(date: 2024-11-17 16:11:25)
date: 2024-11-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 18 00:04:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-11-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 18 00:04:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-11-17, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 17 Nov 2024 23:40:46 GMT
date: 2024-11-17, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ACPN50 PHFO 172325
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sun Nov 17 2024
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Foster
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-11-17, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 172318
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
400 PM PST Sun Nov 17 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Offshore of
Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located about one
hundred miles offshore of
the coast of southwestern Mexico is
producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Development
appears unlikely due to strong
upper-level winds during the next
day or so while the system moves
east-southeastward at 5 to 10
mph, roughly parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10 percent.
* Formation
chance through 7 days…low…10 percent.
$$
Forecaster
Reinhart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-11-17, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-11-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-11-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-11-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Plains states and Upper MS Valley region on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures behind a cold front poised to sweep across the OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast. As the primary surface low over the upper MS Valley ejects into Ontario through the day, surface lee troughing should occur along the central Gulf Coast, supporting continued onshore moisture advection. Given a modest, trailing low-level jet aiding in the moisture advection, enough shear and instability along the Gulf Coast may encourage strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development. ...Portions of the central Gulf Coast Region... Surface lee troughing will encourage mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints to advect onshore amid adequate surface heating during the day, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. As storms intensify within a warm-air advection regime, veering/strengthening of the vertical wind profile will support modestly curved hodographs ahead of the storms. Transient supercells may develop from some of the stronger updrafts, with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado possible. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-11-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of western, central and northwest Texas from Sunday evening through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level trough will eject into the southern Plains tomorrow (Sunday) into tomorrow night as a second mid-level trough impinges on the Interior West. By tomorrow night into early Monday morning, surface low development is expected across western TX as strong upper support and an 80 kt mid-level speed max overspread the southern Plains. Low-level warm-air advection accompanying the developing surface low will support modest boundary-layer destabilization across central TX into southern OK, where adequate lift and shear will support some potential for severe thunderstorms. ...Southern Plains - Sunday Night into early Monday Morning... By around 06Z Monday morning, a surface low should begin to materialize just south of the TX Panhandle with the ejection of the aforementioned mid-level trough. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, modest surface-850 mb theta-e advection will support a corridor of 500-750 J/kg SBCAPE across central TX into extreme southern OK during the 06-12Z time frame. Given strong forcing for ascent and south-southwesterly 500 mb flow oriented roughly parallel with an approaching cold front, a squall line is expected to develop and advance northeast in tandem with the surface low. Modest veering but rapid strengthening with height of the vertical wind profile will support large, curved hodographs ahead of the squall line. 0-500 m SRH may exceed 200 m2/s2, with 0-3 km SRH reaching 400 m2/s2 in spots. However, questions remain regarding how much SRH can be effectively ingested into thunderstorm updrafts given scant buoyancy profiles. Still, effective downward momentum transport of the strong synoptic flow aloft may support severe gusts within the squall line. Furthermore, if strong enough low-level WAA can appreciably destabilize the nocturnal boundary-layer, then isolated QLCS tornadoes may also occur. Any QLCS tornadoes that can develop will most likely occur with any LEWPS or mesovortices within portions of the squall line preceding the surface low track, where low-level winds will be most backed and low-level shear will be strongest. ..Squitieri.. 11/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-11-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from eastern MT into the Dakotas. This feature will continue eastward across the northern Plains/Canadian Prairies into the overnight/early morning hours. In the 04-12Z time frame, associated cooling aloft atop a cool/stable boundary layer will contribute to weak elevated instability across the Upper Midwest. Given strong low-level warm advection and midlevel ascent preceding the trough, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Farther south, a separate low-level jet will promote a band of showers over the Upper TX Coast during the overnight hours. Related low-level warming/moistening will contribute to weak instability, though dry air aloft should generally limit lightning potential. ..Weinman.. 11/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-11-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1002 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest observations show wind speeds already increasing to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Similarly, RH values have fallen into the 20-35% range with some further reduction possible through early afternoon. Consideration was made for an upgrade to a Critical risk across parts of New England where conditions are currently the driest and 20+ mph gusts are being observed. However, wind speeds are expected to abate slightly through the afternoon away from terrain features (critical conditions appear most probable in the lee of Ponco and Catskill mountains). ..Moore.. 11/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 PM CST Fri Nov 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of stronger mid-level winds will be favorably placed across portions of New England and Mid-Atlantic today. A stronger surface pressure gradient will also remain across the region. A few hours of elevated fire weather appear likely. Winds of 10-15 mph and RH 25-40% amid very dry fuels will support large fire potential during the afternoon. A few stronger gusts are possible as well, but boundary-layer mixing should be limited enough to keep these gusts isolated. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-11-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 AM CST Sat Nov 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within large-scale upper troughing over the western CONUS, a shortwave trough should move eastward across the northern Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces through the period. A related surface low over the northern Plains this morning will develop generally northeastward into western Ontario by late tonight. Low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of these features across parts of the Upper Midwest through much of the period. While instability is expected to remain rather muted, sufficient MUCAPE for elevated convection may exist by late evening into the overnight hours across this region. Overall lightning coverage will probably tend to be rather isolated given the weak instability forecast. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/16/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-11-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The ongoing forecast for elevated fire-weather conditions tomorrow (Friday) is still on track across portions of New England (see previous discussion below). The area was slightly expanded to the north and south where meteorological conditions will be similar to the rest of the area, and fuels are also abnormally dry (i.e., ERC values exceeding the 90th percentile). Over portions of eastern Arizona and western New Mexico, strong south-southwesterly surface winds and low RH are likely during the afternoon hours, but fuels will likely not be receptive for large-fire spread (i.e., ERC values generally below the 60th percentile). ..Jirak.. 11/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...New England... Post-frontal offshore flow will return across the New England coast on Friday. Relative humidity reductions to around 30-40 percent will be possible with northwesterly breezes around 10-15 mph. Given drought conditions and very little recent rainfall, Elevated fire weather concerns will be likely with fuels in the region remaining receptive to fire spread. ...Southern Arizona and Western New Mexico... A deepening trough will bring increasing westerly flow aloft and strong southwesterly surface winds across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Relative humidity reductions to around 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds around 15-20 mph. Portions of southeastern Arizona and western New Mexico have seen less recent rain/snowfall, with potential for some drying of fine fuels possible. Overall, ERCs are largely at or below the 50th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-11-14, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible along parts of the West Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels. This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening. A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with the more discrete rotating cells. ...West Coast... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening. ..Broyles.. 11/14/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html