(date: 2024-12-31 07:05:42)
date: 2024-12-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 31 14:25:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-12-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 31 14:25:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-12-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Tue Dec 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Damaging to isolated marginally severe gusts, isolated large hail, and possibly a brief tornado, are possible today from the central Appalachians to parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a progressive shortwave pattern will persist within a broadly cyclonic flow field covering much of the CONUS from the Rockies eastward. The most important of these features for convective potential will be a well-developed shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from a low over IL south- southeastward to western portions of KY and the lower Tennessee Valley region. Though the 500-mb low may not remain closed, the trough will remain strong and shift east-northeastward up the Ohio Valley today, reaching OH, WV and the western Appalachians of VA/NC by 00Z. The trough should pivot over the northern Mid-Atlantic and offshore from the Delmarva Peninsula by 12Z. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low between CMI-MTO, related to the shortwave trough aloft, a cold front arching southwestward across western parts of TN/KY, and a warm front east-southeastward across northeastern KY that will shift northeastward over portions of WV and southern OH through the early afternoon, as the low occludes and moves northeastward. By 00Z, the low should reach the CLE area, with cold front moving eastward across western parts of VA and NC, and warm front moving north up the Atlantic Coast and across the Delmarva Peninsula. An older frontal zone, now well offshore, should continue to weaken, with considerable theta-e advection occurring to its west near the coast. ...Central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic... Episodic lines and clusters of thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across the outlook area today, from the northern Cumberland/southern Allegheny Plateau region eastward toward coastal Delmarva and vicinity, with occasional strong/isolated severe gusts and hail the main severe modes, but with marginal tornado threat as well. Large-scale ascent will spread over this region in the form of strong midlevel DCVA/cooling immediately preceding the trough, as well as the peripheral/ageostrophic influences of the left exit region of a strong 250-300-mb jet, centered from the Ozarks to the western Carolinas. Associated destabilization aloft will offset modest (but diurnally steepening) low-level lapse rates and marginal moisture behind the offshore front. This yields an area of 100-300 J/kg MLCAPE already apparent in objective analyses between RAOBs, over southern IN, despite cool surface conditions. This weakly buoyant regime is forecast to expand and strengthen somewhat (300-600 J/kg) as it moves eastward over eastern KY late this morning into midday. Long, somewhat curved low-level hodographs and strong low-level shear are expected, supporting potential for embedded/low-topped supercells, as well as LEWP/bow features with any linear modes. The area of large-scale lift and accompanying strong-severe convective potential then will shift across WV to VA/MD/DC and the Delmarva region, encountering theta-e advection from a modified post-frontal airmass over the Atlantic. This regime then should move offshore, where even more-extensive convective development is likely overnight. The wind and tornado areas have been shifted south out of most of PA, where the low-level stable/inversion layer should hold, and expanded westward into portions of eastern KY, where surface-based buoyancy will exist as the cold-core region moves overhead. Severe potential probably will be discontinuous across this corridor, and a lack of more-robust buoyancy precludes more than a marginal unconditional severe threat for this outlook cycle. ------------------ ...Epilogue (RE)... This is my final SPC outlook, forecast and shift. With a cyclonically swirling storm of memories, I retire mourning the end of a rewarding era, yet ever grateful, blessed with a career of public service devoted to excellence. For a poor kid from inner-city east Dallas, carrying a passion for tornadoes from earliest awareness, and a relentless drive to research and forecast them, it has been everything the dream promised, and more. I hope the American taxpayers have found my time worth their money. Even through this autumnal transition of life's seasons, I'll stay as inspired as ever by the tempestuous sky above -- to observe, photograph and study it, and keep giving back to the science in some way, as long as physically and mentally able. It just won't be on rotating shifts. The forecasting baton passes to another generation of sharp minds, just as the lead crew in the 1990s did for us "young pups of SELS" in Kansas City. The SPC is in great hands. There isn't enough room here to thank everyone from early childhood through OU, NSSL, NHC, NSSFC/SELS, and SPC -- family, friends, instructors, mentors, students, and colleagues -- but be assured I do. Nothing has granted greater career fulfillment than to deliver severe-weather forecasts with detailed, science-based insights, customized for each situation, shift after shift for over three decades, and to write related research papers. Thanks for reading and using them, any or all. Stay weather-aware! ..Edwards/Grams.. 12/31/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-12-30, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Dec 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A moderate Santa Ana wind event is expected on D2/Tuesday as offshore gradients continue across southern California D1/Monday into D2/Tuesday. Gradients will peak around 5-7 mb Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Sustained north to northeasterly winds 15-30 mph (gusting 30-45 mph, locally up to 55 mph) will overlap minimum humidity around 10-20 percent. Elevated to locally Critical fire weather is likely across portions of the Transverse Ranges. HREF guidance indicates Critical conditions will be mainly confined to the immediate slopes/foothills, which will preclude the need for inclusion of a Critical area at this time. This will be reevaluated in future outlook updates. ..Thornton.. 12/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0726 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0726.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 726 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 945 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 945 AM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of showers and occasional thunderstorms will produce gusty winds and occasional damaging gusts through the early afternoon. An isolated tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Greensboro NC to 50 miles south southeast of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 724...WW 725... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0726.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE VDI TO 25 W CAE TO 20 ENE AVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2318. ..GRAMS..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 724 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-031-043-051-103-109-165-179-183-191-251-267-291440- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN BULLOCH CANDLER CHATHAM EFFINGHAM EVANS JENKINS LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCREVEN TATTNALL NCC003-023-025-035-045-059-071-097-109-119-159-161-179-291440- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER BURKE CABARRUS CATAWBA CLEVELAND DAVIE GASTON IREDELL LINCOLN MECKLENBURG ROWAN RUTHERFORD UNION
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0724.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Georgia Southwestern North Carolina South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 600 AM until 100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The faster-moving northern part of a line of strong-severe thunderstorms will move northeastward across the watch area thriough midday, offering sporadic damaging to severe gusts and potential for a few embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles either side of a line from 35 miles east southeast of Savannah GA to 45 miles north of Greenville SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 723... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0724.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0725 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0725.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 725 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 830 AM EST Sun Dec 29 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle to far northern Florida Southeastern and extreme southern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 830 AM until 300 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A particularly organized segment of an extensive quasi-linear MCS should move across the watch area through midday, interacting with the outflow boundary from the rest of the system. A threat exists for damaging to severe gusts and occasional, embedded, potentially tornadic mesovortices. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles south of Tallahassee FL to 20 miles east northeast of Jacksonville FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 723...WW 724... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Edwards
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0725.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0715 PM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Western and Central Alabama Southeast Louisiana * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF-2 damage possible) and numerous severe/damaging wind gusts are expected this evening through tonight. The threat area will shift eastward across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening, and continue overnight through early Sunday morning over portions of the Tennessee Valley, central Gulf Coast states, and western Georgia. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/pwo.html
date: 2024-12-29, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 723 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW PFN TO 25 WSW MAI TO 45 NE ABY TO 50 SSE AHN TO 15 ENE AHN. ..GRAMS..12/29/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 723 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-079-123-129-133-291240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY MADISON TAYLOR WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC017-019-023-027-071-075-087-091-107-125-131-141-155-163-167- 173-175-185-205-209-235-253-265-271-275-277-279-283-287-301-303- 309-315-317-319-321-291240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEN HILL BERRIEN BLECKLEY BROOKS COLQUITT COOK DECATUR DODGE EMANUEL GLASCOCK GRADY HANCOCK IRWIN JEFFERSON JOHNSON LANIER LAURENS LOWNDES