(date: 2024-11-19 12:51:37)
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Tue Nov 19 20:39:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 19 20:39:01 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through early next week across the country. The upper trough currently in place across the central U.S. will gradually shift east through the remainder of the week with attendant rain chances overspreading much of the Great Lakes and New England regions. Upper ridging appears likely across the inter-mountain West/Plains in the wake of the eastern trough, which will promote dry conditions but relatively benign low-level gradient winds. Along the West Coast, the intensifying low off the Pacific Northwest coast will maintain widespread rain/snow chances through the end of the week before gradually de-amplifying and shifting inland. Most regions are expected to see some degree of precipitation by the weekend, which will mitigate fuel/fire concerns. The only exceptions to this will be the Four Corners and the southern to central Plains where the probability for wetting rainfall appears fairly low. Some fuel drying is anticipated across these regions, though recent heavy rain across the Plains will require multiple days of warm, dry, and windy conditions to support a fire concern. Long-range ensemble guidance hints that a breakdown of the upper ridge is likely by early next week, which may support dry/windy conditions across the Four Corners/southern Plains as shortwave troughs propagate eastward within the mean zonal flow regime. However, confidence in any fire concern is very low at this range. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low the remainder of the afternoon thought tonight. ...20z Update - Central Gulf Coast vicinity... Severe probabilities have been removed as inland convection has outpaced axis of modest instability. Any stronger storms are expected to remain offshore. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level low will move slowly east-southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England through the period. Ahead of this feature and north of a related coastal surface low, cold temperatures aloft/modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will contribute to weak elevated instability over immediate coastal areas of southern New England during the morning hours. While an isolated lightning flash will be possible within a swath of warm-advection precipitation, the overall coverage appears too limited for a General Thunderstorm area. Elsewhere, expansive surface ridging over the western/central CONUS and related offshore flow will limit thunderstorm potential. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 19 Nov 2024 18:48:09 GMT
date: 2024-11-19, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-11-19, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-11-19, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on latest high-res guidance. Similar conditions to today (Tuesday) remain likely Wednesday across the Plains and will support a wind-driven fire weather concern. For additional details see the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 19 Nov 2024 18:48:09 GMT
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough/low will evolve eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Great Lakes through the period. In response, a surface low will deepen and gradually occlude over the Great Lakes, while a related cold front moves eastward across the eastern states. Strong midlevel height falls preceding the upper trough will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning along/ahead of the cold front. Despite strong deep-layer westerly flow/shear accompanying the trough, limited heating/poor lapse rates and dry air aloft should limit updraft intensity. Over the western FL Peninsula, richer boundary-layer moisture will be in place along/ahead of the front, where guidance indicates a weak frontal wave low during the morning. Here, strong low-level flow (and curved low-level hodographs) could favor a few strong/rotating storms approaching the coast, though weak instability/lapse rates should limit the severe threat over land. Farther west, several perturbations embedded in a belt of strong mid/upper-level westerly flow -- within the base of a midlevel low off the BC coast -- will promote isolated thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. Elongated hodographs (with ample low-level curvature) will conditionally support a few strong/embedded cells capable of locally strong gusts and possibly waterspouts. However, any severe threat onshore appears too conditional for severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/19/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeast TX...Central LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 711... Valid 190009Z - 190145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will continue spreading northeast across the eastern half of ww711. DISCUSSION...Several long-lived supercells are noted within ww711 early this evening. One in particular is crossing Newton County TX into northwestern Vernon Parish. This activity appears partly aided by the right-entrance region of the mid-level jet, along with sustained low-level warm advection. While lapse rates are not that steep, low-mid 70s surface dew points are contributing to significant buoyancy. Until the LLJ lifts north of this air mass, organized supercell threat will likely continue. Primary risk continues to be damaging winds along with some tornado risk, especially for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30789387 32019304 32019223 30969261 30419330 30789387
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2236.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds will persist into late evening or the early overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-MO Valley to Lower MS Valley... Severe probabilities have been removed from most of east TX northward into MO/KS/NE/IA based on current location of the surface cold front and ongoing convection. Any remaining convection across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity will continue to weaken with eastward extent given a dearth of instability. Further south, severe probabilities remain unchanged (other than trimming behind ongoing QLCS) across the Lower MS Valley. A risk for isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible, especially over the next few hours. By late evening into the overnight hours, severe potential is expected to become lower with eastward extent across southern MS/southeast LA and southern AL as large-scale ascent is rapidly becoming further displaced from better boundary layer moisture. Strong vertical shear will persist, but surface-based parcels likely will be unable to realize the favorable SRH environment, limiting severe potential with eastward extent. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HOU TO 5 NE SHV. ..LYONS..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-013-031-043-049-069-079-081-085-115-127-182340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC199-241-291-351-403-405-419-457-182340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER LIBERTY NEWTON SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0711.html
date: 2024-11-19, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. A few of the stronger storms will evolve into supercells and pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Natchitoches LA to 90 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Smith
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0711.html
date: 2024-11-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html