date: 2023-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Pacific Northwest... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move inland across the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia on Monday. A surface low is forecast to move northward near the BC coast, with secondary cyclogenesis expected Monday evening in the lee of the Canadian Rockies. A cold front will begin to move inland across the Pacific Northwest Monday morning, and move into parts of the interior Northwest and northern Rockies Monday evening into Tuesday morning. A frontal precipitation band will move through western WA/OR Monday morning, which may contain some weak embedded convective elements. Somewhat more robust convection will be possible Monday afternoon/evening within the post-frontal regime, in closer proximity to the approaching shortwave trough. Steepening low/midlevel lapse rates will support at least isolated thunderstorm potential across western WA and northwest OR. Rather strong low/midlevel flow and cool temperatures aloft may support gusty winds and small hail with the strongest storms, but very weak buoyancy and a tendency for convection to be rather shallow/low-topped is expected to limit severe potential. ..Dean.. 10/15/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2023-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 15 16:52:02 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2023-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 15 16:52:02 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2023-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather conditions are expected to be minimal today. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns remain low across the CONUS today. High pressure will continue to build across the western and central US with troughing across the eastern US. An impulse rotating through the eastern trough will increase northerly gradients across the Great Plains into the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. Northerly breezes will be possible, but generally cool temperatures, higher relative humidity, and moist fuels will keep the risk of fire spread low. Relative humidity across Louisiana may drop as low as 35-40 percent amid sustained winds around 15 mph. Latest fuel guidance suggests fuels within this region are moist from recent rainfall, which precludes the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2023-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An initial wind shift and association convection has shifted south of the FL Keys and into the FL Straits. Farther northwest, the synoptic cold front (denoted by a narrow cloud line) will continue to move southeastward across south FL and the Keys this afternoon into this evening. Lingering low-level moisture and shallow ascent along the front could support isolated thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening, but storm coverage will be rather sparse. Otherwise, a midlevel shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest early Monday, but any threat for isolated lightning flashes will occur after 12z. ..Thompson/Lyons.. 10/15/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2023-10-15, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a positively tilted longwave pattern is expected to persist over most of the CONUS, with ridging from the Desert Southwest across the northern Rockies/High Plains to Hudson Bay. Mean troughing will continue from an elongated cyclone over the Canadian Maritimes southwestward across the Northeast, central/ southern Appalachians and northern Gulf. The associated surface cold front has cleared all of the East Coast, except for a small area of extreme southern FL and the Keys, where weak convergence and a moist boundary layer still may support showers and isolated thunderstorms south of some midlevel stable layers sampled by the 12Z MFL RAOB. Elsewhere, a strong shortwave trough over the northeastern Pacific -- evident in moisture-channel imagery between 140W-150W -- will remain far enough offshore through the period that any associated thunderstorm-favoring destabilization aloft should not move inland in the Northwest until day 2. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 10/15/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0710 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0710.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central into southeast Iowa * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped thunderstorms will form this afternoon along a slow-moving front across central Iowa. The storm environment will favor of mix of multicells and some supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, along with isolated marginally severe hail and wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Fort Dodge IA to 30 miles south of Cedar Rapids IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 18020. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0710.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023
Areas affected...Parts of central IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131712Z - 131845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few brief tornadoes and isolated hail are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A deep-layer cyclone currently centered near the IA/NE
border will move eastward across western/central this afternoon. A
surface front extends northeastward from the low into northwest IA,
then arcs southeastward across central IA into northern MO.
Widespread cloudiness is noted along/ahead of the front, though some
thinning and cloud breaks have recently developed across parts of
north-central and south-central IA.
As pre-frontal temperatures warm through the 60s F within a modestly
moist boundary layer, MLCAPE will increase into the 300-700 J/kg
range. Weak convection has already developed in Pocahontas County,
with additional development expected by early/mid afternoon
southward along the frontal boundary. A band of storms is expected
to evolve by mid afternoon, with modestly favorable effective shear
(generally 30-35 kt) potentially supporting embedded supercell
structures, especially from central into south-central IA.
A combination of modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH and ambient
vertical vorticity associated with the cyclone will support a threat
of a few brief tornadoes this afternoon, both within a
hybrid/marginal supercell environment across central/south-central
IA, and a landspout environment into parts of
north-central/northwest IA. Cool temperatures aloft may also support
isolated hail with the strongest storms. While coverage and
magnitude of the threat may remain relatively limited, tornado watch
issuance is possible this afternoon if confidence in the potential
for multiple tornadoes increases.
..Dean/Thompson.. 10/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42619475 42959474 42939397 42269255 41609231 40939237
40939268 41049319 41499361 41829388 42259436 42619475
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2250.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The risk of fire spread will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday. Building high pressure across the western US will keep winds light where the driest air mass resides, within the southwestern US and southern Plains on Saturday. Pockets of breezy northwesterly flow will be possible across the central Plains and the Great Lakes region. However, cooler temperatures will lead to higher humidity and overall low risk of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 10/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...