date: 2023-10-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 23 02:47:02 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2023-10-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 23 02:47:02 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2023-10-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery early this evening shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northern CA. This feature will move southeast along the CA/NV border by early Monday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this upper-level feature. Farther east, a strengthening central Great Plains LLJ will focus a zone of low-level warm-air advection from eastern KS into IA. Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible tonight within the aforementioned corridor. Surface high pressure centered over the Upper OH Valley and encompassing much of the East will lead to tranquil conditions. ..Smith.. 10/23/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2023-10-22, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0441 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z The extended period will feature a persistent trough in the western CONUS with multiple individual embedded shortwave troughs. The larger scale trough will start to move east by next weekend. However, in the meantime, there will be windy conditions across the Southwest and in the Plains for much of the extended period, first from lee troughing in response to the aforementioned ejecting mid-level shortwave troughs, and then from a strong polar high which will move into the northern Plains later in the week. Gulf moisture is expected to stream north across the Plains through the period which should mitigate fire weather concerns there. A somewhat drier airmass is expected across the Southwest. However, minimum relative humidity is expected to stay mostly above 25-30 percent. Additionally, while fuels have undergone some drying in the past week, they remain above critical dryness. The combination of marginally dry fuels and a marginally dry airmass should preclude fire weather concerns through the period despite the expectation for windy conditions across the Southwest. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2023-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough migrating through broader upper ridging centered over the Midwest will lift northeast from MN/IA through the upper Great Lakes and into southern Ontario on Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period in association with this feature across IA/MN/WI. This activity will shift east into MI during the afternoon/evening. Poor surface heating and weak lapse rates will limit destabilization, and severe storms are not expected. Further west, an upper trough over the Great Basin/CA will develop east/southeast across the western states through early Tuesday morning. As this occurs, modestly enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow is forecast across the southern Plains. Southerly low-level winds will support northward transport of Gulf moisture, and a tongue of low/mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected across much of TX/OK into the Mid-MO Valley. Despite increasing moisture in TX/OK, somewhat warm midlevel temperatures will lead to poor lapse rates, precluding stronger instability. A shortwave impulse migrating through southwesterly flow ahead of the western trough will support shower and thunderstorm development, especially from west-central into north TX and southern OK. However, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 10/22/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
date: 2023-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will move east across portions of the north-central states and the CA/NV vicinity during the period. A surface high initially centered over the middle to upper MS Valley will shift eastward to the central Appalachians. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the central Great Plains in response to a low amplitude mid-level disturbance moving east from CO/WY into the lower to mid MO Valley by mid evening. The northern rim of appreciable low-level moisture will reside across the northwest Gulf Coast this morning with a narrow plume of modest moisture advecting northward during the day. A few weak elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in an area centered on IA overnight. Elsewhere, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Basin northward into the northern Rockies. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/22/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
date: 2023-10-17, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0619 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Thunderstorm potential will be limited to two confined areas within the CONUS. The northern extent of a Gulf of CA/Pacific coastal Mexico lobe of higher PW values should support isolated thunderstorms peaking in the late afternoon across southeast AZ to perhaps as far north as the Mogollon Rim. Weak deep-layer shear and surface temperature-dew point spreads in excess of 40 degrees may foster pulse microbursts capable of locally gusts from 40-55 mph. A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will amplify as it digs east-southeast into the northern Great Plains. Strengthening ascent and moistening near 700 mb should yield scant elevated buoyancy from late afternoon into this evening across central ND to the Upper Red River Valley. Very isolated thunderstorms may form within a developing band of elevated showers. Separately, low-topped showers should also form within a post-frontal regime centered on southeast MT and adjacent border areas during the late afternoon to early evening. Shower downdrafts will further enhance already strengthening gradient winds and likely result in strong gusts over parts of the northern High Plains. Models largely suggest only a sliver of buoyancy at most is anticipated, but aggressive ones infer a low-probability threat of a thunderstorm or two. ..Grams/Jewell.. 10/17/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2023-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar surface high will shift eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians, favoring cool/dry boundary-layer conditions and limited thunderstorm potential across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Farther west, a shortwave trough will cross the northern Rockies/adjacent Plains, while a related cold front sweeps east/southeastward across the northern/central Plains. However, thunderstorms are not expected given limited moisture/instability ahead of the front. Over parts of southeastern AZ, diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates beneath a plume of adequate midlevel moisture will yield a weakly unstable air mass. While large-scale forcing for ascent will be minimal, isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon/early evening given the adequate instability and gradually eroding inhibition. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles could support locally strong gusts, though the weak instability and lack of vertical shear should limit updraft intensity. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 10/16/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2023-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. A shortwave will move across the Pacific Northwest, shifting the western US ridge eastward across the Rockies. A trough across the eastern US will continue to move eastward offshore. A few areas of breezy westerly winds will be possible across southeastern Oregon and southern Montana. Relative humidity will stay above Elevated or Critical thresholds with moist fuels in place, keeping fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2023-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning strikes are possible over parts of Washington state and perhaps southeatern Arizona. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep, mid-level, long-wave trough centered over the Atlantic Coast is forecast to slowly weaken as it consolidates into a broader mid-level low and moves offshore late in the forecast period. In the wake of the large eastern US trough, northerly offshore flow and cool temperatures will dominate the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm chances. To the west, transient mid-level ridging over the Southwest will be suppressed and shift eastward under the influence of an advancing shortwave trough along the border of southern BC. Weak inland advection of a modified eastern Pacific air mass across western and northern WA State may briefly support destabilization sufficient for a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening. However, scant buoyancy (less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) confined within the lowest few km, will limit the potential for strong, organized and persistent updrafts capable of more widespread lightning. A few lightning strikes are also possible over portions of southeastern AZ where strong surface heating and marginal moisture may support a brief thunderstorm. However, coverage appears unlikely to reach 10% and no thunder area will be included. With limited to negligible thunderstorm chances for much of the country, severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 10/16/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0710 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0710.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central into southeast Iowa * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped thunderstorms will form this afternoon along a slow-moving front across central Iowa. The storm environment will favor of mix of multicells and some supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, along with isolated marginally severe hail and wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Fort Dodge IA to 30 miles south of Cedar Rapids IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 18020. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0710.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023
Areas affected...Parts of central IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131712Z - 131845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few brief tornadoes and isolated hail are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A deep-layer cyclone currently centered near the IA/NE
border will move eastward across western/central this afternoon. A
surface front extends northeastward from the low into northwest IA,
then arcs southeastward across central IA into northern MO.
Widespread cloudiness is noted along/ahead of the front, though some
thinning and cloud breaks have recently developed across parts of
north-central and south-central IA.
As pre-frontal temperatures warm through the 60s F within a modestly
moist boundary layer, MLCAPE will increase into the 300-700 J/kg
range. Weak convection has already developed in Pocahontas County,
with additional development expected by early/mid afternoon
southward along the frontal boundary. A band of storms is expected
to evolve by mid afternoon, with modestly favorable effective shear
(generally 30-35 kt) potentially supporting embedded supercell
structures, especially from central into south-central IA.
A combination of modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH and ambient
vertical vorticity associated with the cyclone will support a threat
of a few brief tornadoes this afternoon, both within a
hybrid/marginal supercell environment across central/south-central
IA, and a landspout environment into parts of
north-central/northwest IA. Cool temperatures aloft may also support
isolated hail with the strongest storms. While coverage and
magnitude of the threat may remain relatively limited, tornado watch
issuance is possible this afternoon if confidence in the potential
for multiple tornadoes increases.
..Dean/Thompson.. 10/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42619475 42959474 42939397 42269255 41609231 40939237
40939268 41049319 41499361 41829388 42259436 42619475
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2250.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The risk of fire spread will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday. Building high pressure across the western US will keep winds light where the driest air mass resides, within the southwestern US and southern Plains on Saturday. Pockets of breezy northwesterly flow will be possible across the central Plains and the Great Lakes region. However, cooler temperatures will lead to higher humidity and overall low risk of fire spread. ..Thornton.. 10/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...