(date: 2024-09-15 10:48:51)
date: 2024-09-15, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 151740
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
800 AM HST Sun Sep 15 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Wroe
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151735
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active
Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last
advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana, located over the Gulf
of California.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected
during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-09-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...ND INTO NORTHWEST MN...EASTERN NC AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... On Monday, sporadic severe gusts and hail will be possible during the afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. Isolated severe storms are possible over eastern North Dakota into northwest Minnesota. Some tornado threat may develop over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. ...Eastern Great Basin to the Four Corners... A seasonably strong mid-level low initially near San Francisco Bay Monday morning should move east during the day, before curling northeast Monday night towards the NV/UT/ID border area. This will occur in response to a strong mid-level jet translating through the basal portion of the large-scale trough across the Desert Southwest into the eastern Great Basin. Convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period near the midlevel low, and also farther east toward the Four Corners region, within the warm/moist conveyor. Relatively strong heating will be possible between these two regimes, from eastern NV into parts of UT. While buoyancy will likely remain quite weak within this warmer and more well-mixed regime, high-based convection will be possible during the afternoon and evening as the midlevel low approaches the region, with increasing meridional flow and a deeply mixed boundary layer supporting isolated severe gusts. Farther southeast into eastern UT and the Four Corners vicinity, increasing southwesterly flow aloft and strengthening deep-layer shear will become conditionally supportive of organized convection. Warmer midlevel temperatures may limit buoyancy to some extent, though sufficient moisture will support afternoon MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. A few supercells will be possible within this regime, with an attendant threat of isolated severe gusts and hail. ...Parts of ND into northern MN... With the primary upper-level trough displaced well to the west, deep-layer shear will remain weak across much of the Great Plains. However, most guidance suggests an MCV will emanate out of central High Plains convection on D1/Sunday and gradually progress northeast towards the Red River Valley during the day on Monday. In conjunction with a strengthening low-level jet, this MCV may help to support relatively vigorous storm redevelopment within a moderately unstable environment during the afternoon and evening. Stronger midlevel flow attendant to the MCV could support some storm organization, and a couple supercells and/or stronger clusters will be possible, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging wind. Somewhat favorable low-level shear/SRH could also support a tornado threat, if a surface-based supercell can be sustained. Uncertainty remains regarding the strength/timing of any MCV moving across the region, along with the most favored corridor for diurnal storm development. ...Eastern NC and vicinity... Guidance generally suggests that an initially offshore surface low will move northward or northwestward from later on D1/Sunday into D2/Monday and D3/Tuesday, and eventually move inland across some part of the Carolinas. However, uncertainty remains regarding the timing, track, and intensity of this low, along with the extent to which it acquires any tropical or subtropical characteristics. If a deepening low does move onshore, then a higher theta-e airmass may move inland, accompanied by increasing low-level shear/SRH along/north of the low track. While the general scenario supports some potential for low-topped supercells, the magnitude of any tornado threat will be dependent on the extent of intensification that occurs with the low (and its attendant wind fields) prior to landfall. The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat across eastern NC and vicinity, in response to the various uncertainties. ..Dean.. 09/15/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-09-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 15 17:30:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-09-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 15 17:30:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-09-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail may occur today and tonight across parts of the northern/central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains... An amplified upper trough along/near the West Coast this morning will further evolve into a closed upper low over northern CA and vicinity by late tonight. Ahead of this feature, modestly enhanced south-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over much of the western states and Rockies through the period. Although low-level moisture is expected to remain limited over much of this region, isolated strong to severe gusts may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop in a deeply mixed boundary layer favorable for gusty downdraft winds. Latest guidance continues to suggest that a relatively greater concentration of severe potential will be focused across parts of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon through tonight. Across this area, a weak surface lee trough and greater low-level moisture to its east should support weak to moderate instability with daytime heating. Steep mid-level lapse rates should also aid updraft accelerations/intensities, with around 20-30 kt of deep-layer shear supporting modest thunderstorm organization. Isolated severe hail may occur with initially more discrete convection, but a tendency for clustering should lead to a relatively greater wind threat with time as convection spreads generally east-northeastward through the evening. Regardless, the overall severe threat from northeast CO into western NE/SD and vicinity should remain fairly isolated/marginal given the modest deep-layer shear. Low-level warm advection is forecast to increase across much of the northern/central Plains tonight as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. A surface warm front is also expected to lift northward over ND late tonight into early Monday morning. With steepening mid-level lapse rates overspreading the northern Plains in tandem with increasing low-level moisture, ample MUCAPE should be available. Most guidance shows at least isolated convection developing across parts of ND tonight in this favorable thermodynamic environment. Although deep-layer shear may remain fairly modest, it may still be sufficient for updraft organization and an isolated threat for severe hail with any elevated convection that can form. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk northward to account for this potential. ...Coastal Carolinas... Latest NHC forecast continues to indicate some potential for sub-tropical or tropical development of a surface low currently off the SC Coast. Regardless of development, it still appears that the more moist/tropical low-level airmass over the Gulf Stream will struggle to advance inland over coastal portions of NC/SC through the end of the Day 1 forecast period early Monday morning (16/12Z). Accordingly, tornado potential with any low-topped supercells on the north to northeast periphery of the surface low should tend to remain offshore until Day 2/Monday (after 16/12Z). ..Gleason/Moore.. 09/15/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-09-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains on track, with minor changes made to the Elevated areas to reflect the latest guidance consensus. Additionally, a couple of dry strikes may accompany isolated thunderstorms along the Front Range in eastern Colorado (and surrounding areas), but overall modest fuel receptiveness suggests that lightning-induced fire ignitions should remain a localized concern, so no isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added. ..Squitieri.. 09/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread the Great Basin, while a related surface cyclone evolves over northern NV. Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft, along with a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH over southern/central NV. Given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Additionally, large-scale ascent accompanying the amplifying midlevel trough will promote a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms across the northern Great Basin/Intermountain West. While quick storm motions and limited precipitation with some of this activity could yield a risk of lightning-induced ignitions, marginal fuels should generally limit the threat. Over the southern High Plains, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will develop amid a warm/dry boundary layer near a lee trough during the afternoon. This will favor a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 15:23:26 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-09-15, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:43:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_013adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:42:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep092024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:42:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep092024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:42:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep092024_fcst_013.zip
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:42:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_013adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:41:53 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep092024_5day_013.zip
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:41:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 15:28:48 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/144129.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
227 WTPZ44 KNHC 151440 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024 Ileana has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday afternoon, as the system has been within a strong wind shear and very dry environment. Given the lack of convection, the system is being designated as a post-tropical remnant low. An ASCAT-C pass from late last night depicted winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of California near northern Sinaloa. Given this, will hold the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous. The system has been meandering over the Gulf of California with a motion of 310/3 kt. The remnant low will increase forward speed later today as it continues northwestward. The remnant low will continue to weaken throughout the day, and is forecast to dissipate on Monday. This is the last advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 25.7N 109.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/151440.shtml
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…ILEANA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW… …THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY… As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Sep 15 the center of Ileana was located near 25.7, -109.6 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/151439.shtml
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
221
FOPZ14 KNHC 151439
PWSEP4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/151439.shtml
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sun, 15 Sep 2024 14:39:31 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP09/atcf-ep092024.xml
date: 2024-09-15, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
198 WTPZ24 KNHC 151438 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.6W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 109.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/151438.shtml
date: 2024-09-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the central and northern High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a blocky longwave pattern will remain over the CONUS, with amplifying troughing in the West and a Rex configuration in the East. Cyclonic flow already covers most of the land west of the Rockies. That will continue but with backing of the flow aloft, as a cyclone now centered over Vancouver Island strengthens and digs south-southeastward down the West Coast. By 12Z tomorrow, the associated 500-mb low should be located near OAK, with strongly difluent flow and modest ridging over the High Plains from eastern NM to MT. The southern part of a weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from UT to eastern AZ -- should cross CO today and reach the eastern border of WY to near GLD by 12Z, likely enhanced from this evening onward by convectively generated vorticity. A mid/upper anticyclone now over the Lower Great Lakes will stretch eastward and open up to that direction around the end of the period. The base of the eastern pattern block will be composed of a broad, nearly zonal height weakness anchored by: 1. The decaying remains of Francine, long merged with a mid/upper low, and forecast to drift erratically over the Mid-South while weakening further; 2. An intensifying, deep-layer cyclone with low-level manifestation as a deepening wave cyclone along a frontal zone, offshore from the Carolinas. The 11Z surface analysis showed a wavy, quasistationary frontal zone attached to a strengthening low located roughly south of EWN and east of SAV. The front extended across northern FL to the western FL Panhandle and southwestern AL. A remnant low was drawn well inland over northern MS, connecting to the Gulf boundary via an occluded front. These features should move little through the period, but with further weakening of the western low, and intensification of the eastern one. Elsewhere, a lee trough and dryline either overlapped, or were drawn within less than 100 nm apart, near the eastern border of WY, eastern CO, the northern/ western TX Panhandle, and east-central/southeastern NM. The dryline should shift somewhat eastward today amid diurnal heating. ...Central/northern High Plains... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across a large part of the Rockies, Intermountain West, and Desert Southwest today. Some of this activity will mature atop deep, well-mixed boundary layers of desert valleys and the High Plains, with non-zero potential for a strong-severe gust. The most concentrated/organized potential for gusts near to above severe limits, as well as marginal hail, still appears to be over portions of the central High Plains into the Black Hills and vicinity, near the lee trough/dryline. East of that, low-level moisture will be relatively maximized in a return-flow airmass of predominantly continental origin, with a north-south belt of 50s to mid 60s F surface dewpoints. Where the western part of that moisture coincides with strong surface heating, and underlies the eastern part of the EML, a north-south corridor of MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range should develop, with 500-1500 J/kg extending into the more deeply mixed regime nearest the lee trough. East of the trough, considerable veering of winds with height is expected, with some low-level hodograph enhancement potentially moving 0-3-km SRH to near 150 J/kg, but lack of stronger midlevel flow will temper overall shear. ...Coastal NC, extreme eastern SC... Many progs deepen the low-level cyclone and transition it to subtropical or tropical character through the end of day 2, while eroding the frontal zone's baroclinicity; however, inconsistency among models is high. The most aggressive among the synoptic and CAM guidance with the speed of the transition and approach to the coast (e.g., 06Z GFS and 00Z ARW high-res window respectively) show favorably large low-level shear, but barely have surface-based effective inflow onshore at the end of the period, with greatest convective coverage and buoyancy still offshore. As such, the associated coastal tornado threat still appears too low and conditional to outlook until day 2 (after 16/12Z). Potential for faster/deeper development and shoreward translation of the low will continue to be monitored for onshore supercell threat the last few hours of day 1. See latest NHC tropical outlook for guidance on overall development potential with this system. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 09/15/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:36:39 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_009Aadv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:36:34 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_009Aadv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:36:11 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep092024_fcst_009.zip
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:35:59 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_009Aadv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:35:40 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep092024_5day_009A.zip
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:35:15 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 15:28:40 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/173515.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…CENTER OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE… As of 11:00 AM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 25.2, -108.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/141734.shtml
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 141438 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Ileana is being affected by increasing southwesterly shear. A large burst of convection that occurred in the early morning hours has moved northeast of the exposed low-level center, while new convection is forming to the north and southeast of the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates and earlier surface data from Topolobampo, Mexico. The initial motion is just east of due north or 010/6 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 6 hours or so, bringing the center near or over the coast of Mexico near Topolobampo and Los Mochis today. After that, Ileana should begin a slow motion toward the northwest over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico, with this motion continuing until the system dissipates. The new track forecast is nudged to the north and east of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Ileana is expected to weaken below tropical-storm strength later today due to a combination of shear and land interaction. However, before that happens, the cyclone should bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern coast of Sinaloa and southern coast of Sonora through this afternoon. The system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low between 12-24 h, with the remnant low dissipating over the central Gulf of California on Monday. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of coastal Sinaloa, Mexico through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 24.9N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.6N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 15/1200Z 26.3N 109.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 26.9N 110.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 27.7N 111.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/141438.shtml
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 141438
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATABAMPO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/141438.shtml
date: 2024-09-14, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 141438 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 108.9W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 108.9W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.6N 109.2W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.3N 109.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 26.9N 110.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.7N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 108.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/141438.shtml
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:39:17 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_005adv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:39:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_005adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:38:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep092024_fcst_005.zip
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:38:33 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP092024_005adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:38:25 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep092024_5day_005.zip
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:37:54 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:37:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/143754.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
960 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Recent satellite imagery shows that Ileana is producing a large convective canopy with clouds top temperatures as cold as -80C. However, data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas shows that the convective banding under the canopy is poorly organized and suggests that the circulation center is still broad and elongated. The various satellite intensity estimates are little changed since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 12 h or so, bringing the center across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. After that, a slower northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast until the cyclone dissipates over the weekend. There are no significant changes to either the track forecast guidance and the forecast track. Ileana currently appears too disorganized to take advantage of the current environment of light to moderate shear, good moisture, and warm water. Thus, little change in strength is expected before landfall in Baja California Sur. When the cyclone reaches the Gulf of California, it is forecast to move into increasing westerly shear and a drier airmass, which should cause weakening despite the very warm sea surface temperatures. Based on this scenario and the intensity guidance, the intensity forecast continues to show weakening, with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 72 hr. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/131435.shtml
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 131435
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 23 3(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
LA PAZ 34 4 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/131435.shtml
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…CENTER OF ILEANA APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR… …TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS… As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.3, -109.3 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/131434.shtml
date: 2024-09-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
674 WTPZ24 KNHC 131434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/131434.shtml
date: 2024-09-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121440- CW
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0669.html
date: 2024-09-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 550 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...As Francine's center continues moving northward over MS and weakens further through midday (per NHC forecast), a slot of wind/moisture/instability fields favorable for supercells and a few tornadoes will shift slowly northward/inland as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL to 35 miles south southeast of Marianna FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 668. Watch number 668 will not be in effect after 550 AM CDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 16030. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0669.html
date: 2024-09-12, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 12 Sep 2024 13:03:07 GMT
date: 2024-09-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PNS TO 40 SW PNS TO 20 NNE MOB TO 50 N MOB. A NEW TORNADO WW WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 12/11Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2058. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-121100- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-121100- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON GMZ630-631-633-634-635-636-650-655-675-750-770-121100- CW
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0668.html
date: 2024-09-11, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2051
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana coastal areas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 111250Z - 111615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The risk for occasional tornadoes may begin to increase
near southeastern Louisiana coastal areas by late morning (10
AM-Noon). Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
tornado watch.
DISCUSSION...The center of Francine has been migrating across and
northeast of the Gunnison Oil Platform vicinity of the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico during the past hour or so, and is still roughly 170
miles from its forecast south central Louisiana coastal landfall
later today. However, the leading edge of a broader convective
precipitation shield preceding Francine is beginning to overspread
coastal areas, accompanied by saturating thermodynamic profiles with
lapse rates trending moist adiabatic in mid-levels.
In the wake of this regime, and with the continued approach of
Francine, model forecast soundings suggest that a subtle increase in
boundary-layer temperatures and dew points may contribute to modest
destabilization by midday along coastal areas from west of
Boothville into the Vermilion Bay vicinity. It appears that this
will coincide with more notable strengthening of low-level wind
fields, which are forecast to contribute to enlarging low-level
hodographs increasingly supportive of convection with embedded
low-level mesocyclones potentially capable of producing tornadoes.
..Kerr/Edwards.. 09/11/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...
LAT...LON 29459176 29519097 29258988 28839012 28759117 29189143
29459176
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2051.html
date: 2024-09-10, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN... ...Synopsis... The upper trough over the western US will quickly intensify Wednesday, as a shortwave perturbation and mid-level jet streak move onshore over the West Coast. As the trough strengthens, mid-level flow over much of the West will increase. A surface low will deepen over the northern Great Basin, while a cold front moves onshore and also strengthens. To the east, TS Francine will approach the Gulf Coast with offshore winds likely over parts of the mid South. Strong surface winds, low humidity, and thunderstorms over parts of the West and central US will support critical fire-weather concerns Wednesday. ...Great Basin... Ahead of the deepening trough, a potent mid-level jet streak will move over parts of the western Great Basin beginning early Wednesday. A deepening surface low in parts of the eastern Basin will drive 20-25 mph winds over much of NV into western UT. Augmented by downslope flow off the Sierra and the approaching cold front, a brief period of winds of 25-30 mph will be possible along with RH below 15%. Widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the Great Basin. Fire-weather concerns should diminish behind the front as cooler and more quiescent conditions are expected behind the front into early Thursday. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the trough approaches, height falls and stronger flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and High Plains. A surface low will deepen first in eastern MT, with a lee trough extending south into the central High Plains. Near the lee trough, strong southerly winds will overlap with areas of low RH and drying fine fuels. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected over parts of the High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Mid South... As Francine approaches the Gulf Coast Wednesday and Wednesday night, offshore pressure gradients will increase over parts of the lower MS Valley and Mid South. While humidity values are not expected to be overly low with the tropical air mass approaching, strong gusts are expected to overlap with areas of relatively dry fuels and little recent rainfall. Brief elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before rain chances increase into early Thursday. ...Northwest Thunder... Ahead of the cold front, increasing mid-level moisture and strong lift from the trough will promote scattered thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Lightning may interact with areas of somewhat drier fuels over parts of the Northwest and northern Rockies before broader wetting rainfall develops. However, these storms will likely have higher precipitation efficiency with a cooler air mass and more plentiful Pacific moisture in place. This lends significant uncertainty on the threat for any lightning ignitions. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...