(date: 2023-11-05 13:02:41)
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Track, Points, and Wind Swath. Shapefile last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:35:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep192023_best_track.zip
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:35:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/best_track/ep192023_best_track.kmz
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:35:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep192023_fcst_033.zip
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:34:55 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP192023_033adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:34:47 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep192023_5day_033.zip
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:34:18 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:34:18 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/203418.shtml?cone
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 200 PM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 Just after the issuance of the previous advisory, Pilar's center popped out from beneath the convective overcast and is now located at least 150 n mi to the southwest of an ongoing cluster of deep convection. Subjective Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB are now down to 2.0/30 kt and 2.5/35 kt, respectively, and objective estimates have fallen to between 35-40 kt. Based on these data, Pilar's initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt. Strengthening westerly to southwesterly shear is already taking its toll on Pilar, and atmospheric conditions are only expected to become more hostile over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low end of the guidance, most closely following the SHIPS, LGEM, and GFS solutions, and shows Pilar becoming a remnant low by 36 hours. Since the storm remains over warm waters around 29 degrees Celsius, the forecast allows for the possibility of convective redevelopment near the center tonight or on Monday. But if this does not occur, Pilar could become post-tropical as early as tonight. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate in about 3 days. With the center becoming more apparent earlier this morning, it's clear that a westward motion has continued (now estimated to be 275/9 kt). The dynamical models are not handling Pilar's current motion well at all since nearly all of them show an immediate northwestward turn, and as a result, the NHC track forecast is along the left side of the guidance envelope and leans toward the shallow Trajectory and Beta model (TABS), especially in the short term. This new prediction is significantly west of the previous forecast due to the adjusted initial position, and accounting for Pilar's recent motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 10.6N 114.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/052033.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 052033
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/052033.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…PILAR UNRAVELING… …COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY… As of 2:00 PM MST Sun Nov 5 the center of Pilar was located near 10.6, -114.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/052032.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052032 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 2100 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 114.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 113.9W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 11.1N 115.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.7N 116.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 13.7N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 114.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/052032.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Issued at Sun, 05 Nov 2023 20:32:33 GMT. This is only a prototype and the file format may change without notice.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP19/atcf-ep192023.xml
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk area along the Pacific Northwest coast. See discussion below for forecast details. Otherwise, the 10 percent general thunderstorm area has been removed from the eastern Dakotas and MN. Thunderstorm chances appear most likely near the end of the period further east across northeast WI/northern Lake Michigan. Deeper moisture and greater, though still modest, instability will be in place ahead of the eastward progressing surface low, supporting a few lightning flashes. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Sun Nov 5 19:54:01 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Nov 5 19:54:01 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2023-11-05, from: Central Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
457
ACPN50 PHFO 051741
TWOCP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Nov 5 2023
For the central
North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones
are expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Shigesato
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2023-11-05, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
100 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2023
For the North
Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Roberts
NNNN
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. In addition, a continuation of strong westerly/downslope flow across the central Rockies will favor lee troughing over the adjacent High Plains. As a result, locally dry/breezy conditions are expected over parts of eastern NM into the TX South Plains and the I-25 corridor in southern CO. While fine fuels will continue to dry out today, the overall fire-weather risk appears too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... As a strong mid-level jet continues to drift south through the day on Monday, some dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across Nevada. Dry conditions are expected across much of the Southwest. However, winds remain light in this region which should alleviate most fire weather concerns. There may be some increase in initial attack across Nevada, but due to currently moist fuels, no large fires are anticipated. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected from the Southeast into the Carolinas. However, the new large fire threat should remain minimal due to light winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 051712
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1000 AM PST Sun Nov 5 2023
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active
Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on
Tropical
Storm Pilar, located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected
during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Roberts
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Pacific Northwest into parts of the northern Rockies, as well as over Lower Michigan, on Monday. ...Synopsis... Fast, mostly zonal/low-amplitude flow will persist across parts of the CONUS (stretching from CA through the central Rockies/Plains into the Midwest) on Monday. The 500 mb jet max along the Pacific coast will begin to shift southward over CA after 00z as a shortwave upper trough begins digging along the coast. Strong deep-layer flow will continue to transport moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft will foster weak instability, and orographic influences will further aid in isolated thunderstorm activity. However, severe potential is expected to remain limited. Further east, a surface low over the Upper Midwest early Monday will develop east/northeast toward southern Quebec by Tuesday morning. A cold front will shift east across the upper Great Lakes vicinity. The front will stall across the central Plains and Mid-MS Valley as persistent low-level warm advection/southerly flow maintains northward moisture transport into the Ozark Plateau. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the surface low/cold front across parts of Lower MI where meager instability and cold temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes. Further south, despite surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s F and weak instability, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 11/05/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track. In addition to the fire-weather concerns described below, dry/breezy conditions are expected across parts of eastern NM into the western TX Panhandle, and gap-flow areas along the I-25 corridor in southern CO. Strengthening westerly/downslope flow and diurnal heating west of a lee trough/dryline will yield 10-15 percent RH this afternoon. These dry conditions, coupled with 15-20 mph sustained surface winds (locally higher), could lead to localized fire-weather concerns. However, marginally receptive fuels and the localized nature of the threat preclude Elevated highlights. Farther east, northerly surface winds and related continental trajectories down the FL peninsula will aid in dry boundary-layer conditions (25-30 percent RH) across northern/central FL this afternoon. While sustained surface winds around 10 mph should generally mitigate the fire-weather risk, locally elevated conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 11/05/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Sun Nov 05 2023/ ...Synopsis... An elongated upper-level jet will extend from the eastern Pacific into the central Rockies today. A weak mid-level shortwave is expected to cross the Rockies today which will assist in cyclogenesis across the Plains. The majority of strong winds will be where fuels remain moist and relative humidity remains high. Some dry and breezy conditions are expected across southeast Wyoming, beneath the stronger mid-level jet, but fuels in this region are moist and therefore, fire weather concerns should remain minimal. An extended dry spell across the Southeast and into the Carolinas continues to cure fuels in the region. Fuels are starting to reach critically dry levels in spots, but winds should remain light for the remainder of this weekend and into early next week. Therefore, some increase in initial attack is likely, but winds should remain too light for a greater threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2023-11-05, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Sun Nov 05 2023 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF WESTERN OR AND THE FAR NORTHERN CA COAST... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado or two, isolated damaging winds, and small hail will be possible this afternoon into tonight over parts of western Oregon and the far northern California coast. ...Western OR and far northern CA coast... Minor expansion of the level 1 risk with this outlook as a long-duration, low-probability tornado/wind threat remains apparent beginning around midday. Observational imagery depicts a series of embedded shortwave troughs moving generally eastward towards the Pacific Northwest coast today into tonight, with relatively prolific lightning production amid several convective clusters. A feed of conditionally unstable low to mid-level lapse rates and meager buoyancy (200-300 J/kg SBCAPE) will favor low-topped convection and occasional lightning flashes over land this afternoon into tonight as the waves progress inland. Low to mid-level wind profiles will strengthen somewhat, yielding sufficient hodograph length and low-level curvature for a few low-topped supercells. These cells will be capable of producing a brief tornado or two, isolated strong gusts, and small hail up to nickel size. The longest duration threat should exist along the coast, mainly in OR with a gradual north to south shift towards far northern CA tonight. The eastern extent of the low-probability severe threat into parts of the Willamette Valley should be confined from mid-afternoon to early evening. ..Grams/Wendt.. 11/05/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Shapefile last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 15:23:02 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/wsp_120hrhalfDeg_latest.zip
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 14:38:53 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP192023_032adv_TRACK.kmz
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Initial and Forecast Surface Winds. Shapefile last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 14:38:44 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep192023_fcst_032.zip
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
KMZ last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 14:38:13 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/api/EP192023_032adv_CONE.kmz
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
Forecast Track, Cone of Uncertainty, Watches/Warnings. Shapefile last updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 14:37:58 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis/forecast/archive/ep192023_5day_032.zip
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
5-Day Uncertainty Track last
updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 14:37:36 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last
updated Sun, 05 Nov 2023 15:22:33 GMT
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep4+shtml/143736.shtml?cone
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051436 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192023 800 AM MST Sun Nov 05 2023 Pilar's cloud pattern has degraded a bit this morning, and a recent SSMIS microwave image shows that mid-level circulation and deep convection have decoupled to the northeast of the low-level center. Still, the initial intensity remains 45 kt, possibly generously, based on the latest Dvorak CI numbers and objective satellite estimates. Although deep-layer shear is diagnosed in the SHIPS model as being low, global model analyses suggest that stronger mid-level southwesterly shear is occurring beneath the outflow level. Therefore, some gradual weakening is likely over the next day or so. After 24 hours, deeper-layer shear begins to increase to the east of a trough, which should cause Pilar to weaken faster through midweek. The cyclone is forecast to lose organized convection and degenerate into a remnant low in about 2 days, and then dissipate into a trough by day 4. Pilar has slowed down and turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of 285/7 kt in response to a mid-level trough extending southwest of the Baja California peninsula. The storm is forecast to turn toward the northwest in about 24 hours as it approaches the trough, and continue on that heading until it dissipates in about 4 days. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous prediction and lies between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 10.8N 112.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/051436.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
FOPZ14 KNHC 051436
PWSEP4
TROPICAL STORM PILAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023
1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PILAR WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
15N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSEP4+shtml/051436.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
…PILAR TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD… As of 8:00 AM MST Sun Nov 5 the center of Pilar was located near 10.8, -112.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/051436.shtml
date: 2023-11-05, from: Eastern Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
376 WTPZ24 KNHC 051436 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192023 1500 UTC SUN NOV 05 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 112.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 112.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 11.3N 113.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 12.1N 114.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 13.1N 115.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.6N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.0N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.3N 119.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 112.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMEP4+shtml/051436.shtml