(date: 2024-11-02 18:00:59)
date: 2024-11-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z The primary changes made to the Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand Elevated highlights into southern Pennsylvania, and northeast to portions of coastal New England. In these areas ahead of the cold front, clearing skies are leading to rapid boundary-layer mixing and lowering of RH. Sustained surface winds are already reaching 20 mph in spots, with higher gusts, and short-range guidance consensus suggests that RH should drop to 30-35 percent RH by mid-afternoon. As such, Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely given the presence of dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a midlevel trough tracking east-northeastward across the Northeast, deep tropospheric drying will occur across portions of the Mid-Atlantic behind a related cold front. A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level flow will yield 15 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 25-30 mph). These winds will overlap 25-35 percent RH behind the front during the afternoon, and given very dry fuels across the region (90th percentile ERCs), a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. While there will be some potential for isolated early-day showers along the front, this activity should be too light and/or isolated to have an appreciable impact on the receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-11-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, from this evening into the overnight. ...Southern High Plains... Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows patches of stratocumulus over the Pecos River Valley. This low-level moisture coincides with the northwesterly fringe of richer moisture located over the Hill Country and Deep South TX. The timelapse of water-vapor imagery shows the onset of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. A lead lower-latitude disturbance over northern Baja and Sonora will shift eastward along the Mexican border during the period and aid in the development of a lee trough over the southern High Plains beneath moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow. A gradual intensification of low-level warm-air advection downstream of the upper trough will occur through tonight across the southern High Plains. Model guidance continues to indicate widely spaced/isolated thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and into the evening across Far West TX into southeastern NM as 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE develops coincident with the increase in low-level moisture. Thunderstorm coverage should increase from late this evening through the overnight hours, and begin training within a southwest/northeast-oriented plume from far west TX to southern KS. This convective growth will be related to strengthening low-level theta-e and moisture, WAA-related large-scale ascent, and weakening MUCINH. The most intense cells embedded in this regime may produce severe hail or gusts, but the overall areal severe threat still appears to be on the marginal side, due to lack of greater instability/buoyancy. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/01/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-11-01, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 01 Nov 2024 16:02:05 GMT
date: 2024-10-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2024-10-31, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Areas affected...southern Kansas and northwest/central/northern
Oklahoma.
Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...
Valid 302045Z - 302215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694 continues.
SUMMARY...The large hail/severe wind threat is expected to continue
through the afternoon as supercells move across northwest Oklahoma
and into southern Kansas. The tornado threat is expected to increase
this evening.
DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed along the dryline in western
Oklahoma. Thus far, one measured wind gust of 70 mph has been
observed with MRMS MESH suggesting around 1 to 1.25 inch hail. As
these supercells mature, expect the threat for large hail and severe
wind gusts to continue. Low-level shear is quite weak this afternoon
(60-70 m2/s2 0-500 SRH per VNX VWP), but is forecast to increase
substantially after 22-23Z as the low-level jet strengthens. During
this time is when the greatest tornado threat is anticipated.
Eventually, expect storms to congeal into a squall line with severe
wind and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes as the primary threat.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35059955 36819900 37909829 38429790 38619757 38649711
38519651 37559635 35999661 35249716 34789802 34689863
35059955
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2166.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Areas affected...Southern Iowa and far northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693...
Valid 302005Z - 302200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 693
continues.
SUMMARY...A line of storms will continue to pose a risk of damaging
winds across southern Iowa and far northern Missouri over the next
few hours. However, downstream watch issuance is not currently
anticipated given recent convective trends.
DISCUSSION...An organized bowing segment with a history of producing
severe winds continues to migrate across south-central IA. However,
a decrease in vertically integrated ice, VIL, and echo top height
has been noted over the past 30 minutes, suggesting that the severe
wind threat may be decreasing in spatial extent and/or intensity to
some degree. This is likely attributable to the QLCS meandering into
a slightly more stable air mass where daytime heating has been muted
due to preceding clouds and light rain. Despite these trends,
gradual destabilization continues immediately downstream of the line
and ahead of the cold front due to strong low-level warm/moist
advection with MLCAPE estimates up to 500 J/kg per mesoanalysis and
RAP forecast soundings. The combination of modest
destabilization/ascent and favorable deep-layer, line-orthogonal
wind shear may maintain the severe wind threat downstream through
the remainder of WW 693. Additional watch issuance into
southeast/eastern IA remains uncertain and will be conditional on
convective trends over the next 1-2 hours.
..Moore.. 10/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...
LAT...LON 41459431 42289321 42459298 42499275 42479252 42399239
42279228 41519209 40899209 40549230 40359263 40289311
40459436 40639442 41049442 41459431
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2165.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Areas affected...northeast Kansas into southeast Nebraska and far
northwest Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 302003Z - 302200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Airmass recovery should result in some severe storms this
afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION...Widespread showers and thunderstorms across northeast
Kansas has stunted destabilization thus far. However, some clearing
and low-level moisture advection in the wake of the morning activity
has started to destabilize parts of northeast Kansas. A line of
storms is starting to organize across central Kansas which is
expected to continue to grow upscale as it moves northeast. Expect
sufficient destabilization ahead of this line of storms for some
threat for severe wind gusts, large hail, and potentially a few
tornadoes (along and south of the front). A tornado watch will
likely need to be issued within the next hour or two across
northeast Kansas, to fill the gap between watch 693 and 694.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38709796 39259727 39969597 40299515 40279402 40039335
39259334 38549390 38279506 38109600 38219708 38479809
38709796
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2164.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW FLV TO 35 SW LWD TO 25 SSW DSM TO 35 SSE FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2165 ..MOORE..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-039-051-053-099-117-123-125-127-135-153-157-171-179-181- 185-302140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE CLARKE DAVIS DECATUR JASPER LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK TAMA WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE MOC001-021-061-063-079-081-129-171-197-211-302140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BUCHANAN DAVIESS DEKALB GRUNDY HARRISON MERCER PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0693.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
130 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southern/Central Iowa
Extreme Northeast Kansas
Northern Missouri
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM
until 700 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 80 mph possible
Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A bowing thunderstorm cluster will likely continue to pose
a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds potentially up to 70-80
mph as it continues east-northeastward across northern Missouri and
southern/central Iowa this afternoon and early evening. Isolated
hail and perhaps a tornado may also occur.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north
northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 5 miles northeast of Ottumwa IA. For
a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
22040.
...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0693.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 694
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
205 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
South-Central Kansas
Western into Central/North-Central Oklahoma
* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM
until 900 PM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts
to 75 mph possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Developing supercells will pose a threat for large to very
large hail initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Later this
afternoon into the evening, the threat for a few tornadoes will
increase. A strong tornado or two appears possible, especially early
this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will also become a
concern later this evening as thunderstorms eventually form into a
line.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Hutchinson KS to
35 miles east of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.
...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0694.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW P28 TO 25 WNW HUT TO 10 S SLN. ..BENTLEY..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-017-035-077-079-095-115-151-155-173-191-302140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHASE COWLEY HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN MARION PRATT RENO SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC003-011-015-017-027-039-043-047-051-053-071-073-083-087-093- 103-109-119-149-151-153-302140- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MCCLAIN MAJOR NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA WOODS WOODWARD
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0694.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-10-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2161
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0907 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024
Areas affected...central/northern Kansas into southeast Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301407Z - 301530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated storms capable of some large hail are possible
this morning from portions of central Kansas into southeast
Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...Lightning has increased across central Kansas as ascent
increases across the Plains within a moderately unstable
environment. The TOP 12Z RAOB indicated around 1300 J/kg MUCAPE and
continued low-level moisture advection and mid-level cooling should
increase instability as the morning progresses. Effective shear was
actually quite weak at 12Z with a 60 knot low-level jet near the
low-level jet and 60 knots at 7km with weaker flow between this
layer. However, as the mid-level jet streak approaches the region
and nocturnal influences of the low-level jet reduce, a more
favorable, gradually increasing wind profile with height is expected
to develop by late morning to early afternoon. As instability and
the wind profile improve, eventually expect some supercells to
develop along or slightly on the cool side of the cold front.
Isolated large hail will be the primary threat from this activity
later this morning and into the early afternoon. A watch likely will
not be needed in the short term.
..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37110000 37939979 39269915 39729849 40519649 40619585
40539567 40359558 39959604 38889745 38299801 37699865
37329913 37069966 37110000
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2161.html
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260837 TCDEP2 Hurricane Kristy Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122024 200 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Kristy continues to weaken this morning. While the hurricane is still producing an area of fairly deep convection, this convection is becoming stretched poleward as south-southwesterly vertical wind shear steadily increases over the tropical cyclone. Subjective Dvorak estimates are constrained from decreasing faster this morning, but taking a blend of subjective and objective intensity estimates yields an intensity of 85 kt for this advisory. The shear diagnosed by SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS analysis is now up to 30 kt, and is forecast to increase above 40 kt in 24 h. In addition, Kristy is now crossing the 26 C isotherm and heading for even cooler ocean waters. This combination should continue to result in rapid weakening, with the hurricane likely to vertically decouple later today. The NHC intensity forecast continues to blend the previous forecast with the latest consensus aids, showing Kristy weakening below hurricane intensity by this evening. Remnant low status is likely not far behind on Sunday as the cyclone ceases to produce organized deep convection, as depicted by both global and regional-hurricane models. The remnant low low should finally open up into a trough on Monday. The hurricane has maintained a northwestward motion this morning at 320/13 kt. While the prominent subtropical mid-level ridge over Baja California steering Kristy should remain in place, the tropical cyclone's vertically deep vortex will likely decouple over the next 24 h. This decoupling will result in the mid-level vortex leaving behind Kristy's surface circulation, which should quickly slow down and turn westward as it becomes primarily influenced by strong low-level ridging to its north. The track guidance continues to be in relative good agreement with the prior forecast track, and only minor adjustments were made from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.7N 127.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP2+shtml/260837.shtml
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:36:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_019adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep122024_best_track.zip
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep122024_best_track.kmz
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_fcst_019.zip
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:35 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP122024_019adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:28 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep122024_5day_019.zip
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:35:00 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sat, 26 Oct 2024 09:23:00 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/083500.shtml?cone
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ12 KNHC 260834
PWSEP2
HURRICANE KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024
0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
20N 125W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
20N 130W 34 29 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP2+shtml/260834.shtml
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260833 TCMEP2 HURRICANE KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 26 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 127.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 129.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.4N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN=
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP2+shtml/260833.shtml
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…KRISTY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN… …EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY… As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 26 the center of Kristy was located near 18.7, -127.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP2+shtml/260834.shtml
date: 2024-10-26, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sat, 26 Oct 2024 08:33:52 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP12/atcf-ep122024.xml