(date: 2023-12-24 14:00:48)
date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 24 21:57:02 UTC 2023.
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 24 21:57:02 UTC 2023.
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized severe gusts are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast later this evening into the early morning. ...Central Gulf Coast... Midday guidance along with the 12Z ECMWF suggest potential for weak cyclogenesis near the central Gulf Coast tonight, as a shortwave impulse over TX moves east to the Lower MS Valley before pivoting northeast tomorrow morning. With mid 60s surface dew points already established across the north-central Gulf and far southeast LA, it is plausible that weak surface-based instability will at least brush the central Gulf Coast later tonight. This should become coincident with the trailing portion of a strengthening low-level jet across the Deep South. While deep convection ongoing over the northwest Gulf should largely translate east across the north-central Gulf, this setup may support an embedded supercell or two impinging on/developing over a portion of the central Gulf Coast States. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore.
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023
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