(date: 2023-11-22 08:43:10)
date: 2023-11-22, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The current D1 Fire Weather Outlook remains on track with no updates needed. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 11/22/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the US, fire-weather concerns are low in the wake of broad precipitation from the departing eastern US trough. Shortwave ridging over the West Coast will slowly weaken as an upper low moves south across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Weak high pressure will persist over the central US, keeping winds light, with the exception of some stronger offshore gusts over southern CA early in the day. At the same time, a cold front and an accompanying Arctic air mass will being moving south across the northern Rockies and Plains. Much colder temperatures and snow are forecast to develop there late into D2/Thursday. The cooler temperatures, weak winds, moderate RH should keep fire-weather concerns limited across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
date: 2023-11-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 22 16:39:01 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
date: 2023-11-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Coastal North and South Carolina... Extensive precipitation continues in the vicinity of a cold front currently approaching the NC coast as of 16z. Transient areas of higher reflectivity denoting somewhat stronger updrafts have been observed earlier this morning in the vicinity of New Bern, Jacksonville and Morehead City, however overall storm structures remain disorganized. Large scale ascent will increase in the vicinity of the cold front and a pre-frontal confluence zone as an upper-level trough moves steadily towards the mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon. Weak inland buoyancy (MLCAPE locally 750 J/kg) and 40 kts of westerly shear may prove sufficient for a couple of stronger storms through early afternoon, especially in the immediate coastal waters, however the overall severe threat over land appears to have diminished. As a result, the Marginal Risk has been removed with this outlook. Elsewhere, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will exist in advance of the front over the FL Peninsula, otherwise generally stable conditions should preclude thunderstorms over most of the CONUS. ..Bunting/Flournoy.. 11/22/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
date: 2023-11-22, from: Eastern Pacific Basin GIS Data
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 22 Nov 2023 15:37:41 GMT
date: 2023-11-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023
Areas affected...northern Maine and northeastern New Hampshire
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 221450Z - 221845Z
SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snowfall, with rates up to 1-1.5 inches
per hour, are possible for the next few hours across northern Maine
and northeastern New Hampshire.
DISCUSSION...Heavy snowfall rates have been observed this morning
across portions of northern Maine. This activity is associated with
a surface cyclone currently analyzed along the southern New England
coast. The cyclone should continue to gradually deepen throughout
the morning due to differential cyclonic vorticity advection (ahead
of a mid-level shortwave trough) and low-level coastal baroclinity
as it moves east-northeastward. 12z GYX/CAR soundings exhibited
strong veering in the lowest ~3 km AGL, indicative of widespread
low-level warm-air advection. Temperatures aloft in the lowest 3 km
AGL are nearly isothermal and below freezing, except nearer to the
coast where surface temperatures rising into the 40s F are observed.
Farther inland, the continued northward moisture flux atop colder
surface conditions could contribute to periods of heavy snowfall
(1-1.5 inches per hour) for the next few hours.
..Flournoy.. 11/22/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 44307029 44606929 45106840 45656787 46916786 47196816
47096881 46596959 45767021 45257067 44887117 44427133
44177094 44307029
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2286.html
date: 2023-11-22, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2023 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE OUTER BANKS... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and localized damaging-gust threat are possible this morning across portions of eastern North Carolina and the Outer Banks. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern will remain in place through the period, except for a split-flow regime around a cut-off low over northwestern MX. Farther northeast, a nearly closed 500-mb low was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the Mid-South, anchoring an intense shortwave trough that extended south-southwestward over parts of LA. The low and trough are pivoting eastward and should cross the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians today, reaching the NC/SC Piedmont by 00Z. The perturbation then should race offshore. At the surface, a cold front was analyzed at 11Z from NJ to a frontal wave over north-central NC, then across central SC, eastern GA, the FL coastal-bend area, and northeastern Gulf. The front is expected to move offshore from NC around 17-18Z, while crossing parts of north FL. The front should reach central/southwestern FL around 00Z, and move off south FL and the Keys by 12Z. ...Eastern NC... A marginal tornado and severe-wind threat remains over this area for a few more hours, especially ahead of the front, and perhaps until convection along the front passes. See SPC mesoscale discussion 2285 for near-term details. The approaching shortwave trough and related mass response may increase both low-level lift and large-scale ascent over the area through midday, while maintaining somewhat veered but enlarged low-level hodographs (as seen in the 12Z MHX RAOB), along with moisture transport/theta-e advection near the coast. Meanwhile, strengthening mid/upper winds will help to offset some veering of surface flow in maintaining favorable deep shear for supercells, and/or organized line(s) of convection with embedded areas of at least transient rotation. Messy convective mode and lack of greater buoyancy (due to weak deep-layer lapse rates) over land will be limiting factors for severe potential. ..Edwards/Broyles.. 11/22/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html
date: 2023-11-22, from: Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221150
TWOEP
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
400 AM PST Wed Nov 22 2023
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Central East
Pacific (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with
an area of low
pressure located well south-southwest of the
southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has not become
better organized since
yesterday. Environmental conditions appear
marginally conducive for
some gradual development of this system
during the next few days
while it drifts generally northward.
Environmental conditions are
forecast to become less conducive
for development by this weekend or
early next week.
*
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…30 percent.
* Formation
chance through 7 days…low…30 percent.
$$
Forecaster
Reinhart
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac
date: 2023-11-22, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
700 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2023
For the North
Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central
Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to
develop along a frontal
boundary over the central subtropical
Atlantic in a day or so. This
non-tropical low is forecast to
move southeastward across the
central subtropical Atlantic over
warmer sea surface temperatures
during the next few days, and
environmental conditions could allow
for this system to gradually
acquire tropical or subtropical
characteristics. A subtropical or
tropical storm could form by the
latter part of this week or this
weekend, as the system turns
northeastward by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.
* Formation
chance through 7 days…medium…50 percent.
Forecaster
Kelly
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc
date: 2023-11-22, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
000
ACPN50 PHFO 221147
TWOCP
Tropical
Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu
HI
200 AM HST Wed Nov 22 2023
For the central North
Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical cyclones are
expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster
Almanza
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac
date: 2023-11-22, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 22 Nov 2023 15:37:41 GMT
date: 2023-11-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Nov 21 05:00:25 UTC 2023.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/
date: 2023-11-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 350 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeastern Louisiana Southern and Central Mississippi * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 350 PM until 1100 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move eastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail. The threat for strong tornadoes will likely persist with any sustained supercell. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Natchez MS to 45 miles north northeast of Pine Belt MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 711... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Gleason
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0712.html
date: 2023-11-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW HEZ TO 55 NNE MCB TO 45 E GWO. ..LYONS..11/21/23 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 712 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC033-037-063-077-091-103-105-117-121-125-210340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-019-023-029-031-035-037-061-065-067-069-073-075-077- 079-085-091-099-101-103-109-113-121-123-127-129-147-157-159- 210340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CHOCTAW CLARKE COPIAH COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LINCOLN MARION NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0712.html
date: 2023-11-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0847 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023
Areas affected...southern Mississippi into southwest Alabama
Concerning...Tornado Watch 712...
Valid 210247Z - 210445Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 712 continues.
SUMMARY...A tornado or two remains possible this evening over
southern Mississippi, with a few damaging gusts possible as well.
The severe risk may eventually spread into parts of southwest
Alabama later tonight.
DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms including a few supercells
currently stretch east-central MS southwestward into southwest LA.
Deep-layer shear remain favorable to sustain cells this evening,
with effective SRH maximized over central MS currently.
Persistent southerly winds in the lower 2 km will continue to aid
moisture advection, with upper 60s F dewpoints spreading north
across southwest AL ahead of the ongoing MS storms. A somewhat
stable air mass exists east of a batch of warm advection showers now
forming over southwest AL, and this general zone may be as far east
as the main severe risk gets tonight.
As cells continue east across MS and approach the AL state line,
additional watches may be considered.
..Jewell.. 11/21/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...
LAT...LON 31389080 31788989 32128918 32448848 32428803 32258787
31668765 31318778 31048803 30738909 30669006 30669082
30809105 30979112 31139108 31389080
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2279.html
date: 2023-11-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, a couple of which may be strong, scattered damaging thunderstorm winds, and isolated large hail remain possible tonight across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...01z Update... Primary change to 20z outlook is to lower severe probabilities along the cool side of the progressive cold front. Upper low centered over southeast KS continues its slow eastward progression toward southern MO. As a result, high-level diffluent flow has strengthened over the Gulf States. This appears partly responsible for a corridor of severe deep convection that currently extends from eastern LA into central MS. Within this corridor, scattered supercells are observed, at least a few of these are potentially tornadic. 00z sounding from JAN exhibited modest MLCAPE (~800 J/kg) with very strong surface-6km shear (70kt), and 0-3km SRH around 350 m2/s2. Some additional air mass recovery is expected immediately downstream of this activity into western AL as primary surface low lifts northeast into the OH Valley. While the primary dynamic forcing will gradually shift north, southern portions of a strong LLJ will shift east overnight which should allow the aforementioned corridor of severe to advance across MS into western AL. ..Darrow.. 11/21/2023
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
date: 2023-11-21, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
STATUS REPORT ON WW 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BPT TO 15 N POE TO 25 NNW HEZ. ..SQUITIERI..11/20/23 ATTN...WFO...JAN...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-019-025-029-035-039-053-059-065-079-097-107- 210040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL EVANGELINE JEFFERSON DAVIS LA SALLE MADISON RAPIDES ST. LANDRY TENSAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ws0711.html
date: 2023-11-20, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 PM CST Mon Nov 20 2023 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Shortwave ridging across the central U.S. will give way to a trough digging into the Southwest towards the end of this week. Thereafter, model guidance suggests broad troughing will develop across much of the CONUS into next weekend. Differences in the upper-level pattern grow large beginning next week. At the surface, a cold front will move into the northern/central Plains late this week. A secondary push of cold air is expected to shove the front farther south by early next week. High pressure will again become more prominent in the West this weekend. ...Southern High Plains... Some dry and windy conditions are possible this Thursday as a weak surface low develops as the synoptic trough advances eastward. With temperatures being cooler due to the earlier passage of a cold front, RH values appear marginally low and winds may not be overly strong. Coupled with fuels generally being unreceptive, fire weather concerns are not likely to be more than locally elevated. ...Southern California... Offshore flow is expected to return to the region this coming weekend into Monday. Pressure gradient forecasts suggest potential for near-critical meteorological conditions. Upper-level wind support appears weak to modest. With dry conditions expected in the interim, it is possible that some fire weather concerns could develop. Fuel moisture trends will continue to be monitored. Confidence in critical fire weather remains too low for highlights this far in advance. ..Wendt.. 11/20/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...