(date: 2024-09-07 07:27:13)
date: 2024-09-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Sep 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of far south-central Colorado into northern/central New Mexico. ...Synopsis... Satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough moving southeastward through the central Rockies, between the upper ridging in place over the western Great Basin and the broad upper troughing across central Canadian and northern Plains/Upper MS Valley. Another shortwave trough exists over the Upper MS Valley. This shortwave trough is forecast to continue progressing eastward through the base broad central Canada/northern Plains trough, moving across the Upper Great Lakes and into eastern Ontario. Recent surface analysis places a surface low associated with this shortwave over Lake Superior, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low through KS and into northeast NM. This front is forecast to progress southward/southeastward as its parent surface low lifts northeastward. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this frontal boundary, but overall severity should be mitigated by modest buoyancy and vertical shear. Greater thunderstorm coverage and severity is anticipated over the southern Rockies as the previously mentioned central Rockies shortwave trough continues southeastward and promotes thunderstorm development. Lastly, a tropical wave just off the TX Coast is contributing to abundant moisture across much of Gulf Coast, with low 70s dewpoints reaching into much of east TX and northern LA, and upper 70s across FL. Precipitable water values over 2" cover much of this region as well. Heavy rain is the primary threat (as indicated by the latest Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook from WPC), but a few water-loaded downbursts capable of damaging gusts are possible from southeast TX and southern/central LA eastward along the Gulf Coast and over the Florida Peninsula. Coverage of these gusts is expected to be sparse and too low to delineate a 5% wind probability area. ...Southern Rockies/southern High Plains... Moderate low-level moisture is anticipated within the post-frontal airmass across the southern Rockies and adjacent southern High Plains this afternoon, characterized by dewpoints in the low to mid 50s across the High Plains and upper 40s across the higher terrain. Even with this modest moisture, the airmass is expected to destabilize, fostered by deep boundary-layer mixing and cool temperatures aloft (i.e. around -10 deg C at 500 mb). Surface easterlies/northeasterlies beneath modest westerlies aloft will contribute to effective bulk shear around 35 kt, which is strong enough for some updraft organization. Isolated hail is possible across the higher terrain with the initially more cellular development. Damaging gusts are expected to be the primary risk thereafter as storms trend towards a more clustered mode and move eastward into the more mixed southern High Plains. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 09/05/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2024-09-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and hail may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of the central Rockies into the northern/central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made to the outlook with this update. Isolated thunderstorms are developing/spreading eastward across the central Rockies this afternoon -- ahead of a positively tilted midlevel trough moving across the region. The strongest storms will be capable of producing marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts. For additional details, see MCD #2047. Across the central Plains into the Upper MS Valley, severe-thunderstorm potential is more uncertain along/behind the cold front this evening into the overnight hours. However, given the potential for isolated instances of severe hail and locally strong/damaging gusts, the Marginal Risk has been maintained across this area. Farther east, clusters of thunderstorms are tracking westward across the central Gulf Coast, in an environment characterized by 2+ inch PW and pockets of diurnal heating/boundary-layer destabilization. Given some banded convection here -- aided by enhanced low-level easterlies -- a couple water-loaded downbursts will be possible. Overall, the severe threat still appears too localized/marginal for 5-percent severe wind probabilities. ..Weinman.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Central Rockies into the central High Plains... Recent satellite imagery reveals a broad shortwave trough currently moving through southern ID and northern NV/UT. This shortwave trough and accompanying cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to continue eastward throughout the day, progressing across WY and northern CO. Modest buoyancy, fostered mainly by cooling mid-level temperatures, is anticipated across WY and adjacent parts of northern CO as the shortwave trough progresses through. Thunderstorm development is expected as the large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough interacts with this buoyancy during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level westerlies will accompany this shortwave trough as well, with the resulting increase in vertical shear supporting the potential for a few more organized/persistent storms. Initially more cellular development across the higher terrain could pose a risk for isolated hail, particularly across south-central WY and north-central CO where the best overlap between the stronger shear and cold mid-level temperatures is expected. Damaging wind gusts are possible as well, particularly as the storms reach the lower elevations of central High Plains where a deeply mixed boundary layer will be in place. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Recent surface analysis places a low over southeast ND, with weak troughing extending southwestward from this low in east-central CO. The primary cold front is west of this surface trough, extending from the low over southeast ND into more of northwest SD and adjacent northeast WY. The surface low is forecast to progress east-southeastward throughout the day, reaching south-central MN by late tonight. The attendant cold front is expected to push southward during the same period, progressing through much of NE by early Thursday morning. Warm mid-level temperatures should preclude thunderstorm development along the surface trough during the afternoon and evening. A few isolated storms are possible during the evening behind the front as the shortwave trough ejects out into the central Plains. Additional thunderstorm development is expected overnight/early Thursday morning across the Upper MS Valley, with some isolated hail possible within the strongest storms.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2024-09-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm potential appears relatively low for Friday, though a few strong storms will be possible from near Lake Erie into parts of the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify as it digs southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Friday. A mid/upper-level cyclone is forecast to develop with time, as a strong embedded shortwave moves southeastward into the base of the trough by Friday evening. A leading cold front is forecast to slow down and weaken across parts of the Ohio Valley, as a reinforcing front moves through parts of the Great Lakes and Midwest. ...Lake Erie/Ohio Vicinity... Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Friday afternoon as it moves through the Ohio Valley. Weak lapse rates and a lack of richer low-level moisture will result in only modest instability, but strong forcing ahead of the approaching trough should permit for some stronger storms to develop Friday afternoon. A well-mixed, inverted-v type thermodynamic profile will support some gusty winds. However, the lack of stronger lower tropospheric flow or greater instability will likely preclude a more widespread damaging wind threat. Nonetheless, if greater instability appears possible, severe probabilities may eventually be warranted. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_1930.html
date: 2024-09-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe storms are possible across portions of northeast New Mexico Thursday afternoon/evening. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify and move southeastward across the Canadian Prairies into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Thursday. To the southwest of this amplifying trough, a weakening shortwave is forecast to move southeastward across the central/southern Rockies into the southern High Plains. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend southwestward from the Great Lakes into parts of the Midwest and central/southern Plains during the afternoon. ...Southern Rockies and High Plains... A concentrated area of thunderstorms are forecast across northeast New Mexico on Thursday as a sharp mid-level shortwave trough advances southeast across the central/southern Rockies and interacts with a pocket of instability in the post-frontal airmass across northeast New Mexico. Some increasing mid-level flow associated with this trough will overspread the region and provide 20 to 25 knots of deep layer shear. This may be sufficient for some storm organization and the potential for severe-wind gusts. Some small hail is also possible, but relatively modest instability/shear may limit the potential for large hail. ...Parts of the Upper Midwest... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period along the frontal zone in northwest Wisconsin. Expect this activity to wane by mid-morning as the low-level jet weakens. Strong height falls will overspread the cold front by mid to late afternoon which should support additional thunderstorm development along the cold front during the afternoon/early evening. Forecast soundings show limited moisture/instability (less than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and modest effective shear (25-30 kts). This could support a few strong to severe storms, but overall, expect the severe-weather threat to remain limited/isolated. ..Bentley.. 09/04/2024
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2024-09-04, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 09/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0108 AM CDT Wed Sep 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country. Breezy conditions will persist across the central Plains ahead of a migratory surface trough. Low-level moisture has begun to advect northward based on early-morning surface observations, and this trend should continue through the day and modulate afternoon RH minimums over the Plains. Areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible across central to southern UT as a cold front pushes across the region, but confidence in prolonged/widespread elevated conditions is limited and should occur over fuels that are only modestly receptive. Dry conditions will persist across the Great Basin and West Coast, but a building ridge over the western CONUS will promote weak surface winds and limited fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 18:01:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 15:50:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/180136.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 011758 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 41A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 800 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 ...HONE TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 178.3W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1320 MI...2125 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Kure Atoll * Midway Atoll A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the broad mean center of elongating Tropical Storm Hone and an extratropical low was located near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 178.3 West. Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today as Hone merges with the extratropical low. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected to resume on Monday. On the forecast track, Hone, or the extratropical low associated with Hone, will be passing near or just west of Kure Atoll near the International Date Line late Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over Midway and Kure Atolls. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Wroe
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/011758.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 01 2024
Areas affected...parts of western and northern New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 011754Z - 011930Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A broken line of storms may produce occasional gusty wind
this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Inhibition has been mostly eroded across western and
northern New York as temperatures have warmed to the upper 70s to
low 80s with mid 60s dewpoints. Expect scattered thunderstorms to
develop along a cold front once it moves east of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario. Storms may be not be that deep given the relatively shallow
thermodynamic profile shown by the RAP forecast soundings. However,
relatively strong flow through the column and a well-mixed boundary
layer may support efficient transport of gusty winds to the surface
within these storms. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
through the afternoon with this threat waning near sunset.
..Bentley/Bunting.. 09/01/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 43357915 43497832 43517714 43907704 44207653 44667583
45167503 45587378 45557370 45137334 44107369 42977513
42497697 42337806 42427885 42657931 43357915
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2041.html
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 15:49:55 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 01 Sep 2024 15:50:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/154955.shtml?cone
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 011500 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 The satellite presentation of Hone has become very ragged overnight, with the low-level circulation center becoming very difficult to locate with much confidence. An 1130z Oceansat-3 pass indicated that the low level center of Hone has shifted west-westward since the previous and appears to be merging with the mid-level low just east of the International Date Line. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from PHFO, SAB, and JTWC, all came in at 2.5 (35 kt), while the objective intensity estimates were similar. As a result, the initial intensity has been held at a perhaps generous 35 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is quite uncertain due to the low-level of Hone being in the process of merging with the mid-level low to the west, and is set at 300/12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue today and tonight along with a decrease in forward speed as Hone merges with a mid-level low to the west. Hone should begin moving northward with an increase in forward speed Monday and Monday night as it moves into a weakness in building mid-level ridges to the northwest and east of the system. A shift back toward the northwest is then expected late Tuesday through Thursday as a low and mid-level ridge builds to the north of Hone. The latest track forecast was adjusted to better align with the latest model guidance and generally follows the TVCE consensus. Hone will be in a relatively favorable environment during the next couple days, with warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. The interaction with a mid-level low, ragged LLCC and entrainment of dry mid-level air should act to minimize the potential for intensification however. Beyond 48 hours mid-level moisture drops off considerably and the latest simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest a loss of deep convection by 72 hours. As a result, the intensity forecast holds Hone as a 35 kt Tropical Storm during the next couple days, with the cyclone expected to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours, and dissipation occurring by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows the latest intensity consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 25.0N 177.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 25.4N 178.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 25.7N 179.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 27.1N 179.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 28.8N 179.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 30.2N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 31.0N 179.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 05/1200Z 31.5N 178.0E 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/011500.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 011459 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Advisory Number 41 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sun Sep 01 2024 ...HONE TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 177.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM S OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1280 MI...2060 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Kure Atoll * Midway Atoll A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 177.7 West. Hone is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north and an increase in forward speed is expected to resume on Monday. On the forecast track, Hone will be passing near or just west of Kure Atoll near the International Date Line late Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over Midway and Kure Atolls. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Jelsema
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/011459.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPA11 PHFO 011459
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
25.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 177.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MIDWAY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KURE 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24)
KURE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/011459.shtml
date: 2024-09-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 011459 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 177.7W AT 01/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 177.7W AT 01/1500Z AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 176.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.4N 178.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.7N 179.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.1N 179.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 28.8N 179.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 30.2N 179.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 31.0N 179.5E...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 31.5N 178.0E...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 177.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 PHFO/HFOTCPCP1...AT 01/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z $$ FORECASTER JELSEMA
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/011459.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sat, 31 Aug 2024 18:47:06 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sat, 31 Aug 2024 15:22:45 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_cp1+shtml/184706.shtml?cone
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA31 PHFO 311758 TCPCP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hone Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 800 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 ...HONE CONTINUES TO MEANDER NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE.... SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 176.2W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Kure Atoll * Midway Atoll * Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Pearl and Hermes Atoll A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by the National Weather Service office in Honolulu Hawaii. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hone was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 176.2 West. Hone is moving very slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through today. A gentle turn towards the west northwest Sunday will transition to a more northerly track Monday and afterward as Hone's forward motion increases a bit. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Tuesday, with gradual weakening expected afterward. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight into Sunday. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible over Midway, Kure and Pearl and Hermes Atolls. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster R Ballard
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP1+shtml/311758.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0666 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0666.html
date: 2024-08-31, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Maryland Southwest Pennsylvania Northwest Virginia West Virginia * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 700 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and move east across the watch area through the afternoon, posing a risk for scattered damaging wind gusts and isolated instances of large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northwest of Altoona PA to 10 miles southwest of Beckley WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26025. ...Bunting
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0666.html
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
712
FOPA11 PHFO 311436
PWSCP1
TROPICAL STORM HONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024
1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 176.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
25N 175W 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
30N 175W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
LISIANSKI 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PEARL/HERMES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MIDWAY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13)
KURE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 14(22) 1(23) X(23)
KURE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER POWELL
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOPWSCP1+shtml/311436.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA21 PHFO 311435 TCMCP1 TROPICAL STORM HONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012024 1500 UTC SAT AUG 31 2024 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 176.0W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 176.0W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 175.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 23.1N 176.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 45NE 20SE 0SW 45NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 24.4N 177.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 25.5N 178.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 26.2N 179.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 28.0N 179.8E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 29.8N 179.0E MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 32.8N 176.7E MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 35.5N 174.9E MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 176.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 PHFO/HFOTCPCP1...AT 31/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER POWELL
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCMCP1+shtml/311435.shtml
date: 2024-08-31, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPA41 PHFO 311434 TCDCP1 Tropical Storm Hone Discussion Number 37 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI CP012024 500 AM HST Sat Aug 31 2024 The nocturnal convective bloom persists along the eastern semicircle of Hone this morning. Deep convection obscured the low level circulation center (LLCC) through most of the night, with the LLCC now emerging from the western edge of the cold cloud cover. Subjective Dvorak satellite current intensity values ranged from 2.0/30 kt to 2.5/35 kt between the three fix centers. UW-CIMSS ADT was 32 kt and, although a few points were rain-flagged, ASCAT-C showed enough winds in the 30 to 32 kt range within the northeast quadrant to justify bumping Hone's initial intensity to 35 kt for this forecast cycle, making this system a tropical storm again. It seems that Hone's forward motion slowed significantly just as the convective bloom obscured the LLCC last evening, causing uncertainty as to what initial motion to assign. With the partial re-emergence of the LLCC from the western edge of cold cloud cover over the past hour, confidence in an initial motion of 315 degrees at 3 kt is higher than it would have been previously. Forecast philosophy remains unchanged. Global models show Hone's LLCC and an upper low less than 300 nm to its north becoming well-aligned in the next 24 hours as the upper feature drifts south, drawing the LLCC toward it. Afterward, the merged system will move slowly west northwestward. Because almost all track guidance wants to pull Hone almost due north initially, in contrast to current motion to the northwest, the forecast track is just to the left of the envelope through 24 hours, with little change made in the track forecast through then. The forecast track from 36 hours through 60 hours was adjusted noticeably to the right to keep it within the guidance envelope, mostly following HWRF, and creating a more pronounced kink in the track at 48 hours as guidance depicts the newly-aligned system transitioning from a west northwest track to an almost due north track. Beyond 72 hours, the forecast track once again closely mirrors the previous one. The environment that Hone will encounter offers far less shear and continued marginally favorable sea surface temperatures over the next 24 to 48 hours, and Hone is forecast to slowly strengthen during this time. Except for HAFS, which still calls for stronger intensification, the intensity guidance envelope is rather tight and well-behaved. The intensity forecast lies comfortably within this envelope, close to TVCN. Hone's intensity will peak by 72 hours at 50 kt, then slowly decrease afterward as it travels across the western North Pacific. After passing south of the northwest Hawaiian Islands, this system is forecast to cross the International Dateline late Sunday night Hawaii time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 22.5N 176.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 23.1N 176.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 24.4N 177.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 25.5N 178.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 26.2N 179.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0000Z 28.0N 179.8E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 29.8N 179.0E 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1200Z 32.8N 176.7E 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1200Z 35.5N 174.9E 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Powell
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCDCP1+shtml/311434.shtml