(date: 2024-12-22 07:04:56)
date: 2024-12-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 22 13:40:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-12-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 22 13:40:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-12-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. This upper feature will move east-northeast into British Columbia and WA/OR tonight. Cooling midlevel temperatures will result in weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MUCAPE) late today into tonight from portions of northern CA northward along the coastal ranges of OR/WA. Elsewhere, mainly tranquil and stable conditions will prevail across the Lower 48 states. ..Smith/Goss.. 12/22/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-12-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... A moderately amplified and more active/progressive southern-stream pattern is still expected later this week, along with a general northward fluctuation of low-level moisture across parts of Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast. After a day of little or no severe-weather potential on Christmas Wednesday/Day 4, severe risks are expected to increase into Days 5-7 Thursday-Saturday. A secondary upper trough is expected to emerge from the Southwest deserts and moves toward the Ozarks/Deep South. This could lead to at least a low-end multi-day severe risk in a corridor from east/southeast Texas and the ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley. In particular, Thursday/Day 5 could ultimately warrant Slight Risk-caliber severe probabilities across east/southeast Texas, especially if the more southern and more severe-favorable ECMWF model runs become more apparent.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2024-12-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge centered near the Continental Divide will translate slowly eastward through the day as a strong, compact, negatively-tilted mid-level trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. Across the eastern CONUS a trough will persist on Saturday with dry, offshore flow at the surface. The lack of low-level moisture will limit any thunderstorm potential across most of the CONUS. The only exception will be across the Oregon/northern California coasts where cooling mid-level temps over the relatively warmer ocean waters may result in some shallow instability and the potential for a few thunderstorms. The strong low-level jet (50 to 70 knots from 12Z to 18Z Saturday along the Oregon/northern CA coast) may result in some gusty winds, even where lightning is not present. However, overall, limited instability should mitigate any severe weather potential. ..Bentley.. 12/20/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-12-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 12/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large-scale trough will move from the OH Valley to the Northeast, while a midlevel ridge persists over the Intermountain West. This will maintain relatively cool post-frontal conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Over the central High Plains, surface lee troughing may result in locally dry/breezy conditions, though fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-12-20, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Fri Dec 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through the Mid MS Valley is expected to continue cyclonically through the base of the mean upper troughing over eastern North America, which takes it off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late tonight. Another shortwave trough is expected in its wake over the Great Lakes this afternoon through tonight, while yet another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the northern Plains. This evolution will help maintain mean troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, with cold and stable low levels precluding thunderstorm development. Farther west, upper ridging will persist another much of the western CONUS. Some dampening is anticipated within the northwestern periphery of is ridging as a pair of shortwave troughs rotate around an upper low over the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Frontal band associated with the second of these waves should reach the northern CA coast early Saturday morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse rates may result in enough buoyancy for a few lightning flashes within this band. ..Mosier/Moore.. 12/20/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-12-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Upper-level ridging over the West will continue to shift eastward and eventually lose amplitude as it moves into the Plains this weekend. Shortwave troughs are expected to move through the northern/central Plains late this weekend into early next week. By the middle of next week, guidance shows agreement that a shortwave trough will move into the Southwest and eject into the southern Plains around Wednesday/Thursday. The overall fire weather concern during the period is likely to be low on account of cooler temperatures and/or light winds. Some locally elevated conditions could occur in the central High Plains with the passage of the shortwave troughs. The feature to watch will be the forecast trough moving into the southern Plains. Areas of eastern New Mexico and western Texas have received little rainfall recently. Some increase in fire weather concern is possible those areas depending on the timing of the trough. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-12-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through the rest of the period. Scattered thunderstorms will continue across portions of the Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic. ...20z... The severe risk has diminished across middle and eastern Tennessee as of 20z, prompting the removal of the remaining Marginal risk area. Thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic along the front this afternoon. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 12/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024/ ...Middle/Eastern Tennessee and Vicinity... A line of convection along/near a cold front will continue to progress steadily eastward across parts of eastern KY, middle/eastern TN and northern AL. This activity is generally outpacing greater low-level moisture to its south, and related instability. Isolated strong to damaging winds still appear possible for a couple more hours while the line can maintain its intensity, even though boundary-layer instability and lapse rates aloft remain rather weak. But, expectations are for the line to weaken quickly by early/mid afternoon as it encounters the higher terrain of the Appalachians and an even less favorable thermodynamic environment. ...Remainder of Southeast into the Southern Mid-Atlantic... Continued low-level warm/moist advection will occur today ahead of an eastward-moving upper trough and related surface cold front. While a conditionally somewhat favorable environment to support organized severe convection should exist across parts of the Southeast into the Carolinas ahead of the front, limited low-level convergence and poor lapse rates/instability should tend to hinder thunderstorm development for most areas. Convection does appear more probable across parts of central/south FL this afternoon and evening, but weak shear should limit severe potential.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-12-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. With a potent shortwave trough move southeastward into the central Plains, a deepening surface low will promote winds of 20-30 mph over parts of western/central Nebraska. Winds will support a locally elevated fire weather threat, but marginal temperatures/RH should limit greater concerns. ..Wendt.. 12/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CST Wed Dec 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level ridging over the western US is forecast to move eastward Thursday as the overall upper-air pattern becomes more amplified. At the surface, high pressure over the Great Basin will move into the Rockies. Aside from some residual offshore flow over parts of southern CA, widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Southern CA... Offshore winds are expected to gradually diminish overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday, as high pressure over the Great Basin shifts eastward. While winds should generally weaken, some lingering, locally elevated fire-weather conditions may continue in the typical Santa Ana mountains/foothills through the afternoon. Limited in spatial coverage and duration, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-12-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Wed Dec 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the Lower 48 on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will persist across much of the central/eastern CONUS on Friday, as a significant embedded shortwave moves from the Ohio Valley vicinity towards the Carolinas and eventually offshore. A reinforcing cold front attendant to the shortwave trough will move southward across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. Dry/stable conditions and the influence of an expansive post-frontal surface ridge should limit destabilization and thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Across the West, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Pacific Northwest early in the day and weaken with time. In its wake, a stronger trough over the eastern Pacific will begin to approach the OR/northern CA coast late Friday night. Convection with sporadic lightning flashes may accompany this stronger shortwave trough and approach near-coastal areas early Saturday morning, but thunderstorm potential is currently expected to remain largely offshore through the end of the period. ..Dean.. 12/18/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html