(date: 2024-09-29 21:08:23)
date: 2024-09-30, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 30 Sep 2024 03:34:59 GMT
date: 2024-09-30, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-09-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 30 01:20:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-09-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 30 01:20:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-09-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2024-09-29, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ACPN50 PHFO 292332
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sun Sep 29 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Vaughan
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-09-29, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292325
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Offshore of
Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to
gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the
next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be
generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a
tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of
this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just
offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving
slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by
next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected
to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48
hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60
percent.
South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another
area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of
Tehuantepec during the next couple of days. Gradual development
of the disturbance will be possible after that, if the system
remains offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is
forecast to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially
move northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of
formation, heavy rain will be possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout this week.
* Formation chance
through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7
days…low…20 percent.
$$
Forecaster D.
Zelinsky
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-09-29, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns may persist through the early parts of the upcoming work week across parts of the Rockies and High Plains, but confidence in robust fire weather concerns abates heading into the later parts of the week. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a gradually building upper ridge over the central CONUS through the next 7 days. This will maintain relatively dry conditions across the central Rockies and Plains where fuels are fairly dry. This upper-air regime will also favor surface low development primarily across the Canadian Prairies with occasional cold frontal intrusions into the Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely emerge as winds increase with each of these dry frontal passages. ...D3/Tuesday - High Plains and southern Wyoming... Breezy pressure gradient winds are anticipated along the central to northern High Plains D3/Tuesday afternoon amid weak troughing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies juxtaposed with a strong surface high over the central Great Plains. Winds generally in the 15-20 mph range appear most likely per recent ensemble solutions, but some locations may see winds up to 20-25 mph. Dry conditions will persist from this weekend into early next week with 15-25% RH expected by peak heating. Consequently, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Wyoming Basin as well within a westerly downslope flow regime; however, stronger mid-level flow is expected to be displaced to the north which limits confidence in a robust/sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 09/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-09-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified, slow-moving, mid/upper-level pattern will persist over much of the CONUS, south of a progressive northern stream near and north of the Canadian border. A norther-stream trough, nearly synoptic in scale, is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from central/southwestern BC to near-coastal WA/OR. This feature should amplify and move eastward across southwestern Canada and the interior Northwest through the period, reaching east- central/south-central SK, central MT and western WY by 12Z tomorrow. Weak, basal height falls and modest midlevel moisture will contribute to the potential for isolated, high-based convection over portions of UT, some of which may extend deep enough to generate lighting and strong gusts, into a deeply mixed boundary layer. Weak moisture/buoyancy (MLCAPE generally less than 100 J/kg) precludes an unconditional severe area. As the northern-stream trough moves away from CA, a formerly cut-off low now moving ashore into south-central CA will become cut off again, and drift southward/southwestward back toward the Pacific by the end of the period. Ridging will weaken greatly over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest ahead of the northern-stream trough, but will persist at its root over the Four Corners region. To its east, a longstanding, stacked, gradually filling cyclone will drift erratically eastward over the TN/KY border area, possibly devolving into an open-wave trough by the end of the period. Associated convection to its east will encounter a relatively warm/ stable layer in mid/upper levels, limiting but not entirely suppressing potential for convection to reach into icing layers suitable for lightning. As such, isolated thunder will be possible from the central Appalachians to the Tidewater. Although warm midlevels will extend southward to most of FL, rich boundary-layer moisture/theta-e south of a quasistationary frontal zone over northern FL will support sporadic thunderstorm potential, mainly from midday through early evening. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 09/29/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-09-29, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA... ...Synopsis... A southeastward-moving cold front will bring elevated to critical fire-weather conditions to the central and northern Great Plains. Gusty winds of 20-25 MPH will coincide with post-frontal boundary-layer relative humidity values of 10-15% across much of South Dakota into Nebraska and northern Kansas. These conditions will overlap with ERC fuels that exceed the 98th annual percentile, and warm/dry conditions expected the preceding day. A Critical highlight area was introduced where the greatest confidence in persistent dry and windy conditions will occur, though additional adjustments and expansions may be needed as frontal timing and speed come into clearer focus. ..Halbert.. 09/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-09-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Sunday. ...Eastern Great Basin... Very isolated thunderstorm development is possible on Sunday afternoon amid scattered high-based, low-topped convection. A low-amplitude mid-level low currently off the southern CA coast should progress into southern CA before stalling Sunday night. Weak forcing for ascent combined with recycled 700-mb moisture within the Four Corners States may be adequate for a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms. The more moist spectrum of guidance suggests buoyancy will remain scant. Even with the low thunder probability, very large surface temperature-dew point spreads will support dry microburst potential and locally strong gusts. ...Upper OH Valley to the Lower Mid-Atlantic... Ahead of the positive-tilt mid/upper trough drifting east across KY/TN, isolated lower-topped thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during Sunday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be relatively warm east-southeast of the trough and cooler to the northeast. Boundary-layer warming will be more limited with northern extent amid abundant cloud coverage and early-day showers. As such, instability will be weak regionwide. A confined belt of stronger mid-level southwesterlies should be over GA into the Carolinas. Within this sub-region, the warm temperatures and poor lapse rates aloft will probably hold thunder probs around 10 percent or less, yielding negligible severe concern. ..Grams.. 09/28/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-09-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. A relatively quiet convective day is forecast across the CONUS today. Afternoon thunderstorms may affect the higher terrain of northern NM and southern CO, as well as along a weak occluded front from lower MI into NY. Weak instability and limited shear will preclude severe storms. Scattered thunderstorms will also be possible this afternoon and tonight across the FL peninsula and along the GA/SC/NC coast. Weak winds aloft will limit the organization of these storms, with no severe activity expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 09/28/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-09-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1045 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Well above normal to record setting high temperatures are expected in western/southern Arizona today, and east-southeast sustained winds of 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph with minimum RH of 5-15% will develop across southeast Arizona and far southwest New Mexico. This will lead to locally elevated conditions across southeast Arizona into far southwest New Mexico late this morning and during the afternoon. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous forecast for more details. ..Nauslar.. 09/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CDT Sat Sep 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Increasing mid-level flow is expected over the Great Basin Saturday between a shortwave trough approaching the CA coast and a ridge centered over the Rockies. Cloud-free skies and heating throughout the day will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer and momentum transfer of this stronger flow to the surface. A few hours of sustained winds reaching 15-20 mph within the Elevated area, along with RH dropping as low as the upper single digits, are expected. In addition, an hour or two of critically sustained winds exceeding 20 mph will be possible within the southern half of the Elevated area, where seasonal ERC values are near the 90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271433 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Fri Sep 27 2024 John's satellite depiction has banding mainly concentrated on the southern semicircle. The center of the system is very near or just touching the coast of southwestern Mexico. There continues to be burst of convection within the curved bands to the south of the center, and GLM data depicts plenty of lightning within the bands. The various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates range from 35 to 55 kt. Given the satellite presentation will lean to the higher side of these estimates, with an initial intensity for this advisory at 50 kt. The center of John is right along the coast, and gradual weakening should continue as the storm moves inland or moves along the coastline. Later today, the high mountainous terrain will disrupt the low-level circulation and a faster rate of weakening should ensue. Beyond the next 24 h, the forecast is highly dependent if the center of John survives the interaction with land, and could dissipate sooner than what is currently forecast. If the surface center remains intact and doesn't dissipate, the remnants should re-emerge over the water in a few days, although models do not show regeneration and keep the system as a remnant low. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the HCCA and simple consensus aids. John's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/3 kt, and a turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is forecast, provided John survives its interaction with mountainous terrain. The track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies to the right of the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero and Michoacán. 2. John is forecast to continue bringing tropical storm conditions across portions of the Tropical Storm Warnings area through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 18.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/271433.shtml
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
545
FOPZ15 KNHC 271432
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 8( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MANZANILLO 34 21 16(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
MANZANILLO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP5+shtml/271432.shtml
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…JOHN ABUTTING THE COAST… …CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO… As of 9:00 AM CST Fri Sep 27 the center of John was located near 18.1, -103.0 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/271432.shtml
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 271432 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.0W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 25SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 140SE 60SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 330SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 103.0W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 102.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 103.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 10NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.4N 105.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.9N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.4N 108.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 103.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/271432.shtml
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Fri, 27 Sep 2024 14:32:14 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP10/atcf-ep102024.xml
date: 2024-09-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2124
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024
Areas affected...Southern to central/eastern NC and southern VA
Concerning...Tornado Watch 688...
Valid 271348Z - 271545Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 688 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat is expected to peak into early afternoon
across southern, eastern, and central North Carolina, into a part of
southern Virginia. This threat will abruptly end in the wake of
ongoing band passage associated with Tropical Storm Helene.
DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing within a roughly 300-km
long convective band, with the inland portion approaching the
Raleigh-Durham Metro Area and the trailing portion to along the
NC/SC border area. Individual cells are largely transient and
progressing north at 45-55 kts. The overall band will rapidly sweep
across much of central and eastern North Carolina into midday before
entering southern VA. Low-level hodographs are currently maximized,
with 0-1 km SRH around 500-600 m2/s2 per LTX/RAX VWP data. These are
expected to shrink during the afternoon, suggesting the tornado
threat will wane later today. Boundary-layer heating will remain
limited by pervasive cloud coverage downstream, but even minor
insolation amid mid 70s surface dew points should provide enough
boost to increase daytime tornado potential. In the wake of the
band, substantial mid-level warming/drying will curtail additional
development and the threat will be confined along/ahead of the
ongoing band.
..Grams.. 09/27/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...
LAT...LON 35907983 36187990 36707984 37377940 37507891 37387841
37027759 35977679 35177666 34627648 33777797 33827883
35217924 35907983
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2124.html
date: 2024-09-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Southern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 805 AM until 600 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Tornado threat east of the center of Helene will shift northward across the watch area through the day. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles either side of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Florence SC to 20 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 687. Watch number 687 will not be in effect after 805 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 6045. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0688.html
date: 2024-09-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE CHS TO 15 WNW FAY TO 20 NNW GSO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2124. ..GRAMS..09/27/24 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...ILM...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 688 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-013-015-017-019-029-031-033-037-041-047-049-051-053-055- 061-063-065-069-073-077-079-081-083-085-091-095-101-103-105-107- 117-127-129-131-133-135-137-139-141-143-145-147-155-157-163-169- 177-181-183-185-187-191-195-271540- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BEAUFORT BERTIE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CAMDEN CARTERET CASWELL CHATHAM CHOWAN COLUMBUS CRAVEN CUMBERLAND CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE GREENE GUILFORD HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HYDE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN NASH NEW HANOVER NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PENDER PERQUIMANS PERSON PITT ROBESON ROCKINGHAM
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0688.html
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 11:41:08 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep102024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 11:41:08 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep102024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 11:40:25 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:35:06 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/114025.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-27, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Fri, 27 Sep 2024 09:23:27 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-09-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2111
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0807 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
Areas affected...Southern and Central Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Tornado Watch 683...
Valid 261307Z - 261500Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 683 continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across the Florida
Peninsula this morning, persisting into the early afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Hurricane Helene is currently located in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Several rainbands, with embedded thunderstorms, are
located across the eastern Gulf of Mexico extending across the
Florida Peninsula. The latest RAP has a pocket of moderate
instability across the southern and central Florida Peninsula, with
MLCAPE estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. This is consistent
with the Miami, Florida 12Z sounding, which also has 0-6 km shear in
the 30 to 35 knot range, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
300 m2/s2. This environment will continue to be favorable for
tornadoes with semi-discrete supercells embedded in the outer
rainbands of Hurricane Helene. The tornado threat should continue
this morning and into the early afternoon as Hurricane Helene moves
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
..Broyles.. 09/26/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 27828021 28368038 28628057 28808105 28838160 28648211
28138236 27308239 26288209 25578157 25188105 25128074
25248039 25598009 26467994 27828021
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2111.html
date: 2024-09-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 683 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 640 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Peninsula Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 640 AM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...In association with a strengthening Hurricane Helene, conditions will become increasingly favorable for tornadoes today across portions of the Florida Peninsula, in the presence of a very moist air mass and strengthening low-level shear. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Ocala FL to 55 miles west southwest of Miami FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16050. ...Guyer
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0683.html
date: 2024-09-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 683 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..09/26/24 ATTN...WFO...MLB...MFL...TBW...JAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 683 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC009-011-015-017-021-027-043-049-051-053-055-057-061-069-071- 075-081-083-085-086-087-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-111-115-117- 119-127-261340- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BREVARD BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS COLLIER DESOTO GLADES HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE LEVY MANATEE MARION MARTIN MIAMI-DADE MONROE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE OSCEOLA PALM BEACH PASCO PINELLAS POLK ST. LUCIE SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER VOLUSIA AMZ550-552-555-610-630-650-651-GMZ656-657-830-836-850-853-856- 261340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0683.html
date: 2024-09-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0684 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0684.html
date: 2024-09-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 684 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Central and Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and evening from 830 AM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...A long-duration and gradually increasing tornado threat will exist in association with the increasingly strong low-level winds on the northeast periphery of Hurricane Helene. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south of Savannah GA to 30 miles north of Columbia SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 683... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16025. ...Guyer
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0684.html
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:45:45 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_014Aadv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:45:38 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_014Aadv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:45:08 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_fcst_014.zip
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:45:00 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_014Aadv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:44:53 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_5day_014A.zip
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 11:44:29 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Thu, 26 Sep 2024 09:35:24 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/114429.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN… …CATASTROPHIC LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO… As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Sep 26 the center of John was located near 17.3, -102.6 with movement WNW at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 979 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/261144.shtml
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260919 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Thu Sep 26 2024 Recent TROPICS/TMS and SSMIS microwave passes indicated an improved inner core with a 70 percent closed small eye feature. The UW-CIMSS objective intensity guidance ranges from 56 to 65 kt, and the latest SATCON analysis indicated an intensity of 61 kt. The subjective satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 and 55 kt, respectively. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt using a blend of these data. The ocean sea surface temperatures are very warm, and the shear is low, and there is ample moisture in the low to mid-portions of the atmosphere for John to quickly strengthen before the cyclone moves over the coast on Friday. The UW-CIMSS AI RI index and the SHIPS statistical-dynamical RI model both continue to show increasing chances of John quickly strengthening during the next 24 hrs and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit and shows a peak of 85 kt before landfall. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/3 kt and is being steered by a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over Northern Mexico. John should continue in this general motion through today, followed by a gradual turn to the northwest by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to approach and move along the coast of southwestern Mexico or just inland on Friday. The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and follows a compromise of the skilled HCCA consensus model and the ECMWF global model, which has been performing the best with this system. The wind radii have been adjusted for this advisory, and was based on a 0426 UTC METOP-C scatterometer overpass. It cannot be emphasized enough that catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected to continue through the end of the week for portions of the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan. 2. John is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before landfall, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect along the coastline of southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin during the next few hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in effect for portions of the area and has been extended westward to Manzanillo. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.1N 102.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/260919.shtml
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 260834
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN BLAS 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 105W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
MANZANILLO 34 1 20(21) 21(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
MANZANILLO 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 67 22(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91)
L CARDENAS 50 3 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
L CARDENAS 64 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 53 19(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
P MALDONADO 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP5+shtml/260834.shtml
date: 2024-09-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260833 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.5W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 330SE 240SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 102.5W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.2N 102.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.8N 103.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.8N 103.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.7N 104.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.2N 106.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 102.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/260833.shtml
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:52:40 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_008Aadv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:52:38 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_008Aadv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:52:14 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_fcst_008.zip
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:52:03 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_008Aadv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:51:56 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_5day_008A.zip
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 11:51:31 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 24 Sep 2024 09:29:09 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/115131.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ35 KNHC 241146 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 100.3W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has adjusted the Tropical Storm Warning westward from Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 100.3 West. John is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated, and John is expected to become a tropical depression later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are ongoing within portions of the tropical storm warning area and should continue for the next few hours. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next day or so, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/241146.shtml
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
523 WTPZ45 KNHC 240852 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Tue Sep 24 2024 John moved inland at around 0315 UTC as a 105 kt Category 3 Hurricane. Since that time, the the storm has apparently turned more leftward and remains just inland, skirting the southern coast of Mexico. While surface observations have been sparse, my best guess is that the storm recently passed just to the north of Acapulco, where the airport earlier reported tropical-storm-force wind gusts and west winds as the pressure dropped to 998 mb. Assuming the small core has continued to quickly weaken, John is being downgraded to a tropical storm, and the initial intensity is 60 kt this advisory. Following fixes from earlier microwave and more recent geostationary satellite imagery, John now appears to be moving northwestward at 310/7 kt. The track forecast, which has been problematic with John from the start, is just as difficult now. John has continued to deviate westward of the previous forecast track and is now moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. To make matters worse, a decent chunk of the of the global models guidance (ECMWF, UKMET) and hurricane regional models (HWRF, HMON) suggest the circulation could continue turning westward and attempt to re-emerge over the Eastern Pacific. Even the GFS and CMC solutions, which appear to dissipate the surface circulation inland over Mexico, show the mid-level circulation persisting and drifting back offshore, leading to the development of a new low-level circulation. Because it is becoming distinctly possible that John does not move far enough inland to dissipate entirely, and the aforementioned continued leftward trends, the latest NHC track forecast is altered quite a bit form the prior forecast, and now shows the possibility that John, albeit as a tropical depression, moving back offshore as it becomes tangled in the larger monsoonal flow. By 72 h, most of the track guidance shows the system moving back inland. The updated track forecast is roughly in between the HCCA and ECMWF trackers, and is of very low confidence given John's track history. It also remains possible the system could dissipate later today if it moves further inland. Intensity-wise, John should continue to rapidly weaken as long as it remains onshore, and the NHC intensity forecast shows the tropical cyclone weakening to a tropical depression later today. However, the new NHC forecast now maintains the system as a depression and does not show dissipation beyond 24 h given the latest track forecast taking the system along the coast of Mexico and not far enough inland to completely dissipate. Some of the models (notably the ECMWF) attempt to also re-intensify John as it gets far enough back offshore, but given the large changes made on this forecast cycle, the NHC intensity will not show that solution quite yet. Even if John remains inland, larger-scale moist monsoonal southeasterly flow will persist along the southern coast of Mexico, likely contributing to catastrophic rainfall both along the coast and inland over the up-slope portion of the mountainous terrain. This is a very dangerous life-threatening flooding scenario. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John could still producing tropical storm conditions for the next few hours in the tropical storm warning area. 2. Slow-moving John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast and along the up-slope portion of areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 17.3N 100.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/240852.shtml
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 240850
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ACAPULCO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ACAPULCO 50 66 X(66) X(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP5+shtml/240850.shtml
date: 2024-09-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240849 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 100.0W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.4N 100.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 101.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.7N 100.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 100.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 100.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.1N 101.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 100.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/240849.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:51:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_006adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:51:35 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_006adv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:51:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_fcst_006.zip
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:50:50 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_006adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:50:41 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_5day_006.zip
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 20:50:07 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/205007.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232049 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John continues to rapidly strengthen. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 65 to 77 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates are a little higher, in the 79 to 90 kt range. On infrared satellite imagery, the area of cold cloud tops continues to grow, and the inner core is becoming more symmetric. The latest visible images have shown hints of a small eye, that has become a little more apparent in the last few hours. Based on the above data and recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt, making John a category 2 hurricane. Environmental parameters continue to be ripe for additional rapid intensification, with very warm ocean temperatures, weak vertical wind shear and a moist atmosphere. The only potential limiting factor could be how John might interact with the mountainous topography of Mexico as the hurricane approaches the coastline. The DSHIPS and LGEM statistical intensity models remain at the higher end of the guidance envelope and show John becoming a major hurricane as it approaches the coast. The EC SHIPS Rapid Intensity Index is depicting a high likelihood of continued rapid intensification over next 12 hours. The latest NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance and continues to show John strengthening to a 105-kt hurricane. It is possible that John could peak even higher than shown below between the 12 h forecast point and when it reaches the coast. John continues to move due northward, now at 5 kt. The current motion and the latest model guidance has again necessitated a westward track shift to the NHC forecast. Given the updated track forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge are expected within portions of the hurricane warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 98.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/232049.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 232048
PWSEP5
HURRICANE JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS
...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ACAPULCO 34 2 11(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ACAPULCO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
P MALDONADO 34 88 5(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93)
P MALDONADO 50 49 18(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
P MALDONADO 64 16 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
P ANGEL 34 1 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP5+shtml/232048.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 232047 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.5W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 98.5W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 98.4W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.0N 98.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 98.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 80SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.7N 98.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 98.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/232047.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. Latest surface observations and upper-air analyses show the gradual organization of a surface low over northern AR/southern MO. The frontal boundary draped from southeast MO into the upper OH River Valley has begun to stall and is expected to gradually advance north through the evening hours. VWP observations along the frontal zone currently show relatively straight low-level hodographs, but helicity should slowly improve through the 20-03 UTC period as isentropic ascent along the front increases. As a result, the convective environment should become more favorable for organized convection - particularly during the 22-03 UTC period across far southeast MO into far southern IL and western KY. Latest high-res guidance suggests that storms developing along an approaching cold front across north-central AR will intensify as they migrate east towards this zone and should pose the primary severe threat this evening. However, loosely-organized thunderstorms recently developing within the mid-MS River Valley cast some uncertainty onto this scenario due to the potential for overturning portions of the downstream warm sector. This early convection may see improving organization in the coming hours as mid-level flow slowly improves late this afternoon, but limit storm longevity over the past hour cast some uncertainty onto the propensity for severe storms. Regardless, this stalled/warm frontal boundary will still present the best corridor for a more focused severe event through the evening hours, including the potential for a tornado or two. As such, the 2% risk probabilities have been expanded east into western KY. Consideration was given for 15% wind probabilities through this corridor, but confidence in storm mode and coverage remains too limited given the aforementioned concerns. Farther east across southern KY and TN, the forecast remains on track. See MCD #2097 for details regarding recent convective trends. ..Moore.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-09-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE… …DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO… As of 3:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 15.5, -98.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/232048.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…JOHN QUICKLY STRENGTHENING AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO… …HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO… As of 6:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.5, -98.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/231154.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ65 KNHC 231342 TCUEP5 Tropical Storm John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Recent satellite imagery indicates that John continues to become better organized, and that it is likely to become a hurricane later today. Continued strengthening appears likely while John approaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area. This will result in changes to the initial and forecast intensity that will be reflected in the next forecast advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center at 900 AM CST (1500 UTC). $$ Forecaster Brown
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUEP5+shtml/231342.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:55:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_003Aadv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:55:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_003Aadv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:55:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_fcst_003.zip
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:55:18 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_003Aadv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:55:09 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_5day_003A.zip
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 11:54:45 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 09:22:45 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/115445.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230853 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite images indicate that John continues to become better organized, with very deep convection near the center and some tight curved band features. Earlier microwave imagery also showed some inner core development, with perhaps a partial eyewall trying to form. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 06z were 35 kt from both TAFB/SAB, though the objective values were between 40-50 kt. The intensity is set to 40 kt as a blend of these data. The storm is moving slowly to the north-northeast, caught in the large-scale southwesterly flow associated with the monsoon trough near Central America. There has been a big change in most of the track guidance since yesterday, with a fair number of the models now showing a steadier northeastward motion with less eastward steering from the incipient tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Consequently, the models have shifted leftward and faster. The official forecast is also trended in that direction, but could still be too far to the east. John is forecast to be over very warm waters with light shear while it approaches the coast of Mexico over the next day or so. While none of the regional hurricane models make John a hurricane before landfall, the rapid intensification indices are indicating at least a 50 percent chance that this system strengthens 30 kt in the next 24 hours, which would indicate hurricane-strength. Given the uncertainties involved, a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico on this advisory, and interests there should closely monitor for future forecast updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Storm John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin late today. 3. John could strengthen more than forecast depending on how long it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as Hurricane Warnings could be required for a portion of the coastline later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 14.4N 98.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/230853.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 230852
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P MALDONADO 34 X 6( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
P ANGEL 34 X 15(15) 20(35) 9(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
P ANGEL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
HUATULCO 34 X 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP5+shtml/230852.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
508 WTPZ25 KNHC 230851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 98.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 98.5W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.8N 98.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 97.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.8N 97.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 70SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 16.0N 97.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 98.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/230851.shtml
date: 2024-09-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:33:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_001Aadv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:33:34 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_001Aadv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:33:19 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_fcst_001.zip
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:33:09 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP102024_001Aadv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:32:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep102024_5day_001A.zip
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…DEPRESSION NEARLY STATIONARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO… As of 6:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.8, -98.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP5+shtml/222332.shtml
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 23:32:33 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 21:23:36 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep5+shtml/233233.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222057 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Convection has gradually become better organized today in association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models, and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances. The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is quite uncertain given the track challenges described above. Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP5+shtml/222057.shtml
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ15 KNHC 222050
PWSEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024
2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) 9(36) 1(37) X(37)
P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13)
15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 28(44) 1(45) X(45)
15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14)
15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP5+shtml/222050.shtml
date: 2024-09-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222049 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 98.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP5+shtml/222049.shtml