by Friday. However, given the recent deteriorating surface wind structure observed on ASCAT and GOES-18 proxy vis imagery, it would not be surprising if Hector dissipated sooner than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 18.3N 132.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.5N 136.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart/Konarik
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/281433.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 281433
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 135W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/REINHART/KONARIK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP3+shtml/281433.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 281433
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 168.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 170W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 175W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
LISIANSKI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
KURE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/281433.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 281432 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Wed Aug 28 2024 ...HECTOR FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS IT HEADS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 132.9W ABOUT 1450 MI...2335 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 132.9 West. Hector is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Hector is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Reinhart/Konarik
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/281432.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 281432 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 132.9W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 132.9W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 132.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.5N 136.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.5N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.4N 142.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 132.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/REINHART/KONARIK
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP3+shtml/281432.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 281431 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 168.5W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 20SE 40SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 168.5W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 168.2W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.8N 170.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 55NE 0SE 0SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 171.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 173.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 21.9N 175.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 22.4N 176.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 23.0N 176.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 25.5N 178.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 168.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/281431.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 09:17:28 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 09:23:34 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/091728.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
702
FOPA11 PHFO 280845
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 167.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 170W 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/280845.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
265 WTPA42 PHFO 280848 TCDCP2 Tropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Infrared satellite imagery shows new deep convection in Gilma's northeast quadrant this evening, with cloud tops colder than -70 deg C. These thunderstorms have been unable to wrap around the center of the cyclone due to strong westerly winds aloft. The advisory intensity estimate is held at 45 kt based on a consensus of subjective Dvorak estimates of 3.0/45 kt from PHFO, JTWC and SAB. Gilma continues to move almost due west, and the initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A low-level ridge north of Gilma will steer the shallow cyclone westward to west-northwestward until it dissipates. There has been little change in the track guidance, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track, and lies close to HCCA and FSSE guidance. Although Gilma's recent rapid weakening trend has eased this evening, it is still expected to degenerate to a remnant low as it passes close to the Hawaiian Islands Friday and Saturday. Only slight changes to the intensity forecast have been made, mainly to keep Gilma at minimal tropical storm strength for a bit longer than previously indicated. Guidance indicates the strong westerly vertical wind shear currently impacting Gilma's circulation may briefly ease Wednesday as a passing trough aloft lifts north. Another trough aloft approaching from the west is expected to bring even stronger vertical wind shear Thursday and Friday, eventually leading to dissipation near Hawaii this weekend. The new intensity forecast follows trends presented by regional hurricane guidance and SHIPS guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.5N 144.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.8N 146.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 19.2N 148.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 19.7N 150.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 20.2N 153.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 20.8N 155.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/0600Z 21.7N 158.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP2+shtml/280848.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
166 WTPA31 PHFO 280844 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HONE CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 167.8W ABOUT 640 MI...1035 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM W OF LIHUE HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 167.8 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hone will continue moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands, and pass well north of Johnston Island late tonight and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Hone is forecast to become a post-tropical low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/280844.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
296 WTPA41 PHFO 280847 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 24 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 The low-level circulation center of Hone became exposed earlier this evening, due to increasingly strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 35 knots. Even though the LLCC is displaced to the west of the persistent deep convection, the latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates remain between 2.5 (35 kt) and 3.5 (55 kt). As a result, the initial intensity has been held at 45 kt for this advisory. Hone continues to move just north of due west or 280/9 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a low to mid-level ridge to the north. The motion is a bit more uncertain by the weekend as the system begins to interact with a mid-level low near the International Date Line. The track forecast calls for a slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest as a result of this interaction. Little change was made to the track forecast during the next couple days, followed by a nudge to the north over the weekend to better align with the latest dynamical and consensus guidance. Strong westerly vertical wind shear of around 40 kt is forecast to affect Hone during the next few days. This combined with dry mid-level air surrounding the system should result in gradual weakening despite the cyclone moving over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and higher ocean heat content. The intensity forecast calls for slow weakening of the system, with Hone forecast to become a post-tropical low by Friday, and dissipate on Sunday. Little change was made to the intensity forecast which remains closely aligned with the latest intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 20.4N 167.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 20.7N 169.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 21.1N 170.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 21.5N 172.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 21.8N 174.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 22.2N 175.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 31/0600Z 23.0N 176.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 01/0600Z 24.5N 178.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/280847.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
292 WTPA21 PHFO 280844 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 167.8W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 50SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 167.8W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 167.3W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 169.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.1N 170.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 21.5N 172.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.8N 174.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 22.2N 175.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 176.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 178.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 167.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/280844.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:43:44 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated 0
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp2+shtml/084344.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA32 PHFO 280840 TCPCP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gilma Advisory Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP072024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...GILMA'S WEAKENING TREND EASES... ...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT NEARS HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 144.5W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM E OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gilma was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 144.5 West. Gilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion between west and west-northwest is expected for the next few days, and on the forecast track the remnants of Gilma should approach the Hawaiian Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Gilma is expected to weaken to a remnant low by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Gilma may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Hawaiian Islands as early as Friday, lasting through Saturday. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Gilma. For information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/280840.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA12 PHFO 280838
PWSCP2
TROPICAL STORM GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072024
0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 144.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 145W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 150W 34 X 4( 4) 23(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 151W 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 6(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP2+shtml/280838.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA22 PHFO 280837 TCMCP2 TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP072024 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 144.5W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 144.5W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 143.9W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.8N 146.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 10SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.2N 148.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 19.7N 150.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 20.2N 153.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 20.8N 155.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.7N 158.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 144.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP2+shtml/280837.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:36:59 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_011adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:36:30 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_fcst_011.zip
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:36:24 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_011adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:36:03 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_5day_011.zip
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 08:35:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 28 Aug 2024 09:36:49 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083532.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280834 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector continues to produce a large area of deep convection, although it has become a little less organized this evening. Recent microwave imagery depicts that the system is starting to tilt due to 15-20 kt of westerly wind shear. A recent scatterometer pass of ASCAT-B depicted satellite derived winds around 38-40 kt. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have held steady for this advisory and range from 40-45 kt. Using a blend of ASCAT data and the intensity estimates, the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm continues to move west-northwestward at 285/10 kt. The mid-level ridge ridge to the north will keep Hector on a west-northwestward to westward motion the next day or so. As the system weakens and becomes vertically shallow a more westward motion will occur as the system is steered in the low-level flow. The model guidance is in fairly good agreement and the latest NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions near the system are not very favorable as Hector will continue to deal with westerly wind shear, drier air, and moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. This should cause Hector to gradually weaken over the next few days. Global models are in fairly good agreement that the system will struggle to produce organized deep convection in about 36 h, and open into a trough and dissipate in 60 h. This is reflected in the latest NHC intensity forecast, which lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 18.4N 132.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.5N 133.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 18.6N 135.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 18.6N 138.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0600Z 18.5N 141.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/280834.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 280834
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024
0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 135W 34 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP3+shtml/280834.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280833 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hector Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HECTOR FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 132.0W ABOUT 1460 MI...2350 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hector was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 132.0 West. Hector is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with a turn more westward is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next few days and Hector is forecast to become a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/280833.shtml
date: 2024-08-28, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280833 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 0900 UTC WED AUG 28 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 132.0W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 132.0W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 131.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.5N 133.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.6N 135.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 18.6N 138.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 18.5N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 132.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP3+shtml/280833.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 271445
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 145W 34 X 16(16) 11(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 150W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22)
20N 151W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/BROWN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/271445.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271445 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hector has become less organized during the past 12-24 hours. The center is now located near the western edge of a ragged convective mass. Objective and subjective T-numbers have decreased and the initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, which is a blend of these estimates. The environment ahead of Gilma does not look conducive. Moderate westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and marginal sea surface temperatures should cause gradual weakening over the next 36-48 hours. Hector will be moving over the cool wake of Gilma and this could result in a faster rate of weakening than indicated below. The system is now forecast to become a remnant low in about 60 hours, and dissipate by day 4. Hector is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. A turn to the west is expected during the next day or so as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hector. The latest NHC track forecast is near or slightly north of the previous forecast due to a more northward initial position, but it still lies near the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 17.6N 128.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/271445.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…GILMA RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN… …FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER… As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Gilma was located near 18.5, -140.7 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/271445.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 271445
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 130W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP3+shtml/271445.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:45:03 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP07/atcf-ep072024.xml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 271444 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 128.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.0N 130.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 134.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 136.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.4N 139.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.3N 142.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 128.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP3+shtml/271444.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 271444 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 140.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 140.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON GILMA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/271444.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…HECTOR CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD… As of 5:00 AM HST Tue Aug 27 the center of Hector was located near 17.6, -128.7 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/271444.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:41:05 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 14:41:05 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/144105.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-27, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 271440 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 21 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 Hone continues to produce some vigorous deep convection, but this activity is not well organized, and the overall cloud pattern is rather ragged-looking. The area of cold cloud tops has a sharp edge on the western side of the circulation, indicative of westerly shear over the system. The advisory intensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with a subjective Dvorak satellite estimate from PHFO. The storm is moving a little north of west with an initial motion estimate of 280/12 kt. A mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast to remain north of Hone for the next 48 to 72 hours. This should result in a generally west-northwestward track until the system dissipates later this week. The official forecast track is very close to the previous one and in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Hone is likely to remain in an environment of strong upper-level westerly winds for the next few days, which should maintain strong vertical wind shear over the cyclone. Thus, even though the system will be traversing gradually warmer waters, shear and dry air are likely to cause weakening through the forecast period. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF global models show the system losing most of its deep convection in about 60 hours, as does the official forecast. By the weekend, the dynamical guidance indicates that Hone will open up into a trough over the western part of the Central Pacific basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.9N 165.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.1N 167.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 20.5N 169.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 20.9N 171.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.4N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.9N 175.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/1200Z 22.5N 176.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/271440.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 271439
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 165.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 165W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 170W 34 1 20(21) 12(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
20N 170W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
25N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/271439.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 271439 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 21 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Tue Aug 27 2024 ...HONE CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM HAWAII... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 165.4W ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WSW OF LIHUE HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 165.4 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hone will continue moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands, and pass well north of Johnston Island tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Hone is expected to become a post-tropical low on Thursday, and then dissipate on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/271439.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 271439 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 ISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 165.4W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 60SE 80SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 165.4W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 164.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.1N 167.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 169.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.9N 171.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.4N 173.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.9N 175.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.5N 176.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 165.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/271439.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:36:39 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep072024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:36:39 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep072024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:35:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 09:29:26 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083536.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 270833 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Satellite imagery depicts Gilma has started to weaken, and become less organized over the last several hours. Infrared images indicate that the previous well-defined eye has filled, and cloud tops have started to warm. The system is starting to encounter some westerly wind shear as well, as evident by a sharper sheared edge on the western side of the cyclone. A SSMIS microwave pass around 03Z depicts the eyewall has started to become less pronounced on the southern side, and may even be open. Subjective and objective intensity estimates have decreased from the previous advisory and range between 85-95 kt. Given the satellite degradation and a blend of the intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt for this advisory. Gilma is moving westward at 275/9 kt. A subtropical ridge should continue to steer the system generally westward to west-northwestward, with a gradual increase in forward speed over the next several days. On this track, Gilma should enter the Central Pacific basin by tomorrow. The track guidance continues to be fairly well clustered, with the main difference being the forward speed. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, and lies near the simple consensus aids. While Gilma has fought off the marginal environment and maintained hurricane status longer than anticipated, it seems the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming increasingly unfavorable. Westerly wind shear is starting to increase, as is evident in the satellite depiction, and is forecast to increase throughout the next several days. The system is also starting to move into a drier and more stable airmass with sub 26C sea-surface temperatures. This will result in steady weakening throughout the forecast period. Model simulated satellite suggest that Gilma will struggle to produce deep convection around 72 h and is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at that time. Global models also indicate that Gilma should dissipate into an open trough by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and lies near the simple and corrected consensus intensity aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 18.5N 139.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 18.6N 140.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 18.8N 143.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 19.2N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/1800Z 20.2N 150.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 20.7N 152.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 31/0600Z 21.8N 156.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/270833.shtml
date: 2024-08-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 08:32:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 27 Aug 2024 09:35:26 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/083251.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1998
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Areas affected...Portions of southern New England
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648...
Valid 261826Z - 262030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 648
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail and isolated wind damage will remain possible
until storms move offshore. Should additional storms develop to the
north, the severe risk will likely be more marginal.
DISCUSSION...Scattered storms continue across parts of southern New
England. Thus far, 1-1.5 inch hail has been the primary observed
hazard over the past 90 minutes. The environment will remain
supportive of large hail and isolated wind damage before storms move
offshore within the next few hours. Given the position of the
greatest mid-level ascent on water vapor imagery, additional
development to the north of the current activity will likely be more
isolated in nature. With shear and buoyancy weaker with northern
extent, the severe threat should remain more marginal.
..Wendt.. 08/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42347325 42927289 42817232 42307167 41827085 41616978
41426943 41226949 41147021 40877203 40737280 40867308
42347325
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1998.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1997
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central Minnesota
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261735Z - 261900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Initial storm development in central Minnesota may be
elevated to marginally surface based and struggle against residual
capping. Should storms mature, large hail and wind damage are
possible. A watch is possible, but this will depend on trends in
convective evolution.
DISCUSSION...Convection has developed in west-central Minnesota,
likely aided by weak warm advection at lower levels. This mornings
soundings from Aberdeen/Minneapolis showed a warm nose within the
850-700 mb layer. It appears that convection is struggling to
intensify/organize with this capping in place. Furthermore,
large-scale ascent is currently weak. Should this activity mature,
large hail and isolated wind damage would be possible.
Short-term guidance is not consistent in how this activity will
evolve, with some suggesting it will weaken in the next few hours
and others showing cold pool development that spurs new convection
farther south where greater buoyancy resides. From a large-scale
perspective, greater ascent/mid-level cooling is not expected until
later in the afternoon, though an MCV moving through eastern South
Dakota could potentially supplement ascent locally earlier. The most
probable scenario is that more robust convection will develop by
mid/late afternoon near an area of surface convergence in central
Minnesota. The need for a watch in the short term is uncertain;
however, trends will continue to be closely monitored this
afternoon.
..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 45449550 45369626 45559646 46069663 46529636 47109448
46939347 46459331 45849401 45449550
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1997.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1996
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Areas affected...northeast WY...southeast MT...western SD...and
western NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 261715Z - 261915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase over the next
few hours across eastern Wyoming into far southeast Montana, western
South Dakota and western Nebraska. Large hail and severe wind gusts
possible with this activity. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely
be needed for portions of the region in the next couple of hours.
DISCUSSION...A strong mid/upper trough will continue to eject
east/northeast across WY/MT this afternoon, providing ample
large-scale ascent for thunderstorm development. Boundary-layer
moisture will remain modest, but cool temperatures aloft/steep lapse
rates will foster MLCAPE from 1000-2000 J/kg. Effective shear
greater than 40 kt will favor organized updrafts, with a mix of
supercells and line segments possible. Elongated/straight hodographs
combined with a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment
will support large hail, with some potential for isolated hail
stones in the 2-3 inch diameter range in the strongest cells.
Additional heating will result in steepening low-level lapse rates,
enhancing severe gust potential, particularly across parts of
eastern WY into far southwest SD and northwest NE, where a few gusts
greater than 70 mph are possible.
Some uncertainty exists on the north/east extent of severe potential
as morning convection across central SD has left lingering cloud
cover while reinforcing a more southward position of a surface
baroclinic zone near the SD/NE border. Nevertheless, a severe
thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of the MCD
area within the next couple of hours.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 44420658 45310621 45620539 45600423 45250310 44400151
43620098 42350143 41960182 41650245 41570361 41790478
42240588 43870665 44420658
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1996.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 648 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Southern New Hampshire Southeast New York Rhode Island Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify as they generally move south-southeastward through the afternoon, with the strongest storms capable of hail and locally damaging winds. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Keene NH to 25 miles south of Groton CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 35025. ...Guyer
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0648.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 648 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998 ..WENDT..08/26/24 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 648 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-261940- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM MAC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027- 261940- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNSTABLE BERKSHIRE BRISTOL DUKES ESSEX FRANKLIN HAMPDEN HAMPSHIRE MIDDLESEX NANTUCKET NORFOLK PLYMOUTH SUFFOLK WORCESTER NHC005-011-013-015-261940-
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0648.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1995
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Areas affected...portions of New England
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261551Z - 261745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and hail
around 1-1.5 inch diameter through the afternoon. Trends are being
monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and
intensity at midday as strong heating occurs across a seasonally
moist airmass. The 12z RAOB from ALB indicated modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km amid 30 kt 0-6 km
northwesterly flow. Cool midlevel temperatures contributing modest
instability, and elongated/straight hodographs suggest large hail
will be possible with stronger cells. Effective shear magnitudes
will be somewhat marginal for longer-lived well-organized updrafts,
and convection may be somewhat pulse-like. As additional heating
occurs, steepening low-level lapse rates also may support sporadic
strong/locally damaging gusts. Convective trends are being monitored
for possible watch issuance for portions of the MCD area, with
somewhat greater watch potential focused across southern New England
this afternoon.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
LAT...LON 42417333 43477307 43887195 44077104 44017041 43706991
42857006 41637019 41037123 40527256 40627289 41347314
42417333
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1995.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1994
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2024
Areas affected...portions of central WY
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 261458Z - 261630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may sporadically produce large hail
to near 1.25 inch diameter and strong gusts to 65 mph into early
afternoon across portions of central Wyoming.
DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms have developed
this morning within strong ascent associated with an upper shortwave
trough now ejecting east/northeast across western WY. The 12z RAOB
from RIW showed very steep midlevel lapse rates and cold
temperatures aloft amid increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper
level flow. This vertical wind profile will maintain
elongated/straight hodographs as the system continues to progress
east/northeast into early afternoon. This environment will remain
favorable for marginally severe hail over the next few hours. As
stronger heating occurs with eastward extent, steepening low-level
lapse rates and only modest boundary layer moisture may foster
isolated strong gusts as well. Given limited coverage and overall
marginal nature of the severe risk over the next few hours, a watch
is not expected.
..Leitman/Guyer.. 08/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...RIW...
LAT...LON 42800862 43360840 43940779 44260736 44500660 44530627
44270561 43710536 43010589 42500653 42420735 42450818
42800862
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1994.html
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:01:38 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_034adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:01:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_fcst_034.zip
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:01:12 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_034adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:00:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_5day_034.zip
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:00:26 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:29:14 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/150026.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 261459 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Gilma still has a well-defined eye, seen on GOES-18 infrared and proxy-vis satellite imagery. The latest subjective intensity estimates are T-4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T-5.0/90 kt from SAB. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS such as the ADT and DPRINT are in the 80 to 85 kt range. However, during the last couple of hours, the eye has warmed and the cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, so the initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, in best agreement with the SAB Dvorak intensity estimate. Gilma is likely currently experiencing 10 to 15 kt of westerly wind shear as it continues moving near and parallel to the 26C SST isotherm. Fluctuations in intensity appear possible for the next 12 h. Beyond 12 to 18 h, the westerly shear is forecast to increase to the 15 to 20 kt range, and the SSTs are forecast to decrease slightly along the path beyond 36 h. These factors, along with the relatively dry, stable environmental air mass that Gilma will be traversing for the remainder of its lifetime, are expected to lead to continued steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous official forecast at hour 12, and then is similar to the previous official forecast. The NHC forecast is near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/7 kt as it continues moving along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge. The models continue to be in good cross-track agreement that the west to west-northwestward motion will continue, although there are still some along-track differences in the guidance. The new NHC forecast lies very close to, but perhaps a touch to the south of the previous official forecast. This forecast is close to the HCCA and TCVE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 18.2N 136.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/261459.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…GILMA SLIGHTLY STRONGER… As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Gilma was located near 18.2, -136.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/261454.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 261454
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024
1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 140W 34 1 26(27) 8(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
20N 140W 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 18(51) 1(52) X(52)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) X(14)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/261454.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 261453 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 136.5W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 136.5W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 136.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 137.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 139.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 141.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 148.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 152.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 21.8N 156.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 136.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/261453.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 261445 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Moderate westerly shear is continuing to take a toll on Hone. The low level circulation appears to be partly exposed and the center is likely near the western edge of an earlier burst of convection. PHFO and JTWC subjective intensities were 3.5, which agrees well with UW-CIMSS SATCON and AiDT. The initial intensity was lowered to 55 kt with this advisory. Hone continues to move just north of due west, 280/11, to the south of deep layer ridging. This general motion should persist for the next several days and the track guidance is still relatively tightly clustered. The current forecast is very similar to the previous forecast track. Although Hone will be moving over warmer sea surface temperatures, increasingly strong shear through the forecast period will continue to gradually weaken the tropical cyclone. Later in the forecast period, the low level trade wind flow will continue to take the shallow circulation of Hone on a westward journey. Most of the guidance shows a slightly slower forward speed prior to expected dissipation. The intensity forecast continues to be a blend of the statistical and dynamical guidance, and very similar to the previous forecast package. Hone should become a remnant low in about 4 days prior to dissipation as it approaches the International Date Line. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.4N 161.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.5N 162.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 19.6N 165.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 19.9N 167.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 20.3N 169.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 20.7N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 21.1N 174.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.7N 178.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/261445.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:40:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_004adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:40:52 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:23:00 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/144052.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:40:36 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_fcst_004.zip
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:40:19 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP082024_004adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:40:12 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep082024_5day_004.zip
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 14:39:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 15:35:20 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep3+shtml/143941.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261438 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hector Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 Microwave imagery continues to show evidence of northerly shear over the cyclone, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the south of the surface center. However, the overall cloud pattern appears to be slightly better organized than it was yesterday with some evidence of banding features over the eastern portion of the circulation. The advisory intensity has been increased a bit, to 45 kt, in agreement with subjective Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers from TAFB and SAB. Center fixes from geostationary and microwave imagery give a westward motion at around 270/9 kt. A weak low- to mid-level ridge is currently situated to the north of Hector, and the global models suggest that the ridge will build a little in a few days. The track guidance calls for a west-northwestward to westward heading with a slight increase in forward speed for the next 3-5 days. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the dynamical model consensus predictions. Although the vertical shear is not forecast to be very strong, Hector is expected to traverse marginal SSTs for the next few days while it moves over or near the oceanic wake of Hurricane Gilma. Also, the global models show the system encountering increasingly dry air at low- to mid-levels. The intensity guidance does not call for much additional strengthening and the official forecast is at the high end of the model predictions. With the expected less favorable environment, a weakening trend is likely to begin in a couple of days. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS models show little or no deep convection associated with Hector by the end of the forecast period, so the official forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.2N 124.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.1N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.4N 130.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 17.6N 132.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 29/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 17.7N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 17.5N 142.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/261438.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 261438
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 161.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 160W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BUOY 51003 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
22N 164W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NECKER 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 165W 34 3 69(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
20N 165W 50 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 165W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 170W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36)
20N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/261438.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…HECTOR A BIT STRONGER… As of 5:00 AM HST Mon Aug 26 the center of Hector was located near 16.2, -124.9 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP3+shtml/261437.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ13 KNHC 261437
PWSEP3
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024
1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HECTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP3+shtml/261437.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 261437 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 17 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Mon Aug 26 2024 ...HONE CONTINUING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 161.0W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF HONOLULU HAWAII ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSW OF LIHUE HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 161.0 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Hone will continue moving away from the main Hawaiian Islands, and pass well north of Johnston Island Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to continue for the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/261437.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ23 KNHC 261437 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HECTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.9W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 124.9W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.6N 126.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.4N 130.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 17.6N 132.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 134.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 17.7N 137.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 17.5N 142.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP3+shtml/261437.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 261437 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 161.0W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..160NE 40SE 40SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 161.0W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 160.4W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 162.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.6N 165.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 10SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.9N 167.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.3N 169.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.7N 172.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.1N 174.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 21.7N 178.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 161.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER R BALLARD
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/261437.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 260850 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 16 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hone appears quite disorganized on satellite and radar this evening. However, the earlier exposed low level circulation center is once again obscured by layered cloud, and a ragged band of deep convection has redeveloped around a portion of the low level circulation center. The current intensity has been reduced to 60 kt, which is a blend of the unanimous data-T numbers and current intensity estimates from the fix agencies. This could be generous, given Hone's messy appearance. The initial motion is 280/12. Deep layer ridging to the north of Hone is expected to maintain the system on a westerly track the next few days. Later in the forecast period, Hone is expected to be increasingly steered by the low level tradewind flow to the south of a vast subtropical ridge spanning much of the Pacific. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the latest official forecast is very similar to the previous. The UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows Hone is already in an environment of moderate shear. Over the next few days, Hone will continue to skirt along the southern periphery of the subtropical jet, subjecting the system to increasing westerly shear. This should continue the weakening trend, despite a gradual increase in sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The intensity forecast continues to agree well with the statistical and dynamical guidance, and dissipation is expected as a remnant low late in the week. Mahalo to both the U.S. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters for gathering much critical data from Tropical Cyclone Hone the last few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.3N 159.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 19.4N 161.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 19.6N 163.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 19.8N 166.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 20.1N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.5N 170.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.9N 173.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.6N 177.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/260850.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:46:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 09:22:53 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/084640.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:34:05 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_033adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:33:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_fcst_033.zip
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:33:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_033adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:33:06 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_5day_033.zip
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 08:32:38 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 26 Aug 2024 09:29:05 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083238.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260831 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 1100 PM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 This evening's satellite presentation consists of a ragged partially obscured eye with a small inner core open in the south semi-circle. Gilma's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate slowly and has shed most of the associated convective bands with the exception of fragmented curved band wrapping in from the south. The initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt and is based on the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a blend of the UW-CIMSS ADT, AiDT, and DMINT objective estimates, yielding 83 kt. Water vapor imagery and global model RH/700mb fields indicate that the cyclone is moving toward a dry, stable air mass, indicative of a large low-level stratocumulus cloud deck intruding from the northwest in the GOES-18 Proxy-VIS images. Subsequently, the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS indicated a mid-level/700-500mb RH of 42 percent. This inhibiting thermodynamic contribution, along with increasing west-to-west-southwesterly shear noted in the statistical SHIPS intensity guidance, particularly beyond 36 hrs, should cause Gilma to weaken at a quicker rate through day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise of the Decay-SHIPS and the IVCN intensity consensus and shows Gilma degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone in 4 days. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/8 kt, and is moving in the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending westward across the tropical-eastern Pacific from northwestern Mexico. The global and regional models are fairly clustered together and indicate a slightly to the right of the initial track motion, or west-northwestward beyond the 60 hr period, and the official forecast follows suit. Along-track differences continue to be a model inconsistency, but following the skilled TVCE and HCCA consensus models have been the best track forecast solution so far. Gilma's 50 kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted based on a 0559 UTC METOP-C ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.1N 135.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/260831.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 260831
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024
0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 140W 34 X 12(12) 32(44) 1(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
20N 140W 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 37(55) X(55) X(55)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 1(18)
20N 150W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14)
20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/260831.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…GILMA EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH TUESDAY… As of 11:00 PM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.1, -135.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/260830.shtml
date: 2024-08-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260830 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 135SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.3N 137.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.5N 138.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 140.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.4N 145.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 147.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.6N 151.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.6N 155.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 135.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/260830.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 18:22:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:39:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/182239.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 251758 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 800 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HONE GRADUALLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE BIG ISLAND BUT CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 156.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF KONA HAWAII ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Hone. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hone was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 156.6 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days, with some increase in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Hone is expected to gradually weaken the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hone can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header TCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/HFOTCDCP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall over mainly southeast and south facing slopes of the Big Island. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches will be possible over the smaller islands, mainly windward. SURF: Swells generated by Hone are affecting portions of the Hawaiian islands, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/251758.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 1987
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024
Areas affected...parts of eastern Utah...adjacent northwestern
Colorado and southwestern Wyoming
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 251627Z - 251830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Intensifying renewed thunderstorm development is possible
across much of eastern Utah by 1-2 PM MDT. Widely scattered
stronger storms may pose a risk for severe hail and wind while
spreading northeastward and eastward through late afternoon. While
it is still not yet certain that a severe weather watch will be
needed, trends are being monitored for this possibility.
DISCUSSION...Downstream of a seasonably vigorous short wave trough
slowly progressing east-northeastward through the Great Basin, a
narrow band of large-scale ascent continues to gradually spread east
of the Wasatch. This is in the wake of initial low-level warm
advection driven convection now spreading spreading northeastward
through the Colorado and adjacent Wyoming Rockies, with insolation
across a relatively moist boundary layer over much of eastern Utah
contributing to increasing destabilization.
Through 18-20Z, models suggest that mixed-layer CAPE may increase to
500-1000 J/kg, coincident with further strengthening of south to
southwesterly mid/upper wind fields (including 30-70+ kt in the
700-300 mb layer). As new thunderstorm development begins to
initiate, it appears that this regime will become potentially
conducive to evolution of isolated supercells. In addition to
posing a risk for large hail, stronger storms may become capable of
producing locally severe wind gusts, particularly as they spread
across the more strongly heated and deeply mixed lower elevations
through late afternoon.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 40631059 41650798 40220842 38420926 37600986 37181085
37551144 39331088 40631059
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1987.html
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA61 PHFO 251630 TCUCP1 Hurricane Hone Tropical Cyclone Update NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 630 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HURRICANE HONE CONTINUES TO LASH THE BIG ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 600 AM HST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM S OF KAILUA-KONA HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES $$ Forecaster Birchard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCUCP1+shtml/251630.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:36:41 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:39:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/153641.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_030adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:21 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_fcst_030.zip
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:47:08 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP072024_030adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:46:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep072024_5day_030.zip
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 14:46:32 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 25 Aug 2024 15:28:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/144632.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251445 TCDEP2 Hurricane Gilma Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Over the last 6 hours, Gilma's eye has continued to be present on most of the infrared and proxy vis images. However, the eye has become a bit more cloud-filled, and the convection over the southwestern eyewall is slightly less robust. Although the CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are still T-6.0/115 kt, the respective Final T numbers are lower than that. Recent UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates range from 84 to 113 kt. Based on a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is nudged down slightly to 110 kt for this advisory. Gilma is currently moving very near the 26C isotherm and is located in an environment of low vertical wind shear. The middle troposphere is fairly dry in the environment surrounding Gilma, but the cyclone has been able to prevent the dry air from entraining into the center enough to significantly disrupt the hurricane. The environmental conditions are not forecast to become more conducive for strengthening. Westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase slightly by late tonight or early Monday. SSTs should decrease slightly along the path of Gilma by late Monday or Monday night. Based on these factors, only slow weakening is forecast for the next 24 h followed by more steady weakening after that. The confidence in the intensity forecast seems slightly below average in the short-term while Gilma straddles the 26C SST isotherm and remains in relatively low shear. In the 24 to 96 h time frame, Gilma should be weakening, but the rate at which it weakens is a bit uncertain. By day 4, vertical wind shear increases to moderate to strong, making it likely that Gilma should be significantly weaker in the 4- to 5-day time frame. Gilma is forecast to lose its convection and become a remnant low by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, perhaps showing a slightly slower rate of weakening in the 36-72 h period, closer to the latest intensity consensus guidance. Gilma's initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/8 kt. A strengthening mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge situated to the north of the hurricane should steer Gilma on a westward to west-northwestward track through the forecast period. The official forecast is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and is close to a blend of the TVCE and GFEX. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.0N 133.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.0N 147.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.6N 151.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/251445.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
653
FOPZ12 KNHC 251444
PWSEP2
HURRICANE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 135W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
20N 135W 34 11 11(22) 3(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
15N 140W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
20N 140W 34 X 2( 2) 26(28) 38(66) 5(71) X(71) X(71)
20N 140W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24)
20N 140W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 15(48) X(48)
20N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14)
20N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/251444.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…GILMA STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE… As of 5:00 AM HST Sun Aug 25 the center of Gilma was located near 18.0, -133.5 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/251444.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251444 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 133.5W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 60SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 133.5W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 133.1W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.1N 134.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.3N 136.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.5N 138.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.7N 140.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 142.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.2N 143.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.0N 147.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 133.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/PASCH
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/251444.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 251436 TCDCP1 Hurricane Hone Discussion Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 Hone is passing by around 40 nautical miles south of South Point on the Big Island of Hawaii this morning, where it is within radar range. Combined radar, and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft mission earlier this morning, support raising the initial intensity of Hone to 75 knots, keeping it a Category 1 Hurricane. Despite recent subjective Dvorak estimates suggesting a slightly lower intensity, the satellite presentation has evolved markedly overnight, with cold cloud tops near -75 C reinforcing the radar and aircraft-based intensities. The initial intensity is raised to 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion of Hone is set at 280/07. This westward trajectory is expected to persist over the coming days, influenced by a subtropical ridge to the north. However, as Hone remains near the Big Island through the early morning hours today, the mountainous terrain could influence local steering currents, potentially leading to localized and short-term deviations in the storm's motion and intensity. As we move into the early to mid portion of the week, Hone is projected to encounter increasing vertical wind shear, which is expected to weaken the storm and make it more shallow. This change in conditions will allow the low-level trade wind flow to steer the system toward the west-southwest. The official forecast track remains nearly identical to the previous advisory and is closely aligned with the tightly clustered consensus guidance. Environmental conditions affecting Hone will remain steady over the next 12 to 24 h, with sea surface temperatures between 26 C and 27 C, light to moderate vertical wind shear, and sufficient mid-level moisture. This supports maintaining a steady trend in intensity through the morning hours today. Although sea surface temperatures are forecast to rise to around 27 C tonight and beyond as Hone continues westward, increasing vertical wind shear will translate to a gradual weakening trend later today through the middle of the week. The intensity forecast closely follows dynamical consensus guidance. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. 2. Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward. 3. Swells generated by Hone will continue today as this system continues westward. Expect dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 18.3N 156.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 18.6N 157.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.9N 160.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 19.0N 162.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 19.4N 166.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 28/1200Z 19.7N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 29/1200Z 20.5N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 30/1200Z 20.6N 175.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/251436.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 251435
PWSCP1
HURRICANE HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 156.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75
KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HILO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
18N 156W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
18N 156W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SOUTH POINT 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
21N 156W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KAILUA-KONA 34 21 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
KAHULUI 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
21N 158W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BARKING SANDS 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HANA 34 2 15(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
LANAI CITY 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BUOY 51002 34 21 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
HONOLULU 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
JOINT BASE PHH 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
LIHUE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 160W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 160W 34 2 50(52) 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
20N 160W 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
20N 160W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
NIIHAU 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
21N 160W 34 2 9(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
BUOY 51003 34 2 66(68) 19(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
BUOY 51003 50 X 21(21) 21(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
BUOY 51003 64 X 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NIHOA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
22N 164W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NECKER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 165W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 29(34) 11(45) X(45) X(45)
20N 165W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
20N 165W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
FR FRIG SHOALS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
JOHNSTON ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
20N 170W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) X(27)
20N 170W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
20N 170W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/251435.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 251434 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Hone Advisory Number 13 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Aug 25 2024 ...HONE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 156.1W ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM SW OF HILO HAWAII ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for... * Hawaii County A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are imminent or occurring somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Hone. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hone was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 156.1 West. Hone is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through the morning hours today, before a gradual weakening trend begins this afternoon onward. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Hone can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header TCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41 PHFO, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/HFOTCDCP1.shtml. WIND: Tropical Storm conditions will continue on the Big Island through the morning hours. Winds are expected to be strongest downslope of higher terrain, over headlands, and through passes. RAINFALL: Hone is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches over mainly windward and southeast facing slopes of the Big Island, with locally higher amounts possible. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible over portions of the smaller islands, mainly windward. SURF: Surf associated with large swells generated by Hone will continue today as Hone tracks westward. Expect dangerous conditions with life-threatening surf and rip currents. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema/Gibbs
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/251434.shtml
date: 2024-08-25, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 251434 TCMCP1 HURRICANE HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 156.1W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..230NE 70SE 50SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 156.1W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 155.7W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.6N 157.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.9N 160.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 162.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 85NE 45SE 35SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 164.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 10SE 5SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 166.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 5SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 75NE 40SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.7N 168.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 35SE 25SW 65NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 20.5N 172.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 15SW 45NW. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.6N 175.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 156.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 PHFO/HFOTCPCP1...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA/GIBBS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/251434.shtml