(date: 2023-12-25 14:37:16)
date: 2023-12-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Mon Dec 25 22:30:02 UTC 2023.
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date: 2023-12-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2346
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023
Areas affected...Portions of South-Central North Dakota...central
and eastern South Dakota...and North Central Nebraska
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 252131Z - 260130Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow possible this evening, with
blizzard conditions at times from south-central North Dakota
southward into central South Dakota and north-central Nebraska.
DISCUSSION...A deep surface low located across western Iowa has
begun to occlude this afternoon while bringing warm and moist air
across Iowa and Minnesota into the Dakotas. Aloft, a mid-level low
is stacked back to the southwest with very cold air being funneled
in by strong northwesterly flow across the High Plains into the
Central Plains. Areas of moderate to heavy snow have been ongoing
across eastern Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, with a transition
to accumulating ice/freezing rain to the northeast.
Due to the strength of the surface low, background flow has
increased with the strong mass response with surface winds sustained
at 25-30 mph gusting as high as 40-50 mph. Blizzard conditions have
been observed across central South Dakota with visibility around 1/4
mi and sustained winds at 20-30 mph gusting up to 50 mph. As the
surface low shifts back westward through the evening, strengthening
mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will overspread portions of the
Dakotas into western Nebraska. Warm air overspreading eastern North
Dakota into northeastern South Dakota will lead to a transition from
snow to freezing rain with potential for ice accumulations. The
increased upper-level support across the Dakotas into far northern
Nebraska will aid in formation of snow bands capable of 1"+/hr rates
along with potential for blowing snow and reduced visibility below
1/4 mi with continued strong surface winds. These conditions will
continue to spread westward as the low shifts west through the late
evening and overnight.
..Thornton/Hart.. 12/25/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 42480106 43430210 43880217 44520205 45310195 45890125
46919946 47049925 47499717 46689638 46029630 44159761
43679792 43159838 42649882 42239942 42209951 42160028
42480106
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date: 2023-12-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z The potential for critical fire-weather conditions is low through the extended forecast period. An expansive midlevel low will move gradually eastward from the Middle MS Valley to the central/southern Appalachians from D3/Wednesday through D5/Friday. Along the southern periphery of this feature, strong deep-layer flow will overspread the Lower MS Valley, Gulf Coast, and Southeast. This will promote locally breezy/gusty offshore flow across these areas, though generally cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. While ongoing extreme/exceptional drought suggests fuels may be locally receptive to carrying fires across the region, recent rainfall and the marginal wind/RH combination should limit most fire-weather concerns. Elsewhere across the CONUS, a limited overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions will mitigate fire-weather potential. ..Weinman.. 12/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Mon Dec 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Thunderstorms have largely been relegated to the Dry Tortugas vicinity this afternoon and may remain west to south of the FL Keys into this evening. Thunder potential over most of the FL Peninsula appears rather limited. Some uptick in weak, elevated convection should occur farther north in the southern Appalachians to Savannah Valley vicinity, with sporadic embedded thunderstorms possible after dusk. Poor near-surface lapse rates in conjunction with the trailing portion of 40+ kt 850-mb flow shifting northeast while shrinking in areal extent, all suggest that severe potential remains negligible. ..Grams.. 12/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM CST Mon Dec 25 2023/ A large upper low dominates the weather across the CONUS today, while the primary weather-making shortwave rotates across the Southeast states and Mid-Atlantic region. Scattered thunderstorms are possible from the central Appalachians southward into FL today, with relatively cool/stable near-surface conditions limiting any risk of severe weather. ...FL Keys... The only area of some minor concern is over the middle and lower FL Keys. Radar/satellite imagery show a cluster of strong thunderstorms about 120nm west of Key West. This activity is moving slowly eastward, and will likely affect the Keys late this afternoon and early evening. However, low-level winds are weakening with time, and CAPE values are strong over the open waters compared to farther east near the Keys. Therefore, the risk of severe storms moving inland appears low.
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 24 21:57:02 UTC 2023.
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Southeast... While no severe area is currently highlighted, conditional brief tornado/localized damaging wind potential may become apparent from the FL Panhandle/southeast AL to the GA/SC border area on Monday. A gradually weakening shortwave impulse will move northeast from the Lower MS Valley to the OH Valley, pivoting around a deepening mid/upper low over the central Great Plains. Primary surface cyclone will occlude across parts of the Lower to Mid-MO Valley via a northwest arc through IA. A minor, southern-stream surface wave near the AL/FL Panhandle coast at 12Z Monday should decay with convergence along the cold front waning through the day. The trailing portion of an initially strong low-level jet within the warm conveyor will likewise pivot northeast from AL/western GA/FL Panhandle across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Potential for surface-based destabilization within the warm conveyor should be quite limited inland of the Gulf Coast, with widespread cloudiness and ongoing showers/thunderstorms amid initially poor low to mid-level lapse rates. Meager destabilization should occur during the day between the weakening cold front and the pivoting warm conveyor as the mid-level dry slot overspreads in the wake of the departing shortwave impulse, but this will be accompanied by substantial diminishing of low-level shear. While the most likely scenario is for a nil severe threat, favorable low-level hodographs within the warm conveyor suggests that potential may not be negligible if this can overlap adequate surface-based instability. ..Grams.. 12/24/2023
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a surface low will occlude in the central/northern Plains and shift into the Upper Midwest. This will bring some breezy conditions from the Great Lakes to the Midwest and northern Plains. However, much of this area will either be moist with recent wetting rainfall or too cold to support significant fire spread. Elsewhere, fire-weather concerns will also remain minimal with a strong Arctic high in the Intermountain West and mostly wet fuels across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A upper-level trough will amplify today and eventually develop into a closed low across the central Plains by Monday morning. During this period, a surface low will slowly strengthen as it shifts east along a front in the central/southern Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient will result in breezy conditions across much of the central CONUS. However, wetting rain has occurred or will occur during the day today across most of the region where the strongest winds are expected. Therefore, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-24, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Sun Dec 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...East TX/LA... A negatively tilted upper trough is moving across the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region during this forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of the trough, from TX into AL and the FL panhandle. Surface trajectories will limit the influx of Gulf moisture northward/inland today, making surface-based thunderstorm development unlikely. A strong storm or two might occur from the upper TX gulf coast to coastal LA this afternoon, but any severe activity is expected to remain offshore. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/24/2023
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