date: 2023-10-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 28 01:02:01 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2023-10-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 28 01:02:01 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2023-10-28, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mean mid-level trough will reside over the West and an anticyclone will remain centered over FL. Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a weak disturbance moving east-northeast across the IA/WI vicinity. This mid to upper-level feature will continue into MI tonight and into southeast Canada by early Saturday morning. In the low levels, a cold front over Lower MI extends south-southwest into eastern IL and into central TX. The northern portion of the front will continue sweeping east across the central Great Lakes and parts of the OH Valley. A few thunderstorms will remain possible near the front over the Midwest. Weak buoyancy from the Mid South northward into the Great Lakes (i.e., reference 00z area raobs) will likely limit both storm coverage/intensity through the early morning. ..Smith.. 10/28/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2023-10-27, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A deep upper trough is forecast to continue to amplify across the West Coast trough this weekend. Strong flow aloft will overspread much of the Western US as a cold front moves south out of Canada. Building high pressure will allow for strong offshore winds to develop late this weekend, supporting fire-weather concerns over parts of CA into early next week. ...California... As the upper trough continues to dive south over the West Coast, strong mid-level flow will move over parts of southern CA and the southwest through the weekend and into early next week. Surface high pressure across the interior West and Great Basin will support an offshore pressure gradient over much of southern CA. LAX to DAG gradients around -4 to -7 mb will develop as early as D3/Sunday morning, with hi-res guidance showing widespread winds of 25-40 mph and locally higher gusts possible across parts of the LA Basin. With the downslope trajectories, afternoon RH value should fall to the low teens. The strong winds, low humidity, and somewhat receptive fuels should support several hours of elevated to critical fire-weather conditions D3/Sunday. The strongest winds and resulting fire-weather concerns will linger into D4/Monday as the upper trough slowly drifts off to the east. Flow aloft and the strong offshore pressure gradient will quickly weaken late D4/Monday into D5/Tuesday as the main trough shifts to the east. While localized fire-weather concerns may linger into midweek, the lack of stronger aloft should keep winds relatively light and terrain focused. Gusty northerly winds are also possible over parts of the central Valley of northern CA D3/Sunday. The strong northerly flow will gradually shift south and weaken as it moves toward southern CA through the day. However, gusty downslope winds and lower humidity may support a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions before winds weaken and the air mass moderates into D4/Monday. The overall forecast pattern is expected to turn more zonal through the remainder of the extended forecast period. A much colder air mass and broad area of precipitation should keep fire-weather concerns low over much of the central CONUS. Gusty winds may linger over parts of the Southwest where little precipitation is expected. However, confidence in widespread fire-weather conditions is low through next week. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/fire_wx/
date: 2023-10-25, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH TO SOUTH-CENTRAL TX... ...SUMMARY... Very isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado are possible across parts of north to south-central Texas, mainly this afternoon through early evening. ...Southern Great Plains... A persistent, but generally decaying swath of showers and thunderstorms extends across western OK through the Edwards Plateau of TX this morning. This eastern extent of this activity has generally been outpacing the bulk of 00Z to early morning CAM guidance. Extensive stratus exists ahead of this morning's convection and will limit diabatic surface heating. This combined with modest mid-level lapse rates will likely maintain only weak MLCAPE north of the Rio Grande Valley, despite the presence of rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints. Persistent large-scale ascent will maintain regenerative showers and thunderstorms atop the large-scale convective outflow, further yielding gradual eastward progression of the outflow through the day. Despite the limited surface heating, some diurnal uptick in thunderstorm intensity will probably occur this afternoon. Given mid to upper-level winds largely paralleling the large-scale outflow boundary, appreciably organized convection appears unlikely. Still, adequate low-level shear will exist for moderately enlarged hodographs with a low-probability threat of a tornado and/or localized severe wind gust. Heavy rain should be the primary overarching threat (see WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook). ...Central Great Plains... A surface low exists over west-central KS, anchoring to a slowing cold front that extends to northeast KS before bisecting IA. 06Z NAM and 09Z RAP guidance both attempt to stall and then advance the trailing portion of this front northwest as a warm front across southeast NE by this evening. Near and south of the surface front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of central/eastern KS into west-central MO. Given this activity along with extensive stratus ahead of and behind the frontal boundary, destabilization near the front will likely be quite limited today. While multiple rounds of thunderstorm development should persist through tonight, probabilities of severe hail and wind appear to be very low (sub 5 percent). ..Grams/Goss.. 10/25/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2023-10-25, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The strong trough in the Great Basin will eject into the central Plains late on Thursday. A strong lee cyclone will develop during mid to late afternoon near the CO/KS border. Areas of stronger surface winds are possible within the lee of the Rockies in southeastern Colorado as well as northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Fuels appear most receptive to fire within southeast Colorado. Given the position of the surface low, the strongest winds are likely to remain within and near terrain features where RH will most likely be a bit higher than in the Plains to the east. Farther south, RH below 20% is less certain and there is some potential for precipitation to further reduce marginal fuel receptiveness. Overall, fire weather concerns are expected to remain locally elevated as a result. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2023-10-23, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm activity will likely persist across parts of the southern/central Plains toward the Mid-MS Valley through Day 6/Sat. This activity will be aided by a prevailing moderate southwesterly flow regime as a large-scale trough slowly digs across the western U.S. while a pronounced upper ridge is maintained across the Southeast and Atlantic coast. A weakening upper shortwave trough over the southern Plains will lift northeast across the Mid-MS Valley to the upper Great Lakes on Day 4/Thu. This may focus some low-end potential for a few strong storms. However, destabilization is likely to remain limited due to widespread cloudiness and precipitation. By Days 5-6/Fri-Sat, a cold front will sag southeast across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile stronger lee cyclogenesis is possible over the central/southern High plains as the western trough begins to shift east. This may support some potential for strong storms across the southern Plains vicinity by Day 6/Sat, but how much destabilization can occur and overlap with favorable shear and strong ascent remains too uncertain to include probabilities. By the end of the period, the western upper trough will spread east into the Plains and a strong cold front will surge east across the central CONUS, limiting severe potential as boundary-layer moisture become confined to the Gulf Coast states.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/
date: 2023-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2023 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough migrating through broader upper ridging centered over the Midwest will lift northeast from MN/IA through the upper Great Lakes and into southern Ontario on Monday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period in association with this feature across IA/MN/WI. This activity will shift east into MI during the afternoon/evening. Poor surface heating and weak lapse rates will limit destabilization, and severe storms are not expected. Further west, an upper trough over the Great Basin/CA will develop east/southeast across the western states through early Tuesday morning. As this occurs, modestly enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow is forecast across the southern Plains. Southerly low-level winds will support northward transport of Gulf moisture, and a tongue of low/mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected across much of TX/OK into the Mid-MO Valley. Despite increasing moisture in TX/OK, somewhat warm midlevel temperatures will lead to poor lapse rates, precluding stronger instability. A shortwave impulse migrating through southwesterly flow ahead of the western trough will support shower and thunderstorm development, especially from west-central into north TX and southern OK. However, severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 10/22/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
date: 2023-10-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will move east across portions of the north-central states and the CA/NV vicinity during the period. A surface high initially centered over the middle to upper MS Valley will shift eastward to the central Appalachians. Southerly low-level flow will strengthen across the central Great Plains in response to a low amplitude mid-level disturbance moving east from CO/WY into the lower to mid MO Valley by mid evening. The northern rim of appreciable low-level moisture will reside across the northwest Gulf Coast this morning with a narrow plume of modest moisture advecting northward during the day. A few weak elevated thunderstorms are forecast to develop in an area centered on IA overnight. Elsewhere, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Great Basin northward into the northern Rockies. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/22/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
date: 2023-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar surface high will shift eastward from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians, favoring cool/dry boundary-layer conditions and limited thunderstorm potential across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Farther west, a shortwave trough will cross the northern Rockies/adjacent Plains, while a related cold front sweeps east/southeastward across the northern/central Plains. However, thunderstorms are not expected given limited moisture/instability ahead of the front. Over parts of southeastern AZ, diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates beneath a plume of adequate midlevel moisture will yield a weakly unstable air mass. While large-scale forcing for ascent will be minimal, isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon/early evening given the adequate instability and gradually eroding inhibition. Inverted-V thermodynamic profiles could support locally strong gusts, though the weak instability and lack of vertical shear should limit updraft intensity. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 10/16/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2023-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS today. A shortwave will move across the Pacific Northwest, shifting the western US ridge eastward across the Rockies. A trough across the eastern US will continue to move eastward offshore. A few areas of breezy westerly winds will be possible across southeastern Oregon and southern Montana. Relative humidity will stay above Elevated or Critical thresholds with moist fuels in place, keeping fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2023-10-16, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated lightning strikes are possible over parts of Washington state and perhaps southeatern Arizona. However, severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep, mid-level, long-wave trough centered over the Atlantic Coast is forecast to slowly weaken as it consolidates into a broader mid-level low and moves offshore late in the forecast period. In the wake of the large eastern US trough, northerly offshore flow and cool temperatures will dominate the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm chances. To the west, transient mid-level ridging over the Southwest will be suppressed and shift eastward under the influence of an advancing shortwave trough along the border of southern BC. Weak inland advection of a modified eastern Pacific air mass across western and northern WA State may briefly support destabilization sufficient for a few thunderstorms late this afternoon into the early evening. However, scant buoyancy (less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) confined within the lowest few km, will limit the potential for strong, organized and persistent updrafts capable of more widespread lightning. A few lightning strikes are also possible over portions of southeastern AZ where strong surface heating and marginal moisture may support a brief thunderstorm. However, coverage appears unlikely to reach 10% and no thunder area will be included. With limited to negligible thunderstorm chances for much of the country, severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 10/16/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS FOR WATCH 0710 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0710.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 125 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central into southeast Iowa * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered low-topped thunderstorms will form this afternoon along a slow-moving front across central Iowa. The storm environment will favor of mix of multicells and some supercells capable of producing a few tornadoes, along with isolated marginally severe hail and wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Fort Dodge IA to 30 miles south of Cedar Rapids IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 18020. ...Thompson
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0710.html
date: 2023-10-13, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2250
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023
Areas affected...Parts of central IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 131712Z - 131845Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A few brief tornadoes and isolated hail are possible this
afternoon.
DISCUSSION...A deep-layer cyclone currently centered near the IA/NE
border will move eastward across western/central this afternoon. A
surface front extends northeastward from the low into northwest IA,
then arcs southeastward across central IA into northern MO.
Widespread cloudiness is noted along/ahead of the front, though some
thinning and cloud breaks have recently developed across parts of
north-central and south-central IA.
As pre-frontal temperatures warm through the 60s F within a modestly
moist boundary layer, MLCAPE will increase into the 300-700 J/kg
range. Weak convection has already developed in Pocahontas County,
with additional development expected by early/mid afternoon
southward along the frontal boundary. A band of storms is expected
to evolve by mid afternoon, with modestly favorable effective shear
(generally 30-35 kt) potentially supporting embedded supercell
structures, especially from central into south-central IA.
A combination of modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH and ambient
vertical vorticity associated with the cyclone will support a threat
of a few brief tornadoes this afternoon, both within a
hybrid/marginal supercell environment across central/south-central
IA, and a landspout environment into parts of
north-central/northwest IA. Cool temperatures aloft may also support
isolated hail with the strongest storms. While coverage and
magnitude of the threat may remain relatively limited, tornado watch
issuance is possible this afternoon if confidence in the potential
for multiple tornadoes increases.
..Dean/Thompson.. 10/13/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...
LAT...LON 42619475 42959474 42939397 42269255 41609231 40939237
40939268 41049319 41499361 41829388 42259436 42619475