(date: 2024-10-26 06:11:16)
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2024 14:40:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_016adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Fri, 25 Oct 2024 14:40:06 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_5day_016.zip
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Fri, 25 Oct 2024 14:39:40 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Fri, 25 Oct 2024 14:39:40 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/143940.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 251438 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Southerly to southwesterly wind shear is starting to take its toll on Kristy as the system is losing organization. The eye has become cloud filled during the last several hours, with the convective pattern becoming more asymmetric. Deep convection continues to wrap within the eyewall, although a recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicts the inner core is starting to erode. Objective and subjective intensity estimates have been decreasing steadily this morning and range from 105-115 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 110 kt. Kristy is moving toward the west-northwest with an estimated motion of 300/12 kt. The system will move more northwestward to north-northwestward for the next few days, steered along the southwestern periphery of a ridge located over the eastern Pacific. Towards the end of the period, as the system weakens and becomes a remnant low, Kristy's forward speed will also decrease with a turn toward the west-southwest within the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is very near the previous one with a slight nudge northward, towards the corrected and simple consensus track aids. The environment along the forecast path of Kristy is only becoming increasingly hostile. Vertical wind shear is forecast to continue to rise, with cooling sea-surface temperatures and drier mid-levels of the atmosphere. Thus, steady to rapid weakening is anticipated through the forecast period. Model simulated satellite data depicts that Kristy will struggle to produce convection late this weekend, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 60 h, and dissipating into a trough by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast follows these model trends. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 15.8N 124.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/251438.shtml
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…KRISTY WEAKENING… As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Oct 25 the center of Kristy was located near 15.8, -124.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/251438.shtml
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 251438
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 125W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
20N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
15N 130W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 X 9( 9) 35(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
20N 130W 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/251438.shtml
date: 2024-10-25, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 251437 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC FRI OCT 25 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 124.8W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 124.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.0N 126.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.8N 128.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.4N 129.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.0N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.4N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 124.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/251437.shtml
date: 2024-10-25, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:34:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_012adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:34:30 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_fcst_012.zip
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:34:11 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_012adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:34:04 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_5day_012.zip
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:33:39 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Thu, 24 Oct 2024 15:22:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/143339.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 241432 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Kristy's satellite presentation has improved this morning as the eye has reappeared on infrared and visible imagery, with deep convection wrapping around the center. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass depicted that the system has completed an eyewall replacement cycle, with an inner core becoming re-established and contracting towards the center. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate data-T values have increased since the previous advisory with T6.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Given these intensity estimates and recent satellite images, the intensity is set to 130 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving westward at an estimated motion of 270/15 kt, being steered by a ridge located over the northeastern Pacific. Kristy will gradually round the southwestern portion of the ridge over the next day or so, with a turn to the northwest then north-northwest continuing through the weekend between the flow of the aforementioned ridge and a trough to the west. By the end of the weekend, Kristy is forecast to rapidly weaken with the remnants turning west-southwestward within the low-level steering flow. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly to the right of the previous forecast, closer to the simple consensus aids. Kristy is forecast to remain within a favorable environment for the next 24 hours or so, with warm sea surface temperatures and light vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast calls for some slight re-intensification during this time, although recent microwave imagery depicts that another eyewall replacement cycle could occur, which would cause some intensity fluctuations in the short term. Thereafter, the environment quickly becomes hostile with strong wind shear, drier air and cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Kristy. Guidance is in fairly good agreement that rapid weakening should occur through the end of the forecast period. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that Kristy will begin to lose convection and become a post-tropical remnant low around 72 h, and depicts the system opening into a trough by 120 h. The NHC intensity forecast follows these trends, showing rapid weakening, and now has the remnant low status at 72h, and dissipation at 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 14.1N 120.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly/B.Adams
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/241432.shtml
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 241432
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 125W 34 3 93(96) 2(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
15N 125W 50 X 73(73) 6(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
15N 125W 64 X 38(38) 9(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13)
15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 40(43) 40(83) X(83) X(83)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) X(48)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/241432.shtml
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…MAJOR HURRICANE KRISTY CONTINUES WESTWARD… As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Oct 24 the center of Kristy was located near 14.1, -120.3 with movement W at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/241431.shtml
date: 2024-10-24, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 241431 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC THU OCT 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 105SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 120.3W AT 24/1500Z AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.4N 122.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.3N 124.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.8N 126.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.6N 128.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.6N 130.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 120.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/B.ADAMS
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/241431.shtml
date: 2024-10-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 14:49:31 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_008adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 14:49:23 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_fcst_008.zip
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 14:49:09 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_008adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 14:49:01 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_5day_008.zip
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 14:48:51 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Wed, 23 Oct 2024 15:24:18 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/144851.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 231442 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 The impressive rapid intensification of Kristy has continued this morning. The gradually warming eye of the hurricane is surrounded by a ring of very deep convection, with infrared cloud tops as cold as -75 to -80 deg C. GOES-West derived motion winds indicate good upper-level outflow, particularly over the southern and western portions of the circulation. Subjective Dvorak classifications were a consensus T5.5/102-kt from TAFB and SAB at 12 UTC. Satellite trends suggest Kristy has kept strengthening since that time, and the initial intensity is set at 110 kt, following the rising objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane is moving quickly westward (265/17 kt) while being steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its north. This quick westward motion should continue for the next 24-36 h. Then, an upper-level trough between the Hawaiian Islands and the west coast of the United States is forecast to erode the western extent of the ridge. As a result, Kristy is expected to move toward the west-northwest and northwest late this week and into the weekend. A westward motion is shown by day 5, as it is anticipated that Kristy will become highly sheared and decoupled, with the vertically shallow vortex steered by the low-level ridge. No significant changes were made to the latest NHC track forecast. Kristy is a relatively small hurricane that remains susceptible to rapid intensity fluctuations in a weak shear environment over warm SSTs. The latest GFS and ECMWF SHIPS output shows a 50 to 60 percent chance of a 20-kt increase during the next 12 h, and the satellite trends suggest continued near-term strengthening is likely. The updated NHC forecast reflects these signals and lies above the intensity guidance in the near term, showing Kristy peaking as a category 4 hurricane on Thursday. By Friday, the aforementioned trough is expected to impart increased shear on the hurricane, which should induce weakening through the rest of the 5-day forecast period. With SHIPS-diagnosed shear values of 40-50 kt by the weekend, Kristy is forecast to quickly weaken over the weekend and degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.3N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/231442.shtml
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 231441
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 115W 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
15N 115W 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
15N 115W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
15N 120W 34 X 81(81) 9(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
15N 120W 50 X 29(29) 15(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
15N 120W 64 X 10(10) 9(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) 13(13) 77(90) 4(94) X(94) X(94)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 61(63) 10(73) X(73) X(73)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 40(40) 9(49) X(49) X(49)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 32(70) X(70)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 22(32) X(32)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/231441.shtml
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 231441 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kristy Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 800 AM MST Wed Oct 23 2024 ...KRISTY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 113.9W ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF SOCORRO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kristy was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 113.9 West. Kristy is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and northwest is expected on Friday and into the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kristy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/231441.shtml
date: 2024-10-23, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 231441 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 1500 UTC WED OCT 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.9W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.9W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 116.4W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.1N 119.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 14.3N 122.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 15.1N 125.1W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 113.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/231441.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:56:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_005adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:56:19 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_fcst_005.zip
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:56:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_005adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:55:58 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_5day_005.zip
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:55:35 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 21:22:57 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/205535.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 222053 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 PM MST Tue Oct 22 2024 Recent satellite and ASCAT data show Kristy has strengthened significantly over the last six hours. Satellite imagery shows persistent convection starting to wrap around a potential inner core, with high-level cirrus clouds beginning to clear out, revealing a developing eye. The ASCAT pass from 1618z showed a robust wind field, with a max wind retrieval of 53 kt. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates also concur with these observations, with T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB at 18 UTC. Given the improvement on satellite since that time, the initial intensity is now set at the upper-end of these estimates at 65 kt, making Kristy a hurricane. Kristy continues to move just north of due west this afternoon as it skirts along the periphery of a deep-layered subtropical ridge. Current motion is set at 275/16 kt and this westward motion should continue for the next couple of days. The cyclone will begin to track poleward starting this weekend around 60-72 hours as a mid-level trough impinges on the ridge. Uncertainty increases by that time given differences in the global models as to the evolution of the synoptic pattern. As such, the latest NHC track forecast remains close to the previous one over the next couple of days and is just a little to the south of the previous forecast track thereafter. The intensity forecast remains quite bullish, with rapid intensification expected within the next 12-24 hours as Kristy encounters a very favorable environment as indicated by the GFS- and ECMWF-SHIPS guidance. The latter aid also indicates a 40 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in intensity in 24 hours, nearly ten times the climatological average. The latest NHC forecast will explicitly show Kristy intensifying up to 100 kt major hurricane intensity in 24 h, with a peak intensity of 115 kt at 60 h. After 60-72 h, Kristy will encounter a more hostile environment, with increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures which will likely weaken the cyclone by the end of the forecast. Kristy is likely to become post-tropical in 120 h as it loses convective organization. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 14.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Torres-Vazquez/Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/222053.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 222044
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 110W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
15N 110W 50 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
15N 110W 64 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 115W 34 1 84(85) 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
15N 115W 50 X 45(45) 24(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
15N 115W 64 X 19(19) 23(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
10N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) 31(31) 59(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 57(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 85(90) 1(91) X(91)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 67(67) 1(68) X(68)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 45(45) 1(46) X(46)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 6(53)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
20N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/222044.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…KRISTY BECOMES A HURRICANE AND APPEARS POISED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY… As of 2:00 PM MST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.7, -108.5 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/222044.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 222042 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 108.5W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 107.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.6N 111.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.7N 123.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 45NW. 34 KT... 95NE 70SE 70SW 95NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.7N 126.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 55NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 75SE 65SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 110NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 108.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER TORRES-VAZQUEZ/PAPIN=
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/222042.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...20z Update... The general thunderstorm areas have been removed from northern MN and the IL vicinity as lightning probabilities are expected to rapidly diminish over the next 1-2 hours. A few flashes are still possible across the TX Big Bend vicinity into early evening. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/22/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into southern Iowa. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging briefly develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. High pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions there. In association with the Rockies/Plains trough, a cold front will push quickly southeastward across the northern and central Plains, extending roughly from MN into the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Modest boundary-layer moistening will occur with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F as far north as southwest IA. As the cold front interacts with the narrow plume of instability, at least isolated surface-based storms are anticipated during the late afternoon, trending toward elevated through the evening, from northeast KS into northern MO and IA. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height, suggesting a supercell, even if elevated, may occur, with hail risk. The favored zone for initiation will be the KS portion of the cold front where low-level lapse rates will be steepest. Overall, the main limiting factor for this event will be moisture quality as lift and shear will be favorable. ..Jewell.. 10/22/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:38:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_003adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:38:37 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_fcst_003.zip
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:38:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_003adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:38:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_5day_003.zip
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 08:37:50 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 09:28:54 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083750.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 220835 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 300 AM CST Tue Oct 22 2024 Satellite images indicate that Kristy has continued to gradually become better organized during the overnight hours. A convective burst has been occurring over the low-level center, an indication that a central core could be forming. The cyclone also has some impressive curved banding to the north and west, although these bands are a bit far from the center. A pair of ASCAT passes from 22/0346 UTC and 22/0441 UTC showed tropical storm force winds in the northern semi-circle, with vectors in the 35 to 38 kt range. Since the time of the ASCAT passes, Kristy's convection has become better organized, with latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at a consensus T-3.0/45 kt. The initial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt for this advisory. Kristy is estimated to be moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone will steer it westward for the next 3 days or so. Friday into the weekend, a turn to the west-northwest or northwest is expected as Kristy rounds the western periphery of the mid to upper-level ridge, and a mid-latitude upper-level trough approaches from the west. The track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous official forecast and lies in the middle of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance at days 4 and 5, so confidence in this part of the forecast is a bit below average. Environmental conditions are favorable for steady strengthening, and rapid intensification cannot be ruled out. For the next 72 h, Kristy will remain within an environment of warm ocean temperatures, relatively weak vertical wind shear, and a moist troposphere. Beyond 72 h, southerly or southwesterly vertical wind shear will begin to increase over the cyclone, becoming strong in 4 to 5 days. Kristy should also cross the 26C isotherm in about 4 days and move into a much more stable environment. Therefore, weakening should begin in 3 to 4 days, with the potential for rapid weakening in 4 to 5 days. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous prediction, which calls for Kristy to peak at 100 kt in a few days, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.2N 104.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/220835.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 220834
PWSEP2
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 105W 34 62 X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
10N 110W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 110W 34 2 87(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
15N 110W 50 X 48(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
15N 110W 64 X 16(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
10N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 55(57) 32(89) X(89) X(89) X(89)
15N 115W 50 X X( X) 17(17) 43(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
15N 115W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
10N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 71(89) X(89) X(89)
15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) X(61) X(61)
15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) X(40)
20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
10N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 35(74) 1(75)
15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43)
15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 1(25)
20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15)
15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16)
15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 42(57)
20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 23(26)
20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
$$
FORECASTER HAGEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/220834.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…KRISTY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN… As of 3:00 AM CST Tue Oct 22 the center of Kristy was located near 14.2, -104.8 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/220834.shtml
date: 2024-10-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 220833 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 104.8W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 104.0W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.3N 113.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.2N 117.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.3N 120.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 123.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.1N 127.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.3N 131.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 104.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/220833.shtml
date: 2024-10-21, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 21 Oct 2024 17:39:20 GMT
date: 2024-10-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-10-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-10-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2024-10-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html