(date: 2024-11-18 07:34:02)
date: 2024-11-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 18 15:13:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2024-11-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 18 15:13:02 UTC 2024.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2024-11-18, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 18 Nov 2024 14:47:41 GMT
date: 2024-11-18, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2024-11-18, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
198
ACPN50 PHFO 181158
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
200 AM HST Mon Nov 18 2024
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Bedal
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2024-11-18, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2024-11-18, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181129
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
400 AM PST Mon Nov 18 2024
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2024-11-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through much of the extended period with the exception of the southern CA coast on D3/Tuesday. The upper low currently over northern Mexico is forecast to eject into the Plains and the Midwest over the next 48 hours. Widespread rain chances will accompany this features as it shifts northeast. Additionally, an upper trough off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will continue to support widespread rain/snow chances along parts of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest through early next week. As a result, fuels will likely remain unreceptive to fire spread for most locations, though some drying is anticipated from the lower CO River Valley into the central High Plains where ensemble guidance shows relatively low probabilities for wetting precipitation. ...D3/Tue - Southern California Coast... Long-range ensemble guidance continues to trend towards a weaker surface high across the northern Great Basin during the late D2/Mon to early D4/Wed time frame. Consequently, most solutions now show low probability of reaching and/or maintaining a strong offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast (only a 30% chance of seeing an LAX-DAG pressure gradient of -5 mb or less). As a result, confidence in widespread critical fire weather conditions continues to wane. Latest trends suggest that the offshore pressure gradient will likely be maximized between 12-18 UTC D3/Tuesday. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible during this period, but may extend into early D4/Wednesday. However, confidence in prolonged elevated and/or critical conditions extending into D4/Wednesday is sufficiently low to warrant removal of the 40% risk area. ...D3/Tue - Central High Plains... The surface low associated with the ejecting upper trough (currently over northern Mexico) is forecast to reach the upper MS River Valley as it begins to occlude on D3/Tuesday. Westerly low-level winds are expected to intensify across the central Plains in response to the tightening pressure gradient with widespread 15-25 mph winds likely. Downslope trajectories off the northern Rockies may support some degree of drying across the western Dakotas into western NE, though an influx of cooler continental air should modulate RH reductions. However, limited rainfall is expected across this region through mid-week, which may allow for some drying of finer fuels. The potential for fire weather concerns appears too limited at this time given current fuel conditions and the overall RH forecast, but trends will be monitored for a wind-driven fire concern. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2024-11-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe gusts and a few tornadoes. ...20Z Update... ...Southern Plains... General forecast outlined in the previous discussion remain valid, with the cyclone currently entering northwest Mexico expected to continue eastward across northern Mexico before then ejecting more northeastward across the southern High Plains late tonight/early tomorrow morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this system, with 90-100 kt of 500-mb flow spreading across west TX and into southwest OK by early tomorrow. An intense low-level jet will develop ahead of this wave, with 60+ kt at 850-mb likely stretching from the TX Hill Country through central OK by 12Z Monday. Modest low-level moisture is still anticipated ahead of this system. Current surface analysis places the mid 60s dewpoints along and southeast of a line from PVJ in south-central OK to north of DRT in the Edwards Plateau. This area of greater low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward throughout the day and evening, ahead of the approaching wave and associated surface low. Surface analysis also reveals a stationary boundary from END in north-central OK southwestward to just west of INK in the TX Trans Pecos. This boundary will likely provide the favored corridor for surface low progress late this evening and overnight. A strongly forced band of thunderstorm is still anticipated, beginning around 04-06Z in the Permian Basin vicinity, with this band then expected to rapidly move northeastward just ahead of the surface low, reaching central OK by 12Z. Intense low-level kinematic fields will precede this line, with strong flow associated with the mid-level jet as well. Resulting fast storm motion and downward momentum transfer supports the potential for severe gusts, despite the relatively modest thermodynamic environment. Highest probability for severe gusts is over northwest TX and far southwest OK from 09Z to 12Z Monday. A tornado risk will accompany this line as well, with the highest tornado probability in the same location and time as the greatest severe-wind threat. ..Mosier.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-11-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Plains states and Upper MS Valley region on Tuesday, reinforcing surface high pressure and associated cooler temperatures behind a cold front poised to sweep across the OH/TN Valleys into the Southeast. As the primary surface low over the upper MS Valley ejects into Ontario through the day, surface lee troughing should occur along the central Gulf Coast, supporting continued onshore moisture advection. Given a modest, trailing low-level jet aiding in the moisture advection, enough shear and instability along the Gulf Coast may encourage strong to isolated severe thunderstorm development. ...Portions of the central Gulf Coast Region... Surface lee troughing will encourage mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints to advect onshore amid adequate surface heating during the day, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. As storms intensify within a warm-air advection regime, veering/strengthening of the vertical wind profile will support modestly curved hodographs ahead of the storms. Transient supercells may develop from some of the stronger updrafts, with damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado possible. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html