(date: 2023-12-01 19:51:00)
date: 2023-12-01, from: NOAA Weather Forecasts
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains on Sunday as a mid-level trough moves southeast through the central Rockies and overspreads strong mid-level winds and the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Currently fuels are not favorable for fire spread given recent rainfall in the region. However, dry conditions and sunny skies today and Saturday could lead to fine, dormant fuels becoming more receptive. However, at this time, that seems unlikely. Beyond Sunday, a mid-level ridge becomes well established across the central CONUS. This will result in some dry and breezy conditions across the eastern CONUS, but temperatures will be cold and fuels will be moist. Therefore, there will be no fire weather concerns. This pattern will bring several wet storm systems to the Pacific Northwest and mostly dry conditions from southern California across the Southwest and into the southern High Plains. This may lead to drying of some fine fuels, especially in the southern High Plains, but winds should be light. Therefore, fire weather concerns are minimal. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-12-01, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL
TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Honolulu HI
800 PM HST Thu Nov 30 2023
For the
central North Pacific…between 140W and 180W:
No tropical
cyclones are expected during the next 7 days.
The central
North Pacific hurricane season officialy ends today,
November 30.
The is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather
Outlook of
the 2023 central North Pacific Hurricane Season. Routine
issuance
of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1,
2024.
During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather outlooks will
be
issued as conditions warrant.
$$
Forecaster
Bohlin
NNNN
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date: 2023-12-01, from: Central Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclones
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 02 Dec 2023 02:31:10 GMT
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date: 2023-12-01, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
1000 PM PST Thu Nov 30 2023
For the eastern North
Pacific…east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the
2023 eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of
the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During
the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued
as
conditions warrant.
$$
Forecaster
Cangialosi
NNNN
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date: 2023-12-01, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2294
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Far southeast TX and southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 010052Z - 010245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A spatially limited threat for a tornado should persist
along a portion of the northwest Gulf Coast this evening.
DISCUSSION...A deep convective cluster has become confined to the
far southeast three counties of TX (Chambers, Jefferson, and
Orange). This convection has struggled to organize beyond sporadic
attempts at lower-end/transient mid-level rotation. The overall
thermodynamic environment, which has been the primary mitigating
factor to severe weather thus far, might become slightly more
conducive to generating a surface-based supercell as temperatures
have warmed into the upper 60s near/just south of this activity
along the immediate coast. This should gradually translate east
through the rest of the evening into southwest LA, improving upon
the nil instability sampled in the 00Z LCH sounding. While the
low-level wind profile has been in the process of strengthening over
the past few hours, resulting in increasingly enlarged hodographs,
confidence remains low that sustained supercell development will
occur as depicted in the 23Z RRFS compared to the negligible signal
in the 00Z WoFS.
..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...
LAT...LON 30249413 30369376 30349328 30249298 30089289 29909290
29769299 29739308 29679349 29599407 29549447 29649457
29699457 30249413
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date: 2023-11-30, from: Graphical Tropical Weather Outlooks
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami
FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023
For the North
Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical
cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the
off-season,
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
conditions
warrant.
$$
Forecaster
Cangialosi
NNNN
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2291
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Northeast Texas into far southwestern Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 301844Z - 302045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe hail, and perhaps
damaging wind gusts, should increase through the mid-afternoon hours
across northeast Texas and portions of far southwestern Oklahoma.
Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, the coverage and intensity of
convection has increased across central to northeast TX as lift
within a warm advection regime and ahead of an approaching upper
wave increases. While much of this convection is well displaced from
a narrow plume of surface-based buoyancy stretching from the TX Gulf
coast into central TX, MUCAPE across northeast TX has steadily
increased to around 1000 J/kg amid warming/moistening within the
925-850 mb layer. Observed storm motions and a lack of apparent
low-level mesocyclones further suggest that this convection is
rooted above the surface, but elongated hodographs above 2 km
(featuring effective bulk shear values near 40 knots), should
support storm organization with an attendant risk of isolated large
hail. Cooling cloud top temperatures and an uptick in lightning
counts over the past 15-30 minutes suggest convection is beginning
to realize this environment, so an increasing hail threat seems
probable (though clustered storm modes may inhibit the overall
threat). Recent hi-res guidance, including HRRR-based SCRAMM
solutions and WOFS ensemble output, appears to have picked up on
this trend and shows increasing potential for isolated hail across
northeast TX over the next several hours. While the signal for
severe winds is comparatively weaker, a few damaging gusts will be
possible. Regardless, the overall severe threat should remain too
limited to warrant watch issuance.
..Moore/Thompson.. 11/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 31409742 31779765 32809746 33529748 33949761 34369566
34179495 33879449 33059425 32399443 31749489 31529539
31409742
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 302000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The only changes with the 20z update were to trim the western edges of the outlook area based on latest observation trends and location of current convection. Widespread cloud cover and scattered convection has limited heating, and combined with poor low-level lapse rates, low-level inhibition is limited surface-based storm development. Some stronger storms may still develop this evening near the Sabine River as the surface cold front tracks southeast. However, overall severe potential will likely remain somewhat subdued due to poor thermodynamics despite favorable vertical shear. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL).
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will persist across the southern Rockies, favoring continued breezy downslope flow over the southern High Plains. Similar to Day 1/Thursday, marginal RH (25-30 percent) should mitigate most fire-weather concerns here. Farther west, surface high pressure will build into the Great Basin, yielding an offshore pressure gradient over southern CA. While breezy/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions (primarily over parts of Santa Barbara, Ventura, and Los Angeles Counties), fairly cool surface temperatures will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Southeast TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301759Z - 302000Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The tornado threat may gradually increase with time
through the day. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing
is uncertain.
DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
southeast TX within a low-level warm-advection regime, with recent
satellite and radar trends indicating an increase in storm intensity
southwest of Galveston Bay. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are gradually
streaming northward across the region, though widespread cloudiness
and increasing precipitation will continue to limit heating and
destabilization through the afternoon.
The timing and extent of surface-based supercell development this
afternoon remain uncertain, and may continue to be limited by weak
low-level lapse rates and buoyancy. However, it remains possible
that consolidation of the stronger ongoing elevated convection may
result in transient supercell development, and there is also some
potential for a supercell or two to develop offshore and move inland
later this afternoon. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as
noted on the TIAH/THOU VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk
if any mature supercells can evolve with time. Tornado watch
issuance is possible sometime this afternoon, if observational
trends begin to support imminent supercell potential.
..Dean/Thompson.. 11/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...
LAT...LON 28639647 29129651 29409613 29869520 30139443 29829409
29559411 29319446 29099484 28849533 28689568 28549599
28439619 28369631 28639647
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... A low-level warm advection regime will persist across the central Gulf Coast/Southeast vicinity on Friday. This is in response to a midlevel shortwave trough and surface low moving across the Midwest. A trailing cold front extending from the low across eastern/southern TX early in the period will shift slowly east toward the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley vicinity. Mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints will develop northward across MS/AL through the day. Showers and cloud cover will limit heating and the overall lapse rate environment will remain poor. This will result in mainly weak destabilization as far north as the I-20 corridor, though greater instability (to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) will remain confined to the coastal vicinity. Nevertheless, vertically veering wind profiles and effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will support at least transient organized cells. Stronger forcing for ascent will remain focused north of the region, with low-level confluence along the effective surface front contributing to bands of showers/thunderstorms shifting east through the period. Given shear profiles conditionally supporting supercells, but a rather modest thermodynamic environment, will maintain the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk with some southward adjustments based on latest forecast guidance. ..Leitman.. 11/30/2023
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST TX INTO SOUTHERN LA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms/tornadoes are possible this afternoon through tonight from southeast Texas into southern Louisiana. Farther north, isolated hail and strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Northwest Gulf coast and southern Plains through tonight... Thunderstorms are forming this morning over southeast TX from Matagorda Bay northeastward through the Houston area to Toledo Bend reservoir. The convection appears to be driven by low-level warm advection, as well as a subtle/lead speed max ejecting aloft, in advance of the primary shortwave trough over NM. Observed and forecast hodographs (with substantial length and curvature) across southeast TX look favorable for right-moving supercells with some tornado potential. However, with widespread cloud cover and warm advection being the primary mode of storm initiation, the updrafts may be rooted slightly above the ground. Thus, the convection may not take full advantage of the shear profiles, compared to a more favorable scenario where fully surface-based storms formed in a warmer environment upstream and moved into the environment expected across southeast TX/upper TX coast this afternoon/evening. Regardless, there will be some potential for supercells and a few tornadoes given the strong low-level shear in a moistening/gradually destabilizing environment, with the aforementioned caveats related to poor low-level lapse rates. This threat will slowly increase across southeast TX/upper TX coast through the afternoon and continue through tonight while spreading eastward into southwest/south central LA. Farther northwest, elevated thunderstorm development is expected from central/north TX into southern OK, in the zone of ascent preceding the primary shortwave trough that will begin to move east-northeastward this afternoon from NM toward OK and north TX. The strongest of these storms will pose some threat for marginally severe hail based on some steepening of midlevel lapse rates and relatively long hodographs aloft. A narrow zone of buoyancy rooted near the surface may develop later this afternoon from western north TX into extreme southwest OK, near the primary surface cyclone. However, the main forcing for ascent will be east/northeast of this zone by late afternoon, and forecast hodographs reflect low-midlevel wave passage with a pronounced veer-back signature relatively close to the ground (as low as 1 km AGL). ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/30/2023
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes or additions made. Please see the previous forecast below for more details. ..Squitieri.. 11/30/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough accompanied by strong deep-layer westerly flow will lift northeastward from the southern Rockies into the Middle MS Valley. At the same time, an attendant surface low will track east-northeastward from NM across north TX and OK. Along the southern periphery of the surface low, a tight pressure gradient and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft will yield 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts) over portions of southeast NM, the TX Trans-Pecos, and TX South Plains. While these winds could lead to locally elevated fire-weather conditions, marginal RH (25-30 percent) and limited fuels should generally mitigate the threat. Farther east, breezy/gusty south-southwesterly surface winds are expected from parts of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley -- along the western periphery of an expansive surface high off the Carolinas coast. While 30-40 percent minimum RH should temper the fire-weather threat, locally elevated conditions are possible owing to the breezy winds over receptive fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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date: 2023-11-30, from: NOAA tornado/severe thunderstorm watches, mesoscale discussions, convective outlooks, fire weather outlooks
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0704 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today especially over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes will be possible, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Farther north, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible across parts of East/North Texas and southern Oklahoma. ...Central/Eastern Texas and Louisiana... A progressive southern-stream shortwave trough centered over Arizona/New Mexico in the predawn hours will continue eastward toward the southern High Plains, before ejecting more northeastward toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley tonight, with surface cyclogenesis in a similar southwest/northeast-oriented corridor today. As this occurs, an increasingly moisture-rich maritime warm sector will spread inland along the middle/upper Texas coastal plain toward east-central Texas, although source-region trajectories have been somewhat deleteriously augmented, at least temporally, by overnight convection that developed over the western Gulf of Mexico. As additional low-level moistening (65-70F surface dewpoints) occurs, confluence/convergence should increase within the broadening warm sector across southeast/east-central Texas. Curved/relatively elongated hodographs will exist today, such as noted in the 12z observed sounding from Corpus Christi, TX, where 0-1 km SRH was around 180 m2/s2, although a flow weakness and a residual capping layer were both noted around 700 mb. Regardless, hodographs will further lengthen as 1-3 km AGL (850mb/750mb) southwesterly winds strengthen this afternoon. This will support an increasing potential for supercells into midday/afternoon across southeast/perhaps east-central Texas, with associated potential for a few tornadoes aside from thunderstorm wind damage and possibly some hail. The potential for severe storms including a tornado risk should continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves across southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ...North Texas/Oklahoma... Farther north, convection will tend to be elevated with a more isolated severe risk in the form of hail and possibly locally damaging winds. However, even with limited moisture, a few stronger near-surface-based low-topped storms could materialize across western north Texas/western Oklahoma in vicinity of the surface low/triple point, where a very steep lapse rate environment will exist. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/30/2023
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