(date: 2024-10-13 09:42:43)
date: 2024-10-13, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...17Z Update... A minor areal extension was made to the Elevated area across OK to include portions of southern KS. Observational trends in relative humidity, along with the latest hires guidance, suggest a drop to near or just below 20 percent will occur by early this afternoon within this added region. Northerly wind speeds behind a cold front are also expected to increase to around 15 to 20 mph later today. In addition, fuels are highly receptive to fire spread across the Plains. Please see the previous discussion for the Elevated area across AZ and UT, where the forecast has not been adjusted. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly surface winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy post-frontal flow in Oklahoma will also support Elevated fire-weather concerns. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... The forecast has trended a little less dry, with relative humidity values between 15-20% and 15-20 MPH winds. The strongest winds (approaching 20 MPH sustained) will be confined to northwest Arizona, where ERC values are on the lower end at the 80th annual percentile and relative humidity is closer to 20%. Further north in Utah, fuels vary between the 90th and 95th annual percentiles and are colocated with <15% relative humidity values, but confidence in winds exceeding sustained 15 MPH is lower. Given the overall spread of moisture, wind speeds, and fuel percentiles over the area, Elevated highlights have been maintained with no introduction of Critical areas. ...Oklahoma... Forecast guidance has come into better agreement for 15-20% relative humidity and 15 MPH winds during the afternoon as a cold front moves southward across Oklahoma. Fuels guidance shows ERC values at or exceeding the 98th annual percentile, supporting both wildfire ignition and spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 13 16:30:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 13 16:30:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/13/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-10-13, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 13 Oct 2024 14:55:00 GMT
date: 2024-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, across parts of the central/southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail should be the main threats. ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Ongoing elevated thunderstorms across northeast OH and western PA should continue eastward this morning in tandem with an enhanced west-southwesterly low-level jet. This activity is expected to outpace low-level moisture return and related destabilization today, and eventually weaken. But in the short term, small hail remains possible. Meanwhile, a vigorous shortwave trough over the Upper Midwest will dig southeastward through the base of a large-scale mid/upper trough, and yield amplification of this trough southward across the Great Lakes through Monday morning. Ascent preceding this shortwave trough will overspread parts of the central/southern Appalachians into the TN Valley, mainly during the evening and overnight. A leading and weaker mid-level perturbation will encourage the primary surface low to develop eastward across PA this afternoon through early evening. A surface cold front will extend southwest of this low into the TN Valley. Convective development along the front appears likely to be delayed until early evening, as the strengthening large-scale ascent aids in increasing low-level convergence along the front amid generally veered flow within the warm sector. Surface dew points should largely range from the mid 50s in WV to a narrow corridor of low 60s in TN, yielding a plume of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg amid initially steep mid-level lapse rates. Recent guidance still differs regarding storm coverage along/ahead of the cold front this evening, from almost none to scattered. This is perhaps in response to the ascent with the shortwave trough strengthening after peak diurnal heating. The strongest 700 mb westerlies (around 40-55 kt) should be confined to mainly northeast of the TN Valley. Forecast hodographs above this level appear small, owing to weakening winds with height as fast mid/upper flow lags to the north-northwest. This suggests supercell structures may struggle to develop/be sustained. But the strong 700 mb flow could support localized damaging winds in any multicell clusters that can form. Farther southwest, somewhat greater buoyancy could foster small to marginally severe hail as well. The overall severe threat appears likely to remain rather isolated, and no changes have been made to the Marginal Risk with this update. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/13/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-10-13, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ACPN50 PHFO 131237
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Sun Oct 13 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Blood
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-10-13, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 13 Oct 2024 14:55:00 GMT
date: 2024-10-13, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-10-13, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131137
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
500 AM PDT Sun Oct 13 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Konarik/Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-10-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms still appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough, with embedded perturbations, will persist across the eastern CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low continues to meander over the Four Corners region. Widespread surface high pressure behind a cold front will overspread the MS Valley toward the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard, resulting in enough static stability to limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The cold front should be drifting southward across the FL Peninsula, with thunderstorms possible across southern portions of the state by afternoon. A couple of lightning flashes are also possible over portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie (and immediate surrounding landmass), as cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough overspread relatively warm waters. Finally, cooler mid-level temperatures and associated lapse rates accompanying the cut-off low may support a couple of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Four Corners given the assistance of orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-10-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains accurate and no changes are needed. Please see the discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 10/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin on Sunday, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy pre-frontal flow in Texas and post-frontal flow in Oklahoma may result in Elevated fire-weather conditions as well. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are expected as daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing occurs during the afternoon, with some areas seeing locally critical conditions where topography supports enhanced surface winds. These conditions will overspread fuels modestly to very receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC values between the 80th and 95th annual percentiles. ...Central Texas... Portions of central Texas may see Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday, where warm/dry southwesterly flow ahead of a southward-moving cold front will support at least 15 MPH winds with boundary-layer relative humidity values between 10% and 20%. However, these conditions don't currently overlap with especially receptive fuels, and there is still uncertainty in the surface wind speeds reaching sustained Elevated criteria. ...Oklahoma... Much of Oklahoma could also experience some Elevated fire-weather conditions in a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass. However, ensemble guidance indicates spread/uncertainty in both boundary-layer relative humidity and wind speeds supporting wildfire spread, and recent wetting rainfall has lessened fuel receptiveness in portions of Central Oklahoma. Still, much of the fuels surrounding the areas recently rained on have ERC values exceeding the 95th annual percentile. If future forecast guidance comes into better agreement about the meteorological conditions, Elevated highlights may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-10-12, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in a corridor across West Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia, late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and evening. Small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the Interior West and a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will translate across the eastern OH Valley and Mid Atlantic states during the day, promoting deep-layer ascent amid just enough moisture return to support thunderstorm development (a couple of which may be strong). Meanwhile, steep lapse rates associated with the 500 mb low over the Four Corners, in conjunction with adequate surface heating and orographic lift, may support isolated thunderstorm development. Daytime heating of a moist airmass may also encourage the development of a few thunderstorms over the southern FL Peninsula. ...Central Appalachians... As the surface low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic, a cold front will sag southeastward across the eastern OH Valley into the central Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing lift for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints are expected to only reach the mid 50s F. However, 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates may support over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, that combined with rapidly strengthening vertical wind profiles and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear, may support organized multicells immediately ahead of the cold front. A couple of damaging gusts or instances of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html