(date: 2024-10-06 11:09:14)
date: 2024-10-06, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 06 Oct 2024 18:04:52 GMT
date: 2024-10-06, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 061751
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
800 AM HST Sun Oct 6 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
TS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-10-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 6 17:50:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-10-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 6 17:50:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-10-06, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-10-06, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061732
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Offshore of
Southwestern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased today in association
with a broad area of low pressure
located about 150 miles south of
Manzanillo, Mexico. Gradual
development of this system is possible,
and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple
of days while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward. Interests along
the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of
this system. Regardless of
development, the disturbance could
bring areas of heavy rain to
portions of southwestern Mexico
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48
hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7
days…high…70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-10-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-10-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-10-06, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-10-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-10-04, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ..Squitieri.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:23:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
248
FOPZ11 KNHC 031435
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP1+shtml/031435.shtml
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
909 WTPZ41 KNHC 031435 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized, area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the northern portion of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial intensity for this advisory. The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty, and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5. The track forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that. It is possible that some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows the center position becomes available. While the environment does not favor significant strengthening before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast shows the system lasting through 36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of Mexico. Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/031435.shtml
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:41:36 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP112024_008adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:41:32 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP112024_008adv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:41:23 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep112024_fcst_008.zip
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:41:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep112024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:41:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep112024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:40:56 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP112024_008adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:40:48 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep112024_5day_008.zip
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:40:13 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:34:50 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/144013.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO… …CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO… As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.2, -95.6 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/031435.shtml
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 031435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP1+shtml/031435.shtml
date: 2024-10-03, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:35:11 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP11/atcf-ep112024.xml
date: 2024-10-02, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 First light visible imagery and a GMI microwave overpass during the night show that the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E is again a little to the southwest of the previous track. While the system is part of a large area of convection, the convection is generally poorly organized, and there has been little change in the various satellite intensity estimates since the last advisory. Based on this, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The track forecast is of low confidence. Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that the depression is currently absorbing or merging with the vorticity of the EP97 disturbance, and this has resulted in the system center moving slowly southwestward during the past 6-12 h. The models have diverse solutions for the subsequent track, with the GFS and Canadian taking the cyclone northward into eastern Mexico, while the UKMET forecasts a west-northwestward motion offshore parallel to the coast and the ECMWF forecasting the system to dissipate over water. The new forecast track is a compromise between the the GFS and UKMET forecast and shows the center making landfall between 36-48 h in the current Tropical Storm Warning area. This forecast has some significant changes in direction and speed from the previous forecast, and additional adjustments may be necessary later today and tonight. Regardless of exactly where the cyclone tracks, it is expected to be in an environment of moderate to strong easterly shear through at least 48 h. This should limit the intensification, and the forecast peak intensity of 40 kt remains at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The main impact from this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding and mudslides over portions of southern Mexico and western Guatemala. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern or southeastern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 14.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
date: 2024-10-02, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION NOW MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO… As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.9, -95.8 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/021435.shtml
date: 2024-10-02, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ21 KNHC 021435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 95.8W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.8N 96.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.9N 96.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 97.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.0N 97.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.4N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 95.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP1+shtml/021435.shtml
date: 2024-10-02, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
P ANGEL 34 5 13(18) 5(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25)
P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HUATULCO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 95W 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NNNN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
date: 2024-10-02, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 11:33:01 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 09:28:33 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/113301.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-02, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Scattered thunderstorms persist this evening within the moist air mass over the FL Peninsula, where wind fields aloft are light. Storm coverage should gradually decrease as the air mass is overturned and boundary layer cools. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out in association with the upper trough moving across eastern Ontario and affecting the lower Great Lakes. Lapse rates and instability remain weak in this region. Easterly winds aloft will also carry isolated thunderstorms over far southern AZ westward along the Mexican border this evening, where they may persist in association with Gulf of CA moisture. Any marginally severe threat thus appears most likely across the international border. ..Jewell.. 10/02/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:37:10 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP112024_001Aadv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:37:09 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP112024_001Aadv_WW.kmz
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:36:53 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep112024_fcst_001.zip
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:36:45 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP112024_001Aadv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:36:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep112024_5day_001A.zip
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 23:36:09 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 01 Oct 2024 21:28:59 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep1+shtml/233609.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO… As of 6:00 PM CST Tue Oct 1 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.3, -94.6 with movement N at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP1+shtml/012334.shtml
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012055 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 300 PM CST Tue Oct 01 2024 The small area of low pressure we have been monitoring for the past couple of days has become well-defined on satellite imagery this afternoon and was confirmed with recent scatterometer data. There has been enough organized deep convection today to consider this a tropical depression, as suggested by the Data-T estimate from TAFB, and the initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the max believable scatterometer values. The initial motion is an uncertain 360/4 kt. The depression has been moving northward on the eastern end of the monsoon trough, and this general track is anticipated through landfall with little change seen in the steering flow for the next day or two. However, the model guidance is all over the place, owing to differences in the initial depth of the tropical depression and strength of the circulation associated with the monsoon trough and Invest 97E. The ECMWF model seems to have the best representation of the initial vortex, and the track forecast heavily leans on that model solution, especially given its recent successes with cyclones in that area. However, there is considerable spread in the guidance, and the tropical storm warning is larger than typical based on that uncertainty. Northeasterly shear is expected to continue to affect the depression through landfall, though very warm SSTs and a moist mid-level environment should promote some strengthening. These conditions would seem to favor intensification through landfall, and the first forecast shows a mid-range tropical storm, above most of the model guidance. At this point, extreme rainfall and flash flooding seem to be the biggest threats from this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight or on Wednesday. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the coastline of southern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially from western Guatemala into portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, and Tabasco. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/012055.shtml
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ11 KNHC 012053
PWSEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ANGEL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 95W 34 17 9(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
SALINA CRUZ 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP1+shtml/012053.shtml
date: 2024-10-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
576 WTPZ21 KNHC 012052 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 94.6W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 94.6W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.5N 94.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 15.9N 94.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.5N 94.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 94.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 94.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP1+shtml/012052.shtml
date: 2024-10-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to persist into the weekend across the north/northwestern CONUS with critical fire weather conditions possible. Latest forecast guidance continues to show the gradual building of an anomalously strong upper ridge over the southern/southwestern CONUS through early next week. This will maintain hot/dry conditions across much of the central and western CONUS that should continue to promote drying fuels. Additionally, this will maintain the strongest mid-level flow largely along the U.S./Canadian border. Fire weather concerns will be possible across the northern two-thirds of the country as shortwave troughs embedded within the mean flow (and their associated surface lows/cold fronts) propagate east along the international border. The most prominent of these will likely impact the Pacific Northwest into the northern Plains D4/Friday into D5/Saturday. ...D3/Friday - Northern Great Basin and southern WY... Afternoon water-vapor imagery depicts an upper disturbance along and south of the Aleutian Islands. Long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement that this feature will undergo some amplification as it approaches the Pacific Northwest by Friday afternoon. The combination of surface pressure falls ahead of the upper wave and increasing westerly flow over the southern Cascades and northern Sierra Nevada will promote dry and windy conditions across northern NV into adjacent areas of CA, OR, and ID. Similarly, strengthening westerly winds across the northern Rockies will induce a dry/windy downslope regime through the WY basin. Ensemble guidance continues to show some spread regarding the exact timing of the upper wave, which will influence the overlap of the strongest mid-level winds with peak heating and precludes higher risk probabilities at this time. ...D5/Saturday - Southern WY into the central/northern Plains... A dry cold front is forecast to push southeast from the northern High Plains into the central Plains through D5/Saturday in tandem with the passage of the upper-level trough. A regime similar to yesterday (Monday) appears likely with dry conditions and only modest temperature reductions behind the front accompanied by very strong (20-30 mph) winds. With no appreciable rainfall forecast for the Plains through the weekend, fuels should remain receptive and will support the fire weather concern. Confidence in reaching critical-criteria RH reductions is highest across southern WY into adjacent parts of NE/CO, but the coverage of sub-20% RH across much of the Plains is somewhat uncertain at this range. Regardless, the overall synoptic pattern appears favorable for at least a wind-driven fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 10/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-10-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Oct 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Recent model guidance has come into better agreement with regard to the upper-level pattern this weekend into early next week. As zonal flow begins to break down this Friday, an upper-level trough will dig southeastward and strengthen. Though conditional and uncertain, some severe threat could develop in association with this trough. After this trough exits the East Coast, ridging aloft and at the surface is expected to develop in its wake. On Saturday, a cold front will move through the Upper Midwest. Some moisture return is possible on the western flank of the surface ridge, but the quality of this moisture is highly uncertain. Wind fields would support organized storms in parts of the upper Mississippi Valley, but predictability remains quite low. For Sunday, the upper-level trough will continue southeastward with some intensification expected, especially towards Monday morning. A similar setup to Saturday will occur in parts of the upper Ohio Valley region. The strongest shear will likely be post-frontal, but some stronger storms could develop along the front during the afternoon. Moisture return ahead of the boundary remains a question and will be the key to severe potential. A strong mid-level jet will dig into the Mid-Atlantic Monday morning. Given the misaligned timing of the trough with diurnal heating, it is not clear that sufficient buoyancy will be present for an organized severe threat.