(date: 2024-10-20 08:34:07)
date: 2024-10-20, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 20 Oct 2024 15:28:52 GMT
date: 2024-10-20, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-10-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 20 14:08:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-10-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 20 14:08:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-10-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-10-20, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 201153
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
200 AM HST Sun Oct 20 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Shigesato
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-10-20, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201150
TWOEP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM
PDT Sun Oct 20 2024
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140
degrees west longitude:
South of Southwestern Mexico:
After Nadine dissipates over southern Mexico, its remnants are
expected to move into the eastern Pacific by late today. The
combination of the remnants of Nadine and influences from a Gulf of
Tehuantepec gap wind event are forecast to result in the formation
of a new low pressure system off the coast of southern Mexico in a
day or so. Additional development is expected after that time, and
a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to
middle
part of this week while the system moves westward at about
15 mph
away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance
through 48 hours…medium…60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7
days…high…90 percent.
$$
Forecaster Landsea
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-10-20, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-10-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2024-10-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-10-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with no changes. Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the Great Basin and Rockies ahead of a deep upper trough and cold front this afternoon through tonight. An isolated stronger storm may be capable of strong outflow wind gusts, but organized severe storms are not expected. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Great Basin... A weak upper trough and pockets of residual mid-level moisture will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Great Basin today. Model guidance suggests a weak mid-level speed max moving across the Four Corners region into western CO. Steep low and mid level lapse rates could aid in locally gusty winds in the strongest cells. No organized severe storms are expected. Other thunderstorms will occur beneath an upper trough affecting the Pacific Northwest states. Finally, a few thunderstorms are possible in a warm/moist air mass present across south TX and south FL. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html