(date: 2023-12-17 10:02:31)
date: 2023-12-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20Z Update... Lightning has diminished with convection embedded within a band of precipitation, ahead of mid-level troughing slowly progressing across the Great Plains. Stronger mid/upper support and colder air aloft, associated with a remnant embedded low, appear to be shifting northeast of the better low-level moisture return off the northwestern Gulf, and potential for renewed thunderstorm activity may be low in the near term. However, as the trailing flank of the mid-level troughing begins to dig across central Texas, toward the coastal plain, guidance suggests that probabilities for scattered weak thunderstorm activity may increase across parts of eastern/southeastern Texas later this evening or overnight. ..Kerr.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Discussion... A central U.S. upper trough -- flanked by ridging over both eastern and western portions of the country -- will shift slowly eastward today and tonight. In response, very weak surface cyclogenesis will occur, with a low expected to reside over the southern Iowa/northwestern Missouri area early Saturday morning. Ahead of this low, and the associated/trailing weak surface trough/front, very little in the way of moisture return is expected, given the northeasterly/northerly cyclonic flow over the northern and western Gulf of Mexico. As such, an overall lack of buoyancy with this system suggests only occasional/sporadic lightning through tonight -- primarily across the eastern Texas/western Louisiana/Arklatex area. A few flashes may also occur across southern Florida and the Keys later in the period, within easterly low-level flow east of the weak southern Gulf surface low. Elsewhere, thunderstorms are not expected.
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date: 2023-12-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Southern CA... Locally elevated offshore winds and low humidity are possible early Saturday and into early Sunday across parts of southern CA. High pressure over the interior West will continue to support moderate offshore pressure gradients and dry conditions. A few hours of breezy winds greater than 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are possible. However, weak upper-level support and spotty fuels should keep broader concerns limited. Elsewhere across the country, seasonably cool and moist conditions will negate fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 12/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Fri Dec 15 2023/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will deepen across the eastern CONUS as a surface cyclone deepens across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and traverses the Florida Peninsula. Surface high pressure should overspread most of the rest of the CONUS, promoting relatively cooler surface conditions amid poorly receptive fuels, dampening significant wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest this evening, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will strengthen across west Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet, along with large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, will make isolated thunderstorm development possible late this evening into tonight. No severe threat is forecast, and thunderstorms are not expected over the remainder of the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 12/13/2023
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date: 2023-12-12, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z Fire weather potential continues to appear limited for the duration of the extended period. Recent surface observations show a strengthening surface high over the central Plains. This feature will continue to amplify over the coming day as it migrates into the eastern third of the country. Latest water-vapor imagery also depicts an upper disturbance drifting southeast from the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This feature will introduce widespread rain chances across the southern High Plains to the Southeast over the mid to late week period. The combination of weak winds in proximity to the surface high and cool/wet conditions should limit most fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 12/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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