(date: 2024-12-29 07:06:08)
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 29 15:00:16 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0726 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0726.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 945 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of showers and occasional thunderstorms will produce gusty winds and occasional damaging gusts through the early afternoon. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Greensboro NC to 50 miles south southeast of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 724...WW 725... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0726.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VDI TO 25 W CAE TO 20 ENE AVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318. ..GRAMS..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-191-251-267-291440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL NCC003-023-025-035-045-059-071-097-109-119-159-161-179-291440- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BURKE CABARRUS CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROWAN RUTHERFORD UNION
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0724.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Southwestern North Carolina South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 600 AM until 100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The faster-moving northern part of a line of strong-severe thunderstorms will move northeastward across the watch area thriough midday, offering sporadic damaging to severe gusts and potential for a few embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles east southeast of Savannah GA to 45 miles north of Greenville SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 723... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0724.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0725 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0725.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle to far northern Florida Southeastern and extreme southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 830 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A particularly organized segment of an extensive quasi-linear MCS should move across the watch area through midday, interacting with the outflow boundary from the rest of the system. A threat exists for damaging to severe gusts and occasional, embedded, potentially tornadic mesovortices. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Tallahassee FL to 20 miles east northeast of Jacksonville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 723...WW 724... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0725.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and sporadic damaging to severe gusts are possible today from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the Carolinas and southern Virginia. More-isolated severe storms may occur across parts of the central Appalachians and Ohio Valley, and over southernmost Florida. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive pattern will persist across the CONUS. A strong shortwave trough will move ashore in the Pacific Northwest and northern CA today. This will be preceded by some thunder potential, as lapse rates steepen from large-scale ascent, over areas where at least marginal low/middle-level moisture exists to support convection. Downstream, a strong shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery between the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley. This perturbation will pivot northeastward over TN, KY and IN today, forming a closed 500-mb low by 00Z over the Michiana region, and phasing with an initially upstream perturbation now over the central Plains. By 12Z, the resultant trough should assume considerable negative tilt, extending from a low over eastern Lake Huron to the Hampton Roads of VA/northeastern NC region. The associated surface cyclone was centered at 11Z over southwestern IN, with cold front across middle TN, central AL, past the Mississippi River mouth, then across the northwestern Gulf. The low is forecast to deepen and occlude today as it moves to near TOL. The cold front should sweep across much of the eastern CONUS through the period. By 00Z, the front should reach central parts of PA/VA/ NC/SC, southeastern GA, and the eastern Gulf, preceded by a strong-severe line of thunderstorms. By 12Z, the front should reach eastern NY, then offshore until central FL. ...Southern Atlantic Coast States... An ongoing, prefrontal squall line, with sporadic/embedded LEWP/ bowing features and an occasional embedded mesovortex, extends from northwestern SC across central/southern GA and the FL Panhandle, to the adjoining Gulf. This convection should become more northeast/ southwest oriented as its northern portion races through the central Appalachians/Piedmont region today, amid meager but still locally sufficient buoyancy (MLCAPE mostly less than 400 J/kg), long and curved low-level hodographs with 200-400 J/kg effective SRH, and favorable deep shear. Damaging gusts and a few embedded QLCS tornadoes will be the main concerns. See SPC Tornado Watches 723-724 and associated mesoscale discussions for the latest near-term coverage. ...Central Appalachians/Ohio Valley... Widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms are possible from midday through afternoon in a pocket of marginally unstable air ahead of the surface low and ejecting mid/upper trough. A marginal threat exists for damaging gusts or a brief tornado from this activity. As the trough approaches, midlevel flow will strengthen considerably, associated large-scale ascent will steepen low/middle-level lapse rates, while the mass response increases low-level and deep-layer shear. Temperatures from the upper 50s F to mid 60s (southeastern parts) would support MLCAPE in the 100-400 J/kg range amidst 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes and SRH of 100-200 J/kg in the lowest 1/2 km. Damaging gusts may be brought to the surface via momentum transfer in downdrafts from the LLJ, and conditional potential exists for mini-supercells to develop. Given the weak overall lapse rates and lack of greater buoyancy, the already marginal threat should diminish quickly by around 00Z. ...South FL/Keys... A small but persistent MCS, with an embedded MCV on its northwest side, has been moving slowly eastward across the easternmost Gulf toward Florida Bay for most of the prior overnight hours. This complex should affect at least parts of the mid/upper Keys, and southern Everglades, through midday. The ambient/synoptic gradients suggest only modest deep-layer shear this far from the ejecting shortwave trough. However, mesoscale midlevel flow enhancement and low-level mass response will promote some hodograph enlargement in a small corridor southeast through east of the MCV. Accordingly, sporadic and mostly short-lived mesocirculations have been observed in the complex for several hours, amid rich inflow-layer moisture and low LCL. An associated low-end tornado threat may extend into the outlook area before the complex weakens substantially. See SPC Mesoscale Discussion 2317 for near-term details. ..Edwards/Grams.. 12/29/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 723 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN TO 25 WSW MAI TO 45 NE ABY TO 50 SSE AHN TO 15 ENE AHN. ..GRAMS..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 723 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-129-133-291240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC017-019-023-027-071-075-087-091-107-125-131-141-155-163-167- 173-175-185-205-209-235-253-265-271-275-277-279-283-287-301-303- 309-315-317-319-321-291240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR DODGE EMANUEL GLASCOCK GRADY HANCOCK IRWIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0723.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Sun Dec 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN TEXAS/TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Rockies through the base of a mid-level shortwave moving across the central/southern Plains on D2/Monday. Resulting surface cyclogenesis and strengthening lee troughing will lead to an increase in westerly surface winds across portions of the southern High Plains. This will support a broad region of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns across areas from southeastern Colorado to the Oklahoma Panhandle and into New Mexico and Texas. ...Eastern New Mexico, Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle, Western Texas... Warm/dry/gusty westerly downslope flow is expected across eastern New Mexico into western Texas/Oklahoma Monday. Afternoon relative-humidity reductions to around 10-20 percent (driest across portions of western Texas) will overlap surface winds sustained around 20-25 mph. Fuels within this region have seen drying over the last several days. While latest fuel guidance suggests 100-hr fuels are largely marginal, the extended period of critical winds and relative humidity should lead to further drying (especially of fine fuels), supporting risk for fire spread. The previous D3 70 percent was converted to a Critical area to support this risk. ..Thornton.. 12/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-12-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2297
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0838 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
Areas affected...portions of central Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281438Z - 281615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across central portions of
Texas. Severe wind and hail appear to be the predominant threats
with the stronger storms that develop, though a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed in the next couple
of hours.
DISCUSSION...The boundary layer is expected to gradually warm
through the morning (given diurnal heating), where upper 60s F
surface dewpoints are in place. 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and
deep-layer ascent are overspreading central TX in tandem with the
mid-level trough and associated 70-90 kt upper-level jet streak. As
such, thunderstorms are already developing along a Bosque-Kendall
County line ahead of the cold front, and they should continue to
gradually organize/intensify further throughout the morning. 50+ kt
effective bulk shear is already present over the warm sector, and
shear (as well as boundary-layer based buoyancy) should only
increase with time.
Supercells are possible within this developing band of storms, as
well as with any storms that can develop and mature ahead of the
line, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. Given
relatively steep lapse rates amid curved and elongated hodographs,
severe hail and wind are likely with the stronger storms. Low-level
hodographs are not particularly large (evident via the GRK VAD).
However, given rich low-level moisture and strong deep-layer
forcing/shear, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with
any sustained supercell preceding the main line of storms. A WW
issuance will likely be needed over the next hour or so.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 12/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30949556 30339580 30059667 29979765 29989837 30239858
30909832 31469797 31779719 32019619 31929566 31539555
30949556
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2297.html
date: 2024-12-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0718 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0718.html
date: 2024-12-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 718
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
735 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of
Louisiana
Southern and central Mississippi
East Texas
* Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 735 AM until
300 PM CST.
* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
SUMMARY...Several regenerative areas of thunderstorms are expected
to form in the warm sector and shift northward to northeastward over
the watch area through early afternoon, with tornadoes, damaging
gusts and sporadic large hail possible. Though the greater
strong-tornado threat may be later this afternoon and evening, a few
are possible in this region, in the meantime.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Lufkin TX
to 65 miles east of Mc Comb MS. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 717...
AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23025.
...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0718.html
date: 2024-12-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW SEP TO 15 NNE TXK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE FORTHCOMING MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2296. ..GRAMS..12/28/24 ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 717 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC057-081-091-281440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HEMPSTEAD LITTLE RIVER MILLER TXC035-037-063-067-139-143-159-213-217-221-223-251-257-315-343- 349-379-423-425-449-459-467-499-281440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOSQUE BOWIE CAMP CASS ELLIS ERATH FRANKLIN HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS JOHNSON KAUFMAN MARION MORRIS NAVARRO RAINS SMITH SOMERVELL TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0717.html
date: 2024-12-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 717
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
525 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southwestern Arkansas
Extreme southeastern Oklahoma
North-central and northeast Texas
* Effective this Saturday morning from 525 AM until NOON CST.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY...Increasing coverage and intensity of elevated
thunderstorms, with potential for large hail, are expected through
the remainder of the morning, with activity spreading from the DFW
Metroplex vicinity into the Arklatex. A separate tornado threat may
evolve later this morning in or near the southern/eastern parts of
this watch, and would be addressed then and separately.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles north
northwest of Stephenville TX to 10 miles north northeast of
Texarkana AR. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.
&&
AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
25030.
...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0717.html
date: 2024-12-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe storms, with large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes is possible Saturday into Saturday night, from East Texas, across the Lower Mississippi Valley, into parts of the Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow is expected to rapidly amplify over the southern CONUS Saturday, as several southern stream perturbations intensify as they move near the Gulf Coast. A prominent shortwave trough, initial located across the southern OH Valley, will quickly eject northward as a second stronger shortwave approaches from the southern Plains vicinity. A roughly east-west oriented warm front will quickly move inland overnight Friday and into early Saturday in response to increased mid-level height falls and a deepening surface low near the Red River. This will allow for robust moisture return, with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints likely across the lower MS Valley by daybreak. While clouds and precipitation from inland moisture advection may complicate destabilization to some degree, sufficient buoyancy is expected to support numerous strong to severe storms with all hazards possible from East TX and the lower MS valley, into the TN valley from Saturday morning into early Sunday. ...East TX, Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level flow pattern quickly amplifies Saturday, the prominent shortwave trough and a subtle lead wave over the southern plains should rapidly strengthen, taking on neutral to slightly negative tilts by 00z Sunday. As this occurs, increasingly strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread East Texas toward the ArkLaMiss vicinity, where middle 60s F surface dewpoints will become more common. Steepening low/mid-level lapse rates and diurnal heating should allow for moderate destabilization, despite some lingering clouds and isolated elevated storms. Deeper convection is expected to develop early in the period (11-14z) as ascent from the embedded perturbation and main trough move over a pre-frontal confluence axis across East TX/Western LA. A second round of robust convection may also develop across eastern TX later in the afternoon as a Pacific front associated with the surface low over North TX impinges on the warm sector from the west. A mix of semi-discrete supercells and linearly organized bowing segments are expected with sufficient buoyancy/deep-layer shear overlap for storm organization. An initial risk for large hail, especially where low-level flow is somewhat veered, should transition to a risk for damaging winds and tornadoes as 0-1 km SRH increases to 150-300 m2/s2 into mid/late Saturday afternoon with a 35+ kt 850 mb low-level jet. Convection should quickly spread northeast into the lower MS Valley, peaking in intensity through the afternoon and early evening hours. Coincident with an increase in the low-level jet to 45-65 kt and intensifying surface pressure falls, low-level hodographs will expand with 0-1 km SRH of 300-400 m2/s2 likely. This will support the potential for strong tornadoes with any established suppercellular elements. ...Tennessee Valley and Cumberland Plateau... As the upper trough continues to amplify through the day, the warm front will gradually lift north into the southern TN valley by early afternoon. A broad area of cloud cover and perhaps light stratiform precipitation is expected in the presence of strong isentropic ascent along the advancing warm front. This remains the primary uncertainty regarding the northern/eastern extent of the surface-based severe risk later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. While buoyancy/destabilization may be muted, the intensifying upper trough and surface low will favor very strong low and mid-level wind fields supportive of storm organization into Saturday evening and early Sunday. With very large low-level hodographs (0-1 km SRH 300-500 m2/s2) weakly buoyant near-surface based parcels will still allow for some tornado and or damaging wind risk into the overnight hours, especially with any established supercell or bowing structures across parts of AL, TN and western GA. ..Lyons.. 12/27/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-12-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 27 17:36:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-12-27, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast is on track. Some gusty winds are possible across parts of the southern High Plains this afternoon along with low RH. However, above average fuel moisture in the region should preclude a significant fire threat. See the previous discussion for further details. ..Supinie.. 12/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1231 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... Enhanced westerly flow across the central/southern Rockies will lead to a dry/warm downslope flow regime across the southern High Plains this afternoon. Relative-humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will overlap with sustained winds around 10-15 mph (gusting 20-30, locally higher across the higher elevations). Latest guidance suggests fuels in this region will largely not be receptive to fire spread, precluding the need to include any areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-12-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST LA/MS INTO SOUTHWEST AL AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms could occur today across parts of the central Gulf Coast States. ...Central Gulf Coast Region... A compact negative-tilted shortwave trough that has provided occasionally strong thunderstorms to parts of southern MS/southeast LA is tracking away from the Gulf Coast region. Low-level winds are slowly veering/decreasing with time, suggesting the threat of supercell structures and associated severe threat is marginal through mid-afternoon. Another strong upper trough that is now over north TX will graze the same area late this afternoon, possibly resulting in a re-invigoration of convection across southeast MS and southwest AL. The air mass has been slow to recover, with mid 60s dewpoints restricted to areas just a few rows of counties inland. Widespread clouds will also limit destabilization. Locally gusty winds or a brief tornado will remain possible with this renewed early evening activity, but the overall threat appears marginal. ..Hart/Leitman.. 12/27/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-12-26, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0410 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... At least some severe-weather risk is expected on Sunday/Day 4 across the Southeast States as an upper trough shifts east-northeastward from the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys toward the Appalachians. Very strong deep-layer winds will overspread the region, but guidance variability exists regarding the availability and north-northeastward extent of minimal buoyancy, especially with GFS/ECMWF-related guidance depicting the possibility of considerable scattered convection ongoing Sunday morning. Regional areas including northern Florida into southern/eastern Georgia and parts of the Carolinas will continue to be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks as far as Sunday's severe potential, but at least some/low-end severe risk seems probable even with these instability uncertainties. Thereafter, severe-weather potential early next week is currently expected to remain low.