(date: 2024-10-16 07:22:18)
date: 2024-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 16 13:26:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 16 13:26:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified, yet still quite progressive pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A leading synoptic trough was initially positioned from a low near Anticosti Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestward across New England, the near-coastal Mid-Atlantic region, and the southern Appalachians, to parts of AR and eastern OK. The southern Appalachian part of the trough is expected to consolidate into a closed cyclone as it moves eastward across the Carolinas and VA, with a well-defined 500-mb low expected over the Outer Banks vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. However, associated surface frontal-wave cyclogenesis and related elevated thunder potential in the wrapping conveyor both should remain offshore. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from central FL across the north-central Gulf to near CRP and across south-central TX -- will support isolated thunderstorm potential today over parts of south FL and deep south TX before moving south of both areas. Meanwhile, a synoptic-scale trough -- with several embedded small shortwaves/vorticity lobes -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the AK Panhandle south-southeastward, just offshore of and parallel to the CONUS Pacific Coast. As these features move ashore today, preceded by several other vorticity lobes, height falls and colder air aloft will spread inland, steepening midlevel lapse rates atop marginal low/middle-level moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and a broad area of the Intermountain West/ Great Basin, with low-level warm advection and diabatic heating also aiding instability in the interior swath. Isolated thunderstorms should result. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-10-16, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 16 Oct 2024 11:49:13 GMT
date: 2024-10-16, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-10-16, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 161130
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
200 AM HST Wed Oct 16 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Bohlin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-10-16, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 16 Oct 2024 11:49:13 GMT
date: 2024-10-16, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161114
TWOEP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM
PDT Wed Oct 16 2024
For the eastern North Pacific…east of 140
degrees west longitude:
Tropical cyclone formation is not
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Cangialosi
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A large-scale trough will amplify over the western CONUS on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday, before evolving into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region into Day 6/Saturday. Ahead of the trough, strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Plains on Day 3/Thursday, while the surface pressure gradient tightens between a deepening lee trough over the High Plains and expansive surface anticyclone over the eastern CONUS. ...Day 3/Thursday - Northern/Central Plains... The tightening pressure gradient and shallow boundary-layer mixing into the strong deep-layer flow will favor an expansive area of strong/gusty southerly surface winds across the Great Plains and Upper/Middle MS Valley. While the degree of boundary-layer heating/mixing and related RH reductions are uncertain (especially with northward extent), confidence in at least 25-percent RH overlapping the strong/gusty winds is high enough to introduce a 70-percent Critical area. ...Day 4/Friday - Northern/Central California... On the backside of the amplified large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will develop across California on Day 4/Friday -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...