(date: 2023-12-17 11:13:29)
=======(date: 2023-12-17 09:46:13)
date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 17 17:19:02 UTC 2023.
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>>>>>>> 9dc8e4022 (fix: bad merge):2023/weather_2023.50.htmldate: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1106 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023
Areas affected...parts of the coastal Carolinas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 171706Z - 172100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A conditional risk of brief tornadoes or damaging gusts is
forecast today, from the South Carolina upper coast toward coastal
North Carolina. The risk is conditional on air mass recovery, and a
watch may be considered.
DISCUSSION...A surface low will deepen as it moves northeastward off
the SC Coast today, along an existing baroclinic zone which is
currently well offshore. Surface observations show cool air over
land with gusty northeast winds, and this will likely maintain a
decoupled boundary layer which should mitigate tornado and damaging
gust potential in the near term.
Later today, gradual warming is expected as the warm front shifts
north along the coast. As winds veer to east and then southeast, a
warmer and more unstable air mass will then support a risk of brief
tornadoes and damaging gusts, as shear will remain strong along the
warm front. Observational trends will continue to be monitored
closely, along with satellite imagery, to ascertain when a potential
watch may be needed later today.
..Jewell/Goss.. 12/17/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...
LAT...LON 33227967 33697946 34387880 34757814 34987730 34907648
34607644 34627687 34437741 34157776 33787792 33847815
33767866 33447904 33227909 32987932 32807958 32907973
33227967
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<<<<<<< HEAD:archives/2023/weather_2023.50.htmldate: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0722 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EST Sun Dec 17 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Potential for locally damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will gradually increase this afternoon and into this evening, as locally intense thunderstorms shift north-northeastward across the North Carolina Coastal Plain and Outer Banks area. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 110 miles northeast of New Bern NC to 30 miles south of Wilmington NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 18040. ...Goss
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 17 17:51:01 UTC 2023.
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW JERSEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging gusts are possible from the eastern shore of New Jersey into southern New England Monday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are possible along the northern/central California coast. ...Northeast... A strong coastal low, oriented near NJ/DE Monday morning, will continue to modestly deepen as it lifts north/northeast through the period. Very strong deep-layer south/southeasterly flow ahead of the low and the associated shortwave trough will be oriented over the offshore waters and overspreading New England. While this will allow for 50s F dewpoints to spread across parts of southern New England, very moist and warm low/midlevel thermodynamic profiles are forecast. Widespread showers and cloud cover will preclude much heating, and low/midlevel lapse rates will remain poor. As a result, instability will remain meager. Nevertheless, strong ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes and perhaps a stronger convective element or two moving onshore from the New Jersey to southern New England coast. With forecast winds in the 925-850 mb layer well over 50 kt, strong/damaging gusts are possible despite the overall poor thermodynamic environment. ...Northern/Central CA... A shortwave trough will move onshore during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours on Monday. Cool temperatures aloft and strong large-scale ascent may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes through the afternoon hours. ..Leitman.. 12/17/2023
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======= >>>>>>> 9dc8e4022 (fix: bad merge):2023/weather_2023.50.htmldate: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Cool temperature, weak winds and recent/ongoing precipitation over much of the CONUS will keep fire-weather concerns minimal through the forecast period. ..Lyons.. 12/17/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023/ ...Synopsis... A progressive upper pattern will characterize the synoptic environment over the CONUS today, with multiple mid-level troughs traversing the eastern U.S. as a third mid-level trough impinges on the California coastline. Regardless, surface high pressure and associated cooler air will surge southeast across the Rockies toward the Mississippi Valley, with wet conditions likely along the West Coast, mitigating major wildfire-spread concerns across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 17 16:40:02 UTC 2023.
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Recent surface analysis shows a low just off the northeastern Florida/southeastern Georgia coast at this time, which is progged to steadily deepen while shifting north-northeastward through tonight. At this time, what appears to be the most likely track for the low will be to remain just off the South Carolina coast through the daytime hours, and then possibly move just inland across coastal North Carolina or the Outer Banks overnight. North of the low track, widespread/steady precipitation is ongoing, which should reinforce a persistent cool/stable boundary layer inland through the daytime hours. With that said, the favorably strong/veering wind field observed within the northeast quadrant of the low continues to support occasionally rotating cells just offshore. This will continue, along with gradually increasing potential that a couple of these cells will begin moving inland across South Carolina coastal counties northeast of Charleston. While any storms would become increasingly elevated along their inland advance, storms may remain rooted near enough to the surface across immediate coastal counties of northeastern South Carolina -- and then later over eastern North Carolina and in particular the Outer Banks -- to yield risk for a couple of tornadoes, and possibly locally damaging wind gusts. As such, will maintain current delineation of the SLGT risk area just inland across South Carolina for today, and then across eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks area for this evening and overnight. ..Goss/Thornton.. 12/17/2023
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date: 2023-12-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Sun Dec 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible through tonight across the coastal Carolinas. ...Coastal Carolinas through tonight... A deepening cyclone will progress from north FL this morning to eastern NC by 09-12z Monday, in response to gradual phasing of Gulf of Mexico shortwave troughs with a larger-scale trough over the eastern CONUS. Midlevel drying with the passage of a lead shortwave trough and diminished ascent have acted to limit deep convection across FL overnight. Any lingering severe threat will end across southeast FL by mid-late morning as drying occurs from the west and vertical shear continues to weaken. The cyclone will skirt the GA coast during the day and then approach SC this afternoon and NC tonight. A narrow portion of the surface warm sector could spread far enough inland to support some threat for near-surface-based convection across the coastal Carolinas, where vertical shear will be strong. However, poor lapse rates aloft will tend to limit buoyancy in the zone of stronger forcing for ascent where vertical shear will be strongest, and cool shelf waters will likely maintain a shallow stable layer near the coast. Will maintain the outlook area given the conditional potential for isolated damaging gusts and a tornado or two, but it is not clear how much of the potential will be realized inland. ...Northern CA coast... To the east of a closed low over the eastern Pacific, isolated lightning flashes will be possible with embedded/elevated convection. ..Thompson/Broyles.. 12/17/2023
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